concealed carry permit holders across the united states: 2018 · four states now have over 1...

ReportfromtheCrimePreventionResearchCenter

ConcealedCarryPermitHoldersAcrosstheUnitedStates:2018*

JohnR.Lott,Jr.

President

johnrlott@crimeresearch.org

484-802-5373

August14,2018

• RujunWangandRogerLottprovidedvaluableresearchassistanceinproducingthisreport.

TableofContents

SUMMARY 3

THEEXPONENTIALGROWTHINTHENUMBEROFPERMITS 5

THECHANGINGGENDERANDRACEOFPERMITHOLDERS 24

EVIDENCETHATLOSANGELESCOUNTYOFFICIALSDISCRIMINATEAGAINST

HISPANICSANDWOMENWHENGIVINGOUTPERMITS 31

EXAMPLESOFPEOPLEWHOAREFACINGDEATHTHREATS

AREPREVENTEDFROMGETTINGPERMITSINSTATES

WITHDISCRETIONARYPERMITTINGRULES 18

PERMITHOLDERSAREEXTREMELYLAW-ABIDING 33

DETERRINGCRIME 37

WHYisTHENUMBEROFPERMITSINCREASING 40

Table1:NUMBERSOFPERMITSBYSTATE 12

Table2:PERCENTOFADULTPOPULATIONWITHPERMITSBYSTATE 15

Table3:PERMITFEESBYSTATE 18

Table4:REVOCATIONRATESFORPERMITHOLDERS 35

DATASOURCESFORNUMBEROFPERMITS,PERMITFEES,ANDLENGTHOF

PERMITS 43

Appendixonratesthatpermitholdersareconvictedofviolentcrime 53

AppendixonAcademicResearch 56

AcademicAdvisoryBoard 59

Summary

Despitetheexpectationsofmanyafterthe2016elections,thenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitshascontinuedincreasing.In2018,thenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitssoaredtonowover17.25million–a273%increasesince2007.7.14%ofAmericanadultshavepermits.Unlikesurveysthatmaybeaffectedbypeople’sunwillingnesstoanswersomepersonalquestions,concealedhandgunpermitdataistheonlyreally“harddata”thatwehaveongunownershipacrosstheUnitedStates.Still,anevenlargernumberofpeoplecarrybecausein14statespeopledon’tneedapermittocarryinallorvirtuallyallthosestates.

Amongthefindingsofourreport:

■ Lastyear,despitethecommonperceptionthatgrowthinthenumberofpermitholderswouldstopafterthe2016election,thenumberofpermitsgrewbyabout890,000.

■ OutsidetherestrictivestatesofCaliforniaandNewYork,about8.63%oftheadultpopulationhasapermit.

■ Infifteenstates,morethan10%ofadultshavepermits,upfromjustelevenlastyear.

■ Alabamahasthehighestrate—22.1%.Indianaissecondwith17.9%,andSouthDakotaisaclosethirdwith17.2%.

■ Fourstatesnowhaveover1millionpermitholders:Florida,Georgia,Pennsylvania,andTexas.

■ Another14stateshaveadoptedconstitutionalcarryinalloralmostalloftheirstate,meaningthatapermitisnolongerrequired.However,becauseoftheseconstitutionalcarrystates,thenationwidegrowthinpermitsdoesnotpaintafullpictureoftheoverallincreaseinconcealedcarry.

■ Permitscontinuedtogrowmuchfasterforwomenandminorities.Between2012and2018,thepercentofwomenwithpermitsgrew111%fasterforwomenandthepercentofblackswithpermitsgrew20%fasterthanforwhites.PermitsforAsiansgrew29%fasterthanforwhites.

■ Concealedhandgunpermitholdersareextremelylaw-abiding.InFloridaandTexas,permitholdersareconvictedofmisdemeanorsandfeloniesatone-sixthoftherateatwhichpoliceofficersareconvicted.

TheExponentialGrowthintheNumberofPermits

Figures1aandbshowhowthepercentageofadultswithconcealedhandgunpermitshasbeengrowingexponentiallyovertime.Therewere2.7millionconcealedhandgunpermitholdersin1999,4.6millionin2007,8millionin2011,11.1millionin2014,andnow17.25millionin2017.Thegrowthinpermitshasbeencontinuous.

Atthesametimethattherehasbeenanexponentialgrowthinpermits,therehasbeenagenerallineardeclineinmurderandviolentcrimerates.Murderratesfellfrom5.7to5.3per100,000,a7%drop.Overallviolentcrimefellby24percent.Meanwhile,thepercentageofadultswithpermitssoaredbyfivefold.Suchsimpleevidencebyitselfisn’tmeanttoshowthatconcealedhandgunpermitsreduceviolentcrimerates,asmanyfactorsaccountforchangesincrimerates,butonlythattheredoesn’tseemtobeanyobviouspositiverelationshipbetweenpermitsandcrime.

Overtheyears,moreandmorestateshaveadoptedlawsallowingindividualstoobtainconcealedcarrypermits.Illinoiswasthelaststatetodoso,issuingitsfirstpermitsinMarch2014.EvenWashington,D.C.finallyenactedaconcealedhandgunpermitlawinSeptember2014.Today,permittedconcealedhandgunsareallowedineveryjurisdictionoftheUnitedStates.Someoftheincreaseinpermitsinearlieryearswasduetomorestateshavingpermittedconcealedhandguns.

Buttherulesvarygreatlyfromstatetostate,andgenerallystateshavemadeiteasierovertimetogetpermits.Therearenofeesortrainingrequirementsinthefourteenstatesthatdonotrequirepermitsinalloralmostalltheirstate.Theaveragefeeforafive-yearpermitis$64.Californiaisatthehighendofthespectrum,charginguptoa$385feeandrequiring16hoursoftraining.Thetrainingcostsalsovarywidely.Ifprivatetrainersareallowed,thecostscouldbeaslowas$250.Butsomejurisdictionsrequirethatapplicantsgothroughthesametrainingaslawenforcement,andcostscanbeover$1,000.Applicantsmustalsodemonstratetotheirlocalsheriffthattheyreallyneedagun.InmanypartsofCalifornia,permitsonlygotothemostpoliticallyconnectedapplicants.Bycontrast,SouthDakotahasnotrainingrequirementandchargesonly$10forafour-yearpermit.Similarly,Pennsylvaniahasnotrainingrequirementandcharges$19forafive-yearpermit.Youjustneedtobe21andpassabackgroundcheck.

Alotofchangesinfeesareoccurringthisyear.Texasjustreduceditsfeefrom

$140to$40andFloridafrom$60to$55.Theaveragefeeforstatepermitsfellby6%from2017,droppingto$63.81(seeTable3).

Notsurprisingly,concealedcarryismuchmorepopularinstateswherepermitsarerelativelyinexpensiveandeasytoobtain.Texashasseendramaticgrowthinthenumberofpermitsafterthedropinfeesandreductionintrainingrequirements,withitmovingfromthestatewiththethirdmostpermitstosecond.

Thisreportwillfocusonchangesinthenumberofconcealedcarrypermits.Fromacrimepreventionstandpoint,theimportantthingiswhetherpeopleactuallycarryguns,notmerelywhethertheyareallowedtodoso.

Allstatesnowallowconcealedcarry.Andtheyareallissuingmorepermits.Thelongerthatconcealedcarrylawshavebeenineffect,themoretimethatpeoplehavehadtoapplyforandreceivepermits.ButPresidentObama’selectionin2008alsoseemstohavebeenamajorfactor.ManyhavereferredtoObamaasthebestgunsalesmanever.NotonlydidObama’spresidencyincreasegunsales,italsoincreasedthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermits.

ConventionalwisdomheldthatthesharpriseingunsalesduringObama’spresidencywasdriven,atleastinpart,bythethreatofguncontrol.That’swhyeveryoneexpectedgunsalestodeclineafterTrump’svictory.

Someevidenceindicatesthatgunsaleshavecooleddown.TheNationalInstantCriminalBackgroundCheckSystem(NICS)hasseenaslightdrop-offinbackgroundcheckscomparedtolastyear.1Duringthefirstfivemonthsof2017,backgroundchecksweredownabout9.3%(998,672)comparedtothesameperiodin2015.

Buttherearemultipleproblemswithusingbackgroundcheckstomeasurethenumberofpeoplebuyingguns.Somepeopleundergomultiplecheckstobuymultipleguns,butsometimesmultiplegunsaresoldwithasinglecheck.

1TheNICSbackgroundchecksystemdoesdifferentiatebackgroundchecksforconcealedhandgunpermitsfromothertypesofbackgroundchecks.Yet,thepermitestimatefromtheNICSchecksconsistentlyimpliesamuchhighernumberofpermitsthansuppliedbythestatesthemselves.Forexample,Texassaysthattherewere1,200,746activepermitsasofMay31st2017,buttheNICSsystemscounts1,413,621backgroundchecksforthepermitsystem,aneighteenpercentdifference.ThatgapisduetopeoplemovingfromTexas,dying,andhavingtheirpermitsrevoked,thoughthosereasonsdon’texplaintheentire200,000difference.Whileourestimateshowsthatthereareover17.25millionpermits,summinguptheNICSpermitchecksgivesanumbernearerto30million.

Furthermore,peoplewhohavealreadypassedaconcealedcarrybackgroundcheckarenotalwaysrequiredtoundergoanotheronewhentheybuyagun.

Pollingisanotherproblematicmethodofmeasuringgunownership.Whenaskediftheyownagun,manypeoplemaybereluctanttoanswertruthfully.Theymayfeelthatit'snoneofthepollster'sbusiness,orbeafraidtoanswerbecauseofmassshootingsordistrustofgovernment.2Somepollsshowanincreaseingunownership,whileoneshowsadecrease.3

Previously,theincreaseinpermitshadbeenrelativelyslow,growingfromroughly2.7millionpermitholdersin1999to4.6millionin2007.ButthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitsexplodedduringtheObamapresidency.InDecember2011,theGovernmentAccountabilityOfficeestimatedthattherewereatleast8millionconcealedhandgunpermits.ByJune2014,itwas11.1million.Now,in2018,thenumberisnowupto17.25million.4

Afterthe2016election,gunsalessloweddownnoticeably.AfterNICSfirearmbackgroundcheckshittheiralltimepeakof27.4millionin2016,theyfellbackto24.96during2017.Yet,whilethegrowthofconcealedhandgunpermitshasslowedaftertheelection,theyhavecontinuedtogrow,increasingby890,000permitsthisyear.

