climate recap and outlook philip mote, phd university of washington center for science in the earth...
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Climate recap and outlookClimate recap and outlook
Philip Mote, PhDUniversity of Washington
Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group
Boise, ID October 17, 2006
Philip Mote, PhDUniversity of Washington
Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group
Boise, ID October 17, 2006
The CSES - Climate Impacts GroupThe CSES - Climate Impacts Group
•Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change
• Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program
•Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change
• Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year
Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/
northwest_1yrprec.shtml
2006 snow pack2006 snow pack
• Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack
• Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack
Our hot-dry summerOur hot-dry summer
• For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895)
• June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record
• For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895)
• June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record
Oct 9 estimated soil moisture percentilesOct 9 estimated soil moisture percentiles
• Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/
monitor
• Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/
monitor
Last year’s outlookLast year’s outlook
• The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”)
• PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring
• The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”)
• PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring
IRI ENSO Forecast SummaryIRI ENSO Forecast Summary
• Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2
• Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/
SST_table.html#figure
Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecastsOct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html
Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific
Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific
Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005
The tropical ocean is warmThe tropical ocean is warm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l
El Niño is simmeringEl Niño is simmering
• Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold
• Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold
The latest ENSO forecastsThe latest ENSO forecasts
See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSOSee http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
European Center
NOAA NCEP
Forecast summaries
Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003
• Dry for most of Idaho
From http://www.cses.washin
gton.edu/cig/maps
• Dry for most of Idaho
From http://www.cses.washin
gton.edu/cig/maps
Pacific Ocean Outlook SummaryPacific Ocean Outlook Summary• Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El
Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07• PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on
“PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see
Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate)• Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7• PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5
• A Note on Last year…
• Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07
• PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see
Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate)• Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7• PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5
• A Note on Last year…
(July-June averages)
Forecast Observed
Nino3.4 index -0.2 to +0.6 -0.14PDO index +0.2 to +.6 +0.12
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006
OND precip JFM precip
http://cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
http://cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006
OND temperature JFM temperature
Another factor in seasonal forecastsAnother factor in seasonal forecasts
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Idaho December-January-February temperatures
The Bottom lineThe Bottom line
• a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons•because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely• El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack
• a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons•because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely• El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack
See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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