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Bangladeshs Power Sector: InvestmentOpportunities
1
March 01 , 2011
London
Brig. Gen. (Rtd.) Muhammad Enamul Haq, MPState Minister, Power, Energy & Mineral Resources
Power Summit 2011
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Bangladesh at a Glance
The Country : The Peoples Republic ofBangladesh
Capital : Dhaka
Area : 147,570 Sq. Km. Population : 146 Million
Per Capita Income : US $ 751 (FY 2010)
GDP Growth Rate : Around 6 % (last 7 years)
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Bangladeshs Power Sector at a Glance (FY 2010)
Electricity Growth : 10 % in FY-2010 (Av. 7 % since 1990)
Generation Capacity : 5936 MW (January 31, 2011)
Total Consumers : 12 Million
Transmission Lines : 8,500 km Distribution Lines : 2,70,000 km
Per Capita Generation : 236 kWh (incl. Captive)
Access to Electricity : 48.5 %
3
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Present Structure of Power SectorApex Institution
Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources (MPEMR)
RegulatorBangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC)
Generation Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) Ashuganj Power Station Company Ltd. (APSCL)
Electricity Generation Company of Bangladesh (EGCB) North West Power Generation Company Ltd. (NWPGCL)Independent Power Producers (IPPs)
Transmission Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Ltd (PGCB)
Distribution Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) Dhaka Power Distribution Company (DPDC) Dhaka Electric Supply Company Ltd (DESCO) West Zone Power Distribution Company (WZPDC)
Rural Electrification Board (REB) through Rural Co-operatives
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Present Power
Generation
Scenario
5
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Present Generation Capacity (January, 2011)
Public Sector
SL. Generation Capacity (MW)
1. BPDB 2620
2. APSCL 606
3. EGCB 255
Subtotal 3481 (59 %)
Private Sector1. IPPs 1271
2. SIPPs (BPDB) 99
3. SIPPs (REB) 226
4. 15 YR. Rental 168
5. 3/5 YR. Rental 691Subtotal 2455(41 %)
Total 5936
Considering 15-20 % Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation
Capacity is in the range of 4600 5000 MW without fuel constraint
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Power Generation Capacity in Private Sector
Sl.
No.
Name of Power Station Unit Type Commissioning
date
(Year)
Type of
Fuel
Generation
Capacity
(MW)
1 Haripur Power Ltd. CC 2001 Gas 235
2 Meghnaghat Power Ltd. CC 2002 Gas 450
3 NEPC ReciprocatingEngine
1999 Gas 110
4 RPCL CC 2000 Gas 175
5 KPCL BMPP ReciprocatingEngine
1998 F. Oil 106
6 WESTMONT (WPL) CT 1999 Gas 70
7 SIPP (13 Plant) CT 2007-2009 Gas 325
8 Rental -15 Years (4 Plant) ReciprocatingEngine
2008-2009 Gas 168
9 Rental -3/5 Years (10 Plant) ReciprocatingEngine
2008-2010 F. Oil 691
TOTAL (33 operators) 2,455
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Demand Supply Situation
Generation: 4000 4600 MW (Capacity- 5936 MW)
Highest so far: 4699 MW( 20 August 2010)
Gas shortage causes 500 - 700 MW less Power Generation
Peak Demand: 6000 MW(with DSM)
Load shedding up to 1500 MW during hot summer days
Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained
economic growth
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FO
3.00%
Diesel
1.76%
Hydro
2.50%Coal
3.53%
Gas
89.21%
Energy Generation(FY10): 29,247 Million Unit
Energy Generation by Fuel Type in FY 2010
Energy Growth in FY10 is about 10 %
High Dependence on Gas
9
Energy Generation (July-Dec. 10): 14,451 Million Unit
Hydro4.23%
Natural Gas84.02%
Furnace Oil4.42%
Diesel5.15%
Coal2.19%
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Priority area
Comprehensive and integrated plan for power generation,transmission and distribution sub sectors
Fuel diversity and sustainable supply of fuels
Private sector participation in power generation
Harnessing renewable energy sources
Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy Efficiencyimprovement program
