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This report is produced quarterly by the City of Thornton’s Policy Planning Division to provide up-to-date details on three subjects regarding
the city’s growth: an estimate of the city’s population, the city’s current housing count, and an assessment of anticipated housing unit
construction.
*The City’s quarterly estimating process has been adjusted to better align with third party population estimates produced by the US Census
and the Colorado State Demographer’s office. To achieve this, staff has adjusted tenure rates, vacancy rates, average household sizes, and
housing unit counts.
*A certificate of occupancy certifies that a building is in compliance with applicable building codes and is suitable for occupancy.
4Q’17 QUARTERLY HOUSING & POPULATION REPORT
CITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
DATE PUBLISHED: January 11, 2018
Please contact the Policy Planning Division with any feedback or questions, 303-538-7295.
October 1, 2017 - December 31, 2017
SUMMARY:
The total population estimate at the end of the fourth quarter 2017 is 137,443, which reflects
an addition of 869 people since the previous quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2017, 303 new Certificates of Occupancy (COs) were combined with
existing housing unit counts, bringing Thornton’s residential unit total to 47,801
HIGHLIGHTS:
Ward 1: Had no COs for the tenth quarter in a row.
Ward 3: 142 SFD COs, a slight increase from the previous quarter.
Ward 3 & Ward 4 continue to see the greatest share of development gains in residential COs.
Overall: 20 MF COs, a slight increase from the previous quarter.
Overall: 303 COs: Higher than the 4th quarter average of 157 (2006-2016).
Table 1
Certificates of Occupancy Issued in Each Ward, fourth Quarter, 2017
SFD SFA MF Total
Ward 1 0 0 0 0
Ward 2 23 8 20 51
Ward 3 142 37 0 179
Ward 4 44 29 0 73
Total 209 74 20 303
FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT
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I. POPULATION ESTIMATE
The population estimate for the quarter is updated based on the number of Certificates of
Occupancy (COs) issued during the previous three months. A CO is a document that certifies a
building is in compliance with applicable building codes and suitable for occupancy. For each CO
issued, a new housing unit is added to the housing count. The housing unit count is then combined
with estimated rates by housing type to produce a population count.
Figure 1. indicates the total population
in each ward at the end of the fourth
quarter 2017. The number of people
estimated to have moved into the ward
is in parentheses and is included in the
total.
Figure 1
Population Increase by Ward, fourth Quarter 2017
Population
Estimate: 137,443
Change: +869
Pop: 36,031
(+210)
Pop: 33,550
(+513)
Pop: 33,366
(+0)
Pop: 34,496
(+146)
FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT
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II. HOUSING ESTIMATE
Quarterly housing growth is determined by tracking Certificates of Occupancy (COs) issued during
the previous three months. The number of new COs issued is then added to the city’s existing
housing count to provide the new housing estimate. Figure 2 and Table 2 below include total COs by
housing type over the previous 5 years.
Table 3 Housing Counts by Ward fourth quarter, 2017
Housing By Ward
Table 3 below indicates housing counts by ward at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017. Single-
family detached units continue to constitute the majority of Thornton’s housing at 62 percent.
Figure 3 on the following page displays the geographic distribution of housing types by ward.
Wards 2, 3, and 4 each have a majority of single-family detached units, while Ward 1 has a more
balanced distribution of housing types.
