biofuels: lca and the cdm - how you make it matters - quest workshop – sustainable forestry &...
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Biofuels: LCA and the CDM- how you make it matters -
QUEST Workshop – Sustainable Forestry & Climate Mitigation
Bristol University25th and 26th July 2005
Dr Jeremy Woods (ICEPT) & Gareth Brown (Themba Technology Ltd.)E-mail: jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.ukTel: +44 (0)20 7594 7315
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 2
Overview
• Background: policy and science– context: UK Transport Sector
• System Boundaries– ~ baselines
• Coping with uncertainty– Whole Chain– Farm GHG emissions & Energy inputs
• Conclusions – Next steps?
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 3
Key References:
• UK-LCVP Consensus report (Rickeard et al, 2004: – ExxonMobil / British Sugar / Imperial College / North
Energy / CONCAWE/JRC rpt
• RTFs: Woods & Bauen (2003) and Mortimer et al (2003, 2004)…
• CSL Energy Crop – environmental footprint. (Turley et al, 2005)
• UK Transport Emissions Projections: DTI – Energy Paper 68 (in DfT, 2003)
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 4
UK Transport Sector Emissions Projections - High Energy Prices
UK Emissions Projections: 1990 to 2020'CH' Scenarion (Central GDP, High Energy Prices)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
MtC
Power Stations
Refineries
Residential
Services
Industry
Road Transport
Off-road
Other transport
Road Transport
Source: UK DTI. Energy Paper E98. 2002
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 5
Transport Emissions- Relentless Rise?
UK Emissions Share by Sector: 1990
35%
3%
13%5%
22%
19%
1%
2%
Power Stations
Refineries
Residential
Services
Industry
Road Transport
Off-road
Other transport
UK Emissions Share by Sector: 2010
25%
4%
15%
7%
21%
25%
1%
2%
Total: 159.3 MtC Total: 148.6 MtC
29.8 MtC36.9 MtC
20% reduction from 1990 would imply 2010 transport sector emissions of 24 MtC
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 6
Overview
• Background: policy and science– context: UK Transport Sector
• System Boundaries– ~ baselines
• Coping with uncertainty– Whole Chain– Farm GHG emissions & Energy inputs
• Conclusions – Next steps?
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 7
Scope• Based on Life-cycle environmental impacts
of wheat fermentation-based ethanol production and use in the UK.
• Base LCA ethanol production parameters on Rickeard et al. (2005),– Draw-up system models and derive system
boundaries for the evaluation– Evaluate the potential GHG and energy inputs
• Work started in September 2004
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ATMOSPHERIC CO2ATMOSPHERIC CO2
Ethanol
CO2-Capture by Photosynthesise.g. Crop Growth
End Usee.g. combustion in vehicles
Carbon Capture & Sequestration
CO2
Gas Markets
Leakage?
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 9
Rape Biodiesel Process Flow Chart
Cultivation: 0.0267 ha
0.00015 kg seed
Transport, Drying & Storage
85.5 kg raw harvested rape seed 83.8
kg
Str
aw
15%
moi
stur
e
1.2
GJ
80.2 kg dried rape seed
267 m2 land required
0.51 GJ energy inputs
1.00 GJ energy outputs
Energy Ratio = 1.96
Includes co-product credits
28 kg CO2 emissions
45 kg GHG emissions
£ 32.6 per GJ RME
£26.75 / GJRME incl. Co-products
Extraction
26.6 kg crude rape oil
Refining
26.0 kg refined rape oil
Esterification
1GJ biodiesel (24.7 kg)
53.5
kg
Rap
e M
eal
X%
moi
stur
e
X M
J
2.5
kg
Gly
cerin
e
X M
J
Delivery to Vehicle
Key Parameters
per GJ biodiesel
Based on Mortimer et al. 2002
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Assurance Pyramid
Principles
International Standard
Locally Applied Standard
Criteria
Indicators
MEASURE-MENTS
PRECISIONCO
NSEN
SUS
Adapted from: Jim Smith, BSI Professional Standards Services (his presentation to LCVP on 18Feb05)
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 11
Dealing with Uncertainty• N2O emissions from agriculture
• CH4 emissions from agriculture
• Land-use change:– Changes in Biomass Stock (deforestation)– Changes in soil carbon (e.g. grassland)
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 12
Land-use change: deforestation
‘… where deforestation has occurred, one-off emissions in the range of 200 to 1000 t CO2 /hectare associated with the combustion and/or rapid decomposition of above-ground biomass[1] will negate any GHG benefits from the production of biofuels for a period of at least 50 years.’
[1] IPCC Good Practice Guidelines for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 13
Land-use change: UK agriculture‘… According to DETR (1997), soils in England, Wales and Scotland
contain some 21.78 billion tonnes of carbon, of which 16.4 GtC is in Scottish peat uplands[1], leaving 5.4BtC (19.8 Gt CO2) in the soil of the remaining UK land where agriculture is the primary land use. Most of this is contained in grasslands. Arable soils in the UK contain 592 MtC (2.17GtCO2; Smith et al).’