Whileconcealedhandgunpermitdataisabettermeasureofchanginggun

2Thereareanumberofpollsthatshowthisincreasingdistrustofgovernment.ThePewResearchCenterdescribesthetrustingovernmenta“nearhistoriclows.”Seeforexample,PewResearchCenter,PublicTrustinGovernment:1958-2014,November132014(http://www.people-press.org/2014/11/13/public-trust-in-government/).3SeveralNBCNews/WallStreetJournalpollsoverthelastyearshowthatabout47%to48%ofAmericanhouseholdsownagun.Itisupfrom44%in1999.AnotherMonmouthUniversityPollinMarchfoundthat46%ofAmericanslivedinhouseholdswithguns,butifyouaportionthe7%whorefusedtoanswersothatyouassume46%ofthemliveinhouseholdswithoutguns,therewouldbeabout50%thatliveinhomeswithguns.TheonesurveythathasshownaconsistentdropovertimeisbytheGeneralSocialsurvey,whichwentfromthehigh40%rangeintheearly1970stothelow30%levelin2014.CrimePreventionResearchCenter,“Gunownershipremainsat47%,butthatprobablyunderestimatesthetruerate,”March252018(https://crimeresearch.org/2018/03/problems-with-using-the-general-social-survey-to-measure-gun-ownership/).4Thereare16.5millionpermitstoresidentsinthosestates.Somepeopleholdapermitoutsidetheirstatesimplybecauseitisrecognizedinstatesthattheywanttotraveltootherstates.Forsomepeoplethatmightbetheironlypermit.ThetwostatesthatissuealotofpermitsoutsidetherestateareFlorida(225,896)andUtah(487,826).NewHampshire(38,874)alsoseemstohaveasizeablenumber.Forsomeotherstheymightholdmorethanonepermit.Thetotalnumberofpermitholdersisbetween16.5and17.25million.

ownershipratesthanNICSchecksorpolls,itclearlyunderestimatesthetruenumberandgrowthofpeoplewhocanlegallycarryconcealedhandguns.Thescaleofthatunderestimationisincreasingovertime.Therearethreereasonsforthis.

1) Permitsarenotrequiredin12statesaswellasvirtuallyallofArkansasandMontana.Generally,peopleinthesestatesonlyobtainpermitssothattheycancarryconcealedwhentravelingoutsideoftheirhomestate.Withnofeesorotherrequirements,thesestatesareprobablytheoneswhereconcealedcarryismostcommon.Indeed,despitethefactthatthenumberofpeoplewhocarriedundoubtedlywentupsignificantlywhentherewerenolongeranyfeesortrainingrequirementstocarry,permitgrowthintheConstitutionalCarrystateswasonlyhalftherateastheotherstatesthatallowconcealedcarry.

2) Dataonconcealedcarryisnotreadilyavailableforafewstates.Forexample,NewHampshireonlycollectsdataonpermitsissuedtonon-residents.Theyweren'twillingtogiveanexactfigure,onlygivingusaconservativeestimate.AlabamaandNewYorksimplydon’tcollectthisdataatallonthestatelevel,anditisaverycumbersomeprocesstoobtaindatafromalargenumberofindividualcountiesorcities.InthecaseofAlabama,wecollecteddataforcountiesrepresenting37%ofthestate’spopulationandthenassumedthattherateofconcealedcarrywassimilartotherestofthestate.However,thisislikelytounderestimatethetotalnumberofpermits,asconcealedcarryislikelytobelesspopularinthemoreurbancountiesthatwehaddatafor,asopposedtomoreruralcounties.AsimilarprocesswasusedforNewYork.

3) Forsomestates,thedataisoneormoreyearsoldandthusmissestherecent,acceleratedgrowthinpermits.

Asmoreandmorestatesdecidenottorequirepermits,thenumberofpeoplewhocanlegallycarryahandgunwillincreasinglyoutpacethenumberofpermitholders.Thenumberofpeoplewhocarrypermittedconcealedhandgunsisclearlyrelatedtothecostofgettingpermission.Whenthereisnocostwhatsoever,concealedcarrybecomesverypopular.

Duetooldandmissingdata,17.25millionisundoubtedlyanunderestimateofthetotalnumberofAmericanswithpermits.Ontheotherhand,752,596permitsare

“non-residential,”someofwhichareissuedtopeoplewhoalreadyhaveconcealedhandgunpermitsfromtheirhomestates.Mostofthesenon-residentialpermitsareissuedbyUtah(487,826)andFlorida(225,896).

Asshownbythemaponthenextpage,everyregionofthecountryhasbothstatesthatdon'trequirepermitsaswellasstateswhereover10percentofadultshaveconcealedhandgunpermits.

ThereisatleastonecountyinAlabamawherealmosttwo-thirdsoftheadultshaveaconcealedhandgunpermit(Cleburnewith64.6%).In2017,therewerefivecountiesinPennsylvaniathathadabout30%to50%oftheiradultpopulationswithconcealedhandgunpermits:Potter(50.3%),McKean(34.6%),Warren(34.6%),Cameron(31.3%),andArmstrong(30.1%).

Figure2:Percentofadultpopulationwithpermitsbystate

Whileabout7.14%oftheadultpopulationhasconcealedhandgunpermits,oneofthebigquestionsishowfrequentlypermitholdersactuallycarrytheirguns.Thefactthat14statesallowpermitlesscarrydoesn'tmakeitanyeasiertocomeupwithanestimate.ButaPewResearchCenterSurveylastyearmakesitpossibletoestimatethepercentageofAmericanadultswhocarrygunsandhowfrequentlytheycarrythem(“America’sComplexRelationshipWithGuns,”PewResearchCenter,June222017).ThePewnumbersincludebothconcealedandopencarry.Inmoststates,permitsarenotrequiredforopencarry.Itmightberareforsomeonetoopenlycarryahandgunonaregularbasis,butopencarrymayaccountforalargeshareofthosewhocarryagunonoccasion.Thesurveyalsocountspeoplenomattertheirreasonforcarrying,evenifitissimplyforsportontheirwaytooratashootingrangeorhunting.Whatitmeanstocarry"someofthetime"isalsonotclearlydefined.

ThePewsurveythuslikelyoverestimatesthenumberofpeoplewhocarry,especiallythosewhocarryoccasionally.TherearethreerelevantsetsofnumbersfromthePewsurvey:

--30%ofAmericanadultssaythattheyownagun

--72%ofthepeoplewhoownagun,saytheyownahandgunorapistol

--11%ofhandgunownerssaythattheycarryallthetime,26%saytheycarrymostorallthetime,and57percentsaythattheycarryatleastsomeofthetime.

Withalittlemultiplication,wefindthat:

--2.4%saythattheycarryallthetime.

--5.4%carrymostorallthetime.

--12.3%carryatleastsomeofthetime.

Tosummarize,thetotalnumberofpermitsintheUSisatleast17.25million.Addinpeoplewholegallycarrywithoutapermit,andthenumberclearlybecomesmuchlarger.While7.14%oftheadultpopulationhaspermits,thepercentageofAmericanswhosaythattheycarrymostorallthetimeisaboutthreequartersaslargeat5.4%.

Whatdoesthismeaninpractice?Itmeansthatinmostplaceswherepeopleareallowedtocarryaconcealedhandgun,therewillbesomeonecarryingaconcealedhandgun.Iftheprobabilitythatanyonepersonhasaconcealedhandgunpermitis5.4%,inaroomwith10people(assumingthattheprobabilitiesareindependent),theprobabilitythatatleastonepersonwillhaveapermitted

concealedhandgunis43%.Inaroomwith20people,thatprobabilitygoesupto67%.With40,thatprobabilityrisesto89%.

TheComparingPermitIssuingRatesAcrossStates

Asjustnoted,thereisahugevariationintheratethatpermitsaregivenoutbystate.Thefollowingtwotablesprovidemorespecificdetailsonthesedifferences.7.14%oftheadultpopulationhasconcealedhandgunpermits.IfyouexcludetheeightMayIssuestatesandtheDistrictofColumbia(California,Delaware,DC,Hawaii,Maryland,Massachusetts,NewJersey,NewYork,RhodeIsland),wherethereisdiscretiononwhogetspermits,thatraisesthepercentfortheother42statesto10.14%.

ForthevastmajorityoftheUSoutsideofthesecoastalareasitisverylikelythatanyplacethatallowspeopletocarryaconcealedhandgunand

Fifteenstateshavemorethan10%oftheiradultpopulationsandseventeenstateshavelessthan5%.Alabamacontinuestoleadotherstateswiththelargestshareofitsadultpopulationwithpermits,about22%,whileCalifornia,theDistrictofColumbia,Hawaii,Maryland,NewYork,NewJersey,andRhodeIslandallhavelessthanonepercentwithpermits.

Table 1: Number of Permit Holders by State

State Active Permits

Data Updated

Alabama¥ 797,177 State rate based

on 4 large counties in June 2018

Alaska† 11,485 June 22, 2018

Arizona† 333,285 June 24, 2018

Arkansas†† 227,898 February 9, 2018

California 108,000 March 13, 2018

Colorado 433,483 March 31, 2018

Connecticut 267,330 July 2, 2018

Delaware 18,096 January 31, 2018

District of Columbia 1,482 June 29, 2018

Florida

1,931,719 total,

1,705,823 residential

July 31, 2018

Georgia 1,006,946 June 30, 2018

Hawaii - December 31, 2016

Idaho† 121,984 June 18, 2018

Illinois 300,705 June 18, 2018

Indiana 869,829 July 1, 2018

Iowa 289,060 December 31, 2017

Kansas† 85,000 July 5, 2018

Kentucky 374,132 December 31, 2017

Louisiana 204,625 December 31, 2017

Florida is the state that has Florida is the state that has issued the most concealed carry permits at 1.93 million, followed by Texas with 1.314 million.

Maine† 42,000 June 30, 2018

Maryland 20,628 May 31, 2018

Massachusetts 401,452 June 28, 2018

Michigan 628,923 April 2, 2018

Minnesota 284,954 July 31, 2018

Mississippi† 46,598 June 21, 2018

Missouri† 160,184 December 31, 2012

Montana* 52,982 February 6, 2018

Nebraska 61,781 July 1, 2018

Nevada 126,995 May 1, 2018

New Hampshire†

38,874 non-residential/at least 50,000

residential December 31,

New Jersey 1,212 2012-2013

New Mexico 45,115 June 29, 2018

New York¥ 100,549

March to July 2018, Broome,

Herkimer, Nassau, Oneida, Rockland,

and Saratoga Counties were

used to make this calculation for the state outside of New York City.

NYC data was also used.

North Carolina 640,702 June 18, 2018

North Dakota† 48,356 February 8, 2018

Ohio 703,476 March 31, 2018

Oklahoma 287,786 December 31, 2017

Oregon 261,155 February 5, 2018

Pennsylvania 1,310,263 February 9, 2018

Rhode Island 2,288 June 19, 2018

South Carolina 324,923 January 1, 2018

South Dakota 107,276 May 31, 2018

Tennessee 618,752 June 1, 2018

Texas 1,314,432 May 31, 2018

713,550 total,

225,724 residential

June 30, 2018

Vermont† No permits issued

Virginia 398,239 June 18, 2018

Washington 583,001 July 3, 2018

West Virginia† 163,098 January 18, 2017

Wisconsin 333,217 June 15, 2018

Wyoming† 31,994 June 15, 2018

TOTAL 17,248,117

†Stateswherepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.††Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontanaandthevastmajorityofcountiesinArkansas.Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.

¥DataareonlyavailableatthecountylevelforAlabamaorNewYorkState.ForAlabama,wewereabletogetpermitdatainformationforthefollowingcounties:Baldwin,Cullman,Jackson,Jefferson,Madison,andMontgomery.soweassumeda0.1%permittingratebasedonHerkimer,Suffolk,Monroe,andSuffolkCountiesaswellasNewYorkCityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/09/more-misleading-information-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings/.ForNYC,GawkerusedaFOIAreleaseofNYPDlicensees.114pagesofcarrylicenseswith50nameseach=5,700.http://gawker.com/5974190/here-is-a-list-of-all-the-assholes-who-own-guns-in-new-york-city.

