civil beat oct. 23 poll - governor and u.s. senate
Post on 12-May-2015
310 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1
DEMOGRAPHIC & ISSUES TOPLINES Margin of Error for 1,181 = +/- 2.9%
Likelihood of Voting
Frequency Percent
Already voted 400 33.9
Definitely vote 761 64.4
Probably vote 20 1.7
Valid
Total 1181 100.0
2
Gender
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Female 595 50.4 58.2
Male 427 36.2 41.8
Total 1022 86.5 100.0
Not Recorded 159 13.5
Total 1181 100.0
3
Race
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Asian 374 31.7 37.0
White 430 36.4 42.6
Pacific Islander 78 6.6 7.7
African American 12 1.0 1.2
Hispanic 18 1.5 1.8
Two or more 98 8.3 9.7
Total 1010 85.5 100.0
Not Recorded 171 14.5
Total 1181 100.0
4
Asian
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Chinese 69 5.8 18.7
Japanese 213 18.0 57.7
Filipino 39 3.3 10.6
Korean 10 .8 2.7
Other 10 .8 2.7
Mixed 27 2.3 7.3
Not sure 1 .1 .3
Total 369 31.2 100.0
Not Asian 636 53.9
Not Recorded 176 14.9
Total 812 68.8
Total 1181 100.0
5
Religion
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Catholic 195 16.5 19.6
Mormon 33 2.8 3.3
Evangelical 147 12.4 14.8
Other Christian 252 21.3 25.4
Jewish 25 2.1 2.5
Buddhist 99 8.4 10.0
Other 75 6.4 7.5
None 168 14.2 16.9
Total 994 84.2 100.0
Not Recorded 187 15.8
Total 1181 100.0
6
Political Party
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Democrat 428 36.2 43.2
Republican 219 18.5 22.1
Independent 271 22.9 27.4
Unsure 72 6.1 7.3
Total 990 83.8 100.0
Not Recorded 191 16.2
Total 1181 100.0
7
Tea Party
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Yes 145 12.3 14.8
No 750 63.5 76.5
Unsure 85 7.2 8.7
Total 980 83.0 100.0
Not Recorded 201 17.0
Total 1181 100.0
8
Political Orientation
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Liberal 247 20.9 25.7
Moderate 303 25.7 31.5
Conservative 302 25.6 31.4
Unsure 110 9.3 11.4
Total 962 81.5 100.0
Not Recorded 219 18.5
Total 1181 100.0
9
Education Frequency Percent Valid Percent
High School or less 126 10.7 13.4
Some College 216 18.3 22.9
College Graduate 275 23.3 29.2
Graduate Plus 118 10.0 12.5
Post Grad Degree 207 17.5 22.0
Total 942 79.8 100.0
Not Recorded 239 20.2
Total 1181 100.0
10
Country Direction Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Very positive 262 22.2 22.4
Somewhat positive 408 34.5 34.9
Somewhat negative 177 15.0 15.2
Very negative 266 22.5 22.8
Not sure 55 4.7 4.7
Total 1168 98.9 100.0
Not Recorded 13 1.1
Total 1181 100.0 Country Direction Truncated
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Positive 670 56.7 57.4
Negative 443 37.5 37.9
Not sure 55 4.7 4.7
Total 1168 98.9 100.0
Not Recorded 13 1.1
Total 1181 100.0
11
State Direction Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Very positive 149 12.6 12.9
Somewhat positive 483 40.9 41.7
Somewhat negative 340 28.8 29.3
Very negative 125 10.6 10.8
Not sure 62 5.2 5.3
Total 1159 98.1 100.0
Not Recorded 22 1.9
Total 1181 100.0 State Direction Truncated
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Positive 632 53.5 54.5
Negative 465 39.4 40.1
Not sure 62 5.2 5.3
Total 1159 98.1 100.0
Not Recorded 22 1.9
Total 1181 100.0
12
Obama Approval Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Approve strongly 525 44.5 44.5
Approve somewhat 209 17.7 17.7
Disapprove somewhat 116 9.8 9.8
Disapprove strongly 283 24.0 24.0
Unsure 48 4.1 4.1
Total 1181 100.0 100.0
Obama Approval Truncated
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Approve 734 62.2 62.2
Disapprove 399 33.8 33.8
Unsure 48 4.1 4.1
Total 1181 100.0 100.0
13
GOVERNOR’S RACE
Governor Support
Frequency Percent
Abercrombie 585 49.5
Aiona 526 44.5
Undecided 61 5.2
Not voting/Other 9 .8
Total 1181 100.0
Democratic Primary
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Hannemann 331 28.0 31.6
Abercrombie 465 39.4 44.4
Didn't vote/Other 220 18.6 21.0
Don't remember 31 2.6 3.0
Total 1047 88.7 100.0
Not Recorded 134 11.3
Total 1181 100.0
14
Governor * CD Crosstabulation
% within CD
CD 1 2 Total
Abercrombie 50.6% 48.3% 49.5%
Aiona 43.4% 45.8% 44.5%
Undecided 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
Governor
Not voting/Other .8% .7% .8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
15
““EXIT POLL”: Results of those respondents who say they have already voted are embargoed until 6:00 p.m. on Election Day.
