dynamic climate change adaptation for potato productiondynamic climate change adaptation for potato...

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Dynamic Climate Change

Adaptation for Potato ProductionStephanie Arnold, University of Prince Edward Island

2019 Island Agrology Workshop: Building Resiliency in Maritime Agriculture

19 August 2019

Pests, diseases

Water management

Market instability

Operating costs

Uncooperative weather

Pressures

1967 Source: Parent et al, 1967

21 °C

1967

Source: Parent et al, 1967

“Most Likely”

Temperature

Change by

2050s (°C)Source: Fenech, 2018

“Most Likely”

Temperature

Changes

Source: Arnold and Fenech, 2017

8

16

22

35

0

10

20

30

40

Observed

1990s

Projected

2020s

Projected

2050s

Projected

2080s

Number of Days > 27.5°CCharlottetown, PEI

“Most Likely”

Precipitation

Change by

2050s (%)

Source: Fenech, 2018

“Most Likely”

Precipitation

Changes0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1978-2013 2010-2060 2050-2100

Intensity of 1 hour Rain Event (mm/h)

Summerside, PEI

(Observed) (Projected) (Projected)

1:100

1:50

1:25

1:20

1:10

1:5

1:2

Data source: https://www.idf-cc-uwo.ca/

But…

Average age = 17.8

But…

Source: Jardine, 2019

But…

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw

Opportunity or Challenge?

{ {Opportunities

Increased yield

potential

New varieties, crops

Double harvest

Challenges

Heat stress

Dry matter distribution

Pests, weeds, insects

TemperatureSource: Wikimedia Commons

{ {Opportunities

Increased

variation

More frequent

extreme events

Challenges

Drought

Excessive soil moisture

Leaching, erosion

Bacterial infection

Seed contamination

Precipitation

{ {Uncertainties

Types of impacts

Location of impacts

Timing of impacts

Extent of impacts

Concerns

Over adapt

Under adapt

Failure to adapt

Maladapt

Dealing with Uncertainty

Pressure points

Threshold levels

Action options and sequences

Dealing with Uncertainty

Data Collection

Total Precipitation - August 2017

(24 stations)

140 mm

80 mm

20 mm

Total Precipitation - August 2017

(32 stations)

140 mm

80 mm

20 mm

Data CollectionSource: Jardine, 2019

Sources: https://www.sensefly.com/drone/ebee-x-fixed-wing-drone/;

https://www.edaphic.com.au/products/soils/tdr-soil-moisture-sensor/

Planting Date

Planting Tuber Initiation

Source: Adavi, 2018

BreedingSource: https://twitter.com/PEIPotatoes/status/875718410042212352; modified

Breeding

Peru

Uganda

India

Ithaca, NY

Water management

Nutrient management

Soil organic matter

Cover crop

Crop rotation

Hedgerows

Etc.

Management Practices

World leader in

understanding and

adapting to the climate

change impacts on

economies and ecologies.

Applying leading

technologies such as

drones, big data analytics

and virtual reality to the

climate change challenge.

Canadian Centre for

Climate Change and Adaptation

BSc in Climate Change and Adaptation

Master in Climate Change programme

Research Centres of Excellence in Climate

Change Adaptation

> Climate Coastal Science

> Food Production and Sustainability

> Human and Animal Health

UPEI Climate Research Lab

Professional training and development

(ClimateSense)

Adavi, Z., Moradi, R., Saeidnejad, A. H., Tadayon, M. R., & Mansouri, H. (2018). Assessment of potato response to climate change and adaptation strategies. Scientia Hortculturae, 228, 91-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.10.017

Arnold, S. & Fenech, A. (2017). Prince Edward Island Climate Change Adaptation Recommendations Report. Submitted to the Government of Prince Edward Island.

Fenech, A. (2018, February 28). Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation at Atlantic Canada Parks [Presentation]. Presented to Parks Canada.

Jardine, D. (2019, July 31). The most useful climate change indicators for agriculture and watershed groups on Prince Edward Island [Presentation]. Presented to Trout River Environmental Committee.

Kleinwechter, U., Gastelo, M., Ritchie, J., Nelson, G. & Asseng, S. (2016). Simulating cultivar variations I potato yields for contrasting environments. Agricultural Systems, 145, 51-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.011

Parent, R.C., Black, W.N. and Callbeck, L.C. (1967). Potato Growing in the Atlantic Provinces. Canada Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2015/aac-aafc/A53-1281-1967-eng.pdf

References

Stephanie Arnold

UPEI Climate Research Lab

starnold@upei.ca

902-218-6800

Contact