andrew mcjorrow - case study: strategic workforce planning at nz police
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Strategic Workforce Planning within a ‘Greenfields’ Policing Context
Andrew McJorrow Aotearoa New Zealand Police
Ngā Pirihimana o Aotearoa
The ATC Events / Kienco Strategic Workforce Planning Conference Melbourne 26-27 March 2014
Wellington 1-2 April Wellington 2014
Overview
• What makes NZ Police unique?
• Recognition of the need for SWP at NZ Police
• ‘Prevention First’
• The demographic cliff
• Desired SWP outcomes at NZ Police?
• Resources
• Questions & brief discussion
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1. What Makes Aotearoa New Zealand Police Unique?
Some Unique Characteristics
• Paramilitary
• Coercive force
• Subject to enormous scrutiny
• Politicised environment
• Very low corruption
• Government sets constabulary numbers
• Very highly unionised
• History and tradition are important
• Single point of entry
• Low attrition
• High internal churn
• ‘Age sensitive’ environment despite there being no compulsory retirement
• Data sets back to the 1800’s
• But beware of the rear view mirror trap!
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2. Recognition of the Need for SWP at Police
Drivers of SWP at NZ Police
Prevention First
Prevent crime Reduce demand
Reduce victimisation
Profoundly Changing Demographics
Gain visibility of and manage the
demographic cliff
Rapid Technological Change
New ways to commit, prevent, respond to
and investigate crime
For our business to be sustainable we must find a systematic method for understanding the capability needed to deliver on our strategy and respond adaptively
to changes in our operating environment, both now and in the future. That methodology is strategic workforce planning.
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ROW – Rest of World
Demographics – Aging, growing ethnic diversity, gender
Environment – Housing affordability, overcrowding etc
Government – Legislation, regulations
Economy – Rapid increase / decrease in GDP, income
inequality
Social – Evolving social norms and values
Technology – Rapid technological development (mobile
devices, social networks, hyper surveillance, internet of things,
etc)
Labour Market
Labour market activity
Labour market sentiment
Access to skills – size and quality of pipeline
Attitudes toward a career in policing (willingness to work
shift work, command and control environment, location etc)
Digital native & millennials – Changing attitudes toward
career
Organisation
Strategy - Prevention First, 'Turning of the Tide', Road
Policing strategy
Operating model – 12 Districts, service centres and PNHQ
Capacity - 8,907
Capability
Technology & Systems - iPads and iPhones, Transition to
Windows 8, PeopleSoft upgrade
Culture - COI, staff engagement, highly union membership
Financial - Living within baseline
Employees
Profile data
Demographic profile - gender, age, ethnicity
Geographical distribution
Employment status (full time, part time, contractor, casual)
Tenure / length of service
Capabilities
Trend data
Attrition / separation, departure information
Transfers / churn
TOIL
Overtime
Leave balances
Demand (Type of Work) Supply (Type of Worker)E
xte
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Inte
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3. ‘Prevention First’
Aotearoa New Zealand Police Strategy & Objectives
New Zealand Police Objectives
• 13% reduction in reported crime
• 19% drop in prosecutions
• Develop communities where people are safe and where they feel safe
• Delivered through: – Prevention First national operating strategy
– The Turning of the Tide Maori focused strategy
– Road Policing strategy
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‘Prevention First’
• How we gain control over the criminal environment
• Deploying to beat demand – Prevent crime and reduce demand
– Critical command information
– Tasking and coordination
• Understanding and responding to the drivers of crime
• Victim focus – Focus on victims reduces the likelihood of repeat victimisation and
future demands on Police
– Neighbourhood policing teams
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‘Prevention First’ and SWP
• What’s SWP telling us about the impacts of Prevention First?
• A more sophisticated and cerebral approach to policing
• Important implications for future capability – Understanding crime causality requires deductive reasoning skills
– A victim centric focus requires interpersonally skilled, empathetic officers
– Growing multiculturalism requires cultural adaptability and multilingual skills
• Emerging tension between mass deployability and specialisation needs
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4. The Demographic Cliff
Aging, Growing Ethnic Diversity and
Gender
“The police are the public and the public are the police”
Sir Robert Peel
Founder of the Metropolitan Police 1829
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Aotearoa New Zealand’s Aging Population
• Ratio of people under 15 years old to 65 year olds and older: o 1974 3.60 : 1
o 1993 2.02 : 1
o 2014 1.39 : 1
o 2024 1.05 : 1
o 2033 0.83 : 1
• Profound implications for: o Service demands
o Talent and labour supply
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Attrition from 1886 Onward … it takes a lot to move our Attrition Line
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% Sworn Losses Average Loss
GFC Springbok tour
Wool boom Great
depression WWI
Physical competence test
introduced WWII
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Aging Effects Over the Last Decade
• Age and experience tend to be linked (so some aging benefits)
• Sick leave increases with age (number of hours worked per FTE decreases as the workforce ages)
• Higher employment costs
• Over the last decade constabulary increased by 1,300…
• But constabulary aged < 40 years old decreased by almost 1,100 over the same period
• What’s SWP telling us about how aging is likely to play out at Police over the next 10 years?
