az's solar future sept 2012 - includes state and federal issues--11-18-12
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Arizona and Solar Power: The Time is
NOW!
Arizona Corporation
Commissioner Paul Newman
September 2012
What Is AZ’s Electricity Mix?
• Total in-state generation: 27,000 MW
• Total in-state consumption: 16,000 MW– 40-50% coal– ~30% natural gas– ~22% nuclear– ~4% hydro
–Less than 2% solar…?!• Total in-state solar: ~450 MW as of 06/12
AZ Imports 90% of Fossil Fuels
• AZ imports all Nat Gas and 2/3 of coal
• AZ spent a total of $2.5-3 BILLION on coal, natural gas and uranium in 2010.– AZ spent $1.5 billion importing Natural Gas
(NG) for electricity– $800 million spent on NG for heating– AZ spent $500 million in 2007 importing
coal, and $280 million on coal from in-state
AZ: Only 1-2% of Non-hydro Generation is Renewable in 2011
17 states wereless than 1% RE in 2001, including AZ
Only 4 states less than 1% RE in 2011,
including AZ!
RPS Policies
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org / February 2012
Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% x 2020*
CA: 33% x 2020
NV: 25% x 2025*
AZ: 15% x 2025
NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% x 2030
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large
munis)*
MT: 15% x 2015 ND: 10% x
2015
SD: 10% x 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% x 2025
(Xcel: 30% x 2020)
MO: 15% x 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
~10% x 2015 statewide
MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015*
OH: 25% x 2025†
ME: 30% x 2000New RE: 10% x 2017
NH: 23.8% x 2025
MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020
(+1% annually thereafter)
RI: 16% x 2020
CT: 27% x 2020NY: 29% x
2015
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021+ 5,316 GWh solar x
2026
PA: ~18% x 2021†
MD: 20% x 2022
DE: 25% x 2026*
DC: 20% x 2020
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x
2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017
KS: 20% x 2020
OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)
IL: 25% x 2025
29 states + DC and PR have an RPS
(8 states have goals)
29 states + DC and PR have an RPS
(8 states have goals)
OK: 15% x 2015
PR: 20% x 2035
WV: 25% x 2025*†VA: 15% x 2025*
DC
IN: 15% x 2025†
Renewable Portfolio Standards
AZ Renewable Energy Standard (RES) is 15% by
2025
Year Requirement
2008 1.75 %
2011 3.00 %
2014 4.50 %
2017 7.00 %
2020 10.00 %
2024 14.00 %
After 2024
15.00 %
AZ’s RES means that 15% of the kilowatt-hours generated by regulated utilities come from ‘clean energy’: solar, wind, biomass, solar hot water, concentrating solar etc. by 2025…AZ’s RES is far lower than Colorado (30% by 2020), California (33% by 2020), Nevada (25% by 2025)New Mexico (20% by 2020)
24 States Generate More Clean Electricity Than AZ!
A list of the states/jurisdictions with more clean energy than AZ: Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Rhode Island, Illinois, Washington D.C., Delaware, Maryland, Hawaii, Kansas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Nevada, Connecticut, California, Maine, Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Texas, North Carolina, New York and New Jersey.
Each of these states generates MORE clean energy than Arizona!
See the next slide for details, from www.dsireusa.org/library by Justin Barnes, 3/6/12, RPS Update at Renewable Energy Markets Ass’n webinar
24 States Generate More Clean Electricity Than AZ!
Why do each of these states generate MORE clean energy than Arizona?
Because the U.S. has nearly 10 times more wind than solar – 50 GW (50,000 MW) of wind v. 5.7 GW (5,700 MW of solar PV and CSP or Concentrating Solar Power).
In most other states, solar is far more expensive than in AZ because they don’t generate as much electricity per installed watt of solar.
24 States Generate More Clean Electricity Than AZ at 3.5%!
Oregon 5.0% Wisconsin 5.6% Michigan 5.6% Rhode Island 6.5% Illinois 7.0% Washington D.C. 7.5% Delaware 8.0% Maryland 9.0% Hawaii, Kansas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and
New Hampshire and New Jersey 10% Massachusetts, Nevada, Connecticut, Colorado
14-16%
California, Iowa, Minnesota 18-20%
State2009 MWh Obligation 2010 MWh Obligation
2009 (% Comp) 2010 (% Comp)
2012 % Obligation 2013 % Obligation
AZ 824,430 1,015,858 90% 93% 3.50% 4.00%CA 29,537,501 34,116,201 89% 86% 20.00% 20.00%CO 1,646,899 1,520,066 100% 99% 15.00% (IOUs) 15.00% (IOUs)CT no data no data no data no data 16.00% 17.00%DC 591,576 699,887 100% 100% 7.50% 9.00%DE 291,451 410,618 100% 99% 8.50% 10.00%HI 0 957,857 n/a 100% 10.00% 10.00%IA 295,800 295,800 100% 100% 105 MW 105 MWIL 2,283,383 2,747,874 100% 100% 7.00% 8.00%KS 0 0 n/a n/a 10.00% 10.00%MA 3,096,274 5,468,563 82% 74% 14.10% 15.10%MD 2,770,353 3,539,778 100% 100% 9.00% 10.70%ME 3,514,043 3,832,365 100% 100% 35.00% 36.00%MI 0 0 n/a n/a 5.60% 6.80%MN 3,860,255 7,093,647 100% 100% 18% (Xcel); 12% 18% (Xcel); 12% MO 0 0 n/a n/a 2.00% 2.00%MT 346,261 692,167 100% 98% 1.00% 1.00%NC 0 24,867 n/a 100% 3.00% (IOUs) 3.00% (IOUs)NH 608,000 830,347 93% 90% 10.65% 11.70%NJ 5,733,633 6,841,213 99% 100% 9.64% (non-solar) 10.48% (non-solar)NM 852,285 858,705 100% 100% 10.00% 10.00%NV 3,551,815 3,493,644 100% 100% 15.00% 18.00%NY 4,868,849 3,061,948 61% 96% 4.54% (new) 5.60% (new)OH 333,809 602,196 100% 100% 1.50% 2.00%OR 0 0 n/a n/a 5.00% 5.00%PA 829,374 no data 100% no data 10.22% 10.72%RI 316,424 no data 100% no data 6.50% 7.50%TX 6,799,347 9,053,544 100% 100% 3,384 MW 3,384 MWWA 0 0 n/a n/a 3.00% 3.00%WI 2,501,915 3,850,101 100% 100% 5.55% 5.55%
Sources: MWh and compliance % data from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; 2012 and 2013 compliance obligations from DSIRE.
