draft pan am 2015 science plan paul joe, stephane belair, ismail gultepe, david sills, stewart...

DRAFT

Pan Am 2015 Science Plan

Paul Joe, Stephane Belair, Ismail Gultepe, David Sills, Stewart Cober, Veronique Bouchet, Jean-Pierre

Charland, David Hudak, Norman Donaldson, George Isaac, Tsoi Yip, Ed Becker, Victor Chung, Mark Seifert,

Sara, Wong, Helen Yang, George Isaac, Dave Henderson, Bill Appleby, Health Canada

Outline

• Introduction– Mandate, Constraints– Process

• Themes - DRAFT

• Status/Next Steps

Introduction

• Warnings for venues – Main operational mandate – large crowds, security– Infrastructure & Efficiency – good place for business

• Legacy– Demonstrate advanced capabilities– Accelerate existing programs– Align and provide a focus for MSC Signature Projects

• Coordinate the dependencies• Prototype key concepts• Early deliverable• Capacity build NL’s/Tech Transfer

Themes

• Demonstration and validation of emerging NWP and Nowcasting capabilities for urban forecasts, warnings and AQHI

• Demonstration, evaluation of emerging monitoring technologies for validation of emerging prediction capabilities

• Demonstration of use of new prediction and monitoring in the forecast/warning office of the future

Theme - Prediction

• 1 km and 250 model application and validation

• Town Energy Balance model

• Wind/wind shift nowcasting• AQ model• AQ nowcasting• Health Index

6 July, 01:00 LST6 July, 01:00 LSTNocturnal 2m air Nocturnal 2m air temperaturetemperature(simulation, 120m) (simulation, 120m)

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

►UHI : 5-6 °C

°CMontreal Island

6 July, 01:00 LST6 July, 01:00 LSTNocturnal 2m air Nocturnal 2m air temperaturetemperature(simulation, 120m) (simulation, 120m)

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

►UHI : 5-6 °C

°CMontreal Island

Theme - Monitoring• Emerging monitoring technologies to

validate high resolution models in urban environment

– High temporal frequency measurements

– Low cost sensors– AQ supersite concept

• Validation of the Network of Network concepts,

– Intercomparison for data quality knowledge and application

– NoN Mesonet• Lower tropospheric profiling

technologies (thermodyanmic, air quality)

– Lightning Mapping Array– Unmanned Aeronautical Vehicles– Sodat

12

3

4

5

6

0 50km

AiO

UPDATED+ 4 More AiO

Theme – Office of the Future

• Man-machine mix– When automation is good enough– When and how to intervene

• Ownership of the end product in a “production data base” concept – metObjects

• Event based warnings• Deployment and use of

advanced NinJo features• Use of high res NWP, EPS• Need to prototype complex ideas

before development of operational specification and deployment!

Fcster

Data Cube, Production db,,

Meteocode

Automatic products