eastern ontario local food 2050 - allan douglas

CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE: CURRENT

SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING

EASTERN ONTARIO LOCAL FOOD CONFERENCE 2016

NOVEMBER 23, 2016 BELLEVILLE, ON

AL DOUGLAS, OCCIAR

Observed Annual Temperature Change 1901-2012

IPCC 2013

↑ 0.85°C

Consistency Among Global Observations

Climate Trends & Observations: Ontario

Trends in annual mean temperature for 1948–2012

Temperature is rising…

Trends in annual total precipitation for 1948–2012

Precipitation is increasing…

Vincent et al., 2015

Climate Projections for Ontario

Ontario’s average annual temperature is projected to

increase by 5 to 6°C from 2083 to 2093, under a 4°C global warming

scenario

Change (%) in average annual precipitation in Ontario under a

4°C increase in global average annual temperature, from 2083 to

2093

Colombo et al. 2015

Confidence in Climate Change Model Results is not Uniform

N. Comer, 2016

A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE…

Climate Change Hazards Information Portal (CCHIP)

Web-based tool that helps empower organizations of all sizes and capacities to integrate climate change impacts into their planning and design decisions.

E.g. CCHIP can help farmers better prepare for the prime grape growing conditions heading for their region.

Belleville: Mean Daily Temperature (Annual)

CCHIP, 2016

Belleville: Mean Daily Temperature (Summer)

CCHIP, 2016

Belleville: Precipitation (Annual)

CCHIP, 2016

Belleville: Precipitation (Summer)

CCHIP, 2016

Belleville: Temperature and Precipitation

Belleville Annual Summer

Trend - Historical mean daily temperature (1950-2013) 2.2°C 1.3°C

Station average (1981-2010) 8.1°C 20.6°C

RCP8.5 2020s mean temperature 9.5°C 21.9°C

RCP8.5 2050s mean temperature 11.5° 23.8°C

RCP8.5 2080s mean temperature 13.7°C 26.1°C

Trend - Historical total precipitation (1950-2013) 42.3 mm 36.5 mm

Station average (1981-2010) 914.0 mm 218.4 mm

RCP8.5 2020s total precipitation 943.1 mm 218.9 mm

RCP8.5 2050s total precipitation 981.3 mm 216.4 mm

RCP8.5 2080s total precipitation 1006.6 mm 211.5 mm

CCHIP, 2016

Belleville: Monthly Freeze-thaw Cycles and Daily Frost

Free-thaw cycles projected to:

Decrease in the spring and fall

Decrease in December, remain unchanged in January, and increase in February.

Frost free days

projected to increase

CCHIP, 2016

Trenton: Growing Degree Days

Trenton A Start Day End Day

Average Growing Season 101 290 (189 days)

Projected RCP 8.5 2020s average growing season 93 298 (205 days)

Projected RCP 8.5 2050s average growing season 82 311 (229 days)

Projected RCP 8.5 2100s average growing season 75 322 (247 days)

CCHIP, 2016

Climate Change Extremes and Ontario Agriculture / Carleton University

Zaytseva, Carleton University 2016

Growing Degree Days and Growing Seasons

18

Baseline: Effective Growing Degree Days (1971-2000)

Climate Change Scenario: Effective Growing Degree Days (2010-2039)

Baseline: Growing Season (1971-2000)

Climate Change Scenario: Growing Season (2010-2039)

Source: AAFC, 2014

TOOLS AND RESOURCES

Risk and Vulnerability Assessments

Black, Bruce, Egener (2014) Gleeson, Gray, Douglas, Lemieux, Nielsen (2011)

Ontario Climate and Agriculture Assessment Framework (OCAAF)

OCAAF is a regional framework to assess baseline and future agroclimatic risks and opportunities.

Goals

To inform policy, program and management choices so as to maintain or enhance agricultural productivity under a changing climate.

To help prepare for the impacts of climate change and develop adaptation options.

Funding from New Directions Program at OMAFRA

Project Administration Al Douglas, OCCIAR Annette Morand, OCCIAR

Collaborating Specialists Dr. Neil Comer, Risk Sciences International Erik Sparling, Risk Sciences International Heather Auld, Risk Sciences International Don Robinson, ESSA Technologies Jimena Eyzaguirre, ESSA Technologies Patricia De La Cueva Bueno, ESSA Technologies Tim Webb, ESSA Technologies

University Researchers Dr. Vincent Cheng, University of Toronto Dr. Carole Lafrenière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue

Supporters: MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS

Ontario Climate and Agriculture Assessment Framework (OCAAF)

Ontario Climate and Agriculture Assessment Framework (OCAAF)

Objectives

Build an adaptable, transportable, translatable, and functionally expandable risk-opportunity assessment framework.

Apply the framework to 2 regions and production systems:

Forage-based beef production in Ontario’s Clay Belt

Corn production in southwestern Ontario

Analyze decadal regional climate change risks and opportunities out to 2050.

Make recommendations about adaptation in policy and programs for Ontario.

Disseminate findings on risks, opportunities and adaptive options.

THANK YOU AL DOUGLAS

adouglas@mirarco.org