b_griffnprecision farming: adoption, profitability, and making better use of data

PRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA

T.W. Griffin, J. Lowenberg-DeBoer, D.M. Lambert, and J. PeoneSite Specific Management Center - Purdue University

T. Payne and S.G. DaberkowUSDA-ERS

3 part presentation

1) Adoption trends in the US and Worldwide

2) Review of PA profitability literature

3) Making better use of yield monitor data

Adoption Trends

• Worldwide network of collaborators• USDA ARMS study• PA Services Dealership Survey

– Whipker and Akridge, 2004

Combine Yield Monitors

Yield Monitor Grain Flow Sensor

Yield Map

Higher yields

Lower yields

Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Monitors

0

10

20

30

40

% o

f pla

nted

acr

es cornsoybeanwheancotton

Approximately 30,000 in 2000 45,000 in 2003

Source: before 1995 MangoldAfter 1995 USDA ARMS

Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Mapping Yield Monitor plus a GPS

0

5

10

15

20

% o

f pla

nted

acr

es

cornsoybeancotton

Source: USDA ARMS

European Yield Monitor Use

• Germany 4250 212 2003• United Kingdom 400 43 2000• Denmark 400 100 2000• Sweden 150 48 2000• France 50 2 2000• Holland 6 11 2000• Belgium 6 7 2000• Spain 5 0 2003• Portugal 4 3 2003

Per million acresTotal Year

Latin American Yield Monitor Use

• Argentina 1000 17 2003• Brazil 100 1 2002• Chile 12 8 2000• Uruguay 4 3 2000

Total Per million acres Year

0

50

100

150

200

250yi

eld

mon

itors

Germany '03

US '03US '00 Denmark '00 Sweden '00UK '00Argentina '03 Holland '00

Yield monitors by country per million acres

Soil Mapping Adoption

05

10152025

% o

f pla

nted

acr

es

Corn Soybean Wheat Cotton

Source: USDA ARMS

Remote Sensing Adoption

0

5

10

15%

of p

lant

ed a

cres

19992000

20012002

Corn Soybean Wheat

Source: USDA ARMS

Redefined question in 2002

Adoption of VRT-Fertilizer

0

5

10

15

20%

of p

lant

ed a

cres

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Corn Soybean Wheat CottonSource: USDA ARMS

Adoption of VRT in Corn

0

5

10

15

20%

of p

lant

ed a

cres

1998 1999 2000 2001

Fertilizer Seed Pesticide

Source: USDA ARMS

Adoption of VRT in Soybean

0

5

10

15

20%

of p

lant

ed a

cres

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Fertilizer Seed Pesticide

Source: USDA ARMS

Adoption of VRT in Cotton

0

5

10

15

20%

of p

lant

ed a

cres

1998 1999 2000

Fertilizer Seed Pesticide

Source: USDA ARMS

VRT Offered by Ag Retailers

• 67% of service providers offer VRT• 40% offer single-nutrient VRT

– Still less than 50% by 2006

• 23% offer multi-nutrient VRT in 2004– 28% of providers expect to offer by 2006

• <10% offer VRT - seedingSource: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

Service Providers Offering VRT fertilizer, lime, and pesticides

0

25

50

75

100

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

% o

f dea

lers

Multi Single Total

Source: Whipker and Akridge

VRT-Fertilizer by Region

0

10

20

30

40

50%

of d

eale

rs

Midwest Other states

Manual VR Single-nutrient Multi-nutrient

Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

GPS Lightbars

Purdue Davis Farm

GPS Lightbar Guidance used by Service Providers

• 61% offer applications with GPS guidance– 72% in Midwest

– 39% in other states 020406080

100

% o

f dea

lers

19992000

20012002

20032004

Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

GPS Auto-Guidance

• 5.3% of dealers use GPS auto-guidance– 4.2% in Midwest and 7.4% in other states

– Regional difference?

Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

On-the-go Sensors

• Soil Dr – been around the longest• Greenseeker• Norsk Hydro N-sensor

– ~320 total units– ~300 in Europe

Sensors for Mapping

• Soil pH sensor available– Veris Mobile Sensor Platform >5 sold– K sensor being developed– 7.8% of dealers offer soil EC mapping*

*Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

Fundamental Constraints of Adoption

• Lack of research support• Human capital costs• Lack of education and training

Fundamental Constraints of Adoption

• Lack of support and consulting• High opportunity cost of management time• Information-intensive / embodied knowledge

“Information-intensive” vs. “Embodied knowledge”

Information-intensive• Field level data to

make decisions• Requires additional

data and skill• VRT and precision

agriculture• IPM

Embodied knowledge• Information purchased

in the form of an input• Requires minimal

additional data/skill• Hybrid corn• Round-up Ready or Bt

Fundamental Incentives of Adoption

• Technology costs are declining• Incorporation of technology in society

– GPS in cars and boats

• Increased comfort level with technology– USDA FSA and NRCS using GIS with farmers

Fundamental Incentives of AdoptionAutomating Record Keeping • Identity tracking of commodities• Pesticide record keeping • Environmental regulations – monitor input use

– May lead into cost sharing for adoption

Fundamental Incentives of AdoptionAuto-guidance systems• Increase farm size with same equipment set

– Reduce overlap, expand work day, increase speed

• Match equipment operations (6, 8, 12 row)• Controlled trafficking• Strip till

Economies of Scale in Data Analysis

• Skill to analyze 2000 ac works for 20,000 ac• Potential for PA consulting - outsourcing• Complementary goods and services

Part 2: PA Profitability Review• Standalone VRT fertilizer often does not

cover costs– Swinton and Lowenberg-DeBoer (1998)

• In 2000, 63% of studies showed profits, but budget methods not standardized– Lambert and Lowenberg-DeBoer (2000)

• Economics of precision agriculture are site-specific

Profitability Studies to Date

• Reviewed 234 articles• 210 reported some kind of benefit or loss• Of those, 68% reported positive benefits• 52% of studies involved an economist

Articles by Technology

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% o

f art

icle

s

VRT generalVRT - NVRT - GPSVRT - seedVRT - pestVRT - P,KVRT- YMVRT - limeSoil sensing

Articles by Crop

05

10152025303540

Corn

Wheat

Mixed

Corn/SoybeanPotatoSoybeanCorn/CottonSoybean/corn/rice

Sorghum/Millet

Cotton

% o

f art

icle

s % of total

% reporting positive benefits

Part 3: Better Use of Data

• Many farmers collecting data– 10 + years and several megabytes

• Question remains: what to do with the data?• No one has all the answers• Is data valuable enough to justify processing?

Better Use of Data

• Better farm-level experimental designs• Spatial statistical methods• More reliable local information

Better Experimental Designs

• Small plot designs developed 70 years ago– Blocking and replications neutralize variability

• Precision agriculture measures variability• Spatial statistics can model variability

Better Experimental Designs

• Opportunity for fewer replication large blocks• Types of comparisons farmer tend to conduct• Experimental designs being tested in 4 states• Farmer feedback crucial to evaluation

64 acre field

Satellite image taken in July

Red outline is field boundary

Planned comparisondesign3 varieties

Single-blocknon-replicated

Note: soil typesare outlined in blue

Each variety isrepresented on each major soiltype/zone

Once designs aredecided upon in off-season,implementationis simple at planting time

Treatments can be changed at normal planterrefilling times

Soybean harvestcan be conductedat any angle to planter pass

Yield Monitor Data Analysis

• Yield monitor data analysis service pilot project• 37th Annual Top Farmer Crop Workshop

– July 18-21, 2004

• More reliable results gained

http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/topfarmer

Summary

• Adoption has been slow and uneven• Economics well documented – many studies• Information-intensive vs. embodied knowledge ag• Need for analysis services to overcome constraints

Role of Extension Farm Management

• Third party evaluation desperately needed– Firm understanding of precision technologies

• Help farmers develop own recommendations instead of supplying answer– On-farm comparisons

Role of Extension Farm Management

• Assist farmers and ag businesses in understanding economics of information

Barriers to adoption are an opportunity for extension to be more relevant

Terry Griffintwgriffi@purdue.edu765.494.4257

Site-Specific Management CenterPurdue Universityhttp://www.purdue.edu/ssmc