Table 2: Ranking States by Percent of the Adult population with Permits

% of Adult Population with concealed carry

permit

Alabama¥ 22.11%

Indiana 17.92%

South Dakota 17.17%

Pennsylvania 13.49%

Georgia 13.28%

Iowa 12.56%

Utah* 12.43%

Tennessee 12.35%

West Virginia† 11.87%

Kentucky 11.38%

Washington 10.45%

Florida* 10.44%

Arkansas†† 10.40%

Colorado 10.34%

Oklahoma 10.21%

Idaho† 9.95%

Connecticut 9.82%

North Dakota† 8.79%

South Carolina 8.59%

Michigan 8.44%

North Carolina 8.35%

Oregon 8.25%

Ohio 8.13%

Wisconsin 7.72%

Wyoming† 7.70%

Massachusetts 7.59%

Minnesota 6.95%

Montana†† 6.69%

Texas 6.57%

Arizona† 6.42%

Virginia 6.29%

Louisiana 6.04%

Nevada 5.67%

New Hampshire†* 4.80%

Nebraska 4.50%

Kansas† 4.08%

Maine† 4.02%

Missouri† 3.55%

Illinois 3.20%

New Mexico 2.97%

Delaware 2.48%

Alaska† 2.20%

Mississippi† 2.17%

New York¥ 0.67%

Maryland 0.46%

California 0.37%

Rhode Island 0.28%

District of Columbia 0.27%

New Jersey 0.02%

Hawaii 0.00% (0.02% if include permits for private security)

Vermont† NotApplicable

†Stateswerepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.Thesenumberswilldramaticallyunderestimatethetrueratethatgunsarelegallycarriedconcealedinthesestates.

††Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontana(areasoutsideofcitylimits).MostcountiesinArkansaswillnotprosecutepeopleforcarryingwithoutapermit.Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.

*OnlyFlorida’s,NewHampshire’sandUtah'sresidentialpermitsareincludedhere.

¥Estimatesmadeusingasampleofpermitsfromsomecountieswithinthestate.

Table3:CostofGettingPermitsbyState2018

State PermitType InitialHandgunCarryPermitFee

LengthPermitisValid(years)

Costtocarryfor5years

Alabama Concealedpistolpermit

$5-$20peryear(VariesbyCounty)

1-5years(chosenbyapplicant)

$25-$100(VariesbyCounty)

Alaska†

Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates

$87 5 $87

Arizona†

$60 5 $60

Arkansas†

$142.11;age65+$90.61(Includeson-lineapplicationandbackgroundcheckfee.)

5 $142.11;age65+$90.61

CaliforniaConcealedcarryweaponslicense(MayIssueonly)

Localfeenottoexceed$100fornewlicense.;StateDOJchargesanother$95.Localfingerprintingcostsofbetween$20and$40.Afewjurisdictionsrequirepsychologicalscreeningtestthatcanrunupto$150.Trainingfeesinsomeareasareashighasover$1,000.Thelicensingauthoritymaychargeanadditionalfee,nottoexceed$25,forprocessingtheapplicationforalicenserenewal.

2 $150to$300(VariesbyIssuingAgency)

Colorado Concealedhandgunpermit

$52.5plusadditionalfees(VariesbyCounty) 5

$52.5plusadditionalfees(VariesbyCounty)

ConnecticutPermittocarrypistolorrevolverpermit

$192=$70(TemporaryLocalPermitCost)+$75(StatePermitCost)+$12(FederalProcessingFee)+$35(StateProcessingFee).

5 $192

DelawareConcealeddeadlyweaponpermits

$65forissuing;$65forrenewal

initialapplicationvalidfor3years;renewalevery5yearsthereafter

DistrictofColumbia

Concealedcarrypistollicense

$110=$75(ApplicationFee)+$35(FingerprintProcessingFee)

2 $275

FloridaConcealedweaponorfirearmslicense

$97=$55(InitialLicenseFee)+$42(FingerprintFee)

7 $69.3

Georgia Firearmslicense $75averagefee(VariesbyCounty) 5 $75averagefee

(VariesbyCounty)

Hawaii Licensetocarryhandgun $42

Individualpermitstoacquirehandgunsarerequiredforeachtransactionandmustbeusedwith10daysofissue.Apermittoacquireshotgunsandriflesisgoodforoneyearfromthedateofissueforanynumberoftransactions.

Idaho†

$20plusadditionalfees(VariesbyCounty) 5

$20plusadditionalfees(VariesbyCounty)

Illinois Concealedcarryhandgunlicense

$150for5yearsforresidents;$300for5yearsfornon-residents

Indiana Licensetocarryhandgun

4yearPersonalProtection:$10($5Refundable)forlocalfeeand$30forstatefee;LifetimePersonalProtection/NoCurrentLicense:$50($30Refundable)forlocalfeeand$75forstatefee;AllNEWlicenseapplicationsincura$11.95feeforIDEMIAElectronicFingerprinting.

Iowa Permittocarryweapons $50 5 $50

Kansas†

$112=$79.5(AttorneyGeneral)+$32.5(LocalSheriff'sOffice)

4 $140

KentuckyPermittocarryconcealedhandgun

$60=$20(LocalSheriff'sOffice)+$40(KentuckyStateTreasurer)

LouisianaConcealedhandguncarrypermit

$125;age65+$62.5 5 $125;age65+$62.5

Maine†

Resident,$35foranoriginalapplicationand$20forarenewal;Nonresident,$60foranoriginalorrenewalapplication

4$40forresidents;$75fornon-residents

Maryland Handgunwearandcarrypermit

$75plusfingerprintfees

initialapplicationvalidfor2years;renewalevery3yearsthereafter

$125=$75(Initial)+$50(Renewal)

Massachusetts Licensetocarry $100 6 $83.3

Michigan Concealedpistollicense $100 4-5 $100

Minnesota Permittocarrypistol

nottoexceed$100(VariesbyCounty) 5 $100

Mississippi†

$112 5 $112

Missouri†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates

nottoexceed$100forapplication

5 $100

Montana*

Concealedcarryhandgunpermit(Notrequiredoutsidecitylimits)

$55=$50(IssuanceFee)+$5(FingerprintProcessingFee);$25forrenewal

4 $61.3

NebraskaPermittocarryaconcealedhandgun

$100 5 $100

Nevada Concealedcarryhandgunpermit

nottoexceed$60(FBIfeeswillbeextra) 5

$60(FBIfeeswillbeextra,assume$27.50)

NewHampshire†

$10forresident;$100fornonresident 5

$10forresident;$100fornonresident

NewJersey Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $20 2 $50

NewMexicoConcealedhandguncarrypermit

$100=$56(ApplicationFeepaidtoNMDPS)+$44(BackgroundCheckpaidtoCogent)forapplication;$75=$31(ApplicationFeepaidtoNMDPS)+$44(BackgroundCheckpaidtoCogent)forrenewal

4 $118.8

NewYork¥Firearmslicensetocarryconcealed

Usuallyabout$100,butvariesbycounty=permitfeegenerallynottoexceed$10+safetyclassesareusuallyalsorequired

5 $10(VariesbyCounty)

NewYorkCity

Concealedcarryhandgunlicense

$427=$340(LicenseFee)+$87(FingerprintProcessingFee)

3 $711.7

NorthCarolina Concealedhandgunpermit

$90=$80(Non-refundableFee)+$10(FingerprintingProcessingFee)

NorthDakota†

$60 5 $60

OhioLicensetocarryaconcealedhandgun

$67 5 $67

Oklahoma Selfdefenseactlicense

$100for5-yearlicense;$200for10-yearlicense 5 $100

Oregon Concealedhandgunlicense

$65fornew;$50forrenewal 4 $77.5

Pennsylvania Licensetocarryhandgun $20 5 $20

RhodeIslandLicensetocarryaconcealableweapon

$40 4 $50

SouthCarolina Concealedweaponpermit $50 5 $50

SouthDakota ConcealedPistolPermit $10 5 $10

Tennessee Handguncarrypermit

$100for8-yearlicense;$300forlifetimelicense 8 $62.5

Texas Licensetocarryahandgun

$40(asofSeptember12017) 5 $40

Utah Concealedfirearmpermit

$52forresident;$62fornonresident 5 $52forresident;

$62fornonresident

Vermont†

Nopermitsrequired/doesnotissuepermits

N/A N/A N/A

Virginia Concealedhandgunpermit

nottoexceed$50forresident;nottoexceed$100fornonresident

5$50forresident;$100fornonresident

Washington Concealedpistollicense

$48(somelawenforcementagencieswilllaminateyourlicenseforanextracharge)

WestVirginia†

$100=$75(ApplicationFee)+$25(ifapproved) 5 $100

Wisconsin Concealedweaponlicense

$40=$30(ApplicationFee)+$10(BackgroundCheckFee)

Wyoming†

$64 5 $64

Averagecostofbecauseofthepermittocarrywithinastate(ThefeeinpureConstitutionalCarrystatesiszero.SincepermitsarerequiredinpartsofArkansasandMontana,thestatepermitfeesareused.)

$63.81

Averagecostofbecauseofthepermittocarrywithinastate(ThefeeinpureConstitutionalCarrystatesandforthosepartsofArkansasandMontanathatdon’trequireapermittocarryiszero.)

$59.82

†Stateswherepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.††Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontanaandmostcountiesinArkansaswillnotprosecutepeoplefornothavingapermit.Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.

TheChangingGenderandRaceofPermitHolders

Twelvestates,withabout6.8millionpermitholdersbetweenthem,havereportedpermitdatabygenderfor2018.Amongthosestates,womenaveraged26%ofpermitholders.Thestatesrepresentallregionsofthecountry:Arizona,Connecticut,Florida,Illinois,Indiana,Louisiana,Maryland,Minnesota,Oklahoma,Tennessee,TexasandWashingtonState.(Ourpreviousestimateofthepercentofpermitsheldbywomenwashigher,butwehadmorestatethatreportedthosenumbers.)

Foreightstates,wehavethedatatomakeacomparisonoveratleastasix-yearperiod.Allofthesestatesexperiencedageneralupwardtrendinfemalepermitholders,thoughOklahomaandTexasexperiencedslightdropsin2018.

■ Arizona:thepercentageofpermitholderswhoarewomenrosefrom20.7%in2012to21.2%in2016and22.0%in2018.

■ Connecticut:from24.3%in2012to33.3%in2016.

■ Florida:from18%inMay2012to24.1%inMay2016and26.3%inJune2018.

■ Indiana:from18.0%inJune2012to23.9%inJune2016and27.4%inMarch2018.

■ Louisiana:from18.3%in2009to24.1%in2016and25.6%in2018.

■ NorthCarolina:from21.3%inJune2012to27.5%inJune2016to28.7%inMarch2017.

■ NorthDakota:from11.2%in2010to24.9%in2014.

■ Oklahoma:from28.9%in2012to36.3%in2016to34.1%in2018.

■ Tennessee:from25.9%in2012to34.3%in2016to34.9in2018.

■ Texas:from22.00%in2012to28.0%in2016to27.5%in2018.

■ WashingtonState:between2005and2014,“thegrowthrateforwomengettingnewpermits[was]twiceasfastasthatofmen.”5Wedon’tknowtheexactpercentagesinthosetwoyears,butby2017,womenheld25.2%ofpermits.

Intheeightstateswherewehavedatabygenderforboth2012and2018,thenumberofpermitsincreasedby207%forwomenandby103%formen––a101%fasterrateamongwomen.