Rationalize power tariff and life line tariff Cross Boarder Power Trade
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Generation
Expansion Plan andImplementation
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Primary Fuel Supply Scenario
Gas:
- No significant gas discovery in recent years
- Present gas reserve is depleting due to increasing demand
- Present gas exploration initiatives may change the scenario
LNG: Necessary to ensure secure and reliable gas supply
Coal:Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load
Nuclear: Safe technology; No pollution; Expected to be future
Base Load option Oil:Volatile market; High price; For peaking duty
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Generation Expansion Plan
Immediate:6 -12 Months- Rental Plants (liquid fuel)
Short term:18 - 24 Months- Peaking Plants (liquid fuel)
Medium term:3 - 5 years
- Combined Cycle Plants (Gas or dual fuel)- Peaking Plant (Gas or dual fuel)- Coal fired steam plants
` - LNG based Combined Cycle Plants
Long term:beyond 5 years- Domestic/Imported Coal Power Plant
- Gas/Oil based Peaking Plant - Nuclear Power Plant - Renewable Energy
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14141414
Power Generation Projects up to 2016
Calendar Year Wise Projects Completion (From 2010 to 2016)
YEAR2010(MW)
Commissioned
2011(MW)
2012(MW)
2013(MW)
2014(MW)
2015(MW)
2016(MW)
TOTAL(MW)
Public 255 851 838 1040 1270 450 1500 6204
Private 520 1343 1319 1134 1053 1900 1300 8569
Total 775 2194 2157 2174 2323 2350 2800 14,773
Public Sector : 6204 MW (comm:255 MW, u/c: 1414 MW, Tender: 1420 MW); (42%) Private Sector : 8569 MW (comm:520 MW,u/c: 1343 MW, Tender: 2506 MW); (58%)
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Successful Contract Signed since Jan 2009
Sl.No.
Description No. ofProjects
Capacity
(MW)
01. Private Sector(Rental)
19 1753
02. Public Sector 15 1564
Total 34 3317
Out of 3317 MW,410 MW(4 Project) already commissioned.
30 Projects with capacity2907MW areunder construction.
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Projects Under Construction
Sl.No.
Description No. ofProjects
Capacity
(MW)
01. Private Sector(Rental) 15 1343
02. Public Sector 15 1564
Total 30 2,907
Details u/c
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Projects Under Tendering Process:Contract within Next 6 Months
Sl.No.
Description No. ofProjects
Capacity
(MW)
01. Private Sector(IPPs)
26 3106
02. Public Sector 5 1060
Total 31 4166
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1818
Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
FY 2011
(July-Dec)
FY 2011
(Jan-June)
FY 2012
(July-Dec)
FY 2012
(Jan-June)
FY 2013
(July-Dec)
FY 2013
(Jan-June)
FY 2014
(July-Dec)
FY 2014
(Jan-June)
FY 2015
(July-Dec)
FY 2015
(Jan-June)
Av. Bulk Supply Cost (Tk/kWh) If Increased by 12 % (3 yr.)
2.37 Taka/kWh
4.68 Taka/kWh
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Investment Opportunity
in Thermal PowerProjects
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20202020
Plan Projects Under Pre Tendering Process
Sl
No.Description
Capacity
(MW)Fuel
Expected
CODRemarks
PUBLIC SECTOR
1Chapai Nababganj
100 MW Peaking 100 HFO Sep, 2012 Procurement Process will start soon
2Mymensingh JVPDB & RPCL 150
Gas/HFO
June, 2012 Tender invited recently
3Bhola 150 MWCCPP 150 Gas June, 2013
Final Feasibility Report submitted.
Tender doc under preparation
4Barapukuria 250-300 MW Coal (3rdUnit)
250 Coal December, 2013 In house feasibility completed.
DPP is under preparation.
5 Ashuganj 150 CCPP 150 Gas December, 2013 Preliminary Study going on
6Shikalbaha 150-225MW CCPP 150
Gas/HFO
December, 2013 Preliminary Study going on
Finance: Kuwait Fund
7 Bheramara 360MW CCPP
360 Gas June, 2014 EOI invited for consultancy services.
JICA will finance
8Ashuganj 450 MW
CCPP450 Gas March, 2015
Preliminary works
Finance: ADB
Sub-Total 1760
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21212121
Sl DescriptionCapacity
(MW)Fuel
Expected
CODRemarks
PRIVATE SECTOR
1
Savar 100 MWPeaking Plant,Dhaka
100 HFO January,2013 PQ and RFP documents under
preparation.