Governor * Voting Crosstabulation
% within Voting
Voting Already voted Definitely vote Probably vote Total
Abercrombie 52.5% 48.2% 40.0% 49.5%
Aiona 43.8% 44.9% 45.0% 44.5%
Undecided 3.0% 6.0% 15.0% 5.2%
Governor
Not voting/Other .8% .8% .8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.
16
Governor * Obama Crosstabulation
% within Obama
Obama Approve Disapprove Unsure Total
Abercrombie 72.9% 8.0% 37.5% 49.5%
Aiona 21.7% 89.0% 25.0% 44.5%
Undecided 5.0% 2.0% 33.3% 5.2%
Governor
Not voting/Other .4% 1.0% 4.2% .8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Obama * Governor Crosstabulation
% within Governor
Governor Abercrombie Aiona Undecided Not voting/Other Total
Approve 91.5% 30.2% 60.7% 33.3% 62.2%
Disapprove 5.5% 67.5% 13.1% 44.4% 33.8%
Obama
Unsure 3.1% 2.3% 26.2% 22.2% 4.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
17
Governor * CountryDirection Crosstabulation
% within CountryDirection
CountryDirection Positive Negative Not sure Total
Abercrombie 75.2% 12.2% 38.2% 49.6%
Aiona 20.1% 83.7% 29.1% 44.7%
Undecided 4.3% 2.7% 30.9% 5.0%
Governor
Not voting/Other .3% 1.4% 1.8% .8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
CountryDirection * Governor Crosstabulation
% within Governor
Governor Abercrombie Aiona Undecided Not voting/Other Total
Positive 87.0% 25.9% 50.0% 22.2% 57.4%
Negative 9.3% 71.1% 20.7% 66.7% 37.9%
CountryDirection
Not sure 3.6% 3.1% 29.3% 11.1% 4.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18
Governor * StateDirection Crosstabulation
% within StateDirection
StateDirection Positive Negative Not sure Total
Abercrombie 52.8% 46.2% 45.2% 49.8%
Aiona 42.9% 49.0% 27.4% 44.5%
Undecided 3.8% 3.7% 25.8% 4.9%
Governor
Not voting/Other .5% 1.1% 1.6% .8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
StateDirection * Governor Crosstabulation
% within Governor
Governor Abercrombie Aiona Undecided Not voting/Other Total
Positive 57.9% 52.5% 42.1% 33.3% 54.5%
Negative 37.3% 44.2% 29.8% 55.6% 40.1%
StateDirection
Not sure 4.9% 3.3% 28.1% 11.1% 5.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
19
Governor * PrimaryVote Crosstabulation
% within PrimaryVote
PrimaryVote
Hannemann Abercrombie
Didn’t
vote/Other Don’t remember Total
Abercrombie 35.0% 81.5% 7.3% 35.5% 49.9%
Aiona 61.3% 15.9% 83.6% 35.5% 45.1%
Undecided 3.0% 2.4% 7.3% 22.6% 4.2%
Governor
Not voting/Other .6% .2% 1.8% 6.5% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
20
Governor * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender Female Male Total
Abercrombie 51.4% 47.8% 49.9%
Aiona 43.9% 46.8% 45.1%
Undecided 4.2% 4.0% 4.1%
Governor
Not voting/Other .5% 1.4% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
21
Governor * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race
Asian White Pacific Islander
African
American Hispanic Two or more Total
Abercrombie 55.1% 47.0% 55.1% 50.0% 55.6% 39.8% 50.1%
Aiona 38.2% 50.9% 42.3% 25.0% 44.4% 49.0% 45.0%