Fivestateshavedataonpermitissuancebyracefor2012and2018.Inthesestates(Arizona,Connecticut,Florida,Oklahoma,andTexas)thenumberofpermitsgrewata20%fasterrateforblacksthanforwhites.

Severalstatesprovidedetaileddatasince2002orearlier.Texasprovidesdetailedinformationonbothraceandgenderfrom1996through2014.6Thedataindicatethatpermittinghasincreasedfastestamongblacks,followedcloselybyAsians.Whilewhitesstillholdthevastmajorityofpermits,thenumberofblackpermitholdershasgrownmorethantwiceasquicklyasthenumberofwhitepermitholders.

AfterTexasreduceditsminimumtraininghoursfromtentofourin2012,thegrowthinpermit-holdingbyAsians,blacks,andAmericanIndiansreachedbyfaritsmostrapidphase.Whilethenumberofblackswithpermitsgrewby71%inthefouryearspriortothereducedtrainingrequirement,itgrewbyalmost140%inthefouryearsafter2012.ThegrowthrateofpermitsforAmericanIndiansalsodoubledafterthetrainingrequirementswerereduced.

Whenpermitdataisbrokendownbyraceandgender,wefindthatratesofpermitholdingamongAmericanIndian,Asian,black,andwhitefemalesallgrewmuchfasterthantheratesformalesinthoseracialgroups.Concealedcarryhasincreasedmostrapidlyamongblackfemales.From2000to2016,therateofgrowthwas2.22timesfasterthanamongwhitefemales.

NorthCarolinahasdetaileddataontheraceofpermitholdersfrom1996to2016.

5JustinMayo,BrianM.Rosenthal,andErikaSchultz,“Concealed-carrypermitsskyrocket,especiallyforwomen,”TheSeattleTimes,May312014(http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/concealed-carry-permits-skyrocket-especially-for-women/).6Thosewhoindicatedthattheywereofmultipleraceswereexcludedbecausepeople’swillingnesstosaythattheyareofmultipleraceshaschangedovertime.Thusitisnotpossibletoknowhowmuchofthechangeisduetopeople’swillingnesstoidentifythemselvesthiswayoranactualchangeinthenumberofpeopleinthiscategory.

Again,Asiansshowthelargestgrowth,followedbyAmericanIndiansandthenBlacks.Thegrowthrateforblacksisstillabouttwiceasfastasthatforwhites.

Oklahomadatafrom2002to2016alsoshowasimilarpattern.AsiansandAmericanIndianstiedforthefastestgrowthrate.ThegrowthinthenumberofBlackspermitswasabout50%greaterthanthegrowthforwhitepermitholders.

EvidencethatLosAngelesCountyOfficialsdiscriminateagainstHispanicandWomenwhengivingoutpermits

In2013,LAWeeklyobtainedalistofthe341concealedcarrypermitholdersinLosAngelesCounty,California.7Thatisonlyabout0.0045%ofthe7.7millionadultslivinginthecountyin2013.LAWeeklypointedoutthatthepeoplegivenpermitswerejudges,reservedeputysheriffs,andasmallgroupwhogavecampaigncontributionsorgiftstothen-SheriffLeeBaca.SomethingthatLAWeeklydidn’tdowaslookatthelisttodeterminetheraceofthoseluckyfewgettingpermits.InLosAngelesCountyin2013,about48.1%ofthepeoplelivingtherewereHispanic,9%wereblack,and50.7%women.Tochecktheraceofthosewhoreceivedpermits,weusedtwoapproaches.First,wedidGooglesearchesaswellassearchesonsocialmediatofindinformationonpeople.Usingthis,weidentifiedtheraceof135people:4Hispanics(3%),7blacks(5.2%),15Asians(11.1%),and109whites.Only16werefemales(11.9%).Hispanicsandwomenhadmuchlowerpermittingratesthanthegeneralpopulationandtheratesthatthosegroupsobtainedconcealedhandgunpermitsinplacesthatdon’tallowauthoritiesdiscretionindeterminingwhetherpeoplehaveajustifiableneedtocarryagunforprotection.Asianswerenotasdifferentthantheir14.4%ofthepopulationin2013.Forall341names,weusedawebsitethatlistedtheprobabilitythatthelastnameisHispanic.8WeincludedanylastnameasHispanicwhentheprobabilityofthembeingHispanicwasatleast5%.Doingthatimpliedthatatotalofjust22ofthe341peoplecouldbeHispanic(6.5%),stillanumberdramaticallylowerthantheirshareofthepopulation.Therearethreenamesthatwecouldn’tclassifyasmaleorfemale(Bobbie,Tracy,Robbie),butifyouassumethattheyareallwomen,only26ofthe341permitholdersarewomen(7.6%).Bycomparison,thisisdramaticallylowerthan29%ofthepermitholdersbeingwomenthatwefoundforeightstatesin2012.Eightstatesthathadsimilarinformationonraceshowedthat11%ofpermitholderswereblack.

7GeneMaddaus,“Who'sPackingHeatInL.A.County?SheriffLeeBaca'sGunPermitListIncludesManyPersonalFriends,”LAWeekly,February142013(http://www.laweekly.com/news/whos-packing-heat-in-la-county-sheriff-lee-bacas-gun-permit-list-includes-many-personal-friends-4174664).8Thewebsitethatweusediscalled“MostcommonlastnamesforLatinosintheU.S.”(http://names.mongabay.com/data/hispanic.html).

PreviousworkthatwehavedonehasdiscussedtheimpactofhowguncontrolinChicagoonthepoorobtaininghandguns.9InChicagoandDC,thezipcodesthathavegunsunderDemocratrulestendtobehigherincomeandmuchmoreheavilywhiteareas. PartialListofPeoplewhoarefacingdeaththreatsandpreventedfromgettingpermitsinstateswithdiscretionarypermittingrules

--CasesinSanFrancisco10

--Womanwhohadacriminalprotectiveorder(2014)

--Correctionsofficer,deniedthreetimes,lasttimeinOctober2013.Inmateshadclearlythreatenedhim.

--FormerDelNorteCounty(California)deputydistrictattorneywhowasworriedthatpastfelonsthathehadputinprisonwouldharmhim.

--NewJersey

--IsraelAlbertAlmeidahadevidencethata“tenant'slive-inboyfriendthreatenedtokillhim”(2015).11

--MarcStephensfacedmultipledeaththreats(2013)12

--Lt.Col.TerryRussell“appliedforaconcealedcarrypermitasmilitarypersonnelandespeciallypersonnelthatworkathighlysensitive

9JohnR.Lott,Jr.,“Canpoorpeoplebetrustedwithguns?FoxNews,March122013(http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/03/12/can-poor-people-be-trusted-with-guns.html).10MattDrange,“Wanttocarryaconcealedgun?LiveinSacramento,notSanFrancisco,”Reveal,June122015(https://www.revealnews.org/article/want-to-carry-a-concealed-gun-live-in-sacramento-not-san-francisco/).11JoeCarlson,“SecondAmendmentgroupbacksAndoverTwp.man’sbidtocarrygun,”NewJerseyHerald,March12015(http://www.njherald.com/story/28230557/second-amendment-group-backs-andover-twp-mans-bid-to-carry-gun#).12ChrisEger,“NewJerseymanfightsstategunpermitlawallthewaytoSupremeCourt,”Guns.com,January302017(http://www.guns.com/2017/01/30/new-jersey-man-fights-state-gun-permit-law-all-the-way-to-supreme-court/).

areas(likethePicatinnyArmory)areathigherriskofterroristattacks.”(2016)13

--NewYork

--JohnStossel,FoxNewsHost,NewYorkCity2013:Deniedapermitdespiteprovidingevidenceofmanydeaththreats.14

--SeanMcCarthyservedasakeywitnessthatsentmembersofthe“PagansOutlawMotorcycleClub”toprison.In2017,hetriedtogetapermitashewasworriedthathefacedretribution.15

--Washington,DC

--In2016,CorrectionsOfficersRobertSmith,RonaldDuBerry,HaroldBennette,andMauriceCurtis,whohadallreceiveddeaththreatsfrominmatesthattheyhadonceguarded,werefinallygrantedpermitlicensesbutonlyafteracasethattheytooktotheDCCircuitCourt.16

PermitHoldersareExtremelyLaw-abiding

Itisveryrareforpermitholderstoviolatethelaw.Inordertoappreciatehowincrediblyraretheseviolationsare,oneneedstorememberthatthereareover17.25millionpermitholdersintheUS.Indeed,itisimpossibletothinkofanyothergroupintheUSthatisanywherenearaslaw-abiding.

Togetanideaofjusthowlaw-abidingconcealedhandgunpermitholdersare,weneedonlycomparethemtopolice.AccordingtoastudyinPoliceQuarterly,

13SamHoober,“CCWWeekend:WhatConstitutes“GoodCause”InMay-IssueStates,”November52016(http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/05/ccw-weekend-what-constitutes-good-cause-in-may-issue-states/).14"TheInsaneGunLawsofNYC,"FoxNews,November162013(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24jRaxXT7JQ).15MichaelO’Keeffe,“Formerclubmanagersuescountyovergunpermitdenial,”Newsday,March302017(http://www.newsday.com/long-island/former-club-manager-sues-county-over-gun-permit-denial-1.13340941).16FoxNews,"DCmustletex-prisonguardspackheat,federalcourtrules,"FoxNews,June32016(http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/06/03/dc-must-let-ex-prison-guards-pack-heat-federal-court-rules.html).

policecommittedanaverageof703crimesperyearfrom2005to2007.17113oftheseinvolvedfirearmsviolations.Thisislikelytobeanunderestimate,sincenotallpolicecrimesreceivemediacoverage.Theauthorsofthestudymayalsohavemissedsomemediareports.

Withabout685,464full-timepoliceofficersintheU.S.from2005to2007,wefindthattherewereabout103crimesperhundredthousandofficers.FortheU.S.populationasawhole,thecrimeratewas37timeshigher--3,813crimesperhundredthousandpeople.

Perhapspolicecrimesareunderreportedduetoleniencyfromfellowofficers,butthevastcrimegapbetweenpoliceandthegeneralpopulaceisindisputable.

Evengiventhelowconvictionrateforpolice,concealedcarrypermitholdersareevenmorelaw-abidingthanpolice.BetweenOctober1,1987andJune302017,Floridarevoked11,189concealedhandgunpermitsformisdemeanorsorfelonies.18Thisisanannualrevocationrateof10.4permitsper100,000.InTexasin2016(thelastyearforwhichdataisavailable),148permitholderswereconvictedofafelonyormisdemeanor–aconvictionrateof12.3per100,000.19

CombiningFloridaandTexasdata,wefindthatpermitholdersareconvictedofmisdemeanorsandfeloniesatlessthanasixthoftherateforpoliceofficers.

Amongpolice,firearmsviolationsoccuratarateof16.5per100,000officers.AmongpermitholdersinFloridaandTexas,therateisonly2.4per100,000.Thatisjust1/7thoftherateforpoliceofficers.Butthere'snoneedtofocusonTexasandFlorida—thedataaresimilarinotherstates.