2 Khulna South 1300 Coal June. 2015
Draft Agreement for Joint Venture
between NTPC & BPDB is under
preparation. Feasibility study is goingon.
Lland acquisition (1834 Acres) at
Chalna, Bagerhat is under process
3
Chittagong 1300Coal Dec. 2015
Feasibility Study will start soon.
Land acquisition (3188 Acres) near
Parki beach is under process
Sub-Total 2700
TOTAL 4460
Plan Projects Under Pre Tendering Process
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District: Bagerhat
Upazila: Rampal
Union: Rajnagar and Gauramba
Mouza : Sapmari Katakhali, (4Nos) Baserhula, Kaigar
Daskati, and
Kapasdanga
Total Area (acre): 475+1,834= 2,309 acres
Distance from Important location
Khulna City 23 km
Mongla Port 14 km
Proposed Khan Jahan Ali Air Port 12.18
Sundarbans 14 km
Proposed Deep Sea Port at AkramPoint of Sundarbans 67 km
Khulna 1300 MW Coal: JV with NTPC
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District: Chittagong
Upazila: AnwaraUnion: Barasat,
Mouza: Rangadia, Majerchar, Gobadia, (12 Nos)Paschim Tulatali, Phultoli,
Dudhkumra, Uttar Paruapara,
Boalia, Barasat, Chalitatali,
Paschim Chal and Bandar
Total Area (acre): 645+ 2543 = 3,188 acre
Distance from Important location
Chittagong Port 11.53
Shah Amanat Int. Air Port 4.3 km
Chittagong 1300 MW Coal
Project on BOO Basis
Location:
Land acquisition and doc preparation
Procurement process will start soon
Project Status
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Project Boundary and Area: Chittagong
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Project Location beside CUFL
Chittagong UreaFertilizer Ltd
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Long Term Generation Plan
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Power System Master Plan- 2010 (up to 2030)
Updates of PSMP 2006: Due to change of planningperspective
PSMP 2010 : Long term planning up to 2030
Findings:
- Generation capacity requirement by 2021: 24,000 MW- Generation capacity requirement by 2030: 39,000 MW
- Coal based generation capacity by 2030: 20,000 MW
- Coal and Nuclear for base load power requirement
- Import of Hydro Power from neighboring countries
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Probable Power Generation:Primary Fuel Sources by 2030
Sl.
No.
Description Capacity (MW) Probable Location (s)
1 Domestic Coal 11,250 North West Region at Mine Mouth
2 Imported Coal 8,400 Chittagong and Khulna
3 Domestic Gas/LNG 8,850 Near Load Centers
4 Nuclear 4,000 Ruppur
5 Regional Grid 3,500Bahrampur - Bheramara, Agartola -
Comilla, Silchar - Fenchuganj,
Purnia-Bogra, Myanmar - Chittagong
6Others (Oil, Hydro
and Renewable) 2,700
Near Load Centers
Total 38,700
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Chittagong 4x660MW
Import Coal
Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030)
: Potential Coal PS: Potential Coal Center: Ocean-going vessel
: Transship
Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future)
Domestic Coal
K-D-P 18x600MW USC
Matarbari
Coal Center
Zajira/New Meg 4x600MW
Chittagong
Sonadia Island
Railway
Total 18,000MW
Matarbari 4x600MW
Sonadia 2x600MW
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Sl Description Capacity(MW)
Executing
AgencyFuel Expected
COD
1Dhaka North- 750 MW, CC 750
RPCL Gas 2016
2 Meghnaghat Large #3, 750MW, CC
750 BPDB Gas 2016
3 Meghnaghat Large #4, 750MW, CC
750 BPDB Gas 2017
4 Chittagong South 600MW
#1ST
600 BPDB Coal-I 2017
5 Megnagatt 600MW #1 600 BPDB Coal-I 2018
6 Keraniganj #1, 750 MW, CC 750 BPDB Gas 2018
7 Power import from Myanmar 500 BPDB Hydro 2018
8 Rooppur Nuclear # 1, 1000 MW 1000 BAEC Nuclear 2018
9 B-K-D-P 1 600MW #1 600 BPDB Coal-D 2019
10 B-K-D-P 1 600MW #2 600 BPDB Coal-D 2019
11 B-K-D-P 1 600MW #3 600 BPDB Coal-D 2020
12 Rooppur Nuclear # 2, 1000 MW 1000 BAEC Nuclear 2020
Total: 8, 500
Generation Plan: From 2016 to 2020
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Renewable EnergyProjects
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Sl.
