antigua monday, december 7, 2009

AntiguaMonday, December 7, 2009

AntiguaMonday, December 7,

2009

Main objectives of the study

Assess social impacts of the Global Economic CrisisReview policy responsesRecommend a roadmap for improving social

resilience among Caribbean SIDS

Introduce PSIA to the region as a policy tool.

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Methodology

Review of reports and statistical indicators (completed)

Key informant interviews with government, civil society, private sector actors (completed)

Focus group discussions (FGD) with vulnerable and affected groups (completed)

Cross-country comparison analysis (in process)

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Methodology

FGDs Jointly conducted with Ministry (social transformation)

counterparts Affected groups

Laid off employees (hospitality sector) Construction workers Entrepreneurs

Vulnerable groups Poor men and women (urban/rural) Elderly Youth Disabled

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Key questions

Given inherent vulnerability and openness to external shocks, it is entirely expected that Caribbean countries would be affected.

However: Why are some countries more vulnerable than

others? Why are some countries more resilient than others?

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Context: Socio-economic indicators

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Country GDP per capita (PPP US$ 2007) 1

Life expectancy1

Infant mortality2

Adult literacy1

(%)

Population3 HDI rank

Barbados 17,956 77.0 12 99.7 274,700 37

Antigua and Barbuda

18,691 74.8 11 99.0 87,506 47

Saint Kitts and Nevis

14,481 72.2 18 97.8 51,967 62

Saint Lucia 9,786 73.6 18 94.8 172,034 69

Dominica 7,893 77 18 88.0 71,612 73

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

7,691 71.4 19 88.1 100,510 91

Montserrat 3,400 72.8 97 4,875 n/a

Context: Poverty rates

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Country Poverty rate (%)

Antigua and Barbuda 18.3

Dominica 39.0

Montserrat NA

St. Kitts and Nevis 21.8

St. Lucia 28.8

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

30.2

Year

2005/06

2003

2008

2007/08

2005

2007/08

Context: Unemployment

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Country Unemployment Rate (%) Year

Antigua and Barbuda 4% 2006

Barbados 9.9% 2009

Dominica* 11% 2007

Montserrat* 13.0% 2009

St. Kitts and Nevis 5.1% 2008

St. Lucia 17% 2005

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 18.8% 2008

Source: Country CPAs, *Country data

Context: Recent developments

The global economic crisis has occurred in the context of other events of social/economic significance:

Food and fuel price increase (global) Collapse of the banana sector (Windwards) Natural disasters – hurricanes (region), volcanic

eruptions (Montserrat) Increase in social problems among youth – (region-

wide)Regional airfare increases

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Main findings: Transmission channels

Primary transmission channelsUnemploymentReduced incomeHigher prices

Secondary transmission channelsReduced consumptionHealth and disabilityRising debt and delinquencies

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Potential stages of transmission

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Main findings: tourism decline

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Destination 2007 2008 2009 (YTD)

Anguilla 6.4 -12.1 -21.4

Antigua & Barbuda 3.2 1.5 -12.9

Barbados 1.8 -0.9 -8.5

Dominica -8.8 2.6 -3.5

Grenada 9.0 -4.1 -4.6

Guyana 9.0 1.0 2.7

Jamaica 1.3 3.9 3.4

Montserrat -2.7 -5.0 -15.3

St. Kitts and Nevis -7.4 -13.6 -

Saint Lucia -5.0 2.9 -9.4

St. Vincent & the Grenadines -8.0 -6.2 -8.1

Stop-over arrivals – percentage change (y.o.y)

Main findings: negative impacts

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Impact: Employment Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Taking on work atypical for gender (e.g. women engaging in construction work)

Women

Anxiety of not finding work due to age Older unemployed

Payment delays Employees,

Partial payment Employees

Employers taking advantage of employees - working them harder

Employees

Employers taking advantage of employees – pressure for sexual favors

Employees - female

More difficult finding work commensurate to qualifications

Skilled/educated workers

Accepting lower status/skilled profession to remain employed

Job seekers

Main findings: negative impacts

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Impact Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Education

