competing in a chaotic economy todd buchholz

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Competing in a Chaotic EconomyCompeting in a Chaotic EconomyTodd BuchholzTodd Buchholz

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Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?

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Hyper-CompetitionHyper-Competition

SpeedSpeed ScissorsScissors

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Age of AnxietyAge of Anxiety

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New Silk RoutesNew Silk Routes

RANK 1999RANK 1999 20052005

SinopecSinopec 50 750 7

SabicSabic 32 1032 10

Formosa PlFormosa Pl 47 11 47 11

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Middle East Chemical Plantsquadruple 1990-2005

GCC $35b trade with AsiaGCC FTA deals with China, India, NZ

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Pick Up a ClubPick Up a Club

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No “Skin in the Game”No “Skin in the Game”

““trust me” papertrust me” paper Avoid Basel – new Avoid Basel – new

paper after LTCMpaper after LTCM Avalanche of defaults, Avalanche of defaults,

downgrades, CDS, downgrades, CDS, mark-to-market, mark-to-market, pension exitspension exits

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Free Trade Backlash:Free Trade Backlash:

Colombia, Panama FTAColombia, Panama FTA Sovereign Wealth FearsSovereign Wealth Fears ““Buy America?”Buy America?” India v. Steel; Russia v. India v. Steel; Russia v.

Cars and Chickens; Cars and Chickens; Argentina v. auto parts; Argentina v. auto parts;

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Who’s This?Who’s This?

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A Miracle of the Market?

What Is Sustainable?

Are We All Greek?

Who’s Broke Now?

Who do we work for?

“For the next 30 years, we all work for the Germans”

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The High Price of a Free The High Price of a Free Lunch? Lunch?

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Taking from Peter…

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A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of FinanceFinance

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Compete on Expertise and Compete on Expertise and ServiceService

__ ____ ____ __ __ ____ ____ __ ______ ______

__ ___________ _________ __ ______ _______ ______ _____ _____ _ __________ _____ _ __________

__ _____ _____ __ _____ _____ __ _______ _____

How many live in How many live in Arizona?Arizona?

Two languagesTwo languages Non-banker hoursNon-banker hours ““women’s women’s

department” 3 of first department” 3 of first 11 loans to women11 loans to women

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No Excuses!

(c)Todd G. Buchholz 2012 20

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We Can Beat Our FOE’s

• Federal Reserve Hiked Rates Too Much

• OPEC Tightened the Noose

• Euro Fell Too Far

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Back to the ’70s?Back to the ’70s?

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Is Inflation Baked in the Cake?

Any Job Hope?

Consumers Are Tired – of Not Spending

Real Estate?

Coming June 2012…

Men and Women in Black

Overreaching?

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Does China Save Capitalism?Does China Save Capitalism?

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China Aging China Aging

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@Rushbook@Rushbook

The Race for IQ PointsThe Race for IQ Points1992-20021992-2002

StevedoresStevedores -17%-17% TimberTimber -32%-32% Farm Farm -20%-20% Sewing Sewing -50%-50% TypesettersTypesetters -62%-62%

Elect. EngineersElect. Engineers +28% +28% Med. ScientistsMed. Scientists +33% +33% ArchitectsArchitects +44% +44% Legal AssistantsLegal Assistants +66% +66% Fin. ServicesFin. Services +78% +78%

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Peak Oil or Peak People?Peak Oil or Peak People? ________ ________

___________ ________ ___________ ________ ____ _____ ____ _____

___________ ___________ __________ ________ __________ ________ ___ ___

Petroleum engineering students fall 90% since 1981

Agricultural scientists Agricultural scientists stagnant for 20 yearsstagnant for 20 years

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