economic growth in tokugawa japan ( 徳川幕府・江戸時代 1600-1868)

Economic Growth in

Tokugawa Japan ( 徳川幕府・江戸時代 1600-1868)

Michael Smitka

October 2009

Warren Wilson College

Issues

• was Japan poor? -- standard of living

• was the economy static? -- growth process versus political process

• institutional, other legacies

– How hold together / integrate an empire

• Curiosity: merely understanding Edo-era (1600-1868) Tokugawa hegemony

Models

• Not for today! – you’re not all econ people!– Solow one-sector model

• Output as function of – technology– inputs of Kapital, Labour– diminishing returns

– Lewis-Fei-Ranis two-sector model: agriculture, urban• population growth can eat up gains

– hence agriculture is important

• also core source of “industrial” inputs

• Both highlight Malthus: demographics in a traditional, low savings-cum-investment economy

Other factors besides “hard” tech

• organizational & institutional change are both underrated– “Smithian” growth via specialization and trade:

“classical” growth in all senses of the word– government provision of infrastructure, other

public goods– development of business networks and accepted

practices in markets: institutional infrastructure

Demographics

Low Population Growth Central!

• population growth can swamp positive factors

• indeed, for most of human history standards of living changed little

• how about Japan? -- and if not, why?– Late marriage led to low fertility– Lots of evidence of conscious family planning!

Shifts in Family Structure

Average for Selected villagesSuwa Region, modern Nagano Prefecture

Avg. Household Size Avg Couples per HouseholdNishiko Yamaura Nishiko Yamaura

1671-1700 7.87 8.55 1.97 1.831701-1750 6.14 9.93 1.41 2.341751-1800 4.66 6.94 1.32 2.051801-1850 4.22 4.73 1.25 1.371851-1870 4.31 4.48 1.20 1.30

Population Growth Rates

Region 1798 1804 1828 1834 growth 1846‘98-’46Kinki 93.5 93.5 0.0%Tokai 100.1 106.6 6.5%Kanto 85 86.6 1.9%Tohoku 86 88.7 3.1%Tozan 106.1 110.1 3.8%Hokuriku 105.3 117.6 11.7%San'in 118.8 120 129.9 132.7 11.7% 124.8 4.0%San'yo 106.8 109.9 119.8 121.8 14.0% 120.2 9.4%Shikoku 111.7 114.9 123.8 126.1 12.9% 126.8 10.4%Kyushu 105.3 107.3 111.3 112.2 6.6% 113.8 6.1%

1721 = 100Kinki, Tokai, Kanto, Tohoku, Tozan all fell. 48 yearsHokuriku slow growth selected regions,

Basic Historical Overview

• breakdown of old Muromachi order• continual warfare during 1500s,

• large, musket-using armies made samurai obsolete and were equal to anything the Spanish had

• but fielding 100,000 armed troops takes money

• Symbol of economic growth• not possible before late 1500s• spread of irrigated rice, other new crops (cotton)• civil engineering techniques from China enabling much

more irrigation

Area of Indica

(short-grain)

Rice Cultivation

–early 1700s

–darker hatching indicates greater

cultivation of indica rice

–

Geopolitical context

• 1540: arrival of Francis Xavier & diffusion of muskets

• Legitimate fears of invasion– Colonization of Philippines– Weakening & Collapse of Ming China

• End of endemic war / unification under Oda Nobunaga & Toyotomi Hideyoshi

• Trade in silver for silk: no bulk goods

Tokugawa Ieyasu (1600)

• Tokugawa shogunate organized in 1603 – Tokugawa Ieyasu & allies won final battle in 1600

– Only controlled 25% of country directly

– Large “tozama” han (countries) never conquered

– How to maintain the peace?• Foreign affairs• Sankin kotai - hostages, alternate attendance in Edo• Separate samurai from farmers

• Compare with how Chinese rulers held together their various empires!

The two 250’s

• multiple “kuni” (country?!) – each headed by a semi-autonomous “daimyo” (lord)

– variations in laws, economic structure

– National cadastral survey was basis of land tax

• roughly 250 political-economic units– Most extremely small

– Samurai moved to cities: forestalls peasant revolts

– Peasants disarmed

• Peace for 250 years!– Europe has never managed that

Mid-16th Century Han(“countries”)

Uesugi ImagawaMōri HōjōTakeda ŌtomoShimazu Chōsokabe

1664 Kuni ( 国 countries)

Growth stimulus?

• Tokugawa control system had:– implications for macroeconomic resource flows

in a two-sector context– implications for commercialization and

monetization of the economy

• Lewis two-sector model: forced flows?– Attendance in Edo (Tokyo) forced development

of financial system and logistics

Roadto

Edo

江戸

(Tokyo)

Government role

• the Edo “bakufu” fostered navigation– port and lighthouse development

– maps etc. all by around 1720

• formal financial markets promoted– rice futures market in Osaka by 1720

– transferring money in place of in-kind taxes

– insurance markets (esp. casualty)

– local (rural) finance by 1800s

1685Japan Sea Route Pending

Shipping Routes after 1720

1791Full Route with Ports & Distances

Market-oriented economy

• especially intense development in several regions– cash-crop farms around Osaka (farmers bought food!)

