climate change and conservation planning … change and conservation planning ... main trends of the...

Climate Change and

Conservation Planning

Elsewhere in the West:

Starting Points

and Pretty Pictures

Steve Zack

Plunging in: confronting climate change

Identify a Goal

Develop a simple Conceptual Model

Beaver Groundwater

Add Climate Change (Assess key projection and its effect)

Prevalence

of Drought

Conceptual

Model

Identify Management Actions

“Tools in the Toolbox”

Evaluate Actions relative to Goal

From Cross et al., in Review

Wildlife as

“Indicators”

Wildlife as

“Drivers”

Changing Arctic Climate . . .

The political landscape

The physical landscape

. . . from every continent, from every ocean

Spectacled Eider (Bering Sea)

Bar-tailed Godwit (New Zealand)

Parasitic Jaeger (Tropical Oceans)Yellow-billed Loon

(Korea East Sea)

Yellow Wagtail

(East Africa)Red Phalarope

(Upwellings in Oceans)

Arctic Tern

(Antarctica)

Pectoral Sandpiper

(Southern South America)Semipalmated Sandpiper

(Northern South America)Tundra Swan

(Oregon)

White-fronted Goose

(California)

Hoary Redpoll

(Boreal Alaska)

Photo: Mark Maftei, WCS

Shoreline Erosion, Salt water inundation

Boreal animal invasion

Risk of drying in the Arctic wetlands . . .

. . . with drying and shrub encroachment . . .

+ -

Conservation of Wildlife in the Changing Arctic:

“Tools in the Toolbox”?

Birds as “Indicators” of the

Ecological Recovery of Bison

The changing

Great Plains:

Hotter everywhere,

Wetter North,

Drier South

(likely evap > precip)

Grazing and Grassland Bird Habitats

Work with interested stakeholders . . .

. . . To help recover declining wildlife species

Main Trends of the Changing Climate and its Effects in Oregon:

Precipitation variable in West; less falls as snow

(winter flooding; less spring runoff; less summer flow)

“Tools already in the Toolbox” for managing

with the changing climate . . .

Manage watersheds as water cachements . . .

Main Trends of the Changing Climate and its Effects in Oregon:

Hotter, drier Interior

“Tools already in the Toolbox” for managing

with the changing climate . . .

Managing with fire and wildlife for forests . . .

Main Trends of the Changing Climate and its Effects in Oregon:

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion

Bigger Waves . . .

. . . the fallacy of “Riprap”

“Tools already in the Toolbox” for managing

with the changing climate . . .

Sea Level Rise: Purchase/Protection for Estuary Growth

Many eyes are on you:

•Clarity of Goal,

Clarity of “Indicators”

•Always need more

information

•Avoid paralysis by

analysis

•Weigh “do nothing”

vs.

learn by doing