17PhilStinson,JLiederbachandTLFreiburger,“ExitStrategy:AnExplorationofLate-StagePoliceCrime,”PoliceQuarterlyDecember201013:413-435.Dataonthenumberoffull-timelawenforcementemployeesisavailablefromtheFBIUniformCrimeReportsfrom2005to2007,Table74(https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_74.html).18ConcealedWeaponorFirearmLicenseSummaryReport,October1,1987-June302017(http://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf).19Theconvictionratesofpermitholdersduringthatyearisavailablehere(https://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/Reports/ConvictionRatesReport2016.pdf).

Table4:RevocationRatesforpermitholdersforanyreasonin2017,revocationsforfirearmviolationsarelessthan1/10ththeratethatexcludesrevocationsforchangingresidency.

State Rate Source

Arizona(YearbeforeAugust5,2018) 0.363%

http://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/ReportsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB8725

6E6600773612

Colorado** 0.099%http://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/ReportsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB8725

6E6600773612

Florida(yearbeforeJuly31,2018) 0.065%

https://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdfandyearearlier

Kentucky 0.19%https://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/downlo

ad/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf

Louisiana 0.084%https://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/downlo

ad/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf

Maryland 0.658%PatrickMccrory,MarylandStatePoliceLicensing

Division

Massachusetts 0.079%

MichaelaDunne,ManagerofLawEnforcement&JusticeServices,MassachusettsDepartmentof

CriminalJusticeInformationServices(617)660-4682

Michigan 0.305%https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A

nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf

Minnesota* 0.217%

https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/ooc/news-releases/Pages/BCA-releases-2017-permit-to-carry-

annual-report.aspx

Ohio 0.062%https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A

nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf

Oklahoma 0.022%

annual-report.aspx

Tennessee 0.075%https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A

nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf

Texas 0.013%

annual-report.aspx

Utah 0.028%https://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/CPL_A

nnual_Report_01-04-2018_611131_7.pdf

WashingtonState 0.038% TeresaClark,WashingtonDepartmentofLicensing,PublicDisclosure

Wisconsin 0.366%https://www.doj.state.wi.us/sites/default/files/dles/ccw/2017%20Annual%20CCW%20Statistical%20Re

port.pdf

*Revocationsfornon-trafficviolations.

**Excludesrevocationsforchangeinresidency.

Listedabovearetherecentrevocationratesin16states.Mostoftheseratesincluderevocationsforanyreason,includingpeoplemovingoutofthestate,andforthestateswheretherevocationratesarehigherthanhundredthsofapercentagepointareduetoresidencyrevocations.Peoplecanalsolosetheirpermitsforsometypesoftrafficviolations,forforgettingtohavetheirpermitswiththem,orforbeingchargedwithorconvictedonaviolentmisdemeanororfelony.InOhio,mostoftheserevocationswereapparentlyaresultofhandguncourseteachersnotspendingtherequirednumberofhoursteachingtheirclasses.20

20“Concealedcarryinstructorallegedlygaveout170invalidtrainingcertificates,”TheNews-Herald(Ohio),May252015(http://www.news-herald.com/general-news/20150525/concealed-carry-instructor-allegedly-gave-out-170-invalid-training-certificates);“About50gunpermitsinvalidaftertwoinstructorsaccusedofforgery,”TheColumbusDispatch,July152016(http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/07/14/Concealed-carry-permits-bad.html);LynnThompson,“SilentJusticeforgunpermits,”Bryan(Ohio)Times,February42015(http://www.bryantimes.com/news/local/article_35d9b7bd-10c7-5d86-b9fe-a56843d73d91.html);“CCWInstructorsgetjailforcuttingclassshort,”Lima(Ohio)News,November252014(http://limaohio.com/archive/18890);

Sincepermitholderscommitvirtuallynocrimes,right-to-carrylawscan’tincreaseviolentcrimerates(seeappendix).21

DeterringCrime

Manyfactorsaffectcrimerates:arrestandconvictionrates,policingpolicies,prison,demographics,income,poverty,andeducation.Butconcealedcarrylawsarealsopartofthestory,especiallywhenalargepercentageofthepopulationhaspermits.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofpeer-reviewedacademicresearchbyeconomistsandcriminologistsconcludesthatownershipofpermittedconcealedhandgunscausesareductioninviolentcrime.Thedebateisbetweenthoseclaimingareductionincrimeandthosedenyinganyeffect(forasurveyoftheacademicresearch,seeLott,“Whatabalancingtestwillshowforright-to-carrylaws,”UniversityofMarylandLawReview(2012):1205-1218).

Mostresearch,however,focusesonwhatstatesallowright-to-carry,notthemorerelevantquestionofhowmanypeopleactuallyhavepermits.(Onlypeer-reviewedstudiesbyJohnLottinthesecondandthirdeditionsofMoreGuns,LessCrime[UniversityofChicagoPress,2000and2010]usethenumberofpermitstomeasuretheimpactofconcealedcarrylaws).Empiricaltestsshouldmeasurewhethercrimeratesfellrelativelysharplyinthosestateswiththelargestpercentageofpermitholders.

In2014,thesevenstateswithconstitutionalcarryhadmuchlowerratesofmurderandviolentcrimethandidthesevenjurisdictionswiththelowestpercentagesofpermitholders.Indeed,themurderratewas31percentlowerinthestatesnotrequiringpermits.Theviolentcrimeratewas28percentlower.

Comparedtotherestofthecountry,the25stateswiththehighestconcealedcarryratesexperiencedmarkedlylowerratesofmurderandviolentcrime.

Ofcourse,suchacomparisonisfartoosimplistic.Therearemanyfactorsthatinfluencecrimerates,andsimple,cross-sectionalcomparisonsareunabletoaccountforallofthem.Wecanaccountfordifferencesacrossstatesonlybylookingathowcrimeratesvarybeforeandafterchangesinastate’sconcealedcarrylaws.

21Adetaileddiscussionofthesenumbersandhowthepercentagesarecalculatedisavailablehere(https://crimeresearch.org/2017/07/badly-flawed-misleading-donohue-aneja-weber-study/).

Stateshaveadoptedconcealedhandgunlawsindifferentyearsandissuedpermitsatdifferentrates.Thisallowsforrevealingcomparisons(seeAppendixforalargeandgrowingbodyofpeer-reviewedliterature).Wemustlookacrossstatesandcomparechangesincrimerateswithchangesintheratesofpermitholding.Doingsohasconsistentlyrevealedaverystrongrelationshipbetweenmorepermitsandlessviolentcrime(e.g.,Lott,MoreGuns,LessCrime,UniversityofChicagoPress2010andLott2012).

Ouranalysisheredoesn’tprovidesuchsophisticatedestimates,simplybecausethenecessarydatawillnotbeavailableforatleastacoupleofyears.Thus,thisreportshouldonlybeviewedassuggestive.22

Insteadofjustcomparingstatesthatdon’trequirepermitswiththosethatdo,itisalsopossibletolookjustatstatesthatrequirepermits.Afteraccountingforthepercapitanumberofpolice,newprisonadmissions,anddemographics,thisstatelevelpermitdatasuggeststhateach20percentincreaseintherateofadultswithpermits(aboutonepercentagepoint)isroughlyassociatedwitha15percentdropinthemurderrate.Sincethelateststatelevelcrimedataisonlyavailablethrough2014,the2011and2014.23

Usingpermitandmurderdatafrom2011through2014,wefindthatstateswiththesharpestincreasesinpermitshadthelargestpercentagedropsinmurderrates.A10percentincreaseintheshareoftheadultpopulationwithpermitsreducesthemurderrateby1.4percent.24

22Regressingthenaturallogofthemurderrateonthepercentoftheadultpopulationwithpermits,thenumberoffull-timeswornpoliceofficersper1,000Americans,andatimetrendfinds:

ln(murderrate)=-.2499(7.15)percentofadultswithpermits-.8197(5.50)policeper1,000Americans–0.0023(3.41)PrisonPopulationper100,000people+0.0068(2.51)yeartimetrend-8.95(1.76)Constant

Usingthepercentofthepopulationinprisoninsteadofatimetrendproducedverysimilarresults.

23Toestimatethisweranacouplesimpleregressionsonthemurderrateonthepercentageofadultpopulationwithpermitsaswellaswithandwithoutstateandyearfixedeffects.Thereisalotofnoiseintheseestimatesbothbecausethepermitnumberscomefrommanydifferentyearsaswellastheestimatednumberofmurdersin2013.Theseestimateshaveagreatdealofmeasurementerrorandshouldonlybetakenassuggestive.Thatsaid,thesimplestestimateregressingthemurderrateonthepercentageoftheadultpopulationwithpermitsproducesacoefficientandabsolutet-statisticsof-12.68(1.66).Withfixedeffects,theestimatewas6.8(0.82).24Regressingthepercentchangeinmurderratesonthepercentchangeintheshareoftheadult

populationbetween2011and2014givesusthis:

Percentchangeinmurderrates=-.136(1.38)thepercentchangeintheshareoftheadultpopulation+.212(0.99)Constant

F-statistics=1.92,AdjustedR-squared=0.0242

WeusedtheGAOreportonpercentofthepopulationwithpermitsfor2011(http://www.gao.gov/assets/600/592552.pdf).TherewereobviouserrorsintheGAOreportforMaineandConnecticut.Forexample,in2011,theGAOstatesthattherewereonly4,000concealedhandgunpermits.Thatwouldimplyanamazing725percentincreaseinpermitsbetween2011and2013.Forapermittingsystemthathadbeenaroundfordecadesandnorecentchangeintheirlaws,itwouldbesurprisingtohaveanystateseethattypeofchange.Maine’sSpecialInvestigationsUnittoldusthattherewereinfact24,000in2011.PossiblytheGAOsimplyleftoffthenumber“2”whenthenrecordedthisinformation.InConnecticut,wehadasmallernumberofpermitsin2011(115,000).

WhyistheNumberofPermitsIncreasing?

AsimpleGoogleTrendssearchshowsthatpeople’sinterestinconcealedcarryhasspikedinthewakeofrecentmasspublicshootings.Hereisthesearchactivityafterfournotableattacks.

Theseattackshavealsobeenfollowedbysharpincreasesinthenumberof

permitsbeingissued.Withabout890,000newconcealedhandgunpermitsissuedinjustthelastyear—bringingthetotalto17.25million—AmericanshaveclearlydonemorethansimplylookupinformationontheInternet.

Thesurgeinconcealedhandgunpermitscorrespondscloselywithopinionpollsonguns.TakeaseriesofpollsbythePewResearchCenter.InDecember2012,48%ofrespondentssaidthatowningagun“protectedthemfrombeingcrimevictims”asopposedto37%whoansweredthatitwouldbe“puttingpeople’ssafetyatrisk.”25ByDecember2014,people’spositiveimpressionsofgunownershiphadgrowntoamarginof57-to-38.

SimilarchangescanbeseeninpollsbyGallupandABCNews-WashingtonPost.26Theyaskedamorenarrowquestion:whetherhavingaguninthehomemakesthehomesaferormoredangerous.Thechangehasbeendramatic.In2000,Gallupfoundthatonly35percentofAmericansthoughtthatowningagunmadetheirhomesafer.By2014,thatnumberhadsoaredto63percent.

It'snotjustthatAmericansthinkthathavingagunmakesthemsaferasindividuals.Theyalsofeelbetterknowingthattheirneighborsarearmed.ARasmussenpollfromthispastJunefoundthata68-to-22percentmarginofAmericans“feelsaferinaneighborhoodwheregunsareallowed.”27

ApollbyPEWhelpstoexplainwhytherehasbeensuchalargeincreaseinconcealedhandgunpermitsamongblacksandwomen.Thepollshowsa25percentagepointincreaseintheproportionofblackswithafavorableviewofgunownership.Thisisthelargestincreaseofanygroup.Theincreaseamongallwomenwas11percentagepoints,andtheincreaseamongmenwas8percentagepoints.

