economic outlook orlando, fl december 20 th, 2011

Economic Outlook

Orlando, FL

December 20th, 2011

U.S. Forecast Gone Wilde

Oscar Wilde 1854-1900

U.S. Forecast Are We Experiencing a Dorian

Gray Recovery?

Are the Sins, Transgressions and Policy Missteps During, and in the Wake of, the Great Recession Appearing on the Visage of the U.S. Economy?

U.S. Forecast Lost Wealth and Languishing

Labor Market

A Downward force on consumer spending

In 3rd Quarter Wealth Contracted as Financial Asset Values Declines

U.S. Household Wealth(Trillions of $)

2005 2006 2007 20082009 Q1*

2011 Q3

Total Assets 71.3 78.6 79.5 66.6 62.8 71.1

Financial Assets

42.9 49.0 51.4 42.2 39.6 47.7

Home Equity 13.2 12.8 10.3 7.0 6.1 6.2

Net Worth 59.1 65.1 65.1 52.4 48.7 57.3

U.S. Economic Outlook

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

GDP% Change, Annual Rate 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.8 1.7 1.4

Consumer Price Index% Change, Annual Rate 5.2 4.1 3.1 1.1 1.2 0.6

Consumer Sentiment 73.1 71.9 60.6 60.3 67.6 70.7

Consumption% Change, Annual Rate 2.1 0.7 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.3

U.S. Forecast

141312111009080706050403020100999897

140.0

135.0

130.0

125.0

120.0

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)

Total Nonfarm Employment

U.S. Forecast

141312111009080706050403020100999897

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)

Unemployment Rate

A look at the Florida housing data:

October 2011 Snapshot

Realtor Sales Median Sales Price

Region or MSAOctober

2011October

2010%Chg

October 2011

October 2010

%Chg

STATEWIDE 13,755 12,145 9 $131,200 $136,600 -4

Fort Myers-Cape Coral

938 1,002 -6 $102,100 $89,100 15

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay

521 482 8 $106,800 $97,600 9

Lakeland-Winter Haven

281 246 14 $104,300 $94,200 6

Pensacola 296 273 8 $142,000 $141,200 1

Ocala 259 252 3 $80,300 $79,700 1

Orlando 2,136 1,822 17 $127,800 $130,800 -2

Florida Sales Report – October 2011Single-Family, Existing Homes

Florida Sales Report – October 2011Single-Family, Existing Homes

Realtor Sales Median Sales Price

Region or MSAOctober

2011October

2010%Chg

October 2011

October 2010

%Chg

STATEWIDE 13,755 12,145 9 $131,200 $136,600 -4

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton

918 723 27 $184,900 $221,200 -16

Jacksonville 943 841 12 $124,100 $141,000 -12

Miami 769 546 41 $174,600 $199,100 -12

Gainesville 120 100 20 $154,00 $174,000 -11

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater

2,207 1,923 15 $123,800 $137,900 -10

Orlando 2,136 1,822 17 $127,800 $130,800 -2

A look at the housing data:

January 1994–October 2011

Florida Forecast

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast

14131211100908070605040302010099

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

Florida Gross State Product(% change year ago)

FL Gross State Product

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast

14131211100908070605040302010099

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

Florida Housing Starts(thousands)

Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast

14131211100908070605040302010099

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)

FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2011 Forecast

14131211100908070605040302010099

8200.0

8000.0

7800.0

7600.0

7400.0

7200.0

7000.0

6800.0

6600.0

Florida Employment(Thousands)

Wage & Salary Employment

RegionPopulation Growth

Average % Chg Rank

Florida 1.4 ---

Deltona 0.6 9

Gainesville 0.8 8

Jacksonville 1.4 3

Lakeland 1.4 3

Miami 1.3 4

Naples 1.8 2

Ocala 1.3 4

Orlando 1.9 1

Palm Bay 1.1 6

Pensacola 1.0 7

Tallahassee 1.3 4

Tampa 1.2 5

2011-2014 Averages;Q4 2011 Forecast

RegionEmployment Growth

Average % Chg Rank

Florida 1.7 ---Deltona 1.8 3

Gainesville 0.8 7Jacksonville 1.9 2

Lakeland 1.2 6Miami 1.6 4Naples 1.6 4Ocala 1.8 3

Orlando 2.0 1Palm Bay 0.7 9Pensacola 1.3 5

Tallahassee 0.6 8Tampa 1.9 2

2011-2014 Averages;Q4 2011 Forecast

Orlando Metro Forecast

14131211100908070605040302010099

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate(percent)

FL Unemployment RateOrlando Unemployment Rate

Orlando Metro Forecast

14131211100908070605040302010099

1100.0

1050.0

1000.0

950.0

900.0

850.0

Orlando Payroll Employment(Thousands)

OrlandoPayroll Employment

2011-2014 Averages;Q4 2011 Forecast

ORLANDO

Sector% Average Annual

Growth

Professional & Business Services

3.7

Leisure & Hospitality 2.8Education-Health Services 2.7Trade, Transportation & Utilities

1.9

Manufacturing 1.3Construction & Mining 1.3Other Services 0.8Information 0.8Financial 0.5State & Local Government 0.4Federal Government -3.1

Sean M. SnaithSean M. Snaith, Ph.D.

Director Director

Institute for Economic CompetitivenessInstitute for Economic Competitiveness

(407) 823-1453(407) 823-1453

Sean@SeanSnaith.comSean@SeanSnaith.com

WWW.IEC.UCF.EDUWWW.IEC.UCF.EDU

www.facebook.com/seansnaith www.facebook.com/seansnaith

Twitter: @seansnaithTwitter: @seansnaith

Thank you