According to Edwards,R. (JRC, 2004):‘Grassland has 49 to 54 tonnes/ha higher soil C (180 to 198
tCO2/ha) content than a wheat-field with straw ploughed back.’
[1] Soil Assoc. (2005) quoting: Indicators of Sustainable Development in the UK, DETR, 1997.
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 14
N2O & CH4 emissions
‘Variability arises from the dependence on the processes that form them, such as denitrification and nitrification and anaerobic decay, on the prevailing physical, climatic and environmental conditions. In the case of nitrous oxide, emissions are also dependant upon the amount of N fertiliser addition to the land[1]’
[1] ‘IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001’, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 15
N2O emissions
JRC - UK FIGURES WHEATFERTILIZED GRASSLAND
wheat - grass
grass/ wheat
Best estimate kg N2O per ha per year 4.361 1.566 2.795 0.36min (80% confidence) 3.190 1.540 1.650 0.48
max 5.707 1.591 4.116 0.28
CSL (Turley,D.) quoting: Winter Wheat Spring Barley Potatoes Grazed Grassland Cut GrasslandSmith et al. 1998 kg N2O/ha.yr 0.30 0.80 1.35 1.90 8.00 1.50 3.00
Russer et al. Wheat Maize Potatoes Set-aside; unfert perennial grasses3.64 2.41 6.93 0.29
Note:L. Brown et. al. Atmospheric Environment 36 (2002) 917-928]
confirms modelling at JRC, that the N2O release during fallow setaside amounts to about 30% of the release from wheat farming. However, their N2O release figures for wheat in UK is about 1.3 kgN2O/ha.yr, compared with 4.36 from the rather similar JRC
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 16
On Farm GHG Emissions
kgCO2eq/ha - No straw removal
11% 1%
1%
40%
1%
5%
41%
Diesel for Cultivation
K fertiliser
P fertiliser
N fertiliser
Pesticides
Seed Material
N2O emissions
kgCO2eq/ha - With straw removal
11% 2%
1%
40%
1%
4%
41%
Diesel for Cultivation
K fertiliser
P fertiliser
N fertiliser
Pesticides
Seed Material
N2O emissions
• N2O emissions set at JRC/LCVP levels:• No Straw Removal: 4.36 kg N2O/ha.yr• With Straw Removal: 5.96 kg N2O/ha.yr
Total On Farm GHG emissions:3119 kgCO2eq/ha.yr
Total On Farm GHG emissions:4207 kgCO2eq/ha.yr
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 17
On Farm GHG Emissions
kgCO2eq/ha - No straw removal
11% 1%
1%
40%
1%
5%
41%
Diesel for Cultivation
K fertiliser
P fertiliser
N fertiliser
Pesticides
Seed Material
N2O emissions
kgCO2eq/ha - No straw removal
16%
1%
1%
57%
1%
7%
17%
Diesel for Cultivation
K fertiliser
P fertiliser
N fertiliser
Pesticides
Seed Material
N2O emissions
Total On Farm GHG emissions:2214 kgCO2eq/ha.yr
Total On Farm GHG emissions:3119 kgCO2eq/ha.yr
• N2O emissions set at:• JRC/LCVP: 4.36 kg N2O/ha.yr • Brown et al.: 1.30 kg N2O/ha.yr
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 18
Farm level calculation tool: inputs
Wheat production inputsCase LCVP -
Reference Values
Straw ploughed
back
All straw removed
Diesel for cultivationConsumption litres/ha 140.5 140 170Agrochemicals and fertilizersUsage kg/ha K fertilizer (as K) 46 46 164 P fertilizer (as P) 41 41 53 N fertilizer (as N) 185 185 253 Pesticides (as active ingredient) 2 4.37 5 Seed material 185 185 185N2O Emissions kg/ha 4.36 4.36 5.96
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 19
Farm level calculation tool: outputs
Gp/ha Kg CO2eq/ha Gp/ha Kg CO2eq/haDiesel for Cultivation 4.730 356.6 6.071 450.2K fertiliser 0.428 21.0 1.523 74.8P fertiliser 0.648 29.1 0.842 37.8N fertiliser 7.511 1238.0 10.271 1693.0Pesticides 1.198 23.6 1.371 27.0Seed Material 2.498 160.4 2.498 160.4N2O emissions 1290.6 1764.2Total Farm 17 3119 23 4207Rest of Chain 50.466 3024.4 52.563 411.0% Total Chain 25% 51% 30% 91%
Straw ploughed back All straw removed
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 20
Overview
• Background: scientific basis for action
• Scope of the study– System boundaries
• Key study findings– GHG and Energy Balances– Carbon saving costs for sequestration
• Conclusions & realism
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 21
Potential Impacts for Ethanol-based CO2 Capture
GHG Emissions GHG Emissions
WTT*** WTT***
Kg CO2eq / GJ
EtOH g CO2eq / km % of petrol Kg CO2eq / GJ EtOH
g CO2eq /
km % of petrol
26.3 53 27.4% -1.77 -4 -2.1%22.9 46 23.8% -5.1 -10 -6.1%
26.3 78 40.9% -1.77 -4 -2.1%22.9 73 38.1% -5.1 -10 -6.1%
26.3 165 86.1% -1.77 -4 -2.1%22.9 165 85.9% -5.1 -10 -6.1%
Notes: * - BECS (BioEnergy with Carbon Sequestration)** - 2 MJ per km = 39 MPG petrol*** - WTT 'Well (or field) to Tank' - WTW 'Well (or field) to Wheel'.