25PewResearchCenter,“GrowingPublicSupportforGunRights:MoreSayGunsDoMoretoProtectThanPutPeopleatRisk,”December102014(http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/10/growing-public-support-for-gun-rights/).26JustinMcCarthy,“MoreThanSixin10AmericansSayGunsMakeHomesSafer,”Gallup,November7,2014(http://www.gallup.com/poll/179213/six-americans-say-guns-homes-safer.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication).ScottClementandPeytonCraighill,“MajorityofAmericanssaygunsmakehomessafer,”WashingtonPost,April18,2013(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/18/majority-of-americans-say-guns-make-homes-safer/).27RasmussenReports,“AmericansPreferLivinginNeighborhoodsWithGuns,”June122015(http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/gun_control/americans_prefer_living_in_neighborhoods_with_guns).

DataSourcesforNumberofConcealedHandgunPermits,feesforpermits,andthelengthoftimethatapermitisvalid.

StateDataSource

Alabama CountiesusedtoestimatethenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitinthestateareBaldwinCounty,CullmanCounty,MadisonCounty,CleburneCounty,MontgomeryCounty,JacksonCounty,JeffersonCounty,andShelbyCounty.ChadPetri,"PistolPermitPricesVaryAcrossCounties,"WKRG.COM,March192016http://wkrg.com/2016/03/19/pistol-permit-prices-vary-across-counties/

Alaska* EricGaffney,Records&LicensingSupervisor,DivisionofStatewideServices,AlaskaDepartmentofPublicSafety(907)269-5634AlaskaDepartmentofPublicSafety, Permits&Licensing-ConcealedHandgunPermitshttps://dps.alaska.gov/Statewide/R-I/PermitsLicensing/ACHP-FAQhttps://dps.alaska.gov/getmedia/0440c0e0-2f58-4406-9101-65ca34a2e2f6/ACHP-Statutes-and-Regs.pdf;.aspx

Arizona* ArizonaDepartmentofPublicSafety,ConcealedWeaponsandPermits-StatisticsandFeeshttp://www.azdps.gov/services/public/cwpArizonaAdministrativeCode,DepartmentofPublicSafety(DPS)-ConcealedWeaponsPermitsR13-9-204http://apps.azsos.gov/public_services/Title_13/13-09.pdf

Arkansas BillSadler,ArkansasStatePolice-PublicInformationOfficerArkansasStatePolice–ConcealedHandgunCarryLicensinghttps://www.ark.org/asplicense/chcl_application/chcl.aspxArkansasCode-ConcealedHandgunCarryLicensing§5-73-302

https://static.ark.org/eeuploads/asp/Arkansas_concealed_handgun_carry_license_rules_effective_1-1-2018.pdf

California KristopherHooks,"New'enhancements'tosystemwillmakegettingconcealedweaponspermitseasier,"ABC10,December202016http://www.abc10.com/news/local/new-enhancements-to-process-will-make-getting-concealed-weapons-permits-easier/375499761CaliforniaPenalCodesections26185,26190,and26220

Colorado ColoradoGeneralAssembly–StatutoryReportshttp://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/ReportsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB87256E6600773612CBIFirearmsInstaCheckUnit–FirearmStatisticshttps://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cbi/currentyearstatisticsCBIFirearmsInstaCheckUnit–ConcealedHandgunPermit(CHP)Feeshttps://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cbi/chpfeesCBIFirearmsInstaCheckUnit–ConcealedHandgunPermit(CHP)StatutesC.R.S.18-12-204http://www.lexisnexis.com/hottopics/colorado/?app=00075&view=full&interface=1&docinfo=off&searchtype=get&search=C.R.S.+18-12-204

Connecticut JanetK.Ainsworth,StaffAttorney3/EthicsLiaison,DepartmentofEmergencyServicesandPublicProtection,SpecialLicensingandFirearms-ConnecticutStatePistolPermithttp://www.ct.gov/despp/cwp/view.asp?a=4213&q=494614https://www.ct.gov/despp/lib/despp/slfu/dps-769-c_pistol_permit_instructions_to_applicants_rev_12-01-17.pdf

Delaware SusanJudge,CourtAdministrator,SuperiorCourtofDelawareDelawareCourts-ConcealedDeadlyWeaponshttp://courts.delaware.gov/superior/weapons.aspx

DistrictofColumbia

KarimahBilal,PublicAffairsSpecialist,OfficeofCommunications(PIO),MetropolitanPoliceDepartment

MetropolitanPoliceDepartment-ApplyingforaConcealedCarryPistolLicensehttps://mpdc.dc.gov/page/applying-concealed-carry-pistol-licenseCodeoftheDistrictofColumbia§7–2509.03https://beta.code.dccouncil.us/dc/council/code/titles/7/chapters/25/

Florida FloridaDepartmentofAgricultureandConsumerServices,DivisionofLicensing,ConcealedWeaponorFirearmLicenseSummaryReporthttp://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdfConcealedWeaponorFirearm:Section790.06,FloridaStatutes,FeeSchedulehttp://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7438/118429/License_Fees.pdfFloridaDepartmentofAgricultureandConsumerServices,ConcealedWeaponLicense–RenewYourLicensehttps://www.freshfromflorida.com/Consumer-Resources/Concealed-Weapon-License/Renew-Your-Concealed-Weapon-License

Georgia Georgiacarry.orgTheStateofGeorgia-ApplyingforaFirearmsLicensehttps://georgia.gov/popular-topic/applying-firearms-license

Hawaii HawaiiFirearmRegistrationsSummaryhttp://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2016-KPD-firearm-reg-rots-1.pdfhttp://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Firearm-Registrations-in-Hawaii-2015.pdfHawaiiRifleAssociation-HawaiiGunLawshttp://hawaiirifleassociation.org/hawaii-gun-laws/

Idaho LeilaMcNeill,CPM,OperationsOfficer,BureauofCriminalIdentification,IdahoStatePoliceIdahoStatutes18-3302https://legislature.idaho.gov/statutesrules/idstat/Title18/T1

8CH33/SECT18-3302/

Illinois E-mail:IllinoisStatePolice,FreedomofInformationOfficerFOIA_Officer@isp.state.il.ushttps://www.ispfsb.com/Public/AboutTheAct.aspx

Indiana IndianaStatePoliceFirearmsLicensingStatisticsbyCountyhttps://www.in.gov/isp/files/ISP_Firearms_Licensing_Statistics_2018_Issued_and_Active_2nd_Quarter.pdfIndianaStatePolice,FirearmsLicensingFeeSchedulehttp://www.in.gov/isp/3065.htm

Iowa RossLoder,BureauChief,ProgramServicesBureau,AdministrativeServicesDivision,IowaDepartmentofPublicSafetyIowaDepartmentofPublicSafety,DivisionofAdministrativeServices–WeaponPermitInformationandFormshttp://www.dps.state.ia.us/asd/weapon_permits.shtmlChapter724oftheIowaCodeandAdministrativeRules,661,Chapter91

Kansas CharlesW.Klebe,Director&AssistantAttorneyGeneral,ConcealedCarry,PrivateDetective&BailEnforcementAgentLicensingUnitsKansasApplicationforConcealedCarryHandgunLicenseandQualifyingInformation,OfficeofAttorneyGeneralDerekSchmidthttps://ag.ks.gov/docs/default-source/forms/concealed-carry-application.pdf?sfvrsn=20KansasPersonalandFamilyProtectionAct[K.S.A75-7c01et.seq]https://ag.ks.gov/docs/default-source/documents/concealed-carry-faqs.pdf?sfvrsn=6

Kentucky KentuckyStatePolicehttp://kentuckystatepolice.org/ccdw/ccdw-home/ccdw-annual-stats-reports/DanaPeacock,ProgramCoordinator,KentuckyStatePolice,

CriminalID&Records,C.C.D.W.Section

KentuckyStatePolice,ConcealedDeadlyWeapons

http://kentuckystatepolice.org/ccdw/ccdw-home/ccdw-faqs/

Louisiana LouisianaDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://www.lsp.org/handguns.htmlLouisianaConcealedHandgunPermitApplicationPackethttp://www.lsp.org/pdf/chApplication.pdf

Maine StateRepresentativeRichM.CebrawhointercededwiththeMaineStatePoliceforus.StateofMaineLawsRelatingtoPermittoCarryConcealedHandgunshttp://www.maine.gov/dps/msp/licenses/documents/Weapons/CFP%20Booklet.pdf

Maryland PatrickMccrory,LicensingDivision,MarylandStatePoliceMattLabudzki,ITLeadProgrammerAnalyst,InformationTechnologyandCommunicationsDivision,DepartmentofPublicSafetyandCorrectionalServicesMarylandStatePolice-HandgunWearandCarryPermithttp://mdsp.maryland.gov/Organization/Pages/CriminalInvestigationBureau/LicensingDivision/Firearms/WearandCarryPermit.aspx

Massachusetts MichaelaDunne,ManagerofLawEnforcement&JusticeServices,MassachusettsDepartmentofCriminalJusticeInformationServicesMassachusettsGovernment-GunOwnershipinMassachusettshttp://www.mass.gov/eea/agencies/dfg/dfw/education-events/hed/gun-licensing-requirements.html#TrainingRequirements

Michigan MichiganStatePolice-CPLApplicationsbyCountyandStatushttps://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/All_Statuses_Report_April_2_2018_619274_7.pdf

MichiganStatePolice-ConcealedPistolLicenseRenewalInformationhttp://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,4643,7-123-1878_1591_3503_4654-10955--,00.htmlhttps://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,4643,7-123-1878_1591_3503_4654-10929--,00.html

Minnesota JudithM.Strobel,JD,MBA,SeniorLegalAnalyst,MinnesotaBureauofCriminalApprehension

MinnesotaBureauofCriminalApprehension-Firearmshttps://dps.mn.gov/divisions/bca/bca-divisions/administrative/Pages/firearms.aspxMinnesotaStatutes624.714https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/624.714

Mississippi M/Sgt.OdisEasterling,Director,FirearmPermitUnitMississippiDepartmentofPublicSafety–FirearmPermitApplicationhttps://www.dps.state.ms.us/firearms/firearms-permit-unit/firearms-permits-faqs/

Missouri Email:MissouriStateHighwayPatrolmshppied@mshp.dps.mo.govCommitteeonLegislativeResearch,OversightDivision1360-04http://lawcenter.giffords.org/concealed-weapons-permitting-in-missouri/

Montana† EricSell,CommunicationsDirector,MontanaDepartmentofJusticeMontanaCode45-8-322http://leg.mt.gov/bills/mca/title_0450/chapter_0080/part_0030/section_0220/0450-0080-0030-0220.html

Nebraska Email:NebraskaStatePatrolnsp.ccw@nebraska.govNebraskaStatePatrol–ConcealCarryhttps://statepatrol.nebraska.gov/vnews/display.v/SEC/Services%7CConcealed%20Carry%20Permits%3E%3EConceal%20Carry%20FAQ

