central asia and south caucasus region foresight

Central Asia and South Caucasus Central Asia and South Caucasus REGION FORESIGHTREGION FORESIGHT

Presentation Made by CACAARI for GCARD Pre-Conference Inter-

Regional Forum Meeting

Oleg ShatberashviliGeorgian Federation for Information and Documentation,Member of CACAARI Steering Council

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• 5 countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) and 3 countries of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)

• The area exceeding 4 million sq.km (about 3 % of the Earth's dry land)• Population of about 75 million, more than 40% in rural area• 70% of poor reside in rural area• A sharp rise in food prices put at risk part of the population (20-50%,

depending on country) falling into the category of the poor• In 2007-2011 agricultural production in all countries except Georgia

was growing. However, no country has yet reached a volume of agricultural production of 1990.

• All countries are net food importers. The deficit compensated through import is between 70% (Georgia) and 30% (Armenia, Kazakhstan).

• Agricultural future of the countries is both of regional and global importance

Agricultural and Food Agricultural and Food Challenges in CAC RegionChallenges in CAC Region

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• Current significant deficiency of locally produced food

• Climate change, water problems, soil degradation, deforestation, etc.

• Sudden emergence of large number of smallholders• Extremely low agricultural GERD (0.1 – 0.25 of GDP)• Weak agriculture advisory services

Agricultural and Food Challenges Agricultural and Food Challenges in CAC Regionin CAC Region

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• Limited number of research works devoted to the future of agriculture

• Examples:– An overview of agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus

and CGIAR program for sustainable development– Water Quality, Cropping and Small Ruminants: Future

Agriculture in Dry Areas of Uzbekistan– Some aspects of development of grain agriculture of

Kazakhstan in view of possible climate change– Research Prospectus: A Vision for Sustainable Land

Management Research in Central Asia• Limited local ownership

Foresight in Central Asia and the Foresight in Central Asia and the South Caucasus (1)South Caucasus (1)

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• Technological Foresight of Kazakh Agro-Industrial Sector’s Priority Directions Development (2014-2020, 351 pages, in Russian)

• Methodology: desktop review of published and unpublished sources, brain storming, DELPHY, SWOT-analysis, key technology selection, other.

• Centre for Economical Policy Analysis of Agro-Industrial Sector of Kazakhstan

• Authors will be involved in the work of Forward Thinking Platform

Foresight in Central Asia and the Foresight in Central Asia and the South Caucasus (2)South Caucasus (2)

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• Foresights are not conducted in the region on the regular bases

• A survey of foresight activities in the region and their influence on priority settings is a task for the future

Foresight and Setting Priorities in Foresight and Setting Priorities in CACCAC

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• Foresight with a local ownership should become a regular part of AR4D activities in the region

• Low level of agricultural GERD may be an obstacle to it

Lessons learnedLessons learned

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

• The status of foresight in the Region was discussed at the CACAARI annual meeting

• CACAARI will focus attention on the further development of foresight in

the region take a capacity building measures to insure promotion of

foresight-based research in the region.

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CACAARI CommitmentsCACAARI Commitments

TITLE OF THE TOPIC(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural

Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

Thank You