cognition 7e, margaret matlinchapter 12 cognition deductive reasoning and decision making chapter 12
Post on 01-Apr-2015
240 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
CognitionCognition
Deductive Reasoning and Deductive Reasoning and Decision MakingDecision Making
Chapter 12Chapter 12
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
IntroductionIntroduction
Thinking
deductive reasoning—given some specific premises, decide whether those premises allow you to draw a particular conclusions, based on the principles of logic
decision making—assessing and choosing among several alternatives
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
conditional reasoning (propositional reasoning)—tell us about the relationship between conditions; "if . . . then . . ."; judged as valid or invalid
syllogism—two statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion; "all, none, some . . ."; judged as valid, invalid, or indeterminate
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
An Overview of Conditional ReasoningAn Overview of Conditional Reasoningthe propositional calculusantecedentconsequent
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
An Overview of Conditional ReasoningAn Overview of Conditional ReasoningFour conditional reasoning situations (Table 12.1)
1. Affirming the antecedent means that you say the “if…” part of the sentence is true. This kind of reasoning leads to a valid, or correct, conclusion.
2. The fallacy (or error) of affirming the consequent means that you say the “then…” part of the sentence is true. This kind of reasoning leads to an invalid conclusion.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
An Overview of Conditional ReasoningAn Overview of Conditional ReasoningFour conditional reasoning situations (Table 12.1)
3. The fallacy of denying the antecedent means that you say the “if…” part of the sentence is false. Denying the antecedent also leads to an invalid conclusion.
4. Denying the consequent means that you say the “then…” part of the sentence is false. This kind of reasoning leads to a correct conclusion.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Propositional The Propositional CalculusCalculus
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
An Overview of Conditional ReasoningAn Overview of Conditional ReasoningJonathan Evans's heuristic-analytic theory
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
Difficulties with Negative InformationDifficulties with Negative Information• people take longer to evaluate problems that
contain negative information• people more likely to make errors on these
problems• working memory strain
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
Difficulties with Abstract Reasoning Difficulties with Abstract Reasoning ProblemsProblems
people are more accurate when they solve reasoning problems that use concrete examples rather than abstract, theoretical examples
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
The Belief-Bias EffectThe Belief-Bias Effectrole of background knowledgebelief-bias effect—when people make judgments
based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather than on the rules of logic
people tend to make errors when the logic of a reasoning problem conflicts with their background knowledge (i.e., with what they “know” is correct)
e.g., “don’t confuse me with the facts”
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
How do we know when we are wrong?How do we know when we are wrong?
What does it feel like?What does it feel like?
• Kathryn Schulz: On being wronghttp://www.ted.com/talks/kathryn_schulz_on_being_wrong.html
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
The Confirmation BiasThe Confirmation BiasThe Standard Wason Selection Task
confirmation bias—people would rather try to confirm a hypothesis than try to disprove it
Variations on the Wason Selection Tasksubtle wording changesclear, detailed instructions in conditional
reasoning strategiesreal-world situations
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Deductive ReasoningDeductive Reasoning
Confirmation BiasConfirmation BiasVariations on the Wason Selection Task (continued)
Griggs and Cox (1982)—drinking age example
If a person drinks an alcoholic drink, then they must be over the age of 21 years old.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
no established rulesno "correct" decision
heuristicsKahneman and Tversky
• proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision making
• the same strategies that normally guide us toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Representativeness HeuristicThe Representativeness Heuristicrespresentativeness heuristic—we judge that a
sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which it was selected
we believe that random-looking outcomes are more likely than orderly outcomes
this heuristic is so persuasive that we often ignore important statistical information that we should consider
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Representativeness The Representativeness HeuristicHeuristic
Sample Size and RepresentativenessSample Size and Representativeness• a large sample is statistically more likely to reflect
the true proportions in a population than a small sample
• small-sample fallacy
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Representativeness The Representativeness HeuristicHeuristic
Base Rate and RepresentativenessBase Rate and Representativenessbase rate—how often an item occurs in the populationbase-rate fallacy—emphasize representativeness
and underemphasize important information about base rates
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Representativeness The Representativeness HeuristicHeuristic
Base Rate and RepresentativenessBase Rate and RepresentativenessKahneman and Tversky—engineers and lawyers
studyBayes' theorem—judgments should be influenced by
two factors: the base rate and the likelihood ratiolikelihood ratio—whether the description is more
likely to apply to Population A or Population B
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Representativeness The Representativeness HeuristicHeuristic
Representativeness and the Conjunction Representativeness and the Conjunction FallacyFallacy
Tversky and Kahneman—"Linda", bank teller, feminist problem
