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Mexico Between North America and
Latin America
William Polushin, AMAXIS Inc. and McGill University
Chambre de Commerce du Montréal Métropolitain
Mexico:
The Awakening of the Aztec Tiger
15.04.2015, William Polushin
About William Polushin
President, AMAXIS Inc. Business development and market expansion services firm
Lecturing at McGill since 2003 Managing in North America, Managing in Asia, Managing in
Europe, Management in Global Context
Founding Director, McGill Program for International Competitiveness: Trade and Innovation
Past President, Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Mexico
20+ years of international business experience, including 5 years (based in Mexico) as Vice President, Business Development, Mexico and the Caribbean for a global engineering-construction firm
15.04.2015, William Polushin
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico: The Land and the People
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Area (km2) 1,964,375 9,984,670
Population (estimate) 118.4 million 35.7 million
Median Age 27.3 41.7
Ethnic Groups Mestizo 60%
Amerindian 30%
White 9%
Other 1%
Religions (2010 est.) Roman Catholic 82.7%
Protestant 1.6%
Other/Unspecified 15.7%
Roman Catholic 40.6%
Protestant 20.3%
Other /None 39.1%
Languages (2011 est.) Spanish 92.7%
Spanish + Indigenous 5.7%
Other 1.6%
English 58.7%
French 22.0%
Other 19.3%
Mexico: The Land and the People
Sources: Statistics Canada, The World Factbook
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico: The Land and the People
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico’s Economy
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (USD, Seasonally Adjusted, Billions)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
Canada
Mexico
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Source: IMF
Source: IMF
The Trillion Dollar Club (current USD)
2012e 2011 2010 2009
United States $15.65 trillion $15.08 trillion $14.50 trillion $13.97 trillion
China $8.25 trillion $7.30 trillion $5.93 trillion $4.99 trillion
Japan $5.98 trillion $5.87 trillion $5.49 trillion $5.04 trillion
Germany $3.37 trillion $3.61 trillion $3.31 trillion $3.31 trillion
France $2.58 trillion $2.78 trillion $2.57 trillion $2.63 trillion
United Kingdom $2.43 trillion $2.43 trillion $2.27 trillion $2.19 trillion
Brazil $2.43 trillion $2.49 trillion $2.14 trillion $1.62 trillion
Italy $1.98 trillion $2.20 trillion $2.06 trillion $2.12 trillion
India $1.95 trillion $1.83 trillion $1.63 trillion $1.27 trillion
Russia $1.95 trillion $1.85 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.22 trillion
Canada $1.77 trillion $1.74 trillion $1.58 trillion $1.34 trillion
Australia $1.54 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.24 trillion $0.99 trillion
Spain $1.34 trillion $1.48 trillion $1.39 trillion $1.46 trillion
Mexico $1.16 trillion $1,15 trillion $1.04 trillion $0.88 trillion
Korea $1.15 trillion $1.12 trillion $1.01 trillion $0.83 trillion
04.09.2015, WP
Source: Scotia Economics
Real GDP (% change) by Country
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000-2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
Canada
USA
Mexico
Japan
UK
Euro Zone
China
India
Brazil
15.04.2015, William Polushin
The World in 2050 (GDP: PPP versus MER, constant 2009 US$bn)
PPP 2050
Rank Country
Projected
GDP at PPP
MER 2050
Rank Country
Projected
GDP at MER
1 China 59,475 1 China 51,180
2 India 43,180 2 US 37,876
3 US 37,876 3 India 31,313
4 Brazil 9,762 4 Brazil 9,235
5 Japan 7,664 5 Japan 7,664
6 Russia 7,559 6 Russia 6,112
7 Mexico 6,682 7 Mexico 5,800
8 Indonesia 6,205 8 Germany 5,707
9 Germany 5,707 9 UK 5,628
10 UK 5,628 10 Indonesia 5,358
11 France 5,344 11 France 5,344
12 Turkey 5,298 12 Turkey 4,659
13 Nigeria 4,530 13 Italy 3,798
16 Canada 3,322 15 Canada 3,322
Source: PwC
15.04.2015, William Polushin
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Canada
France
Germany
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Sweden
USA
Euro Area
China
India
GDP per Capita, 2002 – 2013 (USD, current prices and PPPs)
15.04.2015, WP
Mexico’s Trade & Investment
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico: Trade Structure
Principal Exports Principal Imports
Manufactured goods Metalworking machines
Oil and oil products Steel mill products
Silver Agricultural machinery
Fruits Electrical equipment
Vegetables Car pars for assembly
Coffee Repair parts for motor vehicles
Cotton Aircraft and aircraft parts
Leading Markets Leading Suppliers
U.S. U.S.
