delivering to the energy marketplace - texas harvests wind and solar

Principal Solar Institute

Ron SeidelDirector, Principal Solar

Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant.

Delivering to the Energy Marketplace -Texas Harvests Wind and Solar

ERCOT Facts & Figures200,000 Square Miles >43,000 miles of High Voltage Transmission>74,000 MW Peak Capacity~12,000 MW of wind capacity <200 MW utility scale solar capacity 69,783 MW Peak Load (August 10, 2015)– Increase of 3,356 MW over 2014 Peak Load (5.1%)

13.75% Target Reserve Margin

Source: ERCOT

Texas Ties to Mexico and the Eastern Interconnection

Source: RBS Energy Consulting

Wind13% Hydro,

biomass, other1%

Nuclear 7%

Coal23%

Natural Gas56%

Installed Capacity2011

Wind14%

Hydro, biomass, other

1%Nuclear

6%

Coal24%

Natural Gas55%

Installed Capacity2014

69,704 Megawatts 73,910 Megawatts

ERCOT Capacity2011 and 2014

Source: ERCOT

Wind8%

Hydro, biomass, other

1%Nuclear

12%

Coal39%

Natural Gas40%

Energy Produced2011

Wind11%

Hydro, biomass, other

1%Nuclear

12%

Coal36%

Natural Gas41%

Energy Produced2014

335,000 Gigawatt-hours 340,000 Gigawatt-hours

ERCOT Energy2011 and 2014

Source: ERCOT

Reliability Values

Gas/Coal/Nuclear

West Texas Wind

Coastal Wind Current Solar Future Solar0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%100%

12%

56%

100%

70%

Reliability %

ERCOT Load Growth

ERCOT Average Load Growth 2016 – 2025 is 1.3% or about 1,000 MW per year

Equivalent to–One nuclear plant each year–Two coal plants each year–Two combined cycle gas plants each year

Sources: ERCOT , RBS Energy Consulting

ERCOT Reserve MarginsDecember 2012 Report

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0 13.2

10.9 10.5

8.5 8.47.1

5.04.1 3.6

2.8

Target =13.75%

%

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT Reserve MarginsMay 2015 Report

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20250.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

17.018.5

21.4

18.717.1

16.114.6

13.211.8

10.4

Target =13.75%

%

Source: ERCOT

Potential Solar Capacity2022

Long Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region, December 2012

2029 ERCOT Generation

51%

25%

9%

9%6%

%

Natural Gas

Coal

Wind

Nuclear

Solar

Source: 2014 Long-Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region,December 2014

Percent Energy by Source

2014 2018 2021 2024 2027 20290

20

40

60

80

100

41 46 51 49 51 51

36 31 27 28 26 25

12 11 11 10 9 9

10 12 11 11 10 92 4 6

SolarWindNuclearCoalNatural Gas

Source: 2014 Long-Term Assessment for the ERCOT Region,December 2014

Solar PV Cost History

Source: NREL / DOE

Capital Cost by Generation Technology

Nuclear Coal Solar PV Wind Natural Gas CC

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Capital Cost ($/kW)

Capital Cost ($/kW)

ERCOT Wind Zones

Source: ERCOT

Texas Solar Intensity

U.S. Solar PV Capacity

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Meg

awatt

s DC

Achievable Solar PV Energy in Texas

Reference: ERCOT Peak Load ~70 GW

Urban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total)Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total)

Achieving just 1% of this capability would produce over 200 GW or almost three times the current ERCOT maximum load.

Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT Transmission

CREZ Program

A CREZ is a geographic area with optimal conditions for the economic development of wind power generation facilities

Enabled by Senate Bill 20, passed in 2005 Designed to move wind electricity from

West Texas to the more heavily populated areas

Allow transmittal of about 18,500 MW wind

CREZ Metrics

2008$4.97 Billion

2963 miles

109 Projects

2015$6.9 Billion

+39%3589 miles

+21%169 Projects

+55%

Source: ERCOT

CREZ Transmission Additions

Source: ERCOT

CREZ in Prime Solar Area

Source: ERCOT

ERCOT Transmission + CREZ Lines

Source: ERCOT

Impact of Solar generation on the 2029 summer hourly load

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Load Solar Net Load

Source: ERCOT 2014 Long Term System Assessment Report

Solar Synergy with Load

0:00

1:00

2:00

3:00

4:00

5:00

6:00

7:00

8:00

9:00

10:00

11:00

12:00

13:00

14:00

15:00

16:00

17:00

18:00

19:00

20:00

21:00

22:00

23:00

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

System Load Wind Generation Solar Generation

Hour

Syst

em Lo

ad (M

W)

Gene

ratio

n (M

W)

ERCOT Load

Wind Profile

Solar Profile

Source: RBS Energy Consulting

Solar Synergy with Load

0:002:00

4:006:00

8:0010:00

12:0014:00

16:0018:00

20:0022:00

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000System Load Solar Wind Solar + Wind MW

Source: RBS Energy Consulting

MW

Solar, Wind and Natural Gas

Summary Demand for electricity in Texas is growing ERCOT has a large renewable portfolio

– Currently almost 12,000 MW of wind is in operation – Less than 200 MW of utility scale solar PV operating

Texas has an enormous solar PV opportunity CREZ transmission supports wind and solar Solar PV has a higher capacity value than wind and is

synergistic with load Solar costs are nearing grid parity and and continue to fall ERCOT provides a unique opportunity to combine solar , wind

and natural gas generation

Questions and Discussion

Ron SeidelDirector, Principal Solar

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