cdr data analysis for epidemic control (itu) 20160126 · cdr data analysis for epidemic control itu...

CDR Data Analysisfor Epidemic Control

ITU Technical Team for CDAECProf. R. Shibasaki,Dr. H.Kanasugi,

Dr.A.Watayangkurn andDr.W. Ohira

2015.08.26SHIBASAKI & SEKIMOTO LAB. CSIS/IIS/EDITORIA. UTOKYO 3

Estimated People Movements (2015.06.07) N=640,504

Entire Sierra Leone

Freetown Bo

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People Flow (7, June 2015) Sierra Leone

Freetown(CapitalCity)

Kenema(Hospital)

Possibleepicenter?

MapofSierraLeone

Contribution of CDR Analysis• Real-time Information on People Flow will help

– Ebola outbreak analysis and control– Evacuation Guidance from Floods– Road Planning and Management etc.– Transboundary movement could be estimated by using IMSI, if

randomized with the same seed number.• For MNOʼs

– Base station optimization etc.

6

PrivacyisProtectedwithRandomization

7

IMSI,IMEIetc

Identificationinformation

connectedtoaspecificuser

RandomizedID

Randomized,uniquenumber

NOT connectedtoaspecificuser

Randomization

RegulatoryAuthorities（Analyst@ITU)

Impossible torestoreIMSIandIMEIfromthe

RandomizedID.

ByMNO(MobileNetworkOperator)

AggregatedAnalysisResults

CDR(CallDetailRecord)data

8

data

data

Dataontimeandlocation(basestation)ofvoice/messaging/datacommunicationofeachhand-setforbillingpurposes.Dataisrecordedonlywhencalling,messaginganddatacommunication.

AnImportantFinding

• Shiftingfromruralareastocitiesandtownsfortheoutbreak.– TogetherwithPeopleFlow.

HowtoTrackPeopleFlow?

• QuestionnaireorInterview?

• Countingvehiclesatgatesorsurveillancepoints?

• Cellularphonedata(CDRanalysis)!

HowtoIdentifytheLocationofSubscribers?

Source:http://www.itisholdings.com/article.asp?id=296http://5.freshminutes.it/2008/05/20/geolocalisation-mobile-computing/

Cell-IDLocation:<coarse>100m.– 4km.

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GPSLocation:<good>10m.– 200m.

Needtoembedlocationdatatransmissionsoftware

Allhand-setscanbecoveredwithoutanyadditional softwareforhand-sets.

Allhand-sets

Movementofahandset(CELLTOWERMigration)

MappingMovementofaHandsetfromCDRdata

Staypoints

Estimatingrouteandstaypointsofasubscriberthroughinterpolation.

è RepeatingforallN

subscribers

EstimatingMovingRouteandStayPointsofaSubscriberfromtheMovementoftheHandset

Move

Stay

Time

Space0:00am

6:00am

12:00pm

Aggregation EstimatedMovingRouteandStayPointsofaSubscriber

EstimatingHourlyPopulationDensitybyAggregatingNumberofPeopleinaGrid-Cell.

Needtoestimatescalingfactor to covertsubscribernumber tototalpopulationAt8:00AM

CallingDemandDensityataspecifictimeslotbyusingpopulationdensityandcallingbehaviormodel

Needtoestimatecallingdemandoftotalpopulationbasedon“callingbehaviormodel”.

Optimizingcelltowerlocation

SHIBASAKI & SEKIMOTO LAB. CSIS/IIS/EDITORIA. UTOKYO 17

People Flow (7, June 2015) Freetown

2015.08.26SHIBASAKI & SEKIMOTO LAB. CSIS/IIS/EDITORIA. UTOKYO 18

Hourly Population Density (7, June 2015) Sierra Leone

2015.08.26SHIBASAKI & SEKIMOTO LAB. CSIS/IIS/EDITORIA. UTOKYO 19

Hourly Population Density (7, June 2015) Freetown

SHIBASAKI & SEKIMOTO LAB. CSIS/IIS/EDITORIA. UTOKYO

20

Hourly Population Density (7, June 2015) Freetown

Further Analysis of People Flow; Freetown Bo

Suggestionsforfutureworks

• 2nd Pilotproject– Trackingtransboundary(international)movementofpeopleamongSierraLeone,GuineaandLiberia.

– ConnectingdatawithRandomizedIMEI.

• DevelopmentofReal-timeMonitoringandAnalysisSystemforSierraLeone,GuineaandLiberia– MNO’s:RandomizingCDR– RA’s:IntegratingRandomizedCDRandConductingAnalysistoMapReal-TimePeopleFlow

– ITU:TechnicalSupportandCapacityBuilding21

OriginalCDRdataprovision

Randomized/Anonymized CDRdata

Aggregating forPeopleflowstatistics

Additional analysisforEbolaControl

Reporting

ByMNO

ByMNO

ByMNOwithtechnicalassistanceofUT

ByUTunderthesupervisionofITU

ByUTunderthesupervisionofITU

ConductedinthepremiseofMNO

underthesupervisionofNationalRegulatoryCommissionandITU

Peopleflowstatistics

22

NationalRegulatoryCommission

Supervision

Peopleflowstatisticsdata

Appendix;DataManagementSchemeInthepremiseofMNO

全体の流れ

• 課題–エボラは⼈の移動にともなって動く–⼈の移動に関するデータが無い。

• ソリューション– CDR分析を⾏う。

• 効果、リスク（対応⽅法）–⽇常的に得られるデータで、安価にリアルタ

イムに⼈の移動データが得られる。–携帯電話事業者内でRandomizeし、統合解析

はRAが⾏うことで、プライバシーリスクは避けられる。