Fourth Quarter 2017
Housing Inventory Count: 47,801
Quarterly Housing Unit Change: +303
FIGURE 2
COs Issued By Housing Type, Previous 5 Years
Table 2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Quarter 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
SFD 73 80 79 63 82 66 61 66 79 58 69 55 101 145 89 113 128 139 128 114 199 209
SFA 5 11 0 4 0 2 3 3 5 16 14 28 24 23 22 14 21 24 59 9 27 74
MF 0 0 25 50 55 90 0 0 0 72 0 6 9 3 45 95 93 48 224 11 16 20
Total 78 91 104 117 137 159 64 69 84 146 83 89 134 171 156 222 242 211 411 134 242 303
0
50
100
150
200
250
CO
s Is
sue
d
Quarter by Year
MF
SFA
SFD
Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Total Percent
Single-family Detached (SFD) 4,614 6,621 9,906 8,717 29,858 63%
Single-family Attached (SFA) 2,064 1,477 1,462 1,614 6,617 14%
Multi-Family 2,874 2,964 303 2,199 8,340 17%
Manufactured Homes (MH) 2,052 934 0 0 2,986 6%
Total 11,604 11,996 11,671 12,530 47,801 100%
FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT
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Figure 3 Percentages of Total Housing, by Type and Ward, Fourth Quarter 2017
55%
12%
25%
8%
85%
12%
3%
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached
Multifamily
Manufactured Homes
40%
18%
25%
17%
70%13%
17%
FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT
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III. FUTURE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ESTIMATE *
* The future residential development estimates process has been altered to provide greater clarity
regarding the construction phasing of future growth in Thornton. Going forward, quarterly reports will
express future development data in the four categories outlined below.
The quarterly estimate of future residential development is determined using the number of
anticipated residential units, which is derived from:
1. Current planning documents
2. Plat records
3. Building Permits (BPs) issued during the previous quarter
As displayed in Figure 4 and Table 4 below, Policy Planning uses four categories to describe the
phases of a development project: Under construction, subdivided, city-zoned, and proposed.
Under Construction — Unbuilt or unfinished units.
Subdivided — Units within an approved subdivision but not yet under construction.
City-Zoned — Units within a zoned area with no further approvals.
Proposed — Units in review process but not approved.
Figure 4
Table 4 Future Housing Units by Type and Stage of Development
**Proposed units are
rounded to reflect the
speculative nature of
unit estimates until a
plat is approved by
the City
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Proposed**
City-Zoned
Subdivided
Under Construction
Number of Units
Project Type
Single-Family Detached 1,811 72% 1,210 81% 2,788 26% 851 23%
Single-Family Attached 327 13% 293 19% 1,321 12% 667 18%
Multifamily 373 15% - - 6,627 62% 2,219 59%
Total 2,511 100% 1,503 100% 10,736 100% 3,737 100%
Proposed**SubdividedUnder Construction City-Zoned
FOURTH QUARTER 2017, POPULATION & HOUSING REPORT
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IV. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
In 2017, a record of 1,090 CO’s were issued compared to 831 in 2016, and 271 in 2011 at the
height of the Great Recession.
Thornton is the 6th largest city in Colorado and continues to be one of the faster growing
communities. This can be partly attributed to its location close to Denver and its relative
affordability as described in this August 24, 2017 article in the Denver Post: http://
www.denverpost.com/2017/08/24/denver-migration-population-boulder-adams-county/
Most recent and projected near-term residential construction remains single-family detached
units (SFD).
The city experienced a spike in multifamily units early in 2017 similar to the rest of the metro
area. http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/report-denver-is-6th-in-the-nation-
for-new-apartment-construction
In Thornton this was mostly due to the construction of an apartment complex at 144th Avenue
and Grant Street. Overall, the city has a very large number of zoned multifamily units still
unbuilt, but it is not certain if these will come to fruition.
FUTURE HOUSING BY WARD
Table 5 Subdivided and Under Construction Units by Ward and Housing Type
Table 5 displays housing units that are the most likely to be constructed in the near future. More
than half of housing units that are subdivided and under construction are expected in Ward 3, locat-
ed in the northeast quadrant of the city. About one-fourth of the remaining total units are expected
in Ward 4.
The current count of proposed units (shown in Table 4) in the City of Thornton is estimated at 3,737.
Additionally, the current count of city-zoned units in the City of Thornton is 10,736. The location of
new projects depends on factors like land availability, zoning, developer preference, proximity to
the North Metro Rail line, and what the housing market will bear.
SFD SFA MF Total % of Total
Ward 1 - 96 - 96 2%
Ward 2 377 208 145 730 18%
Ward 3 1,832 316 - 2,148 54%
Ward 4 812 - 228 1,040 26%
Total 3,021 620 373 4,014 100%
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