e-mail: breiling@breiling.org may 27th, 2005regional landscape planning: short term processes short...
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May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Short Term Landscape Processes & Understanding of
PlanningLecture 4 „Regional Landscape
Planning“May 27th, 2005www.breiling.org/awaji
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Humans and Space
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Awaji Shima Region
Awaji Shima Region
Smaller ScalesLarger Scales
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Awaji Shima Region• ~ 600 km²• ~ 150,000 inhabitants• Larger spatial scales
– Hyogo ken– Kinki region– Japan– East Asia– Eurasia– World
• Smaller spatial scales– Municipalities (gun)– Settlement area (cho)– village (machi)– Places– Private units
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Relation local, regional, global
– Region is characterized• By smaller local units• By larger global unit
– Regional (local, global) state• (infa-) structure within the
region
– Regional (local, global) use• Economy• Ecology• Quality of life
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Long-, medium-, short- term processes
• Processunderstanding of Landscape– Long term > 100 years steps of change– Medium term < 100 years, > 1 year changes– Short term < 1 year processes
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Long term processes• Long term processes
– Geology– Climate– Soil– Water System– Vegetation– Animal Life
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Medium term processes– Political administration (cho, machi, sanchome)– Demographic trends – Land use
• Agriculture• Tourism• Roads and trafic infrastructures• Settlement areas
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Short term processes
• Energy use• Greenhouse gases• Water use• Waste generation• Human inputs in agriculture• Working hours in agriculture
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Landscape & Time• Landscape is dynamic
– Arena for all processes – Landscape changes continuously
• State and Use– Longer processes generate the „state“ (Structure
Infrastructure) for the „use“ in shorter processes– What is state and what is use depends on our interest
• Human Understanding of Landscape Processes– Long term processes are perceived as stable/non dynamic– Medium term processes depend on long term processes,
generate (infra-) structure for human beings– Short term processes describe human actions within a year
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Anticipated Processes: Cyclic• Cyclic means that the pattern of change is known and
repeated on regular base (can be anticipated)– Decades: harvesting of trees, perhaps climate variations,
appearance of Feb. 29th – Years: harvesting of field fruits– Seasons: spring, summer, autumn, winter– Month: salaries– Week: weekdays, weekend– Day: morning, noon, afternoon, evening, night
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Anticipated Processes: Non Cyclic• Non-cyclic where the pattern of change is known: Growth and
Decline– Centuries: waves of earthquakes and vulcanos – Decades:
• perhaps human induced climate change, • life periods such as childhood, youth, young adult, family start, family peak,
career peak, agil pensionist, pensionist, • plant growth states of higher plants, availability of resources
– Years: Investments and loans, – Seasons: extreme (summer) heat, extreme (autumn) thyphoons,
extreme snow (winter) or floodings etc.– Month: amount of salaries– Week: visitors of touristic spots on weekdays, weekend– Day: the menue in ALPHA cantine
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Non Anticipated Processes: Surprises regarding Natural System
• Not experienced before – Not included in planning & management
• Climate change– Impacts of climate changes– Directions of climate changes
• Acid deposition, forest die-back, fish dying• Chemical time bombs
– Colloid chemical compounds and pH change• Manipulated genes?
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Non Anticipated Processes: „Surprises“ regarding Social System
• Rural depopulation• Population decrease in developed world• Aged population, perhaps break down of social
system• New power of kids as consumers
– Several old people to support one kid in shrinking societies
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Planning and Management
• Is like riding a bicycle– Foreseen cyclic processes of wheels– Unforeseen but expected disturbances
when passing hinders
• Surprises are: a jump into the water– Planning and management in a changed
context• The road beneath does no longer exist• Learn how to fly or• Learn to swim
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Awaji Shima
Factors of Influence• Exogenous factors
from outside• Endogenous factors
from inside• Physical, chemical,
biotic stressfactors• Socio-economic
political stressfactors
Breiling after Döös 1992
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Consequences for our region “Awaji shima”
• There is not a single threat or challenge• But a combination of many factors• Difficult to judge the weight of a single factor• General rules
– Local concern can counter exogenous threats– Exogenous threats are enhanced if ignored locally– We cannot foresee the future, surprises inevitable– More planning better than less planning
• Surprises become less likely
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
The Planning Process
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Planning• Deals with simplified reality
• Is a “model of expected truth”
• Assumes a system of influencing factors– Similar to my figure of stressfactors
• Neglects everything not considered
• Then we start circulation in our system and improve performance to a wanted output (and get perhaps an unwanted output)
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Short Term Processes• Give a current picture of Awaji
shima regarding– Energy in agriculture/tourism (Group 1)– Greenhouse gases in agriculture/tourism (Group 2)– Water use in agriculture/tourism (Group 3)– Waste generation and making compost (Group 4)– Land demand of agriculture/tourism (Group 5)– Working hours/occupation in agriculture/tourism
(Group 6)
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Trends in Japanese Rice Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
y1960 y1965 y1970 y1975 y1980 y1985 y1990 y1995
Average Yield in kg/ha
Rice area in 1000 ha
Total Supply in 10,000 tons
Average per caputa consumtion in 0.1 kg
Source: Agricultural Census of Japan
Changes in Japanese Agriculture: Rice
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Changes in Japanese Agriculture
Source: Agricultural Census of JapanCited by : S. Hasegawa, T. Tabuchi (1995). Well Facilitated Paddy Fields in Japan.
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Number of urban households is rapidly increasing
Share of Agricultural Households Against Others (in 1000)
Number Households Total Agricultural Mixed Agricultural
Non Agricultural No workers
1980 35824 1360 2131 28972 3311
1985 37980 1210 1954 30400 4344
1990 40670 993 1596 32568 5357
1995 43900 935 1379 34464 6902
Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 1998, National Census data
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Number of agricultural households decreases
Share of Full Time and Part Time Farm Households 1960 to 1995 (in 1000)
Number Households Total Full time Part time
1960 6057 2078 3979
1965 5665 1219 4446
1970 5342 831 4510
1975 4953 616 4337
1980 4661 623 4038
1985 4376 626 3750
1990 3835 592 3243
1995 2651 428 2224
Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 1998, Agricultural Census data
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Income in agriculture only small portion
Table 3 Income Source of Agricultural Households
Year Agricultural Income
Non Agricultural Income
Total Share of agricultural income
1965 365 396 761 48%
1970 508 885 1393 36%
1975 1146 2268 3414 34%
1980 952 3563 4515 21%
1985 1066 4437 5503 19%
1990 1163 5438 6601 18%
1995 1442 5453 6895 21%
Source: Asahi Shinbun 1999, Agricultural Census data
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Agriculture a female profession?
Table 4 Occupation in Agriculture (in 10,000)
Farm Occupants in 10.000 total female Share of female
t1965 1152 695 60%
t1970 1025 628 61%
t1975 791 493 62%
t1980 697 429 62%
t1985 636 388 61%
t1990 565 340 60%
t1995 490 286 58%
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.orgWill rural disappear in a non distant future?
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Will there be someone working in fields?
• Source: S. Hasegawa, T. Tabuchi (1995). Well Facilitated Paddy Fields in Japan.
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Increase in Machinery Use
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Fertilizer Use in Agriculture
Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Energy Input in Agriculture
Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Change in Diet
Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base
May 27th, 2005
Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes
E-mail: breiling@breiling.org
Conclusion• Structure and Processes change over time
• Long term processes provide structure for medium term processes
• Medium term processes provide structure for short term processes
• Performance of short term processes is relevant for environmental quality
• Resource flow determines processes
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