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Aging and SWP
• Attrition rate doubles after the age of 55
• Response group – Younger so experience more modest aging impacts
• Road policing – Older so already experiencing higher attrition rates (that will continue to increase)
• Investigations group
– Rapid increase in attrition in the next 3 to 5 years
– 50% increase in attrition over the next decade
– 10 years to build a detective from scratch
• Average age will increase over the next 10 years and then the trend will reverse
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Nightmare Scenario
• Aging, it seems, is not without a sense of irony…
• Our aging population is forecast to reduce average constabulary age, experience and employment cost
• But there’s a nightmare scenario – Tsunami of retiring constabulary
– Millennials and digital natives with potentially negative perceptions of a police career
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Growing Ethnic Diversity
• Asians are the fastest growing group
• Auckland is the 7th most immigrant intensive city in the world
• Immigrants bring their cultures with them, including perceptions of Police
• Maori and Pacific Island communities over represented in offender and victim statistics
• Key risk - The demographic segments from which Police have traditionally recruited are shrinking and are less likely to have the background and skills we need
• We need constabulary ranks to be increasingly drawn from and reflect the communities they serve
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Gender
• The extent to which any group in the community is under represented is the extent to which our talent pipeline is constrained
• More female than male university graduates
• Historically, not a good news story for Police (Commission of Inquiry into Police Conduct 2007)…
• … But we’re getting better: – Women now comprise 18% of constabulary
– 50% increase over the last decade (total constabulary numbers increased by 20% over the same period)
– ≥ Senior Sergeant rank, only 5% female
– 2001 20% of RNZPC graduates were females versus 27% in 2013
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Review strategy
Futuring
Realign capability and mindsets to strategy Loss of experience and capability as workforce ages
Road Policing first then Investigations
How do we motivate an increasingly
multigenerational and ethnically
diverse workforce?
Capability
Engagement (Motivation) & Culture
Workforce segmentation
Environmental scan
Current state analysis
Execution & monitoring
Action planning
Gap analysis
Aging population Growing ethnic diversity
Women under represented Tightening labour market at least until 2016
Increasingly technologically rich environmentGrowing cognitive load
Millennials & digital natives attitudes toward career
How long can we continue to rely on our ‘traditional’ recruitment pools when these demographics are
shrinking relative to other groups in NZ?How long can we sustain a single point of entry to
deliver the increasingly diverse and specialised capabilities we need now and in the future?
How can we reliably identify those roles / individuals / groups / and capabilities that actually make the biggest
difference to Police performance?
Recruitment & selection
On-boarding Sustainable
PerformanceRetention
Current collective constrains direct
employer – employee relationship
Hard to fill locations
Age and Australian police headhunting
key drivers of attrition.
Attrition rate doubles past 55 years of age
4. Desired SWP Outcomes for Aotearoa New Zealand Police
Our SWP Programme
• Measure, understand and accurately forecast attrition
• Monitor and understand the labour market impacts on supply
– Quantity
– Quality
• Develop a ‘joined up’ Wing (recruit) management process
• Continuously improve data quality
• Pilot strategic workforce planning in a single district
• Scale up nationally
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A Successful SWP Programme at Police Will:
1. Deliver a standardised, accepted national workforce planning methodology
2. Provide a robust evidence base for our human resources strategy
3. Challenge conventional thinking around how we staff our workforce
4. Provide a practical way by which we create executive visibility and management of the threat to Police capability inherent within Aotearoa New Zealand’s rapidly changing demographics
5. Drive alignment of capability to strategy
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Lessons from Our Journey so far…
• It takes 1,000 conversations to build momentum
• National versus local versus really local considerations… – Crime and its prevention doesn’t happen at a national level
– But SWP has to work at a national and local level
• Service demands versus recorded crime – Focus on the front end of the pipe (calls for service, taskings etc)
• Data quality is a very big challenge (but don’t let it stop you)
• Careful use of buy in tactics – A standard ‘burning platform’ approach won’t always cut it in an
organisation where emergencies are its core business…
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Lessons from Our Journey so far…
• Segmentation – Critical roles a sensitive topic
– More likely to have critical teams / groups
– Counter intuitive, need to work backwards…
– Start with known job families and then allow the futuring process and discussion to throw a light on those areas that are most critical and important
– Not so much about hard to fill roles as it is about hard to fill locations
• Time & persistence – Rome wasn’t built in a day and neither is sustainable SWP
– It’s a hard but rewarding road…
– …Take your opportunities and victories where you can
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5. Resources
Websites
• Statistics New Zealand
• Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment - Jobs Online Reports
• ANZ Job Ads
• Shell future energy scenarios
• Shapingtomorrow.com
• Aruspex
• KPMG’s 10 steps to strategic workforce planning
• Gapminder
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Books
• Ward, Tripp, & Maki (2013). Positioned: Strategic Workforce Planning That Gets the Right Person in the Right Job.
• Jac Fitz-enz, (2010). The New HR Analytics: Predicting the Economic Value of Your Company’s Human Capital Investments.
• Smith, (2012). Strategic Workforce Planning: Guidance & Back-Up Plans.
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6. Questions and Discussion
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