Straw + Boiler
E100 Without BECS*
E85 Without BECS
Natural Gas Boiler + Heat RecoveryStraw + Boiler
E100 With BECSENERGY BASISEnergy Supply Model for fermentation & distillation plant
Natural Gas Boiler + Heat RecoveryStraw + Boiler
E85 With BECSNatural Gas Boiler + Heat Recovery
2 MJ per km (WTW***)2 MJ per km (WTW***)
E10 Without BECS E85 With BECS
Car Performance Indicators35.00 MPG 40.00 MPG 2.000 MJ/km
9.25 M/lpetrol 10.57 M/lpetrol 38.76 MPG0.067 lpetrol/km 0.059 lpetrol/km 10.24 M/lpetrol2.215 MJ/km 1.938 MJ/km 0.061 lpetrol/km
160 gCO2 per km 140 gCO2 per km 144 gCO2 per km192 gCO2eq per km 168 gCO2eq per km 173 gCO2eq per km
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 22
Policy Options
• Government-based– E.g. UK RTFO
• International– E.g. International BioEnergy Programme (IBEP)
• Assurance and Certification
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 23
UK – RTFO (Possible Mechanism Overview) 15/04/2004
UK BIOFUEL OBLIGATION MODELObligationPump Effect PPl £0.057
UK ProducerObligation £27.2 Existing Crop Balance (000te) Wheat RapeFund Millions Agricultural Inputs Exports 3404 179
Ethanol Bio Diesel1438 68
m litres m litresUK "Transport Fuel Pool" Duty £0.49 Premium
Market Mil Litres £0.10 273 M Lit Set Aside plus 0.5M HaGasoline 27519 Biofuel Supply 0.5M Ha UnusedDiesel 20150 Bioethanol £0.38 each
Biodiesel £0.38 (000te)TaxOffice Wheat or Rape
Obligation 2000 8751.0% Duty Rebate Buyout Price Ethanol m litres Bio Diesel
545 M Lit £0.20 £0.10 845 331
Importer Refiner
Gasoline £0.12Diesel £0.16
Bioethanol £0.26Biodiesel £0.31 Comparitive Cost of meeting Obligation
Product Product Duty Obligation TotalGasoline £0.12 £0.49 0.10 £0.71Imports-E £0.26 £0.29 0.10 £0.65
Import Value UK Ethanol £0.38 £0.29 -0.10 £0.57UK £0.06Germany -£0.19 Diesel £0.16 £0.49 0.10 £0.75
Duty "Cost" Imports-BD £0.31 £0.29 0.10 £0.70Energy £109 (£M) UK Biodiesel £0.38 £0.29 -0.10 £0.57Equivalence 0.8
Innovation
Non-CO2 emissions
Indoor air pollution
Access to affordable energy
Carbon substitution
Economic development
Industry Administration
Development costs
Watershed management
Biomass
Carbon seqestration
Soil protection
Farmers associations
Land-use administration
Agriculture/Forestry Administration
Soil Degradation
Land Competition
Pesticide & Nutrient Leaching
SME
Households
Energy transmission, transportation & sale
Industry
Energy Administration
Science
International Organisations
NGOs
Transaction costs
Costs
Actors
Benefits
Resources Conversion & Products End-use
Farm workers, Landless
Employment
Export & Competition
Environment Administration
Source: International Bioenergy Programme- 2005; Jurgens, I. (FAO)
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 25
BioEnergy ActionThrough International Consensus:
BuildingNational and Regional Biomass Task Forces
Pillar I
Bioenergy Information
System
Pillar II
Mobilising Bioenergy
FAO-Bioenergy
Task 7
Information
Task 1
Potentials
Task 2
Sustainability
Task 3
i-BIS Portal
Task 4
Capacity & Stakeholders
Task 5
Wood EnergyAgro EnergyCo-Products
Partnerships
Task 6
International BioEnergy Programme (I-BEP)
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 26
Conclusions
• Uncertainty dominates?• Biomass is not carbon neutral
– Particularly biofuels
• Co-product allocation / poly-generation– How to allocate GHG emissions between multiple
outputs?
• Highly heterogeneous variables e.g. N2O• Can remote sensing and better GIS succeed?
– What resolution?
• Is Assurance and Certification THE answer?
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 27
Conclusions – Final
• Implications for CDM?
• Future technologies – e.g. lignocellulosics– Do we need them?
• What can QUEST do?
21-Jul-05 jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk 28
I THANK YOU!China-17 September 2004
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