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Anita StreetOffice of Research and Development
Office of Science Policy
Unregulated Pollutants and Emerging Chemicals Workshop
October 25 – 26, 2005
Futures Analysis and Approaches to Integrated
Collaborative Problem-Solving
• 1,950 employees • $700 million budget• $100 million extramural
research grant program• 13 lab or research
facilities across the U.S.
• Credible, relevant and timely research results and technical support that inform EPA policy decisions
Research and Development
Making decisions with sound science requires.. Relevant, high quality, cutting-edge
research in human health, ecology, pollution control and prevention, economics and decision sciences
Proper characterization of scientific findings
Appropriate use of science in the decision process
Research and developmentcontribute uniquely to.. Health and ecological research, as well
as research in pollution prevention and new technology
In-house research and an external grants program
Problem-driven and core research
• Human Health
• Particulate Matter
• Drinking Water
• Clean Water
• Global Change
• Endocrine Disruptors
• Ecological Risk
• Pollution Prevention
• Homeland Security
High Priority Research Areas
Office of Science Policy
• Developing unified positions on the use of science in regulations and policies
• Manage futures program for ORD
• Coordinate implementation of EPA-wide science policy
Today’s Presentation
• “Futures 101” What it is and isn’t Methods Barriers
• How might futures be used in the context of unregulated or emerging pollutants?
• How can futures be used in the context of CPS?
The Illusion of Certainty
• "The phonograph is of no commercial value.“ - Thomas Edison, 1880
• “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in the home.“- Ken Olsen, President of Digital, 1977
• "Anyone who thinks the ANC is going to run South Africa is living in cloud cuckoo land."- Margaret Thatcher, 1987
What is Futures Analysis?
• An effort to anticipate and plan for future conditions and/or events. This allows organizations to plan strategically and position themselves for situations that may occur in the future.
• With respect to environmental protection, futures analysis involves identifying potential environmental problems before they become widespread or pose serious human health or ecological threats. This may help EPA more effectively prevent undesirable outcomes.
First Industrial Revolution EPA
Second Industrial Revolution
Adapt Shape
Atoms/Bits (Digital/physical Converge)
Fluid, mobile, interconnectedExponential change
AtomsIncremental changeScience of discovery
Different World/Different Challenges
Adapted from Rejeski, 2003
A Revolution in:
How things are made
And whether they are made
Where things are made
Rejeski, 2003
Common Futures Methods
• Scanning/lookout panels
• Trend extrapolation/modeling
• Scenario building
Scanning/Lookout Panels
• Systematic and continuous review of news about scientific, technological, sociological, and institutional developments.
• Assembling a group of individuals with expertise in relevant fields who can identify noteworthy trends.
Examples• ORD's scan to identify potential futures
issues and book Environmentalism & the Technologies of Tomorrow (Rejeski/Olson,2004)
• EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Environmental Futures Committee
……scanning scanning weak weak
signalssignals
• Conflict and Governance Conflict and Governance • Science and Technology Science and Technology • Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture and Food Security • Natural Resources and Environment Natural Resources and Environment • Energy Energy • Population, Education, and Human Population, Education, and Human
Welfare Welfare • Communications and Transportation Communications and Transportation • Regional and International Economics Regional and International Economics • Social and Cultural Issues Social and Cultural Issues
• NoveltyNovelty• Scope Scope • Severity Severity • Visibility Visibility • TimingTiming
• ProbabilityProbability
Self-healing Self-healing Infrastructure Infrastructure SystemsSystems
SummarySummary
RankingRanking
SourcesSources
DOMAINSDOMAINS
LEADSLEADS CRITERIACRITERIA
Trend Extrapolation/Modeling
• Projection of future conditions based on assessing past trends and extrapolating them by adjusting time-series variables.
• Trend extrapolation is accomplished using simple mathematical projections; modeling involves numerous variables and complex calculations.
Example:• Population growth and demographic change• Estimates of global climate change• Trends in manufacturing
2000= 100 MillionSource: US Census Bureau
282 Million
2010 309 Million
2020 336 Million
2030 364 Million
2040 392 Million
2050
Projected US Population: 2000-2050
420 Million
US Population Over 65
= 10 MillionSource: US Census Bureau
35 Million2000
201040 Million
202055 Million
203071 Million
2040 80 Million
205087 Million
HPV Chemicals Stats
• 3,300 chemicals out 70,000 used commercially in large quantities (excluding polymers) in U.S.
• 4.4 to 7.1 trillion pounds of HPV are produced/imported annually in the U.S.
• 450M lbs used annually worldwide. Growing 4% annually.
Scenario Building
• Qualitative projections of alternative future conditions based on variation in the interaction of key drivers of change
• Drivers include social, technological, economic, and institutional changes
• Scenarios range from very broad combinations of drivers that describe various world views to more specific stories about the impact of drivers on particular issues
Scenario Building
• Scenarios are tools for learning and focusing attention.
• They must be relevant to decision makers.
• Scenario efforts begin with an exploration of the goals and key assumptions of the organization.
