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Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
1
Trends in Trends in TelecommunicationsTelecommunications
ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias
October 2004
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
2
Trends in CommunicationsTrends in Communications
--An Environment OverviewAn Environment Overview
Celia DesmondPresident
World Class –Telecommunications
Past President IEEE Communications Society President IEEE Canada (2000-2001)
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
3ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Value Chain and Main Categories Value Chain and Main Categories of Players in Telecom Industryof Players in Telecom Industry
Material Suppliers
Material Suppliers
ElectronicComp.
Provider
ElectronicComp.
Provider
Original Equip.
Manuf.
Original Equip.
Manuf.
Equip.Vendor
Equip.Vendor Service
Provider
ServiceProvider
Electronic ComponentProvider:
IntelQualcomm BroadcomJDSU
…
Electronic ComponentProvider:
IntelQualcomm BroadcomJDSU
…
OriginalEquipmentManufacture:
FlextronicsCelestica
…
OriginalEquipmentManufacture:
FlextronicsCelestica
…
EquipmentVendor:
CiscoAlcatelEricssonMotorolaNortel LucentSiemensNEC …
EquipmentVendor:
CiscoAlcatelEricssonMotorolaNortel LucentSiemensNEC …
ServiceProvider:
VerizonSBCNTT DoCoMoDeutsche TelekomVodafoneChina TelecomBell Canada …
ServiceProvider:
VerizonSBCNTT DoCoMoDeutsche TelekomVodafoneChina TelecomBell Canada …
ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
4 Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
Telecommunications Service Industry Telecommunications Service Industry Key Players in CanadaKey Players in Canada
2001Revenue
$32.8 Billion
Wireless Providers
Bell Wireless Alliance Paging CompaniesTelus Mobility e.g., PageNet CanadaRogers Allstream WirelessOther Radio CommonMicrocell Telecommunications Carriers
Wireline Competitive Providers
Alternative Providers ofLong-Distance Services
e.g., Allstream (June 2003)Call-Net (Sprint Canada)
Competitive Local ExchangeCarriers
e.g., Futureway CommunicationsGT Group Telecom
Competitive Pay TelephoneProviders
e.g., Canadian Payphone Corp.
Satellite & Other Telecom Providers
Satellitee.g., Telesat Canada
TMI communications, Stratos Global Corp.
Resellerse.g., Primus Telecommunications
$6.6 Billion
$21.8Billion
$2.7Billion
$1.6 Billion
Wireline
Incumbent Carriers
Major Telephone Companies:
Bell Canada
Telus
Aliant
MTS
Sask Tel
Northwest Tel
Independent Telephone
Companies
e.g., Thunder Bay Telephone
Incumbent Overseas Carrier
Teleglobe Source: Statistics Canada and company annual reports
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
5ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Global Telecom MarketGlobal Telecom Market
Local Services
DLD ILDMobile
ServicesGlobal Market Size
(US$B)308 205 91 227
North America 35% 42% 31% 28%Asia Pacific 21% 19% 18% 30%
Europe 29% 25% 32% 31%CALA 12% 10% 11% 8%RoW 3% 4% 8% 3%
2000 Market Size of US $880B
Asia Pacific23%
RoW4%
North America34%
CALA9%
Europe30%
2000 Market Share by Services
Mobile27%
Local37%
ILD11%
DLD25%
2000 Global Telecom Market Share Breakdown:
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
6ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Global Telecom Market: Since 2000Global Telecom Market: Since 2000
“We built it, and they didn’t come”
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
7ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Out of businessOut of business
Aleron
360Networks Digital Teleport
Enron Broadband
Ebone/GTS
FLAG Telecom Global Crossing
GST
Impsat
KPNQwest
Sigma Networks
Sphera
Storm TelecommunicationsTeleglobe
Telergy
Velocita
Viatel
Williams Communications
AdelphiaBroadband Office
Metromedia
Convergent Com
Covad
ICG Comm
FastComm
Global Telecom
North Point
Rhythms
McLeodUSA
OnSite
NetConnections
XOCommun
Yipes
WINfirst
ZephionIridium
Omnisky
Metricom
NextWave
PSINet
Ardent Excite@home
Exodus
iBeam
NetRail
Globalstar
StarBand
Motient
ART
WinStar
Teligent
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
8ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Telecommunications Equipment Telecommunications Equipment ManufacturersManufacturers Orders for communications equipment reached a peak at
about $13.3 billion in June 2000, steadily to about $3.6 billion in September 2001.
