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Approaches to Liberalization- Paving the way to common grounds -
Katsuhiro Yamaguchi, DirectorCivil Aviation Bureau
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and TransportJapan
2 5th May, 2005
Geography matters
“I have spent my whole professional life as an international economist thinking and writing about economic geography, without being aware of it,” Paul Krugman (1991)
Air Transport in East Asia
eastbound
Asia
Europe
Pacific
Asia
Europe
Japan Japan
216291
484
100 5 346
4001301
46 324
1213
Pacific
Europe
Asia
Japan
2
80
223
743
legendtransitdirect
Thousand tons
Asia
Pacific
Europe
19439 179
122
847 242Japan
westboundeastbound
westbound
Pacific
55
275
82
Air Transport in East AsiaRapidly increasing business travel
thousand passengers
Japanese travelers to East Asia
5,050 thousand
8,070 thousand
Destination for Japanese international travelers
Air Transport in East Asia
East Asia
OthersHawaii, Guam
local
Increase in frequencies (flights/week)
Share of scheduled flights from local airports in Japan to East Asia
Expanding network between local airports in Japan and East Asia
Zibo
Kuala Lumpur
Harbin
Jakarta
Bangkok
Beijing
Shanghai
Tianjin
WuhanGuangzhou
ChengduXian Nanjing
DalianJinan
Taiyuan
Zhengzhou
DongquanGuiyang
Lanzhou
Kunming
Manila
Ha Noi
Ho Chi Mihn
JuznoSahalinskVladivosto
k
Habarovsk
Denpasar
Network between local airports in Japan and East Asia
local
UlsanTaegu
Shenzhen
Hangzhou
Chaoyang
FuzhouChangsha
ChejuKwangyuQingdao
Seoul
Hong Kong
XiamenChongqing
Singapore
IncheonTaejonPusan
Taipei
ChangchunShenyang
China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam
Path Dependence
Progressive liberalization is necessary to avoid negative lock-in due to capacity constraints
Potential patterns of payoffs
34312825221916131074Path 22019181716151413121110Path 1109876543210
Modified from Brian Arthur (1989)
Cooperative Game
Shift from a non-cooperative to a cooperative scheme should be pursued
Cooperative scheme would need some sort of a function to enforce common policy goals
Cooperative Game
Comprehensive and repeated interaction would foster development of “common grounds”
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