america’s incredible, shrinking, aging, less ready, ever more expensive armed forces

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America’s Incredible, Shrinking, Aging, Less Ready, Ever More Expensive Armed Forces

AHS, Patuxent MD, August 2009

Winslow T. WheelerDirector, Straus Military Reform Project

Center for Defense Information winslowwheeler@msn.com

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Mis-Measuring the “Defense” Budget

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What Is the “Defense” Budget?

Category FY 2010(Request)

DOD (“Base”) 537.7War Funding 130“Atomic Energy Defense Activities” (DOE) 17.7“Defense Related Activities” (GSA, etc.) 7.4Total “National Defense” 692.8Homeland Security (DHS) 42.7Veterans Affairs (DVA) 105.8International Affairs 48.6Non-DOD Military Retirement 27.821% of Interest on the Debt 56.9Grand Total 974.6

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DOD Budget 1947-2010($Billions, 2009$)

Source: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

194719

5019

5319

5619

5919

6219

6519

6819

7119

7419

7719

8019

8319

8619

8919

9219

9519

9820

0120

0420

0720

1020

1320

1620

19

DoD Budget ($BN) Cold War Average

5

Mis-Measurement a la Conservatives(Pretend Spending Trend)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

% of GDP for DOD

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Mis-Measurement a la Liberals(The Spin)

DefenseAll Others

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Discretionary Appropriations

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Mis-Measurement a la Liberals(The Data)

Defense Spending v. Others

Defense

All Others

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

All Appropriations

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United States vs. the World ($ Billions)

762 736693

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

IISS 2008 SIPRI 2008 2008 National Defense

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US vs. China, Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea ($ Billions, 2009 Dollars)

12270

1.6 7.1 5

205.7

693

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

ChinaRussia

CubaIran

North Korea

All to the Left

National Defense 2008

Total Defense Spending per IISS 2008

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More Money Buys a Smaller Force

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Army Division Equivalents and Budget ($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)

Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008, Center of Military History, Historical Perspective on Force Structure Reductions 1946-1988, Washington, D.C. 1989, Department of Defense Annual Reports, and Department of Defense Appropriations Bill Reports from the

House Committee on Appropriations.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

2009

Army Division Equivalents

0

50

100

150

200

250

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

Army Budget ($Billions)

12

Navy Combat Ships and Budget ($Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)

Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1946

1956

1966

1976

1986

1996

2006

Active Navy Combat Ships

0

50

100

150

200

250

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

Navy Budget

13

Air Force Tactical Wings and Budget (Billions, FY 2009 Dollars)

Sources: National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2009, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) March 2008 and Air Force Historical Research Agency (Maxwell AFB) analysis, “Force Structure, United States Army Air Forces and United States Air Force.”

010203040506070

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

Active Air Force Tactical WingEquivalents

0

50

100

150

200

250

1946

1955

1964

1973

1982

1991

2000

Air Force Budget

14

DOD Budget & Active Duty Personnel(1947-2010)

($Billions, 2009 Dollars)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

DoD Budget ($BN ) Active Duty Personnel (x1,000) Linear (DoD Budget ($BN )) Linear (Active Duty Personnel (x1,000))

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More Money Buys LessProcurement of Air Force Fighter & Attack Aircraft

CBO Assessment of FY 2008 Defense Budget

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More Money Buys an Older Force

17

18

19

20

And, Less Ready

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Readiness

• Army Tank Miles: Down from 800 to 550

• Are units going to Iraq “ready?”

• Naval aviators getting 17 hours/month.

• Air Force is worse.

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More Capability?

• F-22 Example

– Puny Force at Gigantic Cost– Inadequate Resources for Pilot Skill– Major Aerodynamic Disappointment– How much “Stealth” & “Supercruise”?– Unproven BVR Hypothesis

• & Unexercised Antithesis

• The unaffordable F-35 is worse.

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The Prospects for Reform

• Lots of Lipstick

• Even More Talk

• One Notable Action

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Hopelessly Cosmetic Levin-McCain-Lynn Bill

• Cost Czar can’t dictate prices.

• Anti-Fly-before-Buy Provision.

• Interested contractors to continue analysis of DOD programs.

• Nothing on FM, or Oversight, or Pork

• Expect it to be as big a failure as Goldwater-Nichols.

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Talk Is Cheap

• “And if Congress sends me a bill loaded with that kind of waste [earmarks], I will veto it.” (BHO, Veterans of Foreign Wars, August 18, 2