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ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos© Prof. K. Zografos
STEPsSTEPsScenarios for the Transport Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply System and Energy Supply
and their Potential Effectsand their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1AFramework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional ResearchInstrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research
WP2: Transportation trends and energy WP2: Transportation trends and energy implicationsimplications
Prof. Konstantinos G. ZografosProf. Konstantinos G. ZografosAthens University of Economics and BusinessAthens University of Economics and Business
TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory TRANsportation Systems and Logistics Laboratory (TRANSLOG)(TRANSLOG)
e-mail: translog@aueb.gre-mail: translog@aueb.gr
STEPs meeting, Leuven, 18/05/2006STEPs meeting, Leuven, 18/05/2006
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
CONTENTS OF PRESENTATION
- Objectives
- Analysis framework
- Freight transport energy use
- Passenger transport energy use
- Concluding remarks
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
OBJECTIVES OF PRESENTATION
- To identify the relationship between freight/passenger transport and energy, taking into account the evolution of the political, socio-economic and technological environment.
- To identify indicators measuring the impacts of the identified trends on freight and passenger transport energy use.
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
SCM / LOGISTICS
TRENDS
SPATIALDEVELOPMENT
TRENDS
MOBILITYTRENDS
FREIGHTTRANSPORTUTILIZATION
ENERGYEFFICIENCY
PASSENGERTRANSPORTUTILIZATION
POLITICALDRIVERS
SOCIO-ECONOMICDRIVERS
TECHNOLOGYDRIVERS
ENERGYSUPPLY
ENERGY AVAILABILITY
ENERGYUSE
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
Type of movement /geographical scale
Transport mode
Type of system
Freight transportPassenger transport
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT ENERGY USE
ECONOMICINDUSTRIAL
OUTPUT(tonnes
produced)
HANDLINGFACTOR
TONNESLIFTED
FREQUENCY
LENGTH OFHAUL
LOADFACTOR
EMPTY RUNS
SCMTRENDS
PESTDRIVERS
MODAL SPLITTONNES BY
MODE OFTRANSPORT
TON-KMS
FUELCONSUMPTI
ON
VEHICLE-KMS
VEHICLETECHNOLOGI
ES
ENERGYSUPPLY
ENERGYAVAILABILITY
ENERGYEFFICIENCY
SPATIALDEVELOPMENT AND
LAND USE PATTERNS
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
SCM TrendsDrivers
SCP SCIWGS
DVDP OS DD NDD RL
DBBTS
Fiscal policy √ √
Transport policy √ √ √
Environmental policy √
Energy policy √
Land use policy √ √
Regional development policy
√ √
Globalization √ √ √ √ √
Level of economic activity / income
√ √ √ √
E-commerce √ √
Communication and information technologies
√
SCP: Spatial Concentration of Production, SCI: Spatial Concentration of Inventory, WGSD: Wider Geographical Sourcing and Distribution, VDP: Vertical Disintegration of Production, OS: Outsourcing, DD: Direct Deliveries, ND: Nominated Day Deliveries, RL: Reverse Logistics, DBBTS: Development of Break-Bulk/Transhipment Systems
PEST DRIVERS VS. SCM TRENDS FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
Effects on Freight Transport
SCM Trends
Number of trips
Length of trips
Speed of trips
Frequency of trips
Vehicle utilizatio
n
Spatial Concentration of Production √ √ √
Spatial Concentration of Inventory √ √ √
Wider Geographical Sourcing and Distribution √ √ √ √ √
Vertical Disintegration of Production √ √ √
Outsourcing √ √
Direct Deliveries √ √ √ √ √
Nominated Day Deliveries √ √ √ √ √
Reverse Logistics √ √ √
Development of Break-Bulk/Transhipment Systems √ √ √
SCM TRENDS VS. EFFECTS ON FREIGHT TRANSPORT UTILIZATION
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
BROADER PEST ENVIRONMENT
Fiscal policy (taxation andincentives)
Transport policy(deregulation)
Environmental policy
Energy policy
Land use policy
Regional developmentpolicy
Globalization
Level of economic activity(GDP)
Marker penetration ofalternative vehicle
technologies
Marker barriers forintroducing alternativevehicle technologies
E-commerce
Fleet composition
Energy efficiency (averagefuel consumption)
Advancement of vehicletechnologies
Communicationtechnologies
Fuel supply infrastructure
SUPPLY CHAIN ORGANIZATIONTRENDS
Spatial concentration ofinventory
Spatial concentration ofproduction
Wider geographicalsourcing and distribution
Vertical disintegration ofproduction
Outsourcing
Direct deliveries
Nominated day deliveries
Reverse logistics
Development of break-bulk/transhipment systems
EFFECTS ON FREIGHTTRANSPORT SYSTEM
UTILIZATION
Number of trips
Length of trips
Speed of trips
Frequency of trips
Vehicle utilization
INDICATORS INFLUENCINGENERGY USE IN FREIGHT
TRANSPORT
Freight transport demand(ton-km/capita, veh-km/
capita)
Freight transport vehicleconsumption
Handling factor
Load factor
Average length of haul
Freight transport modal split
PEST DRIVERS, SCM TRENDS, FREIGHT TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION AND ENERGY USE INDICATORS
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR
- Major drivers of the broader environment affecting the freight transport sector are:
Globalization / market deregulation Technological progress Growing affluence.
- The abovementioned prevalent driving forces are further supported by:
Policy changes (fiscal, transport, environmental, energy use, land use and regional development) Growing economies of scale Mass customization
- These drivers contribute to an ever-increasing intensity of freight transportation.