– large urban consumer market

• commercial elite for whom political advancement was foreclosed (cf. English Dissenters)

• education spread.– ukiyoe were for mass-market (wedding presents…)

– lots of agricultural handbooks - 200+ titles in print

Osaka Merchant District

http://rarebook.ndl.go.jp/pre/servlet/pre_wa_fit.jsp;jsessionid=2419EDC4E5EBB686E3E2EDCC618A6D3A

蚕養図会画本宝能縷 1739

Specialization by the “kuni”(export products)

• Silk, cotton, salt, lumber, paper, fish

• Some regions largely industrial

• Seasonal “proto-industry” often accompanied by

regional migration

• Both men & women active in wage labor outside

the home

Osaka as an Entrepot (1714)Principal non-Rice Imports / Exports

Imports ExportsMarine products 20.2% Oil & beeswax 36.4%Agricultural items 19.5 Clothing & textiles 25.2Clothing & textiles 15.4 Misc tools 7.5Oilseed 12.9 Misc exports 7.3Mining products 7.5 Processed food 6.1Fertilizer 6.4 Accessories & decorations5.8Wood products 5.9 Lacquerware & pottery 4.6Misc Imports 4.1 Seedcake (fertilizer) 3.4Tea & tobacco 2.8 Furniture 0.5Tatami 2.0 Weapons 0.5Kyoto crafts 0.9 Arts & crafts 0.4%Total (Ag value) 286,561 kan Total 95,800 kan

Extent of Cotton CultivationJapan remained able to shift land out of food crops

Specialization in AgricultureCotton Production

Koga county, Harima han near modern Kobe

IrrigatedYear fields Dryland Reclaimed Total1801 0.4% 13.7% 28.5% 8.2%1807 0.6 15.1 25.2 8.21813 3.0 41.5 36.9 17.31822 4.3 38.6 36.8 17.41832 0.5 34.5 34.8 13.41842 2.2 38.6 36.9 16.21847 1.5 35.2 35.2 14.5

Note: I find it surprising that any irrigated fields were used for cotton instead of rice!In the 1880s imports led to a sharp drop in domestic output, and production ceased by 1900.

Standard of Living

• transformation of consumption– various rough fibers replaced by cotton; silk worn by more than

just elite

– new (and better foods). peppers, sweet potatoes / taro, corn, etc.

– new and better housing: tatami mats off the ground

– vast increases in protein-laden soybean-related consumption (miso, soy sauce)

• Education– Literate society, perhaps more so than England!

– Vast outpouring of books, circulated through lending libraries

– Even nascent “western” studies, esp. in 1800s

End of Tokugawa rule

• 250 years of peace meant hard to forestall Western imperialists

• Delicate political balance made it impossible to increase revenue– taxing goods & commerce would create big winners, politically out

– Land tax meant fixed government revenues in a growing economy

• US Adm. Perry (1854) and Russians in north forced opening of ports– Beefing up military crucial

– Personalities ruled out restructuring Tokugawa domestic accord

• Lack of national government, lack of standing army no longer tenable

• Outside tozama han put together alliance and toppled the Tokugawa family in a nearly-bloodless coup

• Only remaining national symbol - the Emperor - used by victors

Kawaguchi Ironware

Zaguri (silk weaving

machine)

Loom (karabikibata)c. 1770

SpinningSilk

Whale Processing

Factory

Growth of a National MarketRice Price Movements Converged in the 17th Century

Structure of National Output

– 1874 –

• shortly after “opening” to the West

• before significant structural change from– new technologies – convergence of domestic &

international prices

Agriculture rice

Industry textiles food

Other

Queries

• Was China a modern economy?– When?– Extent?

• Cf. William Skinner on economic geography of Ming China

• Cf. Kenneth Pomeranz on lower Yangtze river and limits to growth

Data

• Following slides provide select data and pictures of technology for Edo ear

• See library for the period from 1868-1945, e.g.– Economic growth in prewar Japan / Takafusa Nakamura ; translated by

Robert A. Feldman,Yale University Press 1983  HC462.8 .N25513 1983  

– Cambridge History of Japan, various entries,  DS835 .C36 1988  

– The interwar economy of Japan : colonialism, depression, and recovery, 1910-1940 / edited with introductions by Michael Smitka. Garland Pub., 1998  HC462.7 .I584 1998  

– Japanese prewar growth : lessons for development theory? / edited with introductions by Michael Smitka Garland Pub., 1998  HC462.7 .J385

1998