Nevada NevadaDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://rccd.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/gsdnvgov/content/Resources/Active%20CCW%20by%20SO%20(1%20MAY%2018)%20Final.pdfNevadaCode-ConcealedFirearmshttps://www.leg.state.nv.us/NRS/NRS-202.htmlhttp://www.nevadacarry.org/concealed-carry.html

NewHampshire SergeantMichael.J.McQuade,PermitsandLicensingUnitCommanderStateofNewHampshireDepartmentofSafetyhttps://www.nh.gov/safety/divisions/nhsp/ssb/permitslicensing/documents/dssp260.pdf

NewJersey StateofNewJerseyN.J.S.2C:58-3andN.J.S.2C:58-4http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2016/Bills/S3500/3124_I1.HTM

NewMexico TeashaJ.Roybal,LawEnforcementRecordsBureau,IPRACoordinator-DepartmentofPublicSafetyNewMexicoDepartmentofPublicSafety-ConcealedHandgunCarryhttps://www.dps.nm.gov/index.php/concealed-carry-faqs?highlight=WyJjb25jZWFsZWQiXQ==https://www.dps.nm.gov/templates/g5_hydrogen/custom/PDFs/Concealed%20Carry%20License/FILLABLE/NMAC%20CCW%20Booklet%20FILLABLE.pdf

NewYorkNYC

CountiesusedtoestimatethenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitinthestateareHerkimerCounty,NassauCounty,RocklandCounty,OneidaCounty,SaratogaCountyandBroomeCountyWestchesterCounty.NewYorkStatePolice–Firearmshttps://troopers.ny.gov/Firearms/PoliceDepartment,CityofNewYork,HandgunLicenseApplicationhttp://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/permits/HandGunLicenseApplicationFormsComplete.pdf

NorthCarolina BethA.Starosta-Desmond,NorthCarolinaStateBureauofInvestigation,CriminalInformationandIdentification

Section,AssistantSpecialAgentinChargeNorthCarolinaFirearmsLawshttp://www.ncdoj.gov/getdoc/32344299-a2a7-4ae5-99fd-9018262f64ac/NC-Firearms-gun-Laws.aspx

NorthDakota NorthDakotaAttorneyGeneral-ConcealedWeaponLicenseshttps://attorneygeneral.nd.gov/public-safety/concealed-weapons-licensesNorthDakotaAttorneyGeneral-OnlineApplicationProcesshttps://attorneygeneral.nd.gov/public-safety/concealed-weapons-licenses/obtaining-north-dakota-concealed-weapon-license/onlineNorthDakotaConcealedWeaponLicensehttps://attorneygeneral.nd.gov/sites/ag/files/documents/CWL-Manual.pdf

Ohio OhioAttorneyGeneralhttp://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Publications/Publications-for-Law-Enforcement/Concealed-Carry-Publications/Concealed-Carry-StatisticsOhio’sConcealedCarryLawsandLicenseApplicationhttp://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Publications-Files/Publications-for-Law-Enforcement/Concealed-Carry-Publications/Concealed-Carry-Laws-Manual-%28PDF%29

Oklahoma OklahomaStateBureauofInvestigationhttp://www.ok.gov/osbi/OklahomaStateBureauofInvestigation-HandgunLicensinghttps://www.ok.gov/osbi/Handgun_Licensing/How_to_apply_as_a_first_time_license_holder_or_expired_renewal.html

Oregon PatriciaWhitfield,Director,CJISDivision,OregonStatePolice

OregonStateLegislature166.292https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors166.html

Pennsylvania CorporalAdamReed,CommunicationsOfficeDirector,PennsylvaniaStatePolicePennsylvaniaStatutesTitle18Pa.C.S.A.CrimesandOffenses§6109.Licenseshttp://www.legis.state.pa.us/WU01/LI/LI/CT/HTM/18/00.061.009.000..HTM

RhodeIsland LisaA.Pinsonneault,SpecialAssistantAttorneyGeneral,TheStateofRhodeIsland|OfficeoftheAttorneyGeneralStateofRhodeIslandAttorneyGeneralhttp://www.riag.ri.gov/home/pistol_renewal_form.pdf

SouthCarolina SouthCarolinaLawEnforcementDivisionhttp://www.sled.sc.gov/CWPStats.aspx?MenuID=CWPSouthCarolinaConcealedWeaponPermitApplicationhttp://www.sled.sc.gov/documents/CWP/CWPApplicationForm.pdfSouthCarolinaCodeofLaws23-31http://www.scstatehouse.gov/code/t23c031.php

SouthDakota SouthDakotaSecretaryofState–ConcealedPistolPermitshttp://sdsos.gov/general-services/concealed-pistol-permits/default.aspx

Tennessee TennesseeDepartmentofSafetyandHomelandSecurityhttps://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/safety/documents/Current_HG_PermitHolders.pdfTennesseeDepartmentofSafetyandHomelandSecurity-HandgunCarryPermitshttps://www.tn.gov/safety/handgunmain.html

Texas TexasDepartmentofPublicSafety-Reports&Statisticshttp://www.dps.texas.gov/rsd/LTC/reports/demographics.htmhttp://www.dps.texas.gov/rsd/LTC/reports/ActLicAndInstr/ActiveLicandInstr2017.pdfMandyTennill,RecordsAnalyst,OperationsandSharedServices,RegulatoryServicesDivision,TexasDepartmentofPublicSafetyTexasLicensetoCarryaHandgun(LTC)FeeTablehttp://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/documents/LTCFeeSch

edule.pdfTexasDepartmentofPublicSafety,RegulatoryServicesDivision-LicensetoCarryAHandgunhttps://www.dps.texas.gov/RSD/LTC/faqs/index.htm

Utah†† UtahDepartmentofPublicSafety,FirearmStatisticalReview,SecondQuarter2018https://bci.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018/07/2018Q2.pdfUtahDepartmentofPublicSafety,ConcealedFirearmPermitshttps://bci.utah.gov/concealed-firearm/

Vermont* Nopermitsrequiredtocarry.Nopermitsofferedforthosewhocarryoutofstate.

Virginia MichaelS.Matthews,Manager,FirearmsTransactionCenter,VirginiaStatePolice

E-mail:VirginiaDepartmentofStatePolicefoia@vsp.virginia.gov

http://www.vsp.state.va.us/Firearms_ResidentConcealed.shtmhttp://www.vsp.state.va.us/Firearms_NonresidentConcealed.shtm

Washington Email:WashingtonStateDepartmentofLicensingPublicRecordshttps://wadolpublicrecords.nextrequest.com/WashingtonStateDepartmentofLicensing-Concealedpistollicensehttp://www.dol.wa.gov/business/firearms/faconcealreq.html

WestVirginia WestVirginiaCode§61-7-4http://www.legis.state.wv.us/wvcode/chapterentire.cfm?chap=61&art=7&section=4#01

Wisconsin WaltNeverman,Director–CrimeInformationBureau,WisconsinCSO/NletsRep,NCICSubcommitteeChairWisconsinDepartmentofJustice-ConcealedCarryAnnualReportshttps://www.doj.state.wi.us/dles/cib/conceal-

carry/concealed-carry-annual-reportsWisconsinDepartmentofJustice–ConcealedCarryhttps://concealedcarry.doj.wi.gov/ccwonline/steps/startApplication.html;jsessionid=686F87BE01355D5D7E378AAD060F6284.ccwonline1#!

Wyoming* HeatherCalvert,WyomingDivisionofCriminalInvestigation,CriminalJusticeRecordsAnalyst-ConcealedFirearmPermitsWyomingDivisionofCriminalInvestigation-ConcealedFirearmPermitshttp://wyomingdci.wyo.gov/dci-criminal-justice-information-systems-section/concealed-firearms-permits/cfp-faq

Appendixonratesthatpermitholdersareconvictedofviolentcrimes.

Louisiana:Herearethepercentagesofpermitholderswhowerechargedorconvictedofanytypeoffelony,whetherviolentornonviolent(aggravatedassaultisonetypeoffelony,butfeloniesalsotypicallyincludetrafficviolations).Includingchargedcasesskewsthenumbersubstantially,sincepermitholdershaveverylowconvictionratesingeneral.Afterall,permitholdersareusuallyarrestedeveniftheyusedtheirgunsinjustifiableself-defense.Policeandprosecutorscan’tjustletthemoffthehookuntiltheyaresureaboutwhathappened.Thevastmajorityofthesecasesareunlikelytoinvolvefirearms,however.(reports)

2016:16.Percentofpermitholderswhoarechargedorconvictedofafelony:0.0092%

Shareofviolentcrimes

2015:Therewere25,208violentcrimesinLouisiana,with19felonychargesorconvictionsagainstpermitholders.Assumingthatthesefelonieswereallviolentandthattheaccusedwereguiltyofthecharges,permitholderswouldaccountforjust0.08%ofthetotal.Again,thisisanoverestimateofpermitholders’shareofviolentcrimes.

2014:Therewere23,983violentcrimesinLouisiana,with15felonychargesorconvictionsagainstpermitholders.Assumingthatthesefelonieswereallviolentandthattheaccusedwereguiltyofthecharges,permitholderswouldaccountforjust0.06%ofthetotal.Again,thisisanoverestimateofpermitholders’shareofviolentcrimes.

Michigan:Belowisthepercentageofpermitholderswhowereconvictedofaggravatedassault(withandwithoutaweapon)

2015-2016:17.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanaggravatedassault:0.003%

2014-2015:11.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanaggravatedassault:0.002%

Also,thepercentageofpermitholderswhowereconvictedofanytypeofviolentcrime(Murder,manslaughter,criminalsexualconduct,armedrobbery,unarmedrobbery,aggravatedassault)

2015-2016:22.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofaviolentcrime:0.00396%

These22casescomparetoatotalof41,231violentcrimesinMichigan,thatisa0.053%share.

2014-2015:18.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofaviolentcrime:0.00352%

These18casescomparetoatotalof42,348violentcrimesinMichigan,thatisa0.044%share.

Minnesota:Permitrevocationsduetoanytypeofassault

2015:0.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanassault:0.000%

Therewere7,094aggravatedassaultsinMinnesotain2015andnoconcealedhandgunpermitholderswereconvictedofthesecrimes.

Oregon:Permitholderswhowereconvictedofanytypeoffelony,violentornonviolent.Thevastmajorityofthesecasesareunlikelytoinvolvefirearms.

2016:19.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofafelony:0.0074%

Therewere10,468violentcrimesinOklahomain2015.Eventhoughfeloniesinvolvemoreviolentcrimes,the19feloniesthatpermitholderswereconvictedofin2016equalonly0.182%ofviolentcrimes.

Oklahoma:Permitholderswhowereconvictedofanytypeoffelony.(reports)

2012:10.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofafelony:Unknowratebecausewedon'thavepermitdatafor2012.

Therewere16,506violentcrimesinOklahomain2015.Eventhoughfeloniesinvolvemoreviolentcrimes,the16feloniesthatpermitholderswereconvictedofequalonly0.097%ofviolentcrimes.

Tennessee:Revocationsduetoanytypeofassaultotherthanvehicularassault

2016:Zero.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanon-vehicularassault:0.000%

2015:Zero.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanon-vehicularassault:0.000%

Permitholderswhowereconvictedofanytypeoffelony.

Therewere40,400violentcrimesinTennesseein2015.Eventhoughfeloniesinvolvemoreviolentcrimes,the31feloniesthatpermitholderswereconvictedofequalonly0.077%ofviolentcrimes.