Spain China
Canada Japan
China Germany
Germany South Korea
Source: The World Factbook
15.04.2015, William Polushin
World Merchandise Trade
Exports Imports
Value
US$B
2013 Share
(%)
Value
US$B
2013 Share
(%)
World 18,270 100.0 18,395 100.0
N. America 2,417 13.2 3,198 17.4
U.S. 1,579 8.6 2,331 12.7
Canada 458 2.5 474 2.6
Mexico 380 2.1 391 2.1
Source: Canada’s State of Trade - 2014
15.04.2015, William Polushin
World Services Trade
Exports Imports
Value
US$B
2013 Share
(%)
Value
US$B
2013 Share
(%)
World 4,625 100.0 4,340 100.0
N. America 761 16.5 561 12.9
U.S. 662 14.3 427 9.8
Canada 78 1.7 105 2.4
Mexico 20 0.4 28 0.6
Source: Canada’s State of Trade - 2014
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico: Leading Exporter in Latin America
Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal
15.04.2015, William Polushin
FDI Inflows (Billions USD)
Host
Region/Economy
2005-
2007* 2010 2011 2012 2013
World 1,493.4 1,422.3 1,700.1 1,330.3 1,452.0
EU 651.8 383.7 490.4 216.0 246.2
United States 186.0 198.0 223.8 160.6 187.5
Canada 67.6 28.4 39.7 43.0 62.3
Mexico 25.9 23.4 23.4 17.6 38.3
Asia and Oceania 299.1 411.7 432.9 418.4 429.1
Japan 6.3 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 2.3
China 76.2 114.7 124.0 121.1 123.9
India 17.8 27.4 36.2 24.2 28.2
Korea 10.5 9.5 9.8 9.5 12.2
Source: UNCTAD * Annual average
15.04.2015, William Polushin
FDI Outflows (Billions USD)
Host
Region/Economy
2005-
2007* 2010 2011 2012 2013
World 1,532.2 1,467.6 1,711.7 1,346.7 1,410.7
EU 850.0 483.0 585.3 237.9 250.5
United States 211.0 277.8 386.7 366.9 338.3
Canada 46.1 34.7 52.1 55.4 42.6
Mexico 6.8 15.1 12.6 22.5 12.9
Asia and Oceania 164.6 296.8 305.2 303.8 327.1
Japan 56.5 56.3 107.6 122.5 135.7
China 20.0 68.8 74.7 87.8 101.0
India 11.5 15.9 12.5 8.5 1.7
Korea 14.4 28.3 29.7 30.6 29.2
Source: UNCTAD * Annual average
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Major Investors in Mexico (FDI in Mexico per country of origin; 1999-Q1 2014)
15.04.2015, William Polushin
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico: A Trading Hub (The country’s FTA give privileged access to 1.2 billion consumers)
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Foreign Trade Compass
Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal
15.04.2015, William Polushin
NAFTA: Redefining North American Trade
Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Vehicle Production in NAFTA (1993-2013)
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico holds the pro tempore presidency during 2014 - 2015
15.04.2015, William Polushin
The Pacific Alliance
Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Mexico and the TPP
Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal
Trade Balance of Mexico with the World (2013)
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Leveraging the trade relationship with
Mexico to gain competitive advantage
Traditional Trade Model Competitive Trade Model
CanCo
Exports
FDI
MexCo
Exports
FDI
CanCo / MexCo
Exports
Imports
FDI
CanCo / IntCo
Exports
Imports
FDI
MexCo / IntCo
Exports
Imports
FDI
15.04.2015, William Polushin
Merci beaucoup / Thank-you
William Polushin
williampolushin@amaxis.net or
william.polushin@mail.mcgill.ca
Tel. (514) 865-1976
15.04.2015, William Polushin
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