clean renewable energy technologies tom key epri technical lead renewable and distributed resources...

Clean Renewable Clean Renewable Energy TechnologiesEnergy Technologies

Tom KeyEPRI Technical Lead Renewable and

Distributed Resourcestkey@epri.com865-218-8082

Prepared for:Prepared for:

APPA WorkshopAPPA Workshop on CREBs and REPI on CREBs and REPI

February 9, 2006February 9, 2006

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• Increasing oil, gas, and coal prices.• Extreme weather has increases debate

about link between buildup of greenhouse gases and storms.

• Energy Policy Act extends tax credits (PTCs) for clean energy, provides 30% Investment credit for Solar thru 2007.

• RPS’s in 22 States plus Washington DC, more on the way…some standards also address CHP, energy efficiency, and waste fuels.

• Potential for future carbon caps and and/or taxes.Increasing need to develop balanced and sustainable generation portfolio

Recent Push toward Renewable Energy

Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina

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Summary

• What is “Clean Renewable”

• Technical Criterion

• Political Criterion

• Federal Policy Treatment

• States RPS Treatment

• Where do we expect to go with Clean and Renewable Technologies

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Fuels use for US Electric Energy Generated(from EIA-2003)

Capacity Pie Shows our Preference to

Build but not to Operate

Energy MWHEnergy MWH

Capacity MWCapacity MW

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Technically speaking, exactly what energy resources are renewable?

1. Used for many years, by all of us, "renewable" is not a clearly defined term and it can be somewhat misleading, when applied to energy.

2. Given that energy is always conserved according to the first law.... Energy is not renewable in any literal terms. 

3. Never-the-less it is true that day to day sunlight, geo-thermal, and tides are expected to just keep on coming. • this is because they are based on very large energy

resources rather than a renewable one.

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Some Technical Criterion for what we want

1. limited to the forms of energy that are so large we can't imagine or calculate when they might be depleted…..including fundamental energy sources of solar, earth geothermal and tides (driven by gravitation forces).  

– Note that derivatives of solar..... hydro, run of river, biomass, wind, wave, and ocean thermal.... also qualify for this criterion.   

– And, recognize that these resources are limited by the need to find suitable locations to harvest the energy....which can be a significant issue, as in the case of conventional hydro-electric.  

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More Technical Criterion for what we want

2. Energy resources with low emissions, including CO2 and other Green House Gasses, and over the life cycle

3. Sustainability  and a small contribution to climate change are also criteria

– Sustainable is more or less analogous with a large and clean energy resource.  

– Resources such as municipal solid waste, waste-to-energy, landfill gas, wood, and farm wastes....all are derived from biomass/solar and fit on the fringe of our renewable definition, especially when we include significant recycling with MSW, which supports concerns for climate change.  

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An Energy Budget Model for the Globefrom Prof. Dean Patterson, Univ of NE

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The Second Law

"The total entropy of a closed system increases over time." 

Examples:– We burn coal, stored energy is turned into heat and

dissipated– We operate a hydro-electric facility, water at higher

level drops to lower level.– We generate electricity in a nuclear facility and the

reaction uses up nuclear fuel and results in creating heat….and so on.

……You can’t win, you can’t break even and you can’t get out of the game…..

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Electric Energy from Renewable Resources2003 total was ~ 360B kW-Hs

Sector/Source 2003 Percent of Total

Total 359,181,305 100%Biomass 59,761,936 17%

Wood/Wood Waste 36,951,201 10%

MSW/Landfill Gas 19,680,263 5%Other Biomass 3,130,472 1%Geothermal 13,149,041 4%Conventional Hydroelectric 275,006,940

77%

Solar 534,781 0.15%Wind 10,728,607 3%

BiomassBreakdown

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Political Criterion

• Depends on Region

• Demographics

• Availability of Renewable Resources

• Public Opinion

• Political Objectives

• Other Political Forces

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Eight Task Forces Reports:

• Advanced Coal

• Biomass

• Energy Efficiency

• Geothermal

• Solar

• Transmission

• Wind

• Quantitative

http://www.westgov.org/wga/http://www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/cdeac/index.htminitiatives/cdeac/index.htm

Two White Papers:• Combined Heat and Power • Hydropower and Ocean Energy

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Energy Tax Incentives Act of July 2005 and Treasury Department Notice 2005-98, Dec 2005*

Qualifying Facilities1. Wind Facilities2. Geothermal or Solar Energy Facilities3. Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Biomass Facilities4. Landfill Gas Facilities5. Small Irrigation Power Facilities6. Refined Coal Production Facilities7. Trash Combustion Facilities8. Qualified Hydropower Facilities

* Form Orrick Memo to APPA, 12/15/2005

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Technologies in State RPS(23 states, ~1-20% by 2020)

Solar PV 22 Hydro conventional 12

Wind 22 Ocean 10

Biomass 21 Digester Gas 10

Land Fill Gas 17 Tidal 9

Solar Thermal 16 Wave 9

Misc…. H2, CHP, CoGen, Solar hot water, Co firing, etc.

16 MSW 7

Geothermal 15 Hydro small 4

Fuel Cells (Renewable fuels) 13 Fuel Cell (any fuel) 4

From http://www.dsireusa.org/From http://www.dsireusa.org/

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Renewable Energy Technologies

Wind BiomassOcean Energy

Solar Thermal Green BuildingsSolar Photovoltaic

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EIA Fuels for Electricity - History and Forecast (1999…something wrong with this forecast?)

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Most Important & Uncertain Drivers

Evolution of Primary Fuel Markets

Changes in Societal Values Regarding Global Climate Changes

High Gas PricesLow Gas Prices

Low Prices for CO2

(Public Perception that global climate change is a low priority)

High Prices for CO2

(Public Perception that global climate change is a high priority)

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Uranium Prices T&D Infrastructure

Coal Supply EnvironmentalRegulation

Abundant ContinuedTightening

IncreasingSlightly

Aging andStressed

Current Situation

Domestic Gas Supply RenewablePortfolio Standards

China & India Local Distribution

Impact onCommodities

ContinuedMonopolies

ProliferatingDeclining

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Scenario will determine our Energy Future

Digging in Our HeelsSupply to the Rescue

Double WhammyBiting the Bullet

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New Generation based on recent events and best estimate on levelized energy cost

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The Promise of Renewable Energy

NREL

An Important Option considering Customer Customer preference, public policy, preference, public policy, environmental concerns, and environmental concerns, and technological progress are technological progress are converging to make renewables converging to make renewables an essential energy resource.an essential energy resource.

EPRI carries the responsibility to EPRI carries the responsibility to look for technological solutions that look for technological solutions that can meet future energy needs while can meet future energy needs while protecting the environment, even if protecting the environment, even if they are still beyond today’s they are still beyond today’s economic horizon. economic horizon.