california uses more oil and far less coal than the entire u.s. · 2014-08-20 · california uses...

California uses more oil and far less coal than the entire U.S.Primary energy consumption by source in California and U.S., 2010

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

Petroleum36.9%

Natural Gas24.8%

Coal21.4%

Nuclear8.6%

Biomass4.4%

Hydroelectric2.6%

Other Renewables

1.3%

California Entire U.S.

Petroleum44.3%

Natural Gas29.8%

Coal0.7%

Nuclear4.3%

Biomass3.2%

Hydroelectric4.2%

Other Renewables

2.9%

Electricity Imports10.7%

CA uses more natural gas and renewables for electri city generation Electricity generation by source in California and U.S., Jan. – Aug. 2012

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

California Entire U.S.

Note: CA electricity from in-state generation only.

Coal0.8%

Natural Gas58.5%

Nuclear9.2%

Hydroelectric13.7%

Other Renewables

15.9%

Petroleum & Other1.8%

Coal36.4%

Natural Gas31.3%

Nuclear18.8%

Hydroelectric7.3%

Other Renewables

5.2%

Petroleum & Other1.0%

CA’s 33% RPS is advancing wind, solar PV and solar thermalProjects under the CA Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) by technology and status

Source: California Public Utilities Commission, as of 9/6/2012.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Wind Geothermal Biomass Solar PV Solar Thermal Other

Megawatts

RPS Projects Online

RPS Projects Approved and in Development

High electricity prices encourage distributed gener ation in CA California and U.S. retail electricity prices by customer segment, 2011

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Residential Commercial Industrial Average Retail

Cents per kWh

California U.S. Average

California ranks first in U.S. solar capacity, but U.S. lags globallyCumulative installed solar PV and CSP capacity, 2011

Sources: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Interstate Renewable Energy Council, European Photovoltaic Industry Association, International Renewable Energy Agency.

California42.7%

New Jersey12.5%

Arizona8.9%

Colorado4.4%

Nevada4.2%

Florida3.8%

New Mexico3.7%

Others20.0%

Germany35.7%

Italy18.1%

Spain8.0%

U.S.6.8%

Japan6.8%

China4.2%

France3.6%

Others16.8%

Solar by State Solar by Country

PV prices have dropped, but U.S. lags Germany in re ducing costsModule and system prices in U.S. and Germany

Sources: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Greentech Media.

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$/Watt

Average System Price

PV Module Price

U.S. Module and Average System Prices Residential System Prices, 2011

* Module price includes retail markup for residential installations.

$1.83 $1.82

$0.55 $0.33

$0.47$0.23

$3.34

$0.62

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

U.S. Germany

$ / Watt

Soft Balance ofSystems & Profit

Other Hardware

Inverter

Module *

California ranks third in U.S. wind capacity, China now leads globallyCumulative installed wind capacity, 2011

Texas22.2%

Iowa9.2%

California8.3%

Illinois5.8%Minnesota

5.8%Washington

5.5%

Oregon5.4%

Rest of U.S.37.8%

Sources: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Global Wind Energy Council.

Wind by State

China26.3%

U.S.19.7%

Germany12.2%

Spain9.1%

India6.7%

France2.9%

Italy2.8%

Rest of World20.3%

Wind by Country

Wind has grown significantly, but a major incentive expires after 2012Annual U.S. wind installations, 2000-2013E

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

Gigawatts

Sources: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Lower natural gas prices pressure renewables in ele ctricity market U.S. monthly natural gas wellhead prices

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

USD per thousand cubic feet (nominal)

High oil prices continue to encourage alternative f uel vehicles Global weekly oil prices

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

USD per barrel (nominal)

U.S. accounts for almost half of global biofuel pro ductionGlobal biofuel production, 2010

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

United States47.8%

Brazil28.4%

Germany3.3%

France3.0%

China2.3%

Argentina2.1%

Canada1.4%

Rest of World11.7% • U.S. production of biofuels has

increased over seven-fold since

2000

But cellulosic biofuels have been difficult to scal e commercially EIA projections of U.S. biofuel by source versus 2007 cellulosic target

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration.

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Quadrillion btu

EIA Projection: From corn and other starch

EIA Projection: From cellulose

2007 target for cellulosic biofuel

* Projections start in 2011.

Hybrid and electric vehicles are a small but growin g market segmentMarket share of hybrid and electric vehicles, 2011-2012

Sources: Kelley Blue Book, Autoblog.com, Argonne National Laboratory. Notes: * Excludes light trucks** Data for Western Europe through July 2012

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Plug-in Hybrid andElectric Vehicles

Hybrid, Plug-in Hybridand Electric Vehicles

2011

2012 (through August)

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

United States Western Europe China

2011

2012 (through August) **

PHEVs and EVs as % of Total Car Sales *Percentage of Total U.S. Car Sales *

Renewables deployment requires smart grid investmen tsComponents of smart grid infrastructure and management

Source: Electric Power Research Institute.