Forgoing education in order to work, or because too expensive

Youth

Not buying school books Children

More difficulty in getting loans Youth

Health and diet

Inability to buy food or need to substitute for less nutritious options

Fewer visits to doctor

More difficult to obtain equipment needed since the priority now is on obtaining basic needs

Disabled

Main findings: negative impacts

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Impact: Financial/budgeting issues Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Needing extensions to credit Entrepreneurs

Banks threatening to seize property Home owners

Delinquencies on loans

Decrease in savings

Arrears on utility/telephone bills Homeowners/renters

Bills not getting paid

Drop in child support allowance Mothers

Inability to pay mortgage Homeowners

Main findings: negative impacts

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Impact: Business Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Lower sales Entrepreneurs

Increased competition Entrepreneurs

Taking losses Entrepreneurs

Minimizing wholesale purchases Entrepreneurs

Main findings: negative impacts

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Impact: Consumption Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Reduced allowance for school, etc.

Reduction in remittances and barrels Children/youth

Cost of living has increased

Overall spending down

Less spending on entertainment

Inability to pay utility bills on time

Main findings: negative impacts

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Impact: Psychological/emotional/spiritual Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Increased levels of stress

Feelings of inadequacy Men

Feelings of embarrassment Men

Rising domestic violence Families

Family breakdown Families

Depression Adults

Parents expressing anger at children Parents/children

Less socializing with friends Youth

Hyperactive behaviour Children

Main findings: positive impacts

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Impacts Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Psychological/emotional/spiritual

Helping others/neighbors

Spending more time with children (if unemployed)

Bringing people together

Praying more

Consumption/expenditures

Self-sufficiency through backyard/kitchen gardening

Conserving energy

Less meat in the diet?

Main findings: Coping strategies

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Strategy Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Employment

Migration in search of work Youth

Relocation overseas in order to have access to better healthcare

Starting own business Former employees

Turning to agriculture as an income source

Housing

Moving back in with parents Young persons

Renting smaller homes Families

Main findings: Coping strategies

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Strategy Examples of groups most commonly associated with

Health and diet

Switching to less expensive food

Fewer meals

Illegal activity

Transactional sex Women

Engaging in prostitution Women

Financial/budgeting issues

More careful budgeting/rearranging priorities Families

Doing without or with fewer discretionary purchases/leisure activities

Non-poor

Fewer clothing purchases

Main findings: Increased dependence on the state

Households that once supported elderly parents, both at home and abroad turning to Governments for assistance because they have been laid off or are afflicted by other effects of the crisis.

Care facilities and Government programs suffering from an increase in applicants for assistance at a time, when in some cases, they are introducing austerity measures.

Community and Social Development departments have recorded an increase in number of persons coming in asking for assistance in the form of food baskets, rent assistance and monetary support.

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Main findings: Country response Many Governments have responded with both economic and

social policy measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis

However, new social measures have been fairly minimal in scope. There are various possible reasons for this:1. Impact of the crisis has been relatively mild (Montserrat,

Dominica), reducing perceived need to expand or introduce programs

2. Existing social protection measures were considered adequate to forestall the worst effects of the crisis (Barbados)

3. Preference for economic policy measures over social measures (St. Kitts)

4. Inadequate resources (Antigua, St. Kitts)

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Vulnerability and resilience

Definitions

Vulnerability – Exposure of to exogenous shocks arising out of openness

Resilience – Policy-induced ability to withstand or recover from effects of a shock

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Vulnerability and resilience

The study has confirmed that a country’s and a population’s vulnerability to the crisis is related to the degree of its exposure to the global economy

Social resilience is related to a country’s ability to recover from a shock, through a stronger social protection system, greater food security,

The countries in the region can be classified according to both dimensions. The following matrix is based on the findings from the current study.

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Policy responses

INSTRUCTIONS: Based on the conceptualization above, place countries within the matrix. On a separate sheet, provide a justification for the placement

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More resilient Less resilient

Less vulnerable

More vulnerable