economic outlook orlando, fl january 11 th, 2011

Economic Outlook

Orlando, FL

January 11th, 2011

U.S. Forecast Are we past the gravy boat and

getting into the meat and potatoes of this recovery?

The recovery appears to be gaining momentum

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stimulus QEII Extension Bush Tax Cuts, new payroll

tax cuts and investment stimulus

U.S. Forecast Tectonic Forces Impacting

Consumers:

Pent-up Demand, Rising Incomes

An upward force on consumer spending

Lost Wealth, Labor Market

Downward force on spending

U.S. Household Wealth(Trillions of $)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1

2010 Q3

Total Assets 71.6 77.6 78.6 65.8 63.1 68.8

Financial Assets 43.3 48.1 50.6 41.4 39.9 45.7

Net Worth 59.5 64.1 64.2 51.5 48.9 54.9

Home Equity 13.2 12.8 10.3 6.9 6.0 6.4

U.S. Economic Outlook

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

GDP% Change, Annual Rate 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 3.1

Consumer Price Index% Change, Annual Rate 1.5 2.8 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9

Consumer Sentiment68.3

71.3 74.7 75.8 77.2 78.9

Consumption% Change, Annual Rate 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.1 3.0 2.6

1312111009080706050403020100999897

140.0

135.0

130.0

125.0

120.0

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)

Total Nonfarm Employment

U.S. Forecast

1312111009080706050403020100999897

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)

Unemployment Rate

U.S. Forecast

A look at the Florida housing data:

November 2010 Snapshot

Realtor Sales Median Sales Price

Region or MSANovember

2010November

2009%Chg

November2010

November2009

%Chg

STATEWIDE 11,900 13,961 -15 $132,700 $139,300 -5

Orlando 1,867 2,292 -19 $127,300 $137,100 -7

Miami 679 455 49 $171,500 $184,800 -7

Pensacola 263 330 -20 $134,200 $150,500 -11

Jacksonville912 1,101 -17 $144,700 $151,600 -5

Tampa-St. Petersburg 2,060 2,282 -10 $125,000 $139,100 -10

Florida Sales Report – November 2010Single-Family, Existing Homes

A look at the housing data:

January 1994–November 2010

Florida Forecast In 2010 the recovery began, we finished

some repairs, loaded up and pushed back from the gate and slowly taxied to the runway

2011 is our runway We are cleared for takeoff As year progresses we will pickup speed

Job growth doesn’t takeoff until 2012 and 2013

Turbulence Demographics hinder recovery Housing market woes weigh Budget shortfalls: State & local government

13121110090807060504030201009998

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

Florida Real Gross State Product(% change year ago)

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast

13121110090807060504030201009998

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

Florida Housing Starts(thousands)

Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast

13121110090807060504030201009998

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)

FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast

13121110090807060504030201009998

8500.0

8000.0

7500.0

7000.0

6500.0

6000.0

Florida Employment(Thousands)

Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast

RegionPopulation Growth

Average % Chg Rank

Florida 0.9 ---

Deltona 0.1 8

Gainesville 0.3 7

Jacksonville 1.0 4

Lakeland 1.3 2

Miami 0.8 5

Naples 1.1 3

Ocala 1.8 1

Orlando 1.3 2

Palm Bay 0.5 6

Pensacola 0.5 6

Tallahassee 0.3 7

Tampa 0.8 5

2010-2013 Averages;Q4 2010 Forecast

RegionEmployment Growth

Average % Chg Rank

Florida 2.2 ---Deltona 1.3 6

Gainesville 1.0 7Jacksonville 2.1 3

Lakeland 1.4 5Miami 1.7 4Naples 2.2 2Ocala 1.4 5

Orlando 2.5 1Palm Bay 0.3 8Pensacola 1.4 5

Tallahassee 1.0 7Tampa 2.2 2

2010-2013 Averages;Q4 2010 Forecast

13121110090807060504030201009998

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate(percent)

FL Unemployment RateOrlando Unemployment Rate

Orlando Metro Forecast

13121110090807060504030201009998

1150.0

1100.0

1050.0

1000.0

950.0

900.0

850.0

800.0

Orlando Payroll Employment(Thousands)

Orlando Metro Forecast

2010-2013 Averages;Q4 2010 Forecast

ORLANDO

Sector% Average Annual

Growth

Professional & Business Services 7.6Education-Health Services 3.0Leisure & Hospitality 1.9Manufacturing 1.5Other Services 1.4Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.1Construction & Mining 1.1Financial 0.7Information 0.6State & Local Government 0.4Federal Government -0.5

Sean M. SnaithSean M. Snaith, Ph.D.

Director Director

Institute for Economic CompetitivenessInstitute for Economic Competitiveness

(407) 823-1453(407) 823-1453

Sean@SeanSnaith.comSean@SeanSnaith.com

WWW.IEC.UCF.EDUWWW.IEC.UCF.EDU

Thank you