concentrating solar power - assaf presentations... · 2014-12-12 · concentrating solar power its...

Concentrating Solar Power Its potential contribution to a sustainable energy future

Robert Pitz-Paal, DLR, Institute of Solar Research

Chairman of EASAC Working Group

Tuesday , October 9th, 2012 Pretoria, South Africa

2

Working Group Membership

• Professor Amr Amin, Helwan University, Egypt • Professor Marc Bettzüge, Cologne University, Germany • Professor Philip Eames, Loughborough University, UK • Dr. Gilles Flamant, CNRS, France • Dr Fabrizio Fabrizi, ENEA, Italy • Professor Avi Kribus, Tel Aviv University, Israel • Professor Harry van der Laan, Universities of Leiden and Utrecht, Netherlands • Professor Cayetano Lopez Martinez, CIEMAT, Spain • Professor Fransisco Garcia Novo, University of Seville, Spain • Professor Panos Papagiannakopoulos, University of Crete, Greece • Mr Erik Pihl, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden • Professor Robert Pitz-Paal (Chair), DLR, Germany • Mr Paul Smith, University College Dublin, Ireland • Professor Hermann-Josef Wagner, Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, Germany

3

Key Questions

• What is Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)?

• The Value of CSP Electricity

• Today’s Markets and Costs

• Cost Reduction Potential

• Potential Role of CSP Technology South Africa

• Challenges

• Recommendations

4

Conventional power plants

What is CSP ?

5

Solar thermal power plants

What is CSP ?

What is CSP?

6

Technology

Peak solar to

electricity

conversion

efficiency

Annual solar-to-

electricity

efficiency

Water consumption,

for wet/dry cooling

(m3/MWh)

Land use

(m²/MWh/a)

Parabolic troughs 23-27% 15-16% 3-4 / 0.2 6-8

Linear Fresnel

systems 18-22% 8-10% 3-4 / 0.2 4-6

Towers (central

receiver systems) 20-27% 15-22% 3-4 / 0.2 8-12

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Market Situation

Ground Requirements

8

Thermal Storage vs. Electric Storage

CSP with storage and fossil hybridisation can provide all 3 components of value Thermal storage economically favorable

2000 h

+2000 h

>95 %

= 75%

200 h

Firm mid

load

capacity

9

Stromgestehungskosten CSP mit und ohne therm. Speicher

Electricity generation cost as function of solar multiple and storage size

(parabolic trough plant

type SEGS VIII,

Pel, = 80 MWel

yearly DNI = 2500

kWh/m²

Sm for 21. March!)

solar multiple (sm)

storage 12 h rated power

no storage

0.1

E

uro

/kW

h

0.1

5

10

Design Options for CSP with Thermal Storage

Source: IEA CSP Technlogy Roadmap 2010

12

Hybridisation secures firm capacity

Hybridsierung im Kraftwerk statt externe Schattenkapazität

13

Today‘s markets: parabolic trough is most mature technology

14

Parabolrinne mit thermischem Speicher

15

9

Status 2012 In Operation: 1.9 GW Under Construction: 3.0 GW Under development: 3.3 GW In operation until 2020 (estim.) 23.4 GW

17

Today‘s markets: New concepts (Tower/Fresnel) target for faster cost reduction

Higher Concentration lead

to higher system efficiency

Tower

c 800-1000

T 800°C

PEAK 28-30%

LEC: 11-7 €ct/kWh

(2010/2020)*

* NREL study „Current and Future cost....“, 2010

Trough

c < 100

T 400°C (-500°)

PEAK 25-27%

LEC: 13-8 €ct/kWh

(2010/2020)*

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Ivenpah Solartower Project

19

20

Technology LEC €c / kWh

CSP: 100 MW w/o storage (Arizona) 17.9 (~14,5 in 2012)