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- The provision and use of freight transportation services demonstrates the following characteristics:
Use of more energy efficient freight transportation vehicles Improvement in vehicle utilization, higher load factors and reduction of empty runs Increase of the use of intermodal freight transportation
CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- Scenarios should consider the following trends:
Increasing demand for freight transport services Increasing fuel efficiency for freight transport vehicles, Increasing efficiency in the use of freight transport vehicles, Increasing intermodality, leading to different modal split.
CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- Trends affect five characteristics of the utilization of the freight transport system:
Number of trips Length of trips Frequency of trips Vehicle utilization Speed of trips
CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- Modelling of energy use in freight transport should consider the following indicators:
Freight transport demand (ton-km/capita, veh-km/capita) Freight transport modal split Average length of haul Load factor Handling factor Freight transport vehicle fuel consumption
CONCLUDING REMARKS – FREIGHT TRANSPORT SECTOR
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
NUMBER OFPASSENGER
TRIPS
DISTANCESTRAVELED
(TRIPLENGTH)
AVERAGEVEHICLE
OCCUPANCY
MOBILITYTRENDS
ENERGYRESOURCES
MODAL SPLIT
PASSENGER-KMS
FUELCONSUMPTI
ON
VEHICLE-KMS
VEHICLETECHNOLOGI
ES
PESTDRIVERS
ENERGYAVAILABILITY
TRANSPORTSYSTEM
CHARACTERISTICS
ENERGYEFFICIENCY
SPATIALDEVELOPMENTAND LAND USE
PATTERNS
DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY USE
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
Mobility Trends
Drivers
Increase in
mobility
Virtual mobilit
y
Time and space
compression
Decrease in public transport
use
Increase in private car
use
Fiscal policy √
Transport policy √
Environmental policy √
Energy policy √ √
Land use and spatial development policy √ √ √ √
Globalization of the economy √ √ √
E-commerce √
Level of economic activity / income √ √ √ √
Population demographics √ √ √
Car ownership √ √ √
Market penetration of alternative vehicle technologies
√ √
Market barriers for alternative vehicle technologies
√
Social life-styles √ √ √ √
Traffic management technologies √ √
Communication and information technologies √ √
Energy efficiency (average fuel consumption) √ √ √
Fuel supply infrastructure √ √
Fleet composition √ √
PEST DRIVERS VS. MOBILITY TRENDS FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
Effects on passengertransport
Mobility trends
Number of trips
Distances travelled
Speed of trips
Frequency of trips
Vehicle utilisation
Increase in mobility √ √ √ √
Virtual mobility √ √ √ √
Time and space compression √ √ √ √ √
Decrease in public transport use
√ √ √
Increase in private car use √ √ √ √ √
MOBILITY TRENDS VS. EFFECTS OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT UTILIZATION
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
BROADER PEST ENVIRONMENT
Fiscal policy (taxation andincentives)
Transport policy(deregulation)
Environmental policy
Energy policy
Land use and spatialdevelopment policy
Population demographics
Globalization
Level of economic activity(GDP)
Marker penetration ofalternative vehicle
technologies
Marker barriers forintroducing alternativevehicle technologies
Car ownership
Fleet composition
Energy efficiency (averagefuel consumption)
Advancement of vehicletechnologies
Communication andinformation technologies
Fuel supply infrastructure
MOBILITY TRENDS
Increase in mobility
Virtual mobility (tele-shopping, tele-working)
Time and spacecompression (traveling
further faster)
Decrease in public transportuse
Increase in private car use
EFFECTS ON PASSENGERTRANSPORT SYSTEM
UTILIZATION
Number of trips
Distances traveled
Speed of trips
Frequency of trips
INDICATORS INFLUENCINGENERGY USE IN PASSENGER
TRANSPORT
Passenger transportdemand (pax-km)
Passenger vehicle fuelconsumption
Average length of trips
Vehicle occupancy rate
Passenger transport modalsplit (pax-km/mode)
Social life-styles
Traffic managementtechnologies
Vehicle utilization
PEST ENVIRONMENT, MOBILITY TRENDS, PASSENGER TRANSPORT SYSTEM UTILIZATION AND ENERGY USE INDICATORS
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR
- Major drivers of the broader environment affecting the passenger transport sector are:
Growth in affluence Globalisation, European integration and market deregulation Growing economies of scale Declining residential densities
A trend for increased mobility (in terms of the number and length of trips), coupled with a trend for faster and more flexible realization of mobility needs and an increase in the use of private automobiles, will continue to be observed.
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR
- The provision and use of passenger transport services demonstrates the following characteristics:
Use of more energy efficient private automobiles, Increase in the more efficient use of private automobiles through more effective traffic management, Use of innovative demand management policies and measures, Substitution of travel by communication services, Efforts to redirect trips from road and air to environment-friendly public transport .
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- Scenarios should consider the following trends: :
Increasing demand for passenger transport services, Increasing fuel efficiency of private automobiles, More efficient use of automobiles, Introduction of policies and concepts for more efficient travel demand management.
CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- Mobility trends affect the following characteristics of the passenger transport system utilization:
Number of trips produced Distances travelled Frequency of trips Speed of trips Vehicle utilization Choice of fuels
CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND LOGISTICS LABORATORY (TRANSLOG)
© Prof. K. Zografos
- Modelling of energy use in passenger transport should consider the following indicators:
Passenger transport system demand (pax-km) Modal split per transport mode (pax-km/mode) Vehicle occupancy rate Average length of trips Passenger car fuel consumption
CONCLUDING REMARKS – PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR
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