Industry operating at about 55% of capacity, down from 87% in May 2000.
In 2001, sales revenues for telecom equipment, declined by nearly 28% from the prior year.
Revenues fell further in 2002. Economy.com forecasted revenue to decline 19% in 2002 Profits were down in 2001, and remained weak in 2002. Headcount in top 10 companies is 1/2 that 10 years ago
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
9ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
ICT Market (1999-2002)ICT Market (1999-2002)Value in Millions of DollarsValue in Millions of Dollars
Fonte: Assinform / NetConsulting
681.7
556.5
391.4
242.8
761.2
625
435.3
293.4
759.2
661.3
474.5
323.1
754.6
658.6
483.2
337.9
1999 2000 2001 2002
North America(Canada & USA)
Asia – Pacific(Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and Asia Pacific countries)
Europe
1.872
13%
11.7%
12.3%
11.2%
20.8%
2.115
-0.6%
-0.4%
1.8%
4.6%
2.234
Rest of World
4.9%2.218
0.7%
-0.3%
5.8%
9%
10.9%
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
10ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
TLC marketTLC market
Fonte: Assinform / NetConsulting
1.9%
-2.8%-2.2%
0.9%
-1.7%
3.4%
6.5%
3.6%
IT TLCNorth America
Europe AsiaRest of the world
% 2002/2001% 2002/2001
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
11ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
So where are we now?So where are we now?
Telecom Service Industry is a Trillion Dollar Industry – 1,300 billion at end of 2002
Telecom services make up 75% of the industry, with Telecom Equipment broken into 13% infrastructure equipment, 7% mobile handsets, 5% enterprise equipment
Overall this industry represents 3% of GDP Americas 43%, EMEA 34% and Asia Pacific 24%
• Telecom industry is still a large and very viable industry
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
12ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
If we add the IT marketIf we add the IT market
2002 Market Size in Revenue is $2,200B
Telecom makes up 57% 46% in the Americas, 22% Asia
Pacific, 34% EAME IT services are 57%, hardware 33%,
software 10%
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
13ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
2004 Update2004 Update
US Dept of Commerce – only 21,000 jobs added in Feb 2004, despite economic growth since summer 2003
Unemployment in computing at 5.2% in 2003, as compared to 2% in years in last decade – as opposed to 6% rate in all jobs, compared to an earlier 4%
Causes: outsourcing, automation and business strategy Companies using the investments they made in the 90’s rather
than researching, developing and deploying new technologies Total focus on cost cutting 80% of CEO’s surveyed recently say they will shift focus to
new growth projectsSource: International Herald Tribune, March 10, 2004
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
14ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
PC, PDA, Cell Phone sales PC, PDA, Cell Phone sales (2000-2002)(2000-2002)
Source: Assinform / NetConsulting
Millions of Units
128
123
130
11.7
12.8
11
405
390
410
PC's
PDA's
Cell Phones
2000
2001
2002
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
15ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Cellular Growth in the USCellular Growth in the US
Yes, there is still some good news:
~141M subscribers as of Dec 2002
10% Y/Y growth in subscriptions
36% Y/Y growth in minutes
20.8% Y/Y growth in capital investment
Forecast data revenues ~$1B in 2003
Source: CTIA Wireless Industry Survey, Mar 2003
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
16
Cellular Local Number Portability Cellular Local Number Portability
• FCC Mandate in 2003 for LNP between US Cellcos
• US Cellular service commoditized-
Few differentiators:• Price• Bundled cell phone• Technology transparent to
users
Retention factors today:• Contract termination
penalty• Need to change phone #
when changing carriers
Impact on Cellular carriers: Increased Churn Rate
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
17ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Wireless PossibilitiesWireless Possibilities
3G WiFi Ultrawideband Bluetooth WiMax ZigBee
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
18ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Wi-Fi is Driving Rapid ChangeWi-Fi is Driving Rapid Change
Wi Fi is today’s “hottest” new technology Allows users to create Wireless Local Area
Networks (WLANS) with high speed internet service
Analysts predict 700 million users and a nearly U.S. $3 billion worldwide market by 2007
54 million laptops, PDAs, televisions and other devices with Wi Fi will be sold in 2004 4 times as many as in 2002
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
19ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
IEEE 802.11 “WiFi” LAN IEEE 802.11 “WiFi” LAN Properties Properties
Properties Power: 100 mW max Configuration: Hierarchical or Ad-Hoc Spectrum: 2.4 and 5.8 GHz Unlicensed bands Channel BW: 20 MHz (Overlapping) Two modulation technologies are available:
CDMA: 802.11b @ 2.4 GHz OFDM: 802.11a @ 5.8 GHz, 802.11g @ 2.4 GHz
CSMA/CA LAN Protocol (Carrier Sensing Multiple Access/Collision Avoidance)
Security via station authentication Data rates up to 11 MB (b), 55 Mb (a and g) Actual data rates are usually much lower Maximum range ~100M with clear LOS in LAN configuration
Some specialized point-point applications up to 20 km.