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Representativeness The Representativeness HeuristicHeuristic
Representativeness and the Conjunction Representativeness and the Conjunction FallacyFallacy
conjunction rule—the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events
conjunction fallacy—people judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of a constituent event
*** judge representativeness instead of statistical probability
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Conjunction FallacyConjunction Fallacy
Figure 12.1 The Influence of Type of Statement and Level of Statistical Sophistication on Likelihood Rankings. Low numbers on the ranking indicate that people think the event is more likely an incorrect decision.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristicavailability heuristic—estimate frequency or
probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examplestrue frequency "contaminated" by recency and
familiarity
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Availability HeuristicAvailability Heuristic
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Recency and AvailabilityRecency and Availabilityjudge recent items to be more likely than they really
are
MacLeod and Campbell (1992)• when people were encouraged to recall pleasant events
from their past, they later judge pleasant events to be more likely in their future
• when people were encouraged to recall unpleasant events, they later judged unpleasant events to be more likely
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Familiarity and AvailabilityFamiliarity and Availabilityjudge more familiar examples to be more likelydivorce ratesdiseasesmedia
violent eventspopulation estimatespoints of view
Tversky and Kahneman (1973)—famous and less famous names study
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Illusory Correlation and AvailabilityIllusory Correlation and Availabilityillusory correlation—people believe that two
variables are statistically related, even though there is no real evidence for this relationship
StereotypesExample: People on unemployment are lazy
social cognition approach—stereotypes are the result of normal cognitive processes; motivational factors are less relevant
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Illusory CorrelationIllusory Correlation
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Availability HeuristicThe Availability Heuristic
Additional examplesAdditional examples• A friend says that cigarette smoking is not unhealthy
because his grandfather smoked three packs of cigarettes a day and lived to be 100.
• Someone at a party says that drivers of red cars get more speeding tickets. The group agrees with the statement because a member of the group, "Jim," drives a red car and frequently gets speeding tickets.
• All Americans/Germans/Women/Men/Teenagers …
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicThe Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic• when making an estimate, we begin with a first
approximation (anchor) and then we make adjustments to that number on the basis of additional information
• people rely too heavily on the anchor and their adjustments are too small
Remembering Algorithms vs Remembering Algorithms vs Experts - Stereotypes and Experts - Stereotypes and
Problem-SolvingProblem-Solving
Experts use Schemas built from their experience
They evaluate about 6 pieces of information out of a much larger set of data.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 11
The process is subject to:• Confirmation Bias• Representativeness • Availability• Anchoring and Adjustment
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Anchoring and The Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicAdjustment Heuristic
Research on the Anchoring and Research on the Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicAdjustment Heuristic
Multiplication study (p. 420)• if the first number was large, the estimates were higher
than if the first number was small• single-digit numbers anchored the estimates far too low
anchor may restrict the search for relevant information in memory
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Anchoring and The Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicAdjustment Heuristic
Applications of the Anchoring and Applications of the Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicAdjustment Heuristic
making judgments about other peoplestereotypes and judging individualscourtroom sentences
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Anchoring and The Anchoring and Adjustment HeuristicAdjustment Heuristic
Estimating Confidence IntervalsEstimating Confidence Intervalsconfidence interval—range within which we expect a
number to fall a certain percentage of the time• estimated confidence intervals tend to be too
narrow• anchor may be erroneous and adjustments too
small• people don't really understand confidence intervals• confidence intervals vs. estimated certainty
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Framing EffectThe Framing Effectframing effect—the outcome of a decision
can be influenced by: (1) the background context of the choice and (2) the way in which a question is worded
Huber and colleagues (1987)—"Is the pitcher half empty, or is the pitcher half full?”
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Framing EffectThe Framing Effect
Background Information and the Framing Background Information and the Framing EffectEffect
Kahneman and Tversky (1984)—lost ticket/lost $20 study
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Framing EffectThe Framing Effect
Question Wording and the Framing EffectQuestion Wording and the Framing Effectpeople distracted by surface structure of the
questionsTversky and Kahneman (1981)—"lives saved"/"lives
lost" study"lives saved" question led to more "risk averse" choices"lives lost" question led to more "risk taking" choices
prospect theory1. When dealing with possible gains (for example,
lives saved), people tend to avoid risks.2. When dealing with possible losses (for
example, lives lost), people tend to seek risks.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Framing EffectThe Framing Effect
Consumer behaviorConsumer behavior Would this sign affect your decision to purchase a sweet soda?
