border management and development: remittance and migration linkages
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Border management and development: Remittance and
migration linkages
Alessandra BraviBen Slay
Senior Economist OfficeUNDP Bratislava Regional Center
http://europeandcis.undp.org/senioreconomist
Odessa19 July 2011
Presentation objectives
• Briefly explore linkages between border management, development, migration, and remittances
• Provide a short overview of key trends, issues in remittances, migration in Europe and Central Asia
• Present services, support UNDP regional senior economist’s office can offer in these areas
Broader context: Border management and development
Border management
(hard security)
Migration and remittances (economic development --
poverty practice, senior economist office)
Anti-corruption (public
administration reform -- democratic governance practice)
Security sector reform (human rights --
democratic governance practice)
Aid for trade (trade facilitation, private
sector/local economic development -- poverty
practice)
Why do people move?
• Mobility vs international migration: when borders matter
• Colonial expansion: need for land, fiscal incentives
• Forced movements: wars, resettlements, natural disasters
• Looking for better opportunities: migrant workers
Top 10 destination countries of Eastern Europe and Central AsiaStock of migrants by destination country 2000, 2005 and 2010( absolute numbers in thousands)
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Serbia
Moldova
Armenia
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan
12,270
5,258
3,079
1,176
1,090
525
408
324
284
264
12,080
5,391
2,974
1,268
1,107
675
440
493
306
255
11,892
5,527
2,871
1,367
1,124
857
474
574
330
348
Stock of Migrants
200020052010
BOMCA
EUBAM
SCIBM
Source: DESA, UN Migration Statistics.
22 million migrants in Eastern Europe + CIS
…for the same countries Stock of migrants by destination country 2000, 2005 and 2010( in % of total population)
Source: DESA, UN Migration Statistics.
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Serbia
Moldova
Armenia
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan
8.7
11.6
19.5
4.2
11.4
5.3
11.4
10.5
4
3
8.4
11.5
19.6
4.8
11.3
6.8
11.7
16.1
4.7
3
8.1
11.3
19.2
5.5
11.2
7.9
11.6
18.7
5.4
4.3
Stock of Migrantsas % of total population
200020052010
Top 10 destination countries of Eastern Europe and Central AsiaStock of migrants by destination country 2000, 2005 and 2010( in % of total population)
Source: DESA, UN Migration Statistics.
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Moldova
Belarus
Armenia
Russian Federation
Montenegro
Macedonia, FYR
Serbia
Uzbekistan
19.5
11.6
11.4
11.4
10.5
8.7
6.8
6.3
5.3
4.2
19.6
11.5
11.7
11.3
16.1
8.4
8.7
5.9
6.8
4.8
19.2
11.3
11.6
11.2
18.7
8.1
6.2
7.9
5.5
Stock of Migrants as % of total population
200020052010
The movement of people is often accompanied by movement of financial flows in the opposite
direction
Global remittance inflows 2000-2010e (in billions usd)
Source: IMF Balance of Payment Report Yearbook 2010.
YOY growth rates (%)
440 bln $
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e0
100
200
300
400
500
18%21%
16%
16%
21%
15% -6% 5%
16%
14%4%
Regional remittance inflows CEE&CIS 2000-2010e (in billions usd)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20
40
60
1% 6% 16%54%
39%22%
-21% 1%32%
13%
7%
Source: IMF Balance of Payment Report Yearbook 2010.
YOY growth rates (%)
52 bln $
Remittance outflows EU(in billions usd)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
40
80
120Remittance outflows intra EU Total remittance outflows
66% 64% 62% 60% 60%
66%
Source: EUROSTAT, exchange rate annual average OANDA.
59 bln $
99 bln $
Russia: remittance outflows 2002-2010
(in billions usd)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4
4
12
20
28
To CIS countries Total outflow
63% 63% 75% 74% 81% 85% 86% 84% 85%
20 bln $
17 bln $
Source: Russia Central Bank, quarterly data up to QI 2011@ senior economist vulnerability database
Kazakhstan: remittance outflows 2003-2010 (in billions usd)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
1
2
3
4
5
78%87%
55%
56%
42%
-18%-15% 0.4%
YOY growth rates (%) 3 bln $
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan, quarterly data up to QIV 2010@ senior economist vulnerability database
Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2007-2010, Tajikistan
2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6Remittance inflows in billions usd GDP in billions usd
52% 37% 41%
Source: UNDP Tajikistan-IMF, monthly data up to May 2011@ senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011
48%
Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2005-2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8 Remittance inflows in billions usd
GDP in billions usd
Source: National Bank of Moldova (Balance of Payment), quarterly data up to QIV 2010@ the senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011
31% 35% 34% 31% 22% 23%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
50
100
150
200
0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 3.1% 4.3% 4.1%
Moldova Ukraine
Source: National Bank of Ukraine (Balance of Payment), quarterly data up to QIV 2010@ senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011
Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2006-2010
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2
2
6
10
14
Remittance inflows in millions usdGDP in billions usd
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20
40
60Azerbaijan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2
2
6
10
14
7% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Armenia Georgia
19% 19% 19% 18% 17%
4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Source: IFAD Remittance Gateway for Armenia and Georgia, IMF BoP statistics for Azerbaijan.GDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011
Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2005-2010, Kyrgyzstan
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6Remittance inflows in billions usd GDP in billions usd
17%18%
22% 21%27%
Source: National Bank of Kyrgyzstan (Balance of Payment), monthly data up to May 2011@ senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011
12%
National, sub-national data on changes in remittances into—and migration from—
Kyrgyzstan in 2010
Remittances -- national
Numbers of migrants --
national
Numbers of migrants --
Jalalabad oblast
Numbers of migrants -- Osh
oblast
Numbers of migrants -- Osh
city
29%63%
101% 110%
316%
Sources: State Statistical Committee, National Bank; UNDP calculations.
Areas of ethnic conflict in May-June 2010
What can we offer?
UNDP Senior Economist office:• Support country office on migration-
remittance related projects• Data • Analysis and Fast Facts• Experts on the move• D&T publicationwww.developmentandtransition.net
• Regional research bulletin, Europe and Central Asia
• Provides UN, independent views on development, transition, policy issues
• Disseminates lessons of successful UN projects
• Distributed to:– All UNDP staff in Europe,
Central Asia region– 4000 external subscribers
• This issue is available athttp://www.developmentandtransition.net/Arkhiv.71+M54a708de802.0.html
• Next issue (July 2011): Integrated local development
Please tell us what we can do more or better….
Send us an email @ alessandra.bravi@undp.org
ben.slay@undp.org
Leave a comment on our research @ http://europeandcis.undp.org/senioreconomist
Comment on our Blog Posts @http://europeandcis.undp.org/blog
Send us your research, blog post, ideas @alessandra.bravi@undp.org
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