AZ REST is 15% by 2025 – low!
Arizona v. New Jersey:Solar Investment
Arizona • 448 MW total installed solar• $637 million was spent on solar photovoltaic
installations in Arizona in 2011- nearly twice as much as was spent in 2010.
New Jersey• 775 MW total installed solar; 2nd in U.S. • In 2011, $1.2 billion was invested in New
Jersey to install solar for homes.
http://www.seia.org/policy/state-solar-policy
Solar Module Costs: From $7/watt Down to ~$1.25/watt
Source: Deutsche Bank, January 2011; Systems are global (i.e., blended across geographies)
Installed System Price per Watt, 2008-2011
14
3Q10 Breakout
$3.17
$2.83
$3.72
$5.92
15
APS’ RW Beck Study on the Value Of Distributed Energy
Operating Impacts and Valuation study
RW Beck study says the value of distributed solar is 7.9 to 14.11 cents/kWh in avoided costs for fuel, trans-mission, line losses, etc.
Worldwide PV ShipmentsPV has historically been a marginal power source, but incentives drove steep growth in demand from
’01-’05 Foreign incentives and R&D programs have driven worldwide competition past U.S. producers
U.S. supplied over 30% of
worldwide PV until 1998; now
only 5-7%
Total Installed Solar Power Per MillionPeople Very Low In the U.S. Relative to
Germany, Spain, Czech Republic (what?!) – even Canada!
Germany Has Nearly Half of the World’s Installed Solar PV
Germany has installed 15 times more solar per person than the U.S.!
AZ Wins in Clean Energy Future
• AZ: not living up to clean energy potential• AZ exports about 30% of our electricity: why not
export clean electrons?• AZ’s Renewable Energy Standard and Tariff
(REST) is far behind CA, CO, NM and NV.• Financing mechanisms currently available for
fossil fuels must be extended to clean energy; also developing policies that recognize the true benefits of solar/clean electricity.
• Good financing structures are key!
Solar Has Created
Jobs Almost 10xFaster Than the National Average
Sadly, not many of these projects are in AZ! See this map from SEIA:
http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-means-business-top-commercial-solar-customers-us
Global Renewable Energy 2011:$257 billion invested ($147B Solar)
http://newenergynews.blogspot.com/2012/06/solar-leads-world-new-energy-investment.html
Federal Policies That Help Clean Energy
• Level the playing field for subsidies• Reduce/end subsidies for fossil fuels• Extend the Production Tax Credit (wind) and the
Investment Tax Credit (solar, expires 2016).• Allow the use of Master Limited Partnerships for clean
energy – not just oil, gas and biofuels.• Extend Section 1603 cash in lieu of tax credit. Arizona
has benefited enormously from Section 1603! • Allow PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) to be
applied to residential as well as commercial solar – especially great for Arizona!
Section 1603: $409 Million Worth of Projects in Arizona To Date
• Section 1603 is a cash grant in lieu of taking a 30% solar tax investment tax credit.
• Section 1603 was extended for ONE year in 12/31/10, but has not been renewed since it expired on 12/31/11.
• AZ has rec’d $409 million in Section 1603 projects, mostly
solar. http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/recovery/Pages/1603.aspx
• The Solar ITC (Investment Tax Credit) expires in 2016 and should be extended.
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us-congress-pulls-the-plug-on-section-1603-treasury-program_100005372/#ixzz1xWjx07I9
Wind PTC (Production Tax Credit) In Danger; U.S. Wind Market Could Fall 80%
U.S. wind market could fall by 80% without PTC extension.
U.S. has enormous wind and solar potential
Wind has suffered boom and bust cycles; why are we doing this?!
Solar means good jobs!
$72.5 billion for Fossil Fuels
$12.2 billion for Wind and Solar
Cumulative Historical Federal Subsidies Heavily Favor Oil and Gas
29
$446.96
$185.38
$32.34
$5.93
Cumulative Historical Federal Subsidies2010$, billions
O&G
Nuclear
Biofuels
Renewables
1918-2009
1994-2009
1980-2009
1947-1999
Key Finding - Average Annual Subsidies to Each Energy Sector Over
Their Lifetime
30
$4.86
$3.50
$1.08$0.37
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
O&G, 1918-2009 Nuclear, 1947-1999 Biofuels, 1980-2009 Renewables, 1994-2009
2010$,billions
Historical Average of Annual Energy Subsidies:A Century of Federal Support
Coal, Electric Utilities Spend Heavily on Lobbying
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/beyond-coal-plant-activism?page=3
Health Effects from Burning Fossil Fuels are Enormous
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