“Contains 250 Calories”
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
The Framing EffectThe Framing Effect
Consumer behaviorConsumer behavior How about this sign?
“Will take 60 minutes of rigorous exercise to
burn off.”
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in Decisionsoverconfidence—confidence judgments are higher
than they should be, based on actual performance
illusory correlationanchoring and adjustment
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsGeneral Studies on Overconfidence
occurs in a variety of situationsown decisions vs. statistically observable
measurementsfuture performancevariety of personal skills
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsOverconfidence in Political Decision Making
war decisionsfailure to think systematically about the risks involvedeach side tends to overestimate its own chances of
successpoliticians overconfident that their data are accurateTactical Decision Making Under Stresscrystal-ball technique
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsStudents' Overconfidence About Completing Projects on Time
planning fallacy—underestimate amount of time (or money) required to complete a project; also estimate the task will be relatively easy to complete
Shelley Taylor and colleagues (1998)student project studyprocess simulation vs. control
optimistic scenarioanchoring and adjustment
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsReasons for Overconfidence
1. People are often unaware that their knowledge is based on very tenuous and uncertain assumptions and on information from unreliable or inappropriate sources.
2. Examples confirming our hypotheses are readily available, whereas we resist searching for counterexamples
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsReasons for Overconfidence
3. People have difficulty recalling the other possible hypotheses, and decision making depends on memory. If you cannot recall the competing hypotheses, you will be overly confident about the hypothesis you have endorsed.
4. Even if people manage to recall the other possible hypotheses, they do not treat them seriously.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsReasons for Overconfidence
5. When people make decisions as a group, they sometimes engage in groupthink. Groupthink can occur when a cohesive group is so concerned about reaching a unanimous decision that they ignore potential problems, and they are overconfident that their decision will have a favorable outcome.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
In Depth: Overconfidence in DecisionsIn Depth: Overconfidence in Decisionsmy-side bias—overconfidence that one's own view is correct in a confrontational situation; often results in conflict
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Hindsight BiasThe Hindsight Biashindsight—judgments about events that
already happened in the past
hindsight bias—judging an event as inevitable, after the event has already happened; overconfidence that we could have predicted the outcome in advance
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Hindsight BiasThe Hindsight BiasResearch About the Hindsight Bias
Carli (1999)—judgments about people; Barbara/Jack study
• happy vs. tragic ending• both groups confident that they could have predicted
ending• memory errors consistent with outcome
• "blame the victim”
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
The Hindsight BiasThe Hindsight BiasExplanations for the Hindsight Bias
anchoring and adjustmentmisremembering past events
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
Individual Differences: Decision-Making Individual Differences: Decision-Making Style and Psychological Well-BeingStyle and Psychological Well-Being
Maximizers—tend to examine as many options as possible (maximizing decision-making style)
Satisficers—tend to settle for something that is satisfactory (satisficing decision-making style)
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
Individual Differences: Decision-Making Individual Differences: Decision-Making Style and Psychological Well-BeingStyle and Psychological Well-Being
Schwartz and coauthors (2002)maximizer/satisficer scale and several other measuresmaximizers tended to experience more regret
following a choicemaximizers tended to experience more depressive
symptomsmore choices don't necessarily make a person
happier
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
Current Perspectives on Decision MakingCurrent Perspectives on Decision MakingGirgerenzer and colleagues
people are not perfectly rational decision makers, but people can do relatively well when they are given a fair chance
default heuristic—if there is a default option, people will choose ite.g., organ donor
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
Current Perspectives on Decision MakingCurrent Perspectives on Decision MakingKahneman and colleagues
attribute substitution—when asked to make a judgment, but you don't know the answer, substitute an answer to a similar but easier questione.g., relationship breakup during deployment
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
Current Perspectives on Decision MakingCurrent Perspectives on Decision MakingBoth approaches suggest that decision-making heuristics generally serve us well in the real world.We can become more effective decision makers by realizing the limitations of these important strategies.
Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12
Decision MakingDecision Making
Living with DecisionsLiving with Decisions• Kathryn Schulz: Don't regret regret
http://www.ted.com/talks/kathryn_schulz_don_t_regret_regret.html
• Sheena Iyengar: The art of choosinghttp://www.ted.com/talks/
sheena_iyengar_on_the_art_of_choosing.html
top related