The WiFi Alliance is an organization of vendors and users, that provides interoperability standards and testing to equipment compliant with IEEE 802.11 standards
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
20ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Wi Fi Standards Wi Fi Standards
Wi Fi = IEEE 802.11 WLAN standards--Compete with each other for market share
IEEE 802.11a -- data rates to 54 Mb/s in the 5 GHz band IEEE 802.11b – 11 Mb/s in 2.4 GHz band
Today’s leading Wi Fi technology IEEE 802.11g – 54 Mb/s in 2.4 GHz band
Backwards compatible with .11b at higher speeds– Opens possibilities for wireless multimedia video transmission and broadcast MPEG. Catching on quickly.
IEEE 802.11n – work just starting – plans to increase data rates to over 100 Mb/s
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
21ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
WiFi HotSpot service is a major growth area
• Leading providers, T-Mobile, Boingo, Wayport Access, Megabeam (UK)
• Service by subscription or open (e.g. hereUare)• Important partnerships developing
– T-Mobile / Starbucks (subscription)– Cometa / McDonalds (open)– Holiday Inn / Megabeam (open)
• Valid 3G alternative for portable services– Ubiquity of 802.11 interface- being built into new
laptops– Unbeatably low equipment costs– Low capitalization, no incremental spectrum
802.11 and a Double Latte, please…..802.11 and a Double Latte, please…..
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
22ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Wi Fi Faces Fierce Competition Wi Fi Faces Fierce Competition from Other Technologies from Other Technologies
Limited range: only about 50 meters from base station; hundreds of base stations needed to match coverage of single cell phone station
Addressing security concerns Next generation security solution in
development: IEEE 802.11i Will include new encryption, keys exchange
and authentication methods
Development of Ultrawideband could impact Wi Fi
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
23ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Ultrawideband to Offer Full Ultrawideband to Offer Full MobilityMobility
UWB is super high speed, low power personal area networking technology suited for wireless multimedia applications
High data rate of 1 gigabit per second allows movement of massive files over short distances
Short range of 30- 60 feet -- an advantage if operating multiple independent links at one location
UWB transmits low power streams of extremely short pulses over a huge section of radio frequency spectrum Uses either orthogonal frequency division
modulation or direct sequencing
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
24ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Ultrawideband Ultrawideband
Many potential revolutionary consumer and specialized business uses: For example, at home: wireless users could move data from
PC to stereo, from DVD to TV On road: might transfer data from laptop in truck to handheld
computer; send email In business: doctors could look at patients charts and view
digital xrays
Expected to grow from 0 now to 6 million UWB nodes embedded in devices by 2007
No standard yet: IEEE 802.15.3a in development--high speed, physical layer Market is not waiting: Motorola already selling chips based on
early version
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
25ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Bluetooth “Wireless Cables” Bluetooth “Wireless Cables”
• Bluetooth is a low power, short range data transfer technology
• Moderate date rates
• Applications primarily as cable replacements
• Support of mesh network configurations
• Frequency-hopping spread spectrum technology in the 2.4 GHz ISM band
The Bluetooth SIG is an industry association dedicated to the development and application of equipment based on the IEEE 802.15.1 spec.
