climate, fire and air quality climate impacts group june 1, 2006

Climate, Fire andAir Quality

Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group

June 1, 2006June 1, 2006

Research Team

USDA Forest ServiceUSDA Forest Service Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim LarkinDon McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin

WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric ResearchWSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe VaughanJack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan

University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert

NorheimNorheim

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research Alex Guenther, Christine WiedinmyerAlex Guenther, Christine Wiedinmyer

Goals and Funding Support

USDA Forest Service HAZE ProjectUSDA Forest Service HAZE ProjectAnalyze impacts of Fire Emissions on Analyze impacts of Fire Emissions on

Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in terms of a Changing Climate.terms of a Changing Climate.

EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Project (Grant # RD83096201)Project (Grant # RD83096201) Impact of Global Change on US and Impact of Global Change on US and

Northwest Air Quality, with particular Northwest Air Quality, with particular emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emissions, and Asian emissions. emissions, and Asian emissions.

Class I Wilderness Areas

Visibility Degradation

Fort Collins, Fort Collins, COCO

Bext = Bext = 70/Mm70/Mm

Occurred Occurred twice since twice since 20002000

WinHaze WinHaze v2.9.6v2.9.6

Modeling Domains

Right: CMAQ domains at 36 and nested 12 km resolutions with 17 layers

Left: PCM and MOZART2 global model domain at 2.8o by 2.8o resolution with 18 layers.

Modeling Approach

Climate/Meteorology Emissions

Air Quality Model

• Visibility

• Particulate Matter

• Ozone Formation

• Wet & Dry Deposition

Modeling Approach

PCM

MM5

MCIP CMAQ SMOKE

MOZART2

FSB (Fire)MEGAN (Biogenics)NEI/EDGAR(Anthropogenic)

Global(IPCC A2)

Regional

Preprocessfor IC/BC

Climate/Meteorology Emissions

Air Quality

Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale

Parallel Climate Model (PCM)Parallel Climate Model (PCM)Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and

Global Dynamics DivisionGlobal Dynamics DivisionModel of Ozone and Related Chemical Model of Ozone and Related Chemical

Tracers (MOZART) v2 with AerosolsTracers (MOZART) v2 with AerosolsSimulations provided by Jean-Francois Simulations provided by Jean-Francois

Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Division)Division)

Provide IC/BCProvide IC/BCAsian transport impactsAsian transport impacts

Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale

IPCC SRES A2 IPCC SRES A2 Scenario – Scenario – Business as Business as UsualUsual worst projected worst projected

emissionsemissions heterogeneous heterogeneous

worldworld regional self-regional self-

reliancereliance large global large global

populationpopulation

Modeling Approach

PCM

MM5

MCIP CMAQ SMOKE

MOZART2

FSB (Fire)MEGAN (Biogenics)NEI/EDGAR(Anthropogenic)

Global(IPCC A2)

Regional

Preprocessfor IC/BC

Climate/Meteorology Emissions

Air Quality

Modeling ApproachRegional Scale

Meteorology – MM5Meteorology – MM5 EmissionsEmissions

Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and 1999 NEI (current)1999 NEI (current)

Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Builder (FSB).Builder (FSB).

Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN)Nature (MEGAN)

Biogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scaleBiogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scale Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level)Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level) Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature, Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature,

RH, wind speed, soil moisture.RH, wind speed, soil moisture.

Fire Emissions Modeling

Use heat released from Use heat released from the fire to calculate the fire to calculate plume rise to allocate plume rise to allocate emissions vertically in emissions vertically in the atmosphere.the atmosphere.

A portion of the fire A portion of the fire emissions are treated as emissions are treated as smoldering emissions smoldering emissions and allocated to the and allocated to the lowest model layer.lowest model layer.

MM5

Fire Scenario Builder

BlueSky-EM• FCCS• EPM

SMOKE

CAPENFDRS • Fuel Moistures

FCCS 1-km GIS layer

PM2.5 Emissions from Fire

2045 - 2055 1990 - 1999

MEGAN: Biogenic EmissionsTerpenes – Terpenes –

Particulate Matter Particulate Matter FormationFormation

Isoprene – Ozone Isoprene – Ozone ChemistryChemistry

Modeling ApproachRegional Scale

MCIPMCIP SMOKESMOKE Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ)

modeling systemmodeling system OzoneOzone Primary emission and secondary formation of Primary emission and secondary formation of

AerosolsAerosols VisibilityVisibility Gridded eulerian modelGridded eulerian model Wet and Dry DepositionWet and Dry Deposition

Project Status & Details SimulationsSimulations

Current Climate 1990 – 1999Current Climate 1990 – 1999 Future Climate 2045 – 2054Future Climate 2045 – 2054

Computing RequirementsComputing Requirements Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS)Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS) MM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domainMM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domain CMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domainCMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domain

StatusStatus 36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ)36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ) 36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future

climate case.climate case. Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and

future)future)

MM5 2m TemperatureCurrent and Future Decades

Boundary Condition Analysis

Current Decade EvaluationSurface Ozone Concentrations

Current Decade EvaluationSurface Ozone Concentrations

Preliminary Results:Surface Level Ozone

8-hr Average of 10 July Months8-hr Average of 10 July Months

Current ClimateCurrent Climate Future ClimateFuture Climate

Preliminary ResultsHours/Month 8-hr O3 > 60 ppb

Thank you!

-> Don

Susan O’NeillSusan O’Neill

susan.oneill@por.usda.govsusan.oneill@por.usda.gov

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Observed MM5 Current Case MM5 Future Case

Daily Summer (J-J-A) Max. Temperature Range for Sites in PNW for 10-Yr Period(Box and Wiskers Plot representing: 10, 25, 50, 75, 90 Percentiles)