Undecided 5.6% 1.6% 2.6% 16.7% 9.2% 4.1%
Governor
Not voting/Other 1.1% .5% 8.3% 2.0% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
22
Governor * Asian Crosstabulation
% within Asian
Asian Chinese Japanese Filipino Korean Other Mixed Not sure Total
Abercrombie 42.0% 63.8% 43.6% 40.0% 50.0% 40.7% 100.0% 55.0%
Aiona 52.2% 31.9% 43.6% 60.0% 30.0% 40.7% 38.2%
Undecided 5.8% 2.8% 12.8% 20.0% 14.8% 5.7%
Governor
Not voting/Other 1.4% 3.7% 1.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
23
Governor * Religion Crosstabulation
% within Religion
Religion Catholic Mormon Evangelical Other Christian Jewish Buddhist Other None Total
Abercrombie 46.7% 36.4% 24.5% 49.2% 64.0% 69.7% 50.7% 65.5% 49.9%
Aiona 46.2% 60.6% 72.1% 48.4% 36.0% 25.3% 42.7% 26.2% 45.1%
Undecided 6.7% 3.0% 3.4% 1.2% 4.0% 4.0% 7.1% 4.1%
Governor
Not voting/Other .5% 1.2% 1.0% 2.7% 1.2% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
24
Governor * Party Crosstabulation
% within Party
Party Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Total
Abercrombie 79.7% 8.2% 39.9% 40.3% 50.1%
Aiona 16.4% 90.4% 52.4% 47.2% 44.8%
Undecided 3.0% 1.4% 6.3% 11.1% 4.1%
Governor
Not voting/Other .9% 1.5% 1.4% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
25
Governor * TeaParty Crosstabulation
% within TeaParty
TeaParty Yes No Unsure Total
Abercrombie 11.0% 60.4% 25.9% 50.1%
Aiona 84.1% 35.9% 57.6% 44.9%
Undecided 2.8% 3.2% 14.1% 4.1%
Governor
Not voting/Other 2.1% .5% 2.4% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
26
Governor * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Total
Abercrombie 84.6% 59.4% 14.6% 45.5% 50.2%
Aiona 12.1% 36.6% 81.5% 40.0% 44.8%
Undecided 2.4% 3.3% 3.0% 12.7% 4.1%
Governor
Not voting/Other .8% .7% 1.0% 1.8% .9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Governor * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High School or
less Some College
College
Graduate Graduate Plus
Post Grad
Degree Total
Abercrombie 51.6% 44.4% 45.5% 50.8% 63.8% 50.7%
Aiona 41.3% 50.5% 49.5% 44.9% 32.9% 44.4%
Undecided 4.8% 5.1% 4.0% 4.2% 1.9% 3.9%
Governor
Not voting/Other 2.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
27
SENATE RACE
Senate
Frequency Percent
Inouye 741 62.7
Cavasso 361 30.6
Undecided 60 5.1
Not voting/Other 19 1.6
Total 1181 100.0
Senate * CD Crosstabulation
% within CD
CD 1 2 Total
Inouye 62.9% 62.6% 62.7%
Cavasso 29.8% 31.4% 30.6%
Undecided 5.0% 5.2% 5.1%
Senate
Not voting/Other 2.3% .9% 1.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
28
Inouye Supporters (741 total):
Reason for Support
Inouye Positive 89.9%
Cavasso Negative 6.7%
SenateReason
Not sure 3.4%
Total 100.0%
Cavasso Supporters (361 total):
Reason for Support
Cavasso Positive 35.5%
Inouye Negative 58.7%
Not sure 5.8%
Total 100.0%
29
“EXIT POLL”: Results of those respondents who say they have already voted are embargoed until 6:00 p.m. on Election Day.