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
26ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
WiMax Ideal for Rural AreasWiMax Ideal for Rural Areas WiMax will use either licensed or unlicensed parts of
the radio spectrum As fast as traditional broadband but potentially less
expensive; relatively easy to create Well suited to rural areas as those found in Russia- no
need for wired “last mile” British Telecom testing an 802.12a product now in
small, remote Northern Ireland village; if successful, may roll out across UK
In addition to Internet access, WiMax can also carry voice over Internet Protocol--another technology I’ll address shortly
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
27ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
WiMax Faces Some WiMax Faces Some ObstaclesObstacles
Many proprietary systems- affects device interoperability
systems from Cisco, Motorola, Tsunami
Other systems based on IEEE 802.16 standard or corresponding one from the European Telecommunications Standards Institute
Intel, Nokia, Alvarion Ltd among about 40 companies in WiMax Forum working to eliminate barriers to adoption of standard, such as interoperability and cost of deployment
No mobile version yet
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
28ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
IEEE 802.16 “WiMAX” WAN IEEE 802.16 “WiMAX” WAN PropertiesProperties
Properties Power: Varies with band. Profiles from 100 Mw up to 2W Configuration: P-P and P-MP Cellular Spectrum: Initially 3.5 GHz licensed and 5.8 GHz unlicensed bands Radio interface: OFDM, using 256 tones Access Protocols:
Downstream: TDM (Broadcast) Upstream: TDMA with access contention
Security via station authentication and encryption Data rates variable with channel bandwidth 3.5 MHz in 3.5 GHz band, 20 MHz in
5.8 GHz band Actual realizable data rates are ~ 2b/Hz
Maximum range ~2Km for indoor Non-LOS cellular service at 3.5 GHz Indoor NLOS 2nd Gen interoperable products in 2006
The WiMAX Forum is an organization of vendors and users, that will provide interoperability standards and testing to WAN equipment compliant with IEEE 802.16a/d/e standards. It is described as “WiFi on steroids”.
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
29ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
ZigBee: ZigBee: Ultra-low power TelemetryUltra-low power Telemetry
• 802.15.4 is a simple data protocol for low-capacity wireless networks intended for telemetry and control
• Optimized for very low power, extremely long battery life
• Applications as Active RFID tag
• Support of mesh network configurations
• Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum technology
• Three unlicensed bands, 27 channels specified
– 868.3 MHz 1 Channel 20 Kb/sec– 902-28 MHz 10 Channels 40 Kb/sec– 2.4 GHz 16 Channels 250 Kb/sec
The ZigBee Alliance is an industry association dedicated to interoperability of equipment conforming to the IEEE 802.15.4 spec.
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
30ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Comparison of Wireless Data Comparison of Wireless Data TechnologiesTechnologies
Technology 3G CellularWiMAX™(802.16d/e)
Wi-Fi™(802.11b)
ZigBee™(802.15.4)
Bluetooth™(802.15.1)
Typical Application
Wide Area Voice & Data
Wide Area Data
Data/Voice LAN
Control & Telemetry
Cable Replacement
Battery Life (days)
1-7 N/A N/A 100 - 1,000+ 1 - 7
Bandwidth (KB/s)
100-2000 1K-40K 11,000+ 20 - 250 720
Typical Range (m)
1,000+ 1K-30K 1 - 100 1 - 100+ 1 - 10+
Key Attributes
Coverage, Quality
Throughput, Coverage
Cost, Speed, Flexibility
Cost, Power, Flexibility
Cost, Simplicity
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
31ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
2004 Update2004 Update Total Service Revenues Rise Nearly 13 percent -- U.S. carriers
earned service revenues of $41.4 billion in the first six months of 2003, up from $36.7 billion in the first six months of 2002.
Data Service Revenues Up 70 percent -- Total reported data service revenues reached $700 million in the first six months of 2003, up 70 percent from $411 million in the first six months of 2002.
Minutes of Use Up 30 percent -- Total billable minutes of use (MOUs) for the first half of 2003 were over 380 billion -- up more than 30 percent from 292 billion for the first half of 2002.
Monthly SMS Traffic Up Over 31 percent -- Reported SMS traffic for the month of June 2003 was over 1.2 billion -- up more than 31 percent from 930 million in June 2002.
Ref: CTIA
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
32ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
2004 Update (Continued)2004 Update (Continued)
Digital Subscribership Reaches 92 percent -- The number of digital subscribers topped 128.3 million, an increase of nearly 17 percent since June 2002.
Wireless Investment Up Over 13 percent -- Wireless carriers reported over $134 billion in total cumulative capital investment in the first six months of 2003 -- up from $118.4 billion in the first six months of 2002.