NO.
Location of the Project Capacity Type of Project
1 Parki Beach, Chittagong 100-200 MW Wind Power
2 Moghnamoghat,
Coxs Bazar
10 MW Wind Power
3 Hatia, Sandwip, and Monpura
Islands
4 MW Wind Power
4 Kaptai, Rangamati 5 MW Grid Connected Solar PV
5 Sarishabari, Jamalpur 2-4 MW Grid Connected Solar PV
6 RTC, Rajshahi 1 MW Grid Connected Solar PV
7 Rajabarihat Goat DevelopmentFarm, Rajshahi 2-4 MW Grid Connected Solar PV
8 St. Martin Island 1.5 MW Wind and Solar Hybrid
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Renewable Energy Projects
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3333
Sarishabari, Jamalpur: Solar
Rajshahi: Solar
Renewable EnergyProjects
Parki Beach, Chittagong: Wind
St. Martins Island: Hybrid
Kaptai, Rangamati: Solar
Coxs Bazar: Wind
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Policy, Incentives and
Security Mechanism forPrivate Investment
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Private Sector Power Generation Policy
Tariff based bidding- Capacity Charge : ensures reasonable return on investment- Energy Charge :fuel cost is pass through item in the tariff
Sovereign guarantee from the Government for
obligations of Government entities throughImplementation Agreement (IA)
Assistance in getting clearances from various agencies
Attractive incentive packages
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Major Incentives for IPPs
Private Sector Power Generation Policy
Exemption from corporate income tax for a period of 15years.
Plant and equipment (full value) and spare parts (10%of original plant cost) without payment of customsduties, VAT and any other surcharges.
Repatriation of equity along with dividends.
Cont
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Major Incentives for IPPs
Tax exemption and repatriation facilities on royalties,technical know how and technical assistance fees
Avoidance of double taxation on the basis of bilateralagreements The Bangladeshi currency, Taka is freely convertible for
FDI
Private Sector Power Generation Policy
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Investment Environment
Project Agreements are of international standard with properlyallocated risks; Project companies are making profit
IPPs and BPDB have met their obligations under the PPA withoutproblems or controversy and no conflict or major problems/issues
have arisen Increased interest reflected in the recent biddings by private
sector developers
Many IPPs are presently operating their businesses with local
managers, engineers and technical staff to the benefit of allconcerned
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Increasing demand for electricity ensures business opportunities
Existing policy and concessions will be continued
Tested and successful approach to IPP development andmanagement will be continued;
Transparency and level playing field in the selection of Bidders
20 bn US $ export, 10 bn US $ remittance and 11 bn US $ foreignexchange reserve indicates capability of IPP payment
Sovereign Credit Rating BB - (Moodys) and Ba3 (S&P)indicates better investment environment
Investment Environment
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Payment Guarantee
Implementation Agreement (IA) and PPA ensure fair and
reasonable risk allocation, and payment by the Purchaser isguaranteed by GOB
Two component tariff - Capacity Price and Energy Price -
ensures sufficient cash flow to recover investment and return Payments under the PPA continue in the event of fuel supply
disruption or dispatch failure
Payment under the PPA is ensured by Letter of Credit
Payment to Escrow Account ensures lenders re - payment
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Conclusion
Government is committed to realize its Vision for the powersector and the economic development of Bangladesh
Government is committed to ensure transparency and an
level playing field in every aspect of the procurementprocess
Government is committed to promote and encourage Private
Sector Participation in power sector development
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We look forward to yourparticipation in the powersector development of
Bangladesh
Thank you
Visit website: www.bpdb.gov.bd forfurther information on power generation projects
http://www.bpdb.gov.bd/http://www.bpdb.gov.bd/ -
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Thank You
GROWTH IS REMARKABLY STABLE AGAINST ALL SHOCKS
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44
6.0
5.7
6.26.4
6.6
6.0
6.3
5.3
4.4
5.3
5.9
4.9
5.25.4
4.6
4.9
4.1
4.6
5.0
3.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RealGDPGrowth(%)
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Natural Disasters External Shocks Linear Trend line (Real GDP Growth)
Tropical Cyclone 04B:Casualty: 650 people
17,000 cattle.