U.S. leads the world in clean energy investmentClean energy investments by leading countries

Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Pew Environmental Group.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

U.S. China Germany Italy India U.K. Japan Spain Brazil

USD billions

2010 2011

Smart grid, efficiency and storage lead in early-st age investmentsGlobal venture capital and private equity investments in clean energy, by technology

Sources: United Nations Environment Programme, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Includes only new investments, not buyouts.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Smart Grid,Efficiency

and Storage

Solar Biomass andWaste-to-

energy

Biofuels Wind Geothermal Small Hydro& Marine

USD billions

2010 2011

U.S. receives a majority of early-stage investments in renewablesGlobal venture capital and private equity investments in renewable energy, by region

Sources: United Nations Environment Programme, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Notes: Includes only new investments, not buyouts. Does not include smart grid, efficiency or storage investments.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

U.S. Europe America(excl. U.S.)

India China Middle Eastand Africa

ASOC (excl.China and

India)

USD billions

2010 2011

Power Output by Minute ESS State of Charge 30 Min. Moving Avg. Power Output

Example: Independent NJ solar generator (1,800 MW photovoltaic facility)

Grid-scale Li-ion Energy Storage – Grid Stability (P JM)

Variability in solar generation creates large swings in power output:

Energy storage can provide consequent frequency regulation required:

0

10

20

30

40

50

Sola

r P

ow

er O

utp

ut

(MW

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7,000

7,250

7,500

7,750

8,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

En

erg

y St

ora

ge C

har

ge (

kWh

)

Sola

r Po

wer

Ou

tpu

t (M

W)

11

IRR = 15 to 40% (dependent on integration costs)

Storage Acts Like a Prius Battery for the Grid

y = 9727.7x-0.579

R² = 0.9825

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

$-

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

He

at

Ra

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BT

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Fue

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$/k

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ub

Sp

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f $

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1/9

/20

12

Percent of Plant Power Rate (% of MW)

Fuel Cost per kWhHeat Rate (BTU [LHV] / kWh)Power (Heat Rate (BTU [LHV] / kWh))

Optimal Operating Zone Large Spinning Generators

(cost/usage rate)

Example: 16MW Natural Gas Combustion Turbine

Consumption & Generation

Distribution

Transmission

Generation

Non-hierarchical

model

Cloud intelligence

Wireless/Comm.

Sense &Control

Storage

Mobile Devices & UI

Embeddedsystems

Renewables - Solar, Wind, BioM, GeoT, Hydro

Technologies?

Smart Grid – A New paradigm for electricity flow

WINSmartGridTM

Cogeneration Feeder SubstationRoof Top Solar PVEnergy Storage

Alert Message

Control Center

Electric Vehicles, Battery Storage and Solar in UCL A Micro-grid

5%……

Rajit Gadh, UCLA

Infrastructure in UCLA – Dozen EVs plugged in to a S mart Charging Grid

Rajit Gadh, UCLA

Refrigerator, Oven, Dryer ACs, Heat Pumps, etc. TVs, Comps., Lighting, etc. Charge Mmgt, Billing, etc.

Smart Appliance Controls HVAC Controls Small Load Controls PHEV/EV Management

UTILITY

Smart Meter Gateway

Private Fixed Networks, WAN/LAN

Protocols

Insteon

HomePlug

Bluetooth

Z-Wave

ZigBee

6loWPAN

…Wire

d &

Wire

less

Demand Response in UCLA Grid: Home and Business Aut omation Network

Rajit Gadh, UCLA

Developing a Smart Grid Infrastructure requires collaboration from utilities, government, regulators, industry, standards bodies, academia.

Rajit Gadh, UCLA

2011 RPS Solicitation Results

• 6 percent of bids submitted in the 2011 RPS Solicitation were shortlisted by the three regulated investor-owned utilities.

• The average bid price for all technology types in the 2011 RPS Solicitation was approximately 30 percent lowerthan the average bid price in the 2009 Solicitation.

• As of now the target for 2020 RPS solicitation has been fully met and utilities are on the right track to meet and exceed the 2020 goal.

Contracted for RPS Projects Online and In Development

Forecast Compliance Position, Not Risk Adjusted

California Public Utilities Commission, May 2012For planning purposes, the Commission assumes that less than 100% of contracted projects will achieve commercial operation

Electric Program Investment Charge (D. 12-05-037)• Consolidated CEC’s Emerging Renewables Program (small wind and fuel cells) into SGIP• Further program modifications may be necessary to address barriers for small wind participation in SGIP.

Energy Storage• The Commission is considering or incentivized energy storage in multiple proceedings, including R.10-12-007, and R.10-05-004, and A.11-03-001• CAISO is also considering distributed storage in their ancillary services market

Ongoing Policy Issues 2012