dan m. kahan yale university & 10^3 others! research...

www.culturalcognition.net

Research Supported by:

National Science Foundation, SES-0621840 & -0922714

Annenberg Public Policy Center

Dan M. Kahan

Yale University

& 10^3 others!

Forecasting Novel Technology Risk Perceptions:

Are We There Yet?

2017: ~ 30th Anniversary of the study of anticipated public reaction to nanotechnology as “novel” or “emerging” technology!

Jan. 1986 . . .

. . .May 2017

Are we there yet? . . .

1. Culture conflict: affects science but is not about science

2. Beware survey artifact

3. Beware exogenous politicization

Making it the rest of the way

1. Avoid “hyping” (or contributing to same in media)

2. Study triggering condistions with realistic stimuli

3. Investigate locally, with field-study methods

4. Prefer administrative to popular political risk-perception

management authorities

“They Saw a Protest”

Identity-protective cognition:

“They Saw a Game”

Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?

Experimental Conditions

Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Individualism Communitarianism

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Representative items:Agree/disagree, 6 pt likert measure

Individualism-Communitarianism

IPROTECT.

CLIMCHOI.

Hierarchy-Egalitarianism

EWEALTH.

HFEMININ.

IPROTECT. “It's not the government's business to try to protect people from themselves.”

CLIMCHOI.

EWEALTH.

HFEMININ.

CLIMCHOI. “Government should put limits on the choices individuals can make so

they don't get in the way of what's good for society.”

EWEALTH.

HFEMININ.

EWEALTH. “Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal.”

HFEMININ.

EWEALTH. “Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal.”

HFEMININ. “Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine.”

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians

egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center

Police Liable Police Enjoined

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when?P

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when?

Egal individ

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when?

Hierarch commun

Egal individ

Hierarch commun

Egal individ

Hierarch commun

Egal individ

Hierarch commun

Egal individ

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when?P

Protestors blocked Screamed in face

Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed

abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center

Hierarch commun

Hierarch individ

Egal individ

Egal individEgal commun

Egal commun

“They Saw a Protest”: Who saw what & when?

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

marijuana legalization

Risk Perception Key

Low Risk

High Risk

Environment: climate, nuclear

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

Gays military/gay parenting

cats/common varmints

Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design

1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel

▪ Worldviews

▪ Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology

▪ Nanotechnology risks v. benefits

▪ Other risk perceptions

No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)

Sample

Measures

Experimental Manipulation

Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology

Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

marijuana legalization

Risk Perception Key

Low Risk

High Risk

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

Gays military/gay parenting

cats/common varmints

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Risk Perception Key

Low Risk

High Risk

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

No Information Information-Exposed

Experiment Condition Experiment Condition

No Info. No Info.Info.-Exposed0%

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Unfamiliar with Nano

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of

Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009).

* Change across condistions with realistic stimuli significant at p < 0.05

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

Experimental Condition

Familiar with Nano86%

Hierarchical Individualist

Egalitarian Communitarian

* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05

Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

Experimental ConditionB

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

Information effect: familiarity Information effect: culture

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

Experimental ConditionB

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

▪ Worldviews

Sample

Measures

High Risk

Moderate

Slight

Almost No

Risk 1.00

Internet Mad Cow

Disease

Nuclear

Genetically

Modified

Private Gun

Ownership

Familiar with Nanotechnology

Unfamiliar with Nanotechnology

n = 1,820 to 1,830. Risk variables are 4-pt measures of “risk to people in American Society” posed by

indicated risk. Differences between group means all significant at p ≤ .01.

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

ifts >

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

fits >

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-1.4%-0.9%-0.9%-0.5%

Hierarch

Egalitarian

20th 40th 60th 80th 99th

Communitarian IndividualisticPercentile

Figure S1

HPV-Vaccine Risk Perception: Study Design

▪ Hierarchy-egalitarianism

▪ Individualism-communitarianism

▪ 5 individual risk/benefit items

▪ Risk overall, benefit overall

▪ Combined into reliable 4-pt “risk scale”

1. No-argument (n = 250)

2. Balanced Arguments (n = 250)

3. Arguments plus experts (n = 1,022)

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

HPV-Vaccine Risk Perceptions

Conditions

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Cultural Cognition of Risk

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Risk > Benefit

Benefit > Risk

Cultural Cognition of Risk

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Pct. A

e“The HPV vaccine is safe for use among young girls...”

No Argument Argument Expected Advocate/Argument

Alignment

Unexpected Advocate/Argument

Alignment

Pluralistic Advocate/Argument

Alignment

No Argument Balanced

Argument

Pct. A

Alignment

No Argument Balanced

Argument

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Sample

Cultural Worldviews

Conditions

Culturally identifiable “public health experts”

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

CommunitarianismIndividualism

Pct. A

Alignment

No Argument Expected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

Argument

Pct. A

Alignment

AlignmentNo Argument Expected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

ArgumentUnexpected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Pct. A

No Argument Argument Expected Advocate/ArgumentAlignment

Unexpected Advocate/ArgumentAlignment

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

ArgumentUnexpected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Pct. A

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

ArgumentUnexpected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed

Hierarch commun

Hierarch individ

Egal individ

Egal commun

85%77%

61% 61%

Info.-Exposed

Familiar with Nano

Figure 1

Egalitarian

Communitarian

Hierarchical

Individualist

Pct. A

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

ArgumentUnexpected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Pedestrians just not want to

listen

Police just annoyed

Hierarch commun

Hierarch individ

Egal individ

Egal commun

Pct. A

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Pct. A

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

ArgumentUnexpected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Jan. 1986 . . .

. . .May 2017

Nanotechnology “Consumer Product Inventory”

Source: Vance, M.E., Kuiken, T., Vejerano, E.P., McGinnis, S.P., Hochella Jr, M.F., Rejeski, D. & Hull, M.S. Nanotechnology in the real world: Redeveloping the nanomaterial consumer products inventory. Beilstein J. Nanotech. 6, 1769 (2015).

Jan. 1986 . . .

. . .May 2017

External validity: The “survey artifact” effect:

HPV vaccine . . .

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

year0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

HBV ≥3 doses

HPV vaccine . . . . . . HBV vaccine

HBV vaccination rate (CDC, Nat’l Imm. Survey)

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

year0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

HBV ≥3 doses

Pct. A

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

Balanced

ArgumentUnexpected

Argument/Advocate

Alignment

1. Culture conflict: affects science but is not about

science

4. Prefer administrative to popular political risk-

perception management authorities

science

Hyping GM foods

science

2. Furnish social proof, not just facts

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Pedestrians just not want to

listen

Police just annoyed

Hierarch commun

Hierarch individ

Egal individ

Egal commun

Pct. A

Cultural Cognition Project

SE Fla. evidence-based science communication initiative

SE Florida Climate Change Political Science

Proselytizing the normality of climate science

Homeowner

climate scientistCorp. exec.

Local businessman

Proselytizing the normality of climate science

Homeowner

climate scientistCorp. exec.

Local businessman

Affinity group members spread the word . . .

science

Affinity group members spread the word . . .

science

4. Prefer administrative to political risk-perception

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

year0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MMR ≥1 doses

Poliovirus

HBV ≥3 doses

HPV vaccine . . . . . . HBV vaccine

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