Senate * Voting Crosstabulation
% within Voting
Voting Already voted Definitely vote Probably vote Total
Inouye 65.8% 61.2% 60.0% 62.7%
Cavasso 29.0% 31.1% 40.0% 30.6%
Undecided 3.3% 6.2% 5.1%
Senate
Not voting/Other 2.0% 1.4% 1.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
30
Senate * Obama Crosstabulation
% within Obama
Obama Approve Disapprove Unsure Total
Inouye 84.6% 23.6% 54.2% 62.7%
Cavasso 11.3% 68.9% 6.3% 30.6%
Undecided 3.1% 5.3% 33.3% 5.1%
Senate
Not voting/Other 1.0% 2.3% 6.3% 1.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Obama * Senate Crosstabulation
% within Senate
Senate Inouye Cavasso Undecided Not voting/Other Total
Approve 83.8% 23.0% 38.3% 36.8% 62.2%
Disapprove 12.7% 76.2% 35.0% 47.4% 33.8%
Obama
Unsure 3.5% .8% 26.7% 15.8% 4.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
31
Senate * CountryDirection Crosstabulation
% within CountryDirection
CountryDirection Positive Negative Not sure Total
Inouye 85.8% 27.8% 65.5% 62.8%
Cavasso 10.9% 62.8% 12.7% 30.7%
Undecided 2.7% 6.8% 18.2% 5.0%
Senate
Not voting/Other .6% 2.7% 3.6% 1.5%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
CountryDirection * Senate Crosstabulation
% within Senate
Senate Inouye Cavasso Undecided Not voting/Other Total
Positive 78.3% 20.4% 31.0% 22.2% 57.4%
Negative 16.8% 77.7% 51.7% 66.7% 37.9%
CountryDirection
Not sure 4.9% 2.0% 17.2% 11.1% 4.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
32
Senate * StateDirection Crosstabulation
% within StateDirection
StateDirection Positive Negative Not sure Total
Inouye 69.3% 54.0% 66.1% 63.0%
Cavasso 26.9% 37.6% 14.5% 30.5%
Undecided 2.8% 6.2% 16.1% 4.9%
Senate
Not voting/Other .9% 2.2% 3.2% 1.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
StateDirection * Senate Crosstabulation
% within Senate
Senate Inouye Cavasso Undecided Not voting/Other Total
Positive 60.0% 48.0% 31.6% 33.3% 54.5%
Negative 34.4% 49.4% 50.9% 55.6% 40.1%
StateDirection
Not sure 5.6% 2.5% 17.5% 11.1% 5.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
33
Senate * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender Female Male Total
Inouye 62.9% 62.3% 62.6%
Cavasso 31.3% 30.4% 30.9%
Undecided 4.2% 5.4% 4.7%
Senate
Not voting/Other 1.7% 1.9% 1.8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
34
Senate * Race Crosstabulation
% within Race
Race Asian White Pacific Islander African American Hispanic Two or more Total
Inouye 73.5% 54.4% 70.5% 50.0% 55.6% 55.1% 62.8%
Cavasso 20.1% 40.7% 25.6% 33.3% 44.4% 29.6% 30.8%
Undecided 5.1% 3.0% 2.6% 8.3% 12.2% 4.7%
Senate
Not voting/Other 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 8.3% 3.1% 1.8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Senate * Asian Crosstabulation
% within Asian
Asian Chinese Japanese Filipino Korean Other Mixed Not sure Total
Inouye 55.1% 80.8% 69.2% 70.0% 70.0% 70.4% 100.0% 73.4%
Cavasso 34.8% 14.6% 25.6% 30.0% 10.0% 18.5% 20.1%
Undecided 7.2% 3.8% 2.6% 20.0% 11.1% 5.1%
Senate
Not voting/Other 2.9% .9% 2.6% 1.4%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
35
Senate * Religion Crosstabulation
% within Religion
Religion Catholic Mormon Evangelical Other Christian Jewish Buddhist Other None Total
Inouye 65.6% 57.6% 42.9% 62.7% 64.0% 81.8% 57.3% 67.9% 62.6%
Cavasso 29.2% 30.3% 53.7% 32.9% 36.0% 11.1% 34.7% 19.6% 31.0%
Undecided 3.6% 12.1% 2.7% 2.4% 6.1% 5.3% 8.9% 4.6%
Senate
Not voting/Other 1.5% .7% 2.0% 1.0% 2.7% 3.6% 1.8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
36
Senate * Party Crosstabulation
% within Party
Party Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Total
Inouye 88.6% 23.7% 54.6% 59.7% 62.8%
Cavasso 7.2% 72.6% 36.2% 22.2% 30.7%
Undecided 2.8% 2.7% 7.0% 12.5% 4.6%
Senate
Not voting/Other 1.4% .9% 2.2% 5.6% 1.8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Senate * TeaParty Crosstabulation
% within TeaParty
TeaParty Yes No Unsure Total
Inouye 22.8% 71.5% 55.3% 62.9%
Cavasso 73.8% 22.8% 27.1% 30.7%
Undecided 1.4% 4.0% 15.3% 4.6%
Senate
Not voting/Other 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% 1.8%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
37
Senate * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Total
Inouye 88.3% 72.9% 30.1% 66.4% 62.7%
Cavasso 7.3% 21.8% 63.6% 20.0% 31.0%
Undecided 2.4% 4.0% 4.6% 10.0% 4.5%
Senate
Not voting/Other 2.0% 1.3% 1.7% 3.6% 1.9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
38
Senate * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High School or
less Some College College Graduate Graduate Plus Post Grad Degree Total
Inouye 70.6% 58.3% 60.7% 59.3% 69.1% 63.2%
Cavasso 24.6% 35.2% 33.5% 31.4% 25.1% 30.6%
Undecided 3.2% 6.5% 3.6% 6.8% 2.4% 4.4%
Senate
Not voting/Other 1.6% 2.2% 2.5% 3.4% 1.9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
top related