anti-terrorist force protection: harbor tactical 3d simulations for risk, consequence assessment don...

Anti-Terrorist Force Protection:Harbor Tactical 3D Simulations

for Risk, Consequence Assessment

Don Brutzman

International Maritime Protection Symposium13 December 2005

Outline

MotivationBusiness model, access considerationsAgent-based tactics modelingApplicationsCluster computations to support analystX3D Graphics modelingRecommendations

Motivation

Defend against small-boat attack• Evolution of studies on USS COLE attack

Assess risk, vulnerabilities, consequences, alternatives

Analysis to support 3 classes of customers• Harbor defense funding priorities• Harbor operations, actual & projected• Ships entering port, joining defenders

AT/FP technical approach

Model tactical layout of harbor, facilities • Agent-based situated tactics for each player• 3D visualization

Open standards and open source• NPS agent toolkit: discrete-event Simkit/Viskit• Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics• Distributed Interactive Simulation Protocol

Scalable, repeatable methodology• Suitable for data-driven production, repetition

Business model

Too many proprietary toolsets• High cost, not sustainable, not interoperable• Over time, essential data lost to further use

Daylight encourages good behavior• Business-friendly open-source licensing• Repeatable capabilities extendable over

Web

Nothing succeeds like success • Use proven best practices, everyone wins

Consortia partnerships essential

Stable, evolving Web-based standards • Also need best practices• Capable partners, industry and individual

Web3D Consortium• Real-time 3D communications using X3D• http://www.web3D.org

World Wide Consortium for the Grid (W2COG)• http://www.w2cog.org

Access considerations

Hardest technical challenges are science and interoperation, not classification rules• F=MA, E=IR, et cetera, writ large & connected

XML used for all data• Validatable, with self-describing metadata

Build unclassified versions, preferably using public well-documented resources

Modify data (not code) for classified use

Key Technologies

Extensible Markup Language (XML)• Validatable data, binary compression• Web Services for message exchange

Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics• ISO-approved interactive visualization

Our approach• Demonstrate military value of new technology• Collaborate, implement, evaluate, report, repeat

XML in 10 Points http://www.w3.org/XML/1999/XML-in-10-points

XML is for structuring dataXML looks a bit like HTMLXML is text, but isn't meant

to be readXML is verbose by designXML is a family of

technologies

XML is new, but not that new

XML leads HTML to XHTMLXML is modularXML is basis for RDF and

the Semantic WebXML is license-free,

platform-independent and well-supported350+ member companies & institutions

in World Wide Web Consortium (W3C)already understand the business case

Extensible Markup Language

Potential problem: XML size, bandwidth

Replacing data “stovepipes” with XML might be difficult since most tactical streams are highly compressed• Tactical showstopper for GIG architectures

Common problem in many domainsCandidate binary-XML solutions exist

• NPS XSBC, Sun’s Fast Infoset, others• Continuing W3C working group effort provides metrics,

use cases and process, working to produce: • Efficient XML Interchange (EXI) standard effort

underway, where “efficient” = smaller + faster • http://www.w3.org/XML/Binary

XML encoding for validation benefitsXML schema holds adequate informationTokenization of elements, attributesStrong data typing of value payloadsLosslessMore efficient than compressed numeric text

XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)

XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)

Conclusion: XSBC size, speed already better than gzip!

4.2 MB 42.9 MB 85.6 MB 29.8 MB 3.5 MB

smallest size, parsing speedup 4-7x !!

originals typical

compression

Extensible Modeling & Simulation Framework

XMSF is Web services for all manner of M&SA composable set of standards, profiles, and

recommended practices for web-based M&SFoundational precepts: Internet network

technologies, Extensible Markup Language (XML)-based languages, and service-oriented architectures for simple messaging

Enable a new generation of distributed M&S applications to emerge, develop, interoperate with tactical systems

Many easily repeatable exemplars using Web Services

http://www.MovesInstitute.org/xmsf

Simkit, Viskit, Diskit

Discrete Event Simulation (DES)Methodology, Open-Source

Implementation

Viskit tool for Simkit

Visual tool for building, analyzing Simkit modelsWell-understood methodology for Discrete Event Simulation (DES)

