ch 9.2 changing population trends. the demographic transition describes how populations can change...
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CH 9.2
Changing Population Trends
The Demographic Transition
Describes how populations can change as countries develop.
Industrial development causes economic and social progress that
affects population growth.
Phase 1 (pre-industrial):* BR & DR both at high levels.* Population size stable.* Most of world was in this stage prior to ag & ind revolutions…
Phase 2 (transitional):* Population “explosion” occurs.* DR declines as hygiene, nutrition education improve.* BR remains high.* Doubling time short.
Phase 3 (transitional):* Population growth slows as BR decreases.* Population size stabilizes as BR & DR get closer.* Population much larger than before the transition.
Phase 4 (post-industrial):* BR drops below replacement level.* Population size begins to decrease.* Takes from 1 to 3 generations for phase 4 to be reached.
Women & Fertility• Increasing education & economic independence are
important factors in decline of birth rates.• In demographic transition phase 2, lower death
rates are due to better-educated mothers.– Better survival rates(no need to have 4 babies so 2
survive past childhood).– Women learn “family planning” techniques.– Women are able to contribute more to family’s
prosperity because less time & energy are spent on bearing/caring for children.
– Countries wanting to reduce BR have placed a priority on the education of women!
…women controlthe breeding inmost species…
Women & Fertility
• Large families may be good if kids work or take care of older relatives…or if it’s 1824…
• …but as countries modernize, both parents work - $ spent on child care make kids a financial burden rather than an asset.– Current TFR in developed countries: 1.6 children
per woman…– Current TFR in developing countries: 3.1 children
per woman!
Changing Population Trends• Countries that have “phased “ through the
demographic transition have large, stable populations and long life expectancies…
• ..but on their way, their rapid population growth (phase 2) has created environmental problems as their infrastructure becomes overwhelmed.– suburban sprawl…overcrowded schools…polluted
rivers…barren land…inadequate housing
Ciudad Juarez
Anywhere, CA
Problems of Rapid Growth• A rapidly growing population can use up
resources faster than the local environment can renew them.
• Vegetation…water…land…
Fuelwood Shortage• …in poor countries, wood is primary fuel
source (cooking/heat)…• Deadwood cannot supply need for rapidly
growing population…living trees go down! Deforestation results.
• Water supplies sometimes must boiled for sterilization against waterborne pathogens…without enough fuelwood, bad water can result in disease & malnutrition.
Unsafe Water• Poorer countries may use the same water source for
drinking, bathing washing clothes, and sewage disposal…
• Without the proper infrastructure (separation of sewer lines & fresh water lines) local water supplies can become breeding grounds for organisms that cause disease:– Dysentery– Cholera– Typhoid
Land
• Competition for available land: agriculture…housing…natural habitats
• Arable land can be reduces by suburban sprawl…urbanization leads to traffic jams, inadequate infrastructure, pollution…housing for extra humans leads to high cost and reduces the area originally inhabited by the wild species.
Demographic Diversity• Not all countries are progressing through the
phases of the demographic transition according to the model.– some have modern industries, but income
remains low…– some have stable, educated populations with little
industrialization…– some are “stuck” in the second phase, but cannot
make enough economic/educational advancement to reduce the BR.
Least Developed Countries
• Little/no development.• Both DR & BR increasing.• United Nations identifies these countries for
priority treatment (foreign aid & other perks) to help their population growth & environmental issues.
Managing Development & Economic Growth
• LD countries recognize that population growth prevents them from economic development.
• Countries have tried to reduce BR by:– Public advertising/education– Family planning programs– Economic incentives– Legal punishments
ICPD(International Conference on Population & Development)
• Provide access to family planning methods & reproductive health services.
• Reduce infant and child mortality rates.• Lower maternal mortality rate.• Provide access to primary education; focus on
secondary education access for girls & women.
The Future
• Human population is more than 7 billion and still increasing.
• The world’s population growth rate peaked @ 1990…
• Fertility rates in both developed/less developed countries are also declining…
• If this trend continues, world population growth would eventually stop.
Population Growth in the three most populous countries, 1950-2050
Japan
Madagascar
Japan• Pop. 127.77 million• Population growth
rate = -0.088%• Total fertility rate =
1.23• Arable land = 11.64%
Madagascar• Pop. 19 million
• Population growth rate = 3.008%
• Total fertility rate = 5.24
• Arable land = 5.03%
Japan• GN income per capita is
$28,450• 2nd wealthiest country in
the world• 99% of the country is
literate• Life expectancy = 82.02
years• People living with
HIV/AIDS: 0.009%
Madagascar•GN income per capita is $800
•Population below poverty line = 50%
•68.9% of the country is literate
•Life expectancy = 62.14 years
•People living with HIV/AIDS: 0.74%
…thanks for your kind attention!
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