Severe Floods: 36% of thecountry flooded 36 mn people
affected.
Cyclone Sidr: 3500 peoplekilled
Major floods: 500 died, 30%of the country affected
Tropical catastrophiccyclone
Most severe flooding in modernhistory : 66% of the land affected,1000 deaths 26,000 livestock lost,
16,000 km roads damaged.
Bangladesh has maintained consistent growth and never defaulted on its internal or external debt obligationsdespite the Asian and Global Financial Crises, numerous political upheavals and countless natural disasters.
This consistency is practically unrivaled amongst countries of a similar level of development
GROWTH IS REMARKABLY STABLE AGAINST ALL SHOCKSResilient growth despite regular political, environmental and external setbacks
Cyclone 2B:Casualty: 400 people
8,000 cattle
Very severe tropicalCyclone BOB 01
AsianEconomic
Crisis
Very severe cyclonic storm BOB 06:300,000 affected,
8755 homes destroyed
MFA PhaseOut
Oil Pricereaches
>US$100/b
EconomicCrisis
Slowdownafter 9/11
Challenges
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Challenges
Enhanced Gas Exploration, Production
Domestic coal development Coal Import (long term contract) and deep sea port for coal handling
LNG import
Primary Fuel Supply
Ensuring financing for Public and Private sector projects is a majorchallenge
Availability of foreign currency
Project Financing
Infrastructure development by Railway
Dredging of river routes by BIWTA
Capacity build up of BPC, Railway, R&H and BIWTA
Transportation of fuel and equipment
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Project Company's Obligation and GOB/BPDB's role
Sl Projects Company's Obligation GOB/BPDB's role
1. Project Company shall obtain allnecessary debt and equity financing.
Site will be provided throughLand Lease Agreement.
2. Negotiate and execute the Engineering,
Procurement and Construction (EPC)contract with the Contractor.
Cooperate with all appropriate
third parties to facilitate allinfrastructure and utilitiesnecessary for constructionand operation of the Plant.
3. Design, engineering and construction inaccordance with sound engineering andconstruction practices and PrudentUtility Practices.
Assist Project Company toobtain electrical energy forconstruction, Commissioningand Start-up.
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Project Company's Obligation and GOB/BPDB's role
Sl Project Company's Obligation GOB/BPDB's role
4. Provide the necessary facilities andservices for the safety, comfort andprotection of its personnel.
Assist Project Company inconnection with negotiation andexecution of the Fuel Supply
Agreement.
5. Operate and maintain the Plant, inaccordance with Prudent Utility
Practices and Dispatch instructions.
Assist the Project Company inobtaining Governmentauthorizations, permits andlicenses.
Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)
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Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Max.Demand withDSM (In April)
6454 6765 7518 8349 9268 10283
Gen addition -
Public Sector255 851 838 1040 1270 450
Gen. addition -
Private Sector
520 1343 1319 1134 1053 1900
Regional Power Imp 500
Capacity Retired 88 83 161 1292 128
Gen. Capacity(End of Dec) 5936 8042 10116 12629 13660 15882
NET 5699 7720 9711 12124 13114 15247
Dependable Capacity
(End of Dec)4331 5945 7575 9578 10491 12197
Max Surplus/Shortfall
(In Summer)-2123 -820 57 1229 1223 1914
-33% -12% 1% 15% 13% 19%
Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)January, 2011
Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Max.Demand with DSM (In April) Dependable Capacity (End of Dec)
Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)January, 2011
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Mega Coal Projects
in Khulna andChittagong
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Energy Generation: 99.13 M kWh Energy Not Served: 3.13 M kWh
Load Curve on August 20, 2010 (so far Maximum Peak)
GAS
PRIVATE GEN.(GAS)
P.GEN(OIL).
COAL
Hydro
OIL
SHORTAGE
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
24:00
Hour
M
W
GAS PR+En.Curve!$V$33 GEN. (GAS) P.GEN(OIL). COAL Hydro OIL SHORTAGE
4692 MW (4:00 AM)
4699 MW (9:00 PM)
3911 MW (12:00 Noon)
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