Professional qualityUnlocks years of NPS student-research effort

• with reduced programming

Digitizing NPS courses for continued analyst use

Simkit technical approach

Well-tested Java class libraries• DES event queue runs quickly or in real time• Event graphs define classes of interest• Assembly instantiates entities, collects

statistics

Visual model• Logical, inspectable definition of relationships• Saved as validated XML• Autogenerates Java source code• Analysts get quality code (without being gurus)

Attacker event graph 1

Attacker event graph 2

Visual model saved as XML

XML model version converted to Java source, when needed by client or cluster

Code generation from XML and corresponding Java compilation are immediate

Viskit tactical scenarios

Diverse real-world locations and military players

Friendly, neutral and attacker entities2D tactical layout with 3D visualization

• Networked DIS for X3D playback

Multiple scenarios under development• Indian Island refueling pier – “hello world”• ABOT oil terminal, Bremerton waterfront

Warfighter understandability is essential

Defender event graph

Neutral shipping event graph

Assembly connects event graphs

Tactical supercomputing and linux cluster support for analysts

TrendsCommodity processorsInexpensive networkingFree, off-the-shelf, open-source softwareCheap storageInternet web standards

Leading toCluster SupercomputersInexpensive, deployableScalable computing resource (just add PC boxes)Shared via web standards orstandalone

Tactical supercomputing

Tactical supercomputing

Linux clusters can create new resources• 5 off-the-shelf new PC boxes + disk storage• $10K = 10 processors = 10 Gigaflop • Refrigerator-rack footprint easily fits shipboard • Industry can provide even higher capabilities

Exploring intermediate-level resources for previously supercomputer-level problems• Consistent access via grid/web services

Applied: Viskit Design of Experiments

Cluster statisics via web page

So what is a cluster good for?

First test and view basic tactical scenarios, then

Conduct massive replications for statistics• Analyst Design of Experiments (DOE) panel• Latin Hypercube scheme varies design points• Simulation “experiments” are repeatable due to

pseudo-random number generator distributions

But wait, there’s more…• Replay “outliers” to assess vulnerability, learn

exactly why certain hostile scenarios succeeded

X3D Graphics modeling

ISO-standard 3D graphics interchange for the Web

Emerging Application Suite

SavageStudio authoring for creating scenarios• Builds both X3D scenes and Viskit assemblies

Viskit discrete-event simulation tool• Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS)

protocol for real-time operation• Cluster control

X3D visualization of scenario progress• using open-source Xj3D browser

Analytic assessment report generator

ABOT oil terminal

Scenario snapshots

Bremerton harbor

Scenario snapshots

Analytic assessment report generator

Automatically integrate analytic products created during problem setup, exploration

Prompt for analyst comments at appropriate locations in the report

Success criteria: thorough, easyFirst study proposed: Pearl Harbor, 1Q 2006

• Thesis product, LT Pat Sullivan USN• Work in progress

Related Work

Autonomous Undermanned Vehicle Workbench

AUV Workbench

Underwater, air, surface unmanned vehiclesBuild scientific tactical decision aid (TDA) that

includes full-fidelity physics of motion, collision, sensing• Rehearsal: mission planning• Reality: real-time tasking and monitoring• Replay: playback telemetry

Multiple sponsors & partnersOpen source, open standards, new techology

• Extensible 3D Graphics (X3D) for large worlds• XML, binary compression for GIG Web Services

REMUS mission search,

from above

REMUS mission search, from

behind

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions, Recommendations

Tool development is now mature enough to pursue combined modeling effort• Singapore: harbor, island, lines of approach• Straits of Malacca

Open standards, open source for interoperability• Access + sharing issues appear sensitive,

solvable

Collaborative efforts welcome

Don Brutzman

brutzman@nps.navy.mil http://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzman

Code USW/Br, Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey California 93943-5000 USA

1.831.656.2149 voice1.831.656.7599 fax

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