• Tools include basic trend research and interviewing insiders and outsiders.
Drivers
• Drivers are forces that generate environmental and institutional stressors that can lead to adverse impacts on human health and ecological endpoints.
• EPA's SAB Environmental Futures Committee identified the following Population growth and urbanization Economic expansion/resource
consumption Technological development Changes in environmental attitudes
EPA Scenarios
• Formally established a “Futures Network”-- GBN training for 30 people from across the Agency
• Interviewed managers about “what kept them up at night” Worsening global environment Future relevance of EPA Future of public support for EPA
EPA Scenarios
High Social Cohesion
“A Soft “Eco-Efficiency
Landing” Revolution”
Low Growth High Growth “A Darker “Full Speed
Age” Ahead”
Low Social Cohesion
Strategic Conversation
Desirability Likelihood Severity
Eco- Efficiency
Revolution60% 23% 17%
Full Speed Ahead 6% 45% 32%
A Soft Landing 32% 17% 13%
A Darker Age 2% 15% 38%
“Full Speed Ahead” voted “most likely” --- thought to reflect current trends
……developing developing foresight toolsforesight tools
Pennsylvania Pennsylvania DEP’s Futures DEP’s Futures Planning Planning ProcessProcess
Where are future Where are future vulnerabilities vulnerabilities (the extent to which a system (the extent to which a system might be harmed by stressors)?might be harmed by stressors)?
...a systems’s sensitivity and adaptability...
...exposure to stress...
...and society’s valuation of the system.
VulnerabilityVulnerability
SpaceSpace TimeTime
Barriers to Futures
• Scientific: absence of basic data to adequately account for uncertainty
• Technical: inadequate tools to evaluate problems; lack of incentives to collect better information
• Institutional: unclear mandates or authority, lack of internal and external coordination, lack of vision or imagination, protectionism, skepticism
Futures and Emerging Chemicals
• Copper Scenario Model IPPC emission scenarios for GHG Analyzed future material intensity and
copper use from yr 2000 – 2100 Four world regions – 3 scenarios Statistically analyzed historical data Surveyed experts Quantified scenarios
Futures and Emerging Chemicals
Futures and Emerging Chemicals
• EPA/IBM Text Analytics Pilot Using HPV documents, identify
patterns or trends to discover insights about tox effects
Using HPV documents identify trends using patent data to determine where/how HPV chemicals are being used
Futures & Collaboration
•Public Understanding of Science (PUS)•Deficit to Dialogue•Upstream engagement
http://www.demos.co.uk/catalogue/paddlingupstream/
PublicInvolvement
(EPA decision,members ofthe public
involved voluntarily)
CollaborativeProblem Solving
(joint actionto solve
a problemthat no single
stakeholder can solve)
Neutral-Assisted Collaborative Problem Solving Involving the Public in EPA Decisions•Facilitated policy dialogues•Facilitated negotiated rulemaking
Neutral-Assisted Public Involvement•Facilitated public meetings•Facilitated workshops•Facilitated listening sessions•Facilitated conferences
CollaborativeProblem Solvingin Shared or OtherStakeholder-led Activities (unassisted)•Intra-agency partnerships•EPA-State co-regulator partnerships•Federal interagency partnerships•Public-private partnerships
Neutral-Assisted Collaborative Problem Solving in Shared or Other Stakeholder-led Activities•Facilitated partnerships•Facilitated intra-agency partnerships
Collaborative Problem Solving Involving the Public in EPA Decisions (unassisted)•Federal advisory committees•EPA-led “shuttle diplomacy” on rule/policy development
Neutral-Assisted Dispute Resolution•EPA facilitated Superfund allocation•Mediated settlement negotiations•Workplace mediation
Traditional Public Involvement Activities (unassisted)•Conferences•Workshops•Listening sessions•Public meetings•Public notice and comment
Alternative Dispute
Resolution(neutral third party)
U.S. EPAU.S. EPAConflict Prevention and Conflict Prevention and Resolution Center (CPRC)Resolution Center (CPRC)
Define/Understandthe Problem to be Solved
Gather informationnecessary to develop
options
Generate options
Select an option
Implement solution
Assess results
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CO
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OR
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Jointly Define/Understandthe Problem to be Solved
Jointly Gather informationnecessary to develop options
Jointlygenerate options
Jointlyselect an option
Jointlyimplement solution
Jointlyassess results
Futures & Collaboration
• Stakeholders can develop a collective vision of the future (scenarios, visioning)
• Shape the future and have a say in technological developments before it’s too late to change developmental trajectories
• Help understand the environmental effects of consumer consumption
• Who gets to decide?
Is it practical to view the world as unchanging?
Will changes be linear and incremental?
Can we shape the future before the future shapes us?
Thank You
Anita Street, M.P.HOffice of Research and Development
street.anita@epa.gov 202.564.3626
Visit our futures websites at:http://www.epa.gov/osp/efuture.htm (ORD)
http://www.epa.gov/cfo/futures/index.html (EPA-wide site)
IBM Pilot – Contact:Bob Kavlock at kavlock.robert@epa.gov
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