Total Wireless Subscribership Up 10 percent -- Overall wireless subscribership increased to 148.1 million by June 2003, from 134.6 million as of June 2002.
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
33ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
The Growth of InternetThe Growth of Internet
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Nu
mb
er o
f In
tern
et h
osts
(m
illio
ns)
Growth in the Number of Internet Hosts (1991-1999)
Internet 2000 Over 300 million users online
Worldwide Internet Users (3Q’2000): North America - 147.48 M Europe - 91.82 M Asia/Pacific Region - 75.5 M Latin America - 13.19 M Africa - 2.77 M Middle East - 1.9 M Growth estimated over 500,000 new users per month Business is the fastest growth area
(Source: Microsoft)
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
34ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
IP Telephony Market OpportunityIP Telephony Market Opportunity
From $314 million (U.S.) in 2000 to $4.02 billion (U.S.) in 2007
IP Telephony as % of all int’l calls in 2004
IDC forecasts that “Web Talk” revenues will reach US$16.5 bn by 2004 with 135 billion mins of traffic Tarifica forecast 40% Analysys forecast 25%
In developing countries, the majority of IP Telephony calls are incoming
(Source: IDC)
“Web Talk” revenues, US$bn
0.208
16.5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2004
But it didn’t take off yet!
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
35ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Electronic CommerceElectronic Commerce - Growth of E-commerce- Growth of E-commerce
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth of E-commerce (in billions)
(Source:IDC)
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
36ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
The Next Generation Network: Internet2
low bandwidth best effort
transport protocols low security no allocation
Static applications e-mail file transfer browsing
high bandwidth quality of service
middleware user authentication cost-allocation
Real time applications interactive client server teleconferencing telepresence virtual environments collaboratories
Mission StatementFacilitate and coordinate the development, deployment, operation and technology transfer of advanced, network-based applications and network services to further U.S. leadership in research and higher education and accelerate the availability of new services and applications on the Internet
Mission StatementFacilitate and coordinate the development, deployment, operation and technology transfer of advanced, network-based applications and network services to further U.S. leadership in research and higher education and accelerate the availability of new services and applications on the Internet
Internet Vs. Internet 2
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
37ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Impact of ApplicationsImpact of Applications
DSL expecting solid growth Fast ethernet to gigabit crossover in 2004 E-business applications more bandwidth intensive
Implies tremendous growth for internet
Network doubling each year implies 1000 times the traffic in 10 years
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
38ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Value Proposition Value Proposition In total, service providers of revenue generation network services can provide
systems that have 5 basic pieces: A variety of access systems ranging from wireless to circuit to packet
systems A set of transport switching and routing systems that has an optical core A set of network services that build on top of the transport to make them
useful A layer of network management to perform element and multi-element
network management A layer of service provisioning systems performing customer care, billing,
trouble tracking/dispatching, etc.
In providing any portion of these services, the basic value proposition should
include reliability, manageability, and multiservice
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
39ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
One Proposition - Broadband One Proposition - Broadband ServicesServices
Mobile services, local loop unbundling and VOIP causing decline in fixed market
In Hong Kong, voice services and broadband services are saturated
PCCW now offering TV, aiming for broadband data With over 30 channels of TV, they attracted 100,000
customers within 2 months Reference: Infocom 2004 - Dr. Liang Wu,
PCCW
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
40ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Another ApproachAnother Approach
SK Telecom has 55% of the Korean mobile market (47M people, 70% penetration)
They offer fixed and wireless internet and even handsets Offered 2G in 1999, 2.5G in 2001, 3G November 2002 Subscriber base growing rapidly with 3G offerings
• Services
– Ring tones 23%
– Games 8%
– Chatting 4%
– Shopping 2% SK Telecom has a joint venture with China Unicom Not all Korean experience will transfer directly to Chinese market - need to study
itSource: Infocom 2004, John Liu, CEO SK Telecom in China
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
41ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
POTSISDN
PSTNSignalingGateway
POTS
ISDN
Cable Modem
xDSL
ResidentialGateway
• Billing Servers• Name Servers• Messaging Servers• Data VPN
SessionManagers
Service andBusiness
Management
NetworkDatabases
Network Services
NIU
Fixed Wireless
A Network VisionA Network Vision
BusinessMUX
POTSISDN
POTSISDN
OC3
xDSLRemote
VoiceATMLANs
NIU
Business Wireless
Firewall
MobileWireless Access
Residential AccessBusiness Access
Gateway
ATM Switches& IP Routers
Internet
PSTN
Multi-MediaResource
ServerFeatureServers
PacketGateway
PacketGateway
PacketGateway
Wireless,Wireless,Comm SftwComm SftwWireless,Wireless,Comm SftwComm Sftw
Wireless Access Gateway (
MobilityServer
ApplicationProcessor
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
42ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
New Trends in TelecommunicationsNew Trends in Telecommunications
Convergence of telecommunications, computation and entertainment, leading to innovative new services
Bandwidth expansion The great rates war Migration of intelligence Globalization Create need for both technical skills and personal management skills Emerging role of consumer electronics
Sony announced new line of television and appliances with WiFi Intel supports WiFi in domestic environment Centrino and various chip for enabling WiFi on appliances Trend toward non-hierarchical networks, wireless routers, hot spot Software radio
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
43ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
What about the business What about the business perspective?perspective?