Pulverized coal: 650 MW: base-load 6.9

Pulverized coal: 650 MW: mid-load 9.0

Gas combined cycle mid-load 6.1

Wind onshore: 100MW 8.5

Wind offshore: 400 MW 15.3

Photovoltaic: 150 MW (Arizona): 21.2 (~12 in 2012)

Calculation based on Data form US Department of Energy 2010, (Currency conversion 2010 $/€ = 0.755)

2010 levelized cost of electricity

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The Value of CSP Electricity

Components of value:

1. kWh’s of electrical energy

2. Contribution to meeting peak capacity needs

3. ‘Services’ to support grid operation

Conclusions:

– Must evaluate at system level

– Value of storage increases as more variable renewables on system

– All 3 components of value can be significant

– Subsidy schemes need to reflect the price signals from competitive electricity markets

– Auxiliary firing as transition technology

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How to reduce costs?

Estimates based on detailed engineering studies • Mass production and scaling (25 - 30%) • Technology improvements (20 - 30 % )

Breakthroughs in – Front Surface Reflectors (Lifetime) – Heat Transfer Fluids for higher temperature (Stability and costs) – Advanced Solar Power Cycles (Solarized Design) – Storage Systems (Adaptation to Temperature and Heat Transfer Fluid)

LEC < 9 €cents/kWh realistic based on technology concepts already realized in lab-scale today

Rate of cost reduction depends on learning rate and growth rates. The

authors estimate cost breakeven with fossil fuel between 2021 and 2031 9€cents/kWh for CO2-free dispatchable grid power is anticipated to be

competitive in some markets in 2025

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CSP in South Africa?

Favourable factors: – Size and quality of solar resource

– Rapidly increasing indigenous demand

– High level of local supply share of CSP technology (up to 60% by value by 2020)

Issues: – Subsidy schemes and continuity of initiatives

– Financing framework

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Benefits of CSP

• CSP has potential to become a zero-carbon, low-cost dispatchble electricity supplier

• CSP can potentially reduce the amount of (still expensive and inefficient) electric storage systems (pumped hydro, CAES, Power2Gas) needed in the system

• CSP has a high local supply share creating local value and jobs

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Challenges

• parity with fossil fuel energy in the next 10 to 15 years

• grid infrastructure and market mechanisms to integrate large fraction of CSP

• appropriate political and economic boundary conditions in to support long term investments in low-carbon technologies

Recommendations • Develop technical CSP assessment competence in South

Africa – Access to CSP plants of international bidders

– Modeling capabilities

– Test infrastructure

• Decide on the best CSP technology option for South Africa

• Create a sustainable market opportunity for it in South Africa

• Enforce local supply share in future bids

• Support local industry to become part of the local supply chain

• Integrate academic and industrial research in a new programm

27

23

Thank you very much.

Contakt: robert.pitz-paal@dlr.de

Back-up material

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Cooling tower91.8%

Steam cycle6.1%

Mirror washing2.0%

Potable water0.1%

How does CSP react under desert conditions?

Water consumption

Washing (no recycling yet) 75 l / MWh (low soil.) 30 l /m² year (mirror surface) 0,5 l/m² per wasching cycle Rainfall Cairo = 25 l/m²year

Reflector Soiling • Cleaning of CSP collectors

on a weekly basis,

• PV Systems on a monthly basis in desert environment

• Soiling depends strongly on site (and seasonal) conditions. Variations can be in the order of a factor 2-3

• 5% average soiling leads to revenue losses of 3-6 $/m²year (depending on electricity price)

• Cleaning need 20 – 40 l/m² year

Reflector Degradation?

Glass mirrors have proven high

robustness over >25 years in

operation

Front surface mirrors are more

sensible

DLR has established

accelerated aging methods for

specific reflector types

Dry cooling

Recycling

30

31

Rate of cost reduction depends on learning rate

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1 10 100 1000Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Re

alti

ve c

ost

re

du

ctio

n

10 % Learning rate

20 % learning rate