digital vs. printed newspapers - fastmarkets risi · among digital readers, 55% are still reading...

H. IRIS CHYIThe University of Texas at Austin

RISI Latin American Conference, São Paulo, Brazil

AUGUST 15, 2018

DIGITAL VS. PRINTED NEWSPAPERS: A Study of Consumer Patterns and their Impact on Production

Q:The future of newspapers is _____.

1. Online2. In print3. Both4. There is no future for newspapers.

Q:The future of newspapers is _____.

1. Online2. In print3. Both4. There is no future for newspapers.

Q:The future of newspapers is _____.

1. Online2. In print3. Both4. There is no future for newspapers.

The NYT went online in 1996.

By 1999, more than 2,600 U.S. newspapers were providing online services.

Big‐Screen e‐Readers May Help Save Newspapers

Now the recession‐ravaged newspaper and magazine industries are hoping for their own knight in shining digital armor, in the form of portable reading devices with big screens.

(NYT, 2009)

October 1, 2012Future of Mobile News

The era of mobile digital technology has crossed a new threshold.

Half of all U.S. adults now have a mobile connection to the web through either a smartphone or tablet...

(Pew, 2012)

UNFORTUNATELYAfter 22+ years of digital transformation, U.S. newspapers have found no viable revenue models for any of their digital products.

AS OF 2018Newspapers can no longer afford pursuing unrealistic digital dreams.

GOOD NEWSReaders’ attachment to print newspapers is much stronger than expected.

REALLY?

REALITYDespite declines, the print edition still outperforms digital news products by almost every standard.

Advertising revenue (print > digital)

Subscription revenue (print > digital)

Readership (print > digital)

Engagement (print > digital)

The print-digital gap

ADVERTISING REVENUEPrint > Digital

Print still accounted for 82% of ad revenue

SUBSCRIPTION REVENUEPrint > Digital

The New York Times, Q2 2018

• Digital subscription revenue: $99 million• Print subscription revenue: $162 million

Source: https://s1.q4cdn.com/156149269/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q2/Q2‐2018‐10‐Q.pdf (Q2 of 2018)

READERSHIPPrint > Digital

Source: Scarborough, Q3 2015

(Chyi & Tenenboim, 2017)

PrintReach

Online Reach

Average of 51 papers 29% 10%

In-market Online and Print Reach, 2015

Among the 51 newspapers, without a single exception, print reach > online reach.

Print-only Hybrid Online-only

Average of 51 papers 23.3% 5.5% 4.5%

In-market Print-Only, Hybrid, and Online-Only Reach, 2015

86% of those who read a newspaper do so in print.

Among digital readers, 55% are still reading the print edition. 

Print reach Online reach

2007 2011 2015 2007 2011 2015

Average of 51 papers 42% 36% 29% 10% 11% 10%

In-market Print and Online Reach over Time

In‐market online readership has shown little or nogrowth since 2007.

Yes, print readership has been declining, but there is one factor they never mentioned: PRICE.

Price hikes for the print edition7‐day print subscription 

(/year)

2008 2012 2016

New York Times $530  $608 $978Washington Post $187 $305 $559 Los Angeles Times $104  $162 $624 

Average of top 25 U.S. papers $217 $300 $510

Source: Alliance of Audited MediaChyi & Tenenboim (2018)

Subscription price (promotion) among top 50 U.S. newspapers

Subscription price (/week)

digital print

New York Times $2.00  $7.75Washington Post $0.25  $1.79 

Median $0.25 $3.00

Mean $0.72 $3.71

Source: Chyi & Ng (2018)

Subscription price (regular)

Subscription price (/month)

digital print

New York Times $16  $62Washington Post $10  $49 

Median $10 $25

Mean $10 $28

For The New York Times, it takes nearly four digital subscribers to generate as much income as one print subscriber

ENGAGEMENTPrint > Digital

Time spent on U.K. newspapers

Online: Less than 30 seconds a day  Print: 40 minutesa day

‐ Neil Thurman (2017)

HOW ABOUT “DIGITAL NATIVES”?

Readership

The case of the New Yorker magazine• “Millennials are choosing print overwhelmingly, or digital and print,” 

• “Millennials are opting for print at a rate 10 percent higher than older demographics.”

Source: Politico, 2017

IN SUMPrint newspapers are far more expensive.They reach far more readers.Readers spend far more time reading them.They generate far more revenue.

No app, no streamlined website, no “vertical integration,” no social network, no algorithm, no Apple, no Apple Newsstand, no paywall, no soft paywall, no targeted ad, no mobile-first strategy has come close to matching the success of print in revenue or readership.

Michael Rosenwald (2016)

SOPrint newspapers do not have to die.

BUTThey may die if publishers do not realize that their competitive advantage lies in print, not online.

Ultimately, the demand of any product is determined by consumers.

• Sales of print books are up for the third year in a row, according to the Association of American Publishers.

• ebook sales have been declining.• Independent bookstores have been steadily expanding for several years. 

• Vinyl records have witnessed a decade‐long boom in popularity (more than 200,000 newly pressed records are sold each week in the United States).

• Sales of instant‐film cameras, paper notebooks, board games and Broadway tickets are all growing again.

Publishers should

• acknowledge the reality

– Newspaper readers are by no means “platform‐agnostic.” 

– They prefer print.

• convey it to advertisers

Publishers should

• value audience research

• deliver quality content through the preferred platform—print.

So, the future of newspapers is _____.

1. Online2. In print3. Both4. There is no future for newspapers.

Thank you.

chyi@mail.utexas.edu@IrisChyiirischyi.com