Since 1993, major mainframe/server manufacturers changed - only 1 of 18 major manufacturers left today (Kevin Kalkhoven OFC 2003)
PC’s replaced mainframe - market shift - financed by individuals rather than corporations
Grew as % of GDP from 2% in 1991 to 10% in 2001 US business and consumer expenditures flat at 2% - so
telecom needs to find a similar new market in order to grow more than the GDP
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
44ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Top CompaniesTop Companies
1997 Revenues $M
Alcatel 30,880
Lucent 30, 147
Motorola 29,794
Ericsson 21,242
Nortel 15,475
2002 Revenues $M
Motorola 30,004
Nokia 27,763
Ericsson 22,369
Alcatel 22,567
Cisco 18,915
Factset and Band of American Securities estimates
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
45ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
2002 Year End Actuals2002 Year End Actuals Americas
• Motorola• Cisco• Lucent• Nortel
Europe• Nokia• Seimens• Alcatel• Ericsson
Asia• Fujitsu• NEC
26.7
19.2
10.8
10.6
28.5
18.5
16.5
15.0
13.6
11.3
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
46ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Network EvolutionNetwork Evolution
To survive, networks must be Evolvable Scalable Flexible Have open standards Be easy to maintain and operate Be open to rapid service development Be priced competitively Support multiple services
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
47ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Where is Networking going?Where is Networking going?
Future Internet will be the basis for high speed global networking
Security is very important for e-Business to take off Rapid growth and diversification of the ISP Market Upgrading the Local Access Infrastructure Growing Role for Wireless Services WAN, MAN, LAN,
CAN, HAN - 3G in NA???, 3G now in Asia Voice and data convergence generating new integrated
services
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
48ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
Market DynamicsMarket Dynamics
Revenue of voice and data are split as 80% and 20% in 2000
Local voice in single digit growth Traditional data in single digit and
Internet services in double digit growth ILD and DLD voice flat to decline Mobile in rapid growth Optical bandwidth glut is triggering
price declining in Data/Internet services
2000 Market Size of US $880B
Asia Pacific23%
RoW4%
North America34%
CALA9%
Europe30%
2000 Market Share by Services
Mobile27%
Local37%
ILD11%
DLD25%
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
49ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
CompetitionCompetition-the technology perspective-the technology perspective
Transport• T1, PRI, T3, Optical (SONET, SDH, DWDM), Microwave, and
Satellite Access
• ISDN, DSL, Cable Modem, Broadband Fixed Access, Wireless access, and Satellite
Switching• Frame Relay, ATM, IP Routing, MPLS, and Gigabit Ethernet
Mobile• GSM, TDMA, CDMA, GPRS, 1xRTT, WCDMA, and
CDMA2000
Celia Desmond IEEE Communications Society
50ANDICOM’2004 Cartegena de Indias October 2004
ConclusionConclusion
•More content format
•More network-based services
•More technology changes
•Changes in end user’s device
•…
Internal Influences•Service definition•Service design•Network design•Customer service levels•Special technology and vendors
Ext. Influences•Regulatory•Technology•Standards•Marketplace
Technology Influences•Speed – BW•Security•Access terminal•Standards Service Influences
•Intelligence move to edge•Peer-to-peer application•Free service model failed•New killer application
Future: Network-Centric Age Content-Centric Age
InternetTelecom
New Influences •Regulatory•Market•Competition
+
Gradual fading away of circuit switching ...
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