Texas:Convictionsforaggravatedassaultwithanytypeofweapon

2016:8.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanaggravatedassault:0.00067%

2015:10.Percentofpermitholderswhoareconvictedofanaggravatedassault:0.0011%

Therewere67,727aggravatedassaultinTexasin2015.Eventhoughfeloniesinvolvemoreviolentcrimes,the31feloniesthatpermitholderswereconvictedofequalonly0.077%ofviolentcrimes.

Appendixofsomeacademicresearchshowingthatright-to-carrylawsreduceviolentcrime

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andDavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandguns,JournalofLegalStudies,1997.

WilliamAlanBartleyandMarkACohen,TheEffectofConcealedWeaponsLaws:AnExtremeBoundAnalysis,EconomicInquiry,April1998.(Copyavailablehere)

StephenG.BronarsandJohnR.Lott,Jr.,CriminalDeterrence,GeographicSpillovers,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandguns,AmericanEconomicReview,May1998.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,“TheConcealed–HandgunDebate,”JournalofLegalStudies,January1998:221-243

DavidMustard,TheImpactofGunLawsonPoliceDeaths,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

BruceL.BensonandBrentD.Mast,PrivatelyProducedGeneralDeterrence,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

FlorenzPlassmannandT.NicolausTideman,DoestheRighttoCarryConcealedHandgunsDeterCountableCrimes?:OnlyaCountAnalysisCanSay,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

CarlisleE.Moody,TestingfortheEffectsofConcealedWeaponsLaws:SpecificationErrorsandRobustness,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

DavidE.OlsonandMichaelD.Maltz,Right-to-CarryConcealedWeaponLawsandHomicideinLargeU.S.Counties:TheEffectonWeaponTypes,VictimCharacteristics,andVictim-OffenderRelationships,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

ThomasB.Marvell,TheImpactofBanningJuvenileGunPossession,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andJohnE.Whitley,Safe-StorageGunLaws:AccidentalDeaths,Suicides,andCrime,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andJohnE.Whitley,MeasurementErrorinCounty-LevelUCR

Data,JournalofQuantitativeCriminology,June2003,Volume19,Issue2,pp185-198

FlorenzPlassmannandJohnWhitley,ConfirmingMoreGuns,LessCrime,StanfordLawReview,2003

EricHellandandAlexanderTabarrok,UsingPlaceboLawstoTest“MoreGuns,LessCrime,”AdvancesinEconomicAnalysisandPolicy,4(1):Article1,2004.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.andWilliamLandes,MultipleVictimPublicShootings,Bombings,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandgunLaws:ContrastingPrivateandPublicLawEnforcement,publishedinTheBiasAgainstGuns(2003).

FlorenzPlassmannandJohnR.Lott,Jr.,MoreReadersofGunMagazines,ButNotMoreCrimes.

JohnRLott,Jr.,“MoreGuns,LessCrime”(UniversityofChicagoPress2010,3rdedition).

CarlisleE.Moody,ThomasB.Marvell,PaulRZimmerman,andFasilAlemante,“TheDebateonShall-IssueLaws,”ReviewofEconomics&Finance2014

MarkGius,“Anexaminationoftheeffectsofconcealedweaponslawsandassaultweaponsbansonstate-levelmurderrates,”AppliedEconomicsLetters,Volume21,Issue42014

CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“TheDebateonShall-IssueLaws,”EconJournalWatch,volume5,number3,September2008Itisalsoavailablehere.

CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“TheDebateonShallIssueLaws,Continued,”EconJournalWatch,Volume6,Number2May2009

CarlisleE.Moody,ThomasB.Marvell,andJohnR.Lott,Jr.,“DidJohnLottProvideBadDatatotheNRC?ANoteonAneja,Donohue,andZhang,”EconJournalWatch,Volume10,Number1,January2013

CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“OntheChoiceofControlVariablesintheCrimeEquation”byCarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,Volume72,Issue5,pages696–715,October2010.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,MoreGuns,LessCrime:AResponsetoAyresandDonohue’s1999

bookreviewintheAmericanLawandEconomicsReview,YaleLaw&EconomicsResearchPaperNo.247,1999.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,Right-to-CarryLawsandViolentCrimeRevisited:Clustering,MeasurementError,andState-by-StateBreakdowns,AmericanEnterpriseInstituteWorkingpaper,2004.

JohnR.Lott,Jr.,Commenton'TheDeterrenceofCrimeThroughPrivateSecurityEfforts:TheoryandEvidence',CrimePreventionResearchCenter,November2014.

Academicadvisoryboard

WilliamM.LandesistheCliftonR.MusserProfessorEmeritusofLawandEconomics,andSeniorLecturerattheUniversityofChicagoLawSchool.Mr.Landeshaswrittenwidelyontheapplicationofeconomicsandquantitativemethodstolawandlegalinstitutions,includingmultiplevictimpublicshootings,hijackingofairplanes,andthebailsystem.LandeshasbeenaneditoroftheJournalofLawandEconomics(1975–1991)andtheJournalofLegalStudies(1991–2000),ispastpresidentoftheAmericanLawandEconomicsAssociation,andisamemberoftheAmericanEconomicAssociation,theMontPelerinSociety,andtheCouncilofEconomicAdvisersoftheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute.HeisalsoaFellowoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences.

J.ScottArmstrongisaprofessorattheWhartonBusinessSchooloftheUniversityofPennsylvania.Heisinternationallyknownforhispioneeringworkonforecastingmethods.Mostrecently,hisresearchactivitieshaveinvolvedforecastingforterrorismandconflicts.HeisauthorofLong-RangeForecasting,themostfrequentlycitedbookonforecastingmethods.Heisaco-founderoftheJournalofForecasting,theInternationalJournalofForecasting,theInternationalSymposiumonForecasting,andforecastingprinciples.com.Heisaco-developerofnewmethodsincludingrule-basedforecasting,causalforcesforextrapolation,simulatedinteraction,structuredanalogies,andthe“indexmethod.”Inadditiontoforecasting,ProfessorArmstronghaspublishedpapersonsurveyresearch,educationalmethods,appliedstatistics,socialresponsibility,strategicplanning,andscientificpeerreview.

ArthurZ.Berg,M.D.isaDistinguishedLifeFellowoftheAmericanPsychiatricAssociationandformermemberoftheAPAViolenceTaskForce.HewasfoundingPsychiatrist-in-ChiefatBeverlyHospital(emeritus)andformerAssociateProfessorofPsychiatryatHarvardMedicalSchool.ArecentarticlethatDr.BerghadintheWallStreetJournalonmultiplevictimpublicshootingsisavailablehere.

TimGrosecloseistheMarvinHoffenbergProfessorofAmericanPoliticsatUCLA.Heholdsappointmentsinthepoliticalscienceandeconomicsdepartmentsattheuniversity.In1987,hereceivedhisB.S.inMathematicalSciencesfromStanfordUniversity.In1992,hereceivedhisPhDfromStanford’sGraduateSchoolofBusiness.HeistheauthorofovertwodozenscholarlyarticlesaswellasthebookLeftTurn:HowLiberalMediaBiasDistortstheAmericanMind.Giventheextensivemediabiasonguns,ProfessorGroseclose’sexpertiseonidentifyingmediabiaswillbeimportant.Hecontributestotheblog,www.Ricochet.com,and

isanactivetweeterat@Tim_Groseclose(https://twitter.com/Tim_Groseclose).Youcanlearnmoreabouthimandhiswritingsatwww.timgroseclose.com.

JonathanM.KarpoffistheWashingtonMutualEndowedChairinInnovationProfessorofFinanceattheUniversityofWashingtonFosterSchoolofBusiness.Karpoffhaspublishedpathbreakingresearchonthetopicsofcorporatecrimeandpunishmentaswellascorporategovernance.HeistheassociateeditorfortheJournalofFinance,JournalofFinancialEconomics,JournalofFinancialandQuantitativeAnalysis,ManagementScience,ManagerialandDecisionSciences,andTheNorthAmericanJournalofEconomicsandFinance.Hehasreceivedalonglistofacademicawards.

JoyceLeeMalcolmisthePatrickHenryProfessorofConstitutionalLawandtheSecondAmendmentatGeorgeMasonUniversityLawSchool.ShehasaPh.D.inhistoryandisinternationallyknownforherbooksGunsandViolence:TheEnglishExperience,HarvardUniversityPress(November24,2004),andToKeepandBearArms:TheOriginsofanAnglo-AmericanRight,HarvardUniversityPress(March2,1996).GunsandViolenceprovidesacomprehensivehistoryandexaminationofchangesinmurderratesinEnglandfromthemiddleagestothecurrentday.SheisaFellowoftheRoyalHistoricalSociety,andshehasheldpositionsatPrincetonUniversity,theMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,andCambridgeUniversity.MalcolmalsoservedastheDirector,DivisionofResearchProgramsfortheNationalEndowmentfortheHumanitiesduring2005-2006.

ScottE.MastenisProfessorofBusinessEconomicsandPublicPolicyintheUniversityofMichiganStephenM.RossSchoolofBusiness,wherehehasbeenafacultymembersince1984.Aleadingscholarintheareaoftransactioncosteconomics,ProfessorMasten’sresearchfocusesonissuesattheintersectionoflaw,economics,andorganization.Inadditiontohisprimaryappointment,hehasheldappointmentsastheLouisandMyrtleMoskowitzResearchProfessorinBusinessandLawatMichigan,JohnM.OlinFacultyResearchFellowatYaleLawSchool,JohnM.OlinDistinguishedVisitingProfessorofLawattheUniversityofVirginiaLawSchool,andVisitingProfessorintheUniversityofMichiganLawSchool.HewasPresidentoftheInternationalSocietyforNewInstitutionalEconomicsin2008-09,isaco-editoroftheJournalofEconomics&ManagementStrategy,andservesontheeditorialboardsoftheJournalofLaw,Economics&OrganizationandManagerialandDecisionEconomics

CarlMoody,ProfessorofEconomics,William&Mary.ProfessorMoodyhaspublishedextensivelyontherelationshipsbetweenguns,crimeand

imprisonmentinsuchacademicjournalsasCriminology,HomicideStudies,theJournalofLawandEconomics,theJournalofLegalStudies,andtheJournalofQuantitativeCriminology.Heteachesmathematicaleconomicsandeconometrics.

PaulH.RubinistheSamuelCandlerDobbsProfessorofEconomicsatEmoryUniversity,andEditorinChiefofManagerialandDecisionEconomics.HehasbeenpresidentoftheSouthernEconomicAssociation.Hisresearchinterestshaveincludedcrime,thedeathpenalty,andguncontrol.HereceivedhisB.A.fromtheUniversityofCincinnatiin1963andhisPh.D.fromPurdueUniversityin1970.HeisaFellowofthePublicChoiceSociety,aSeniorFellowattheProgressandFreedomFoundation,anAdjunctScholarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteandtheGeorgiaPublicPolicyFoundation,andformerVicePresidentoftheSouthernEconomicsAssociation.Dr.RubinhasbeenSeniorStaffEconomistatPresidentReagan’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,ChiefEconomistattheU.S.ConsumerProductSafetyCommission,DirectorofAdvertisingEconomicsattheFederalTradeCommission,andvice-presidentofGlassman-OliverEconomicConsultants,Inc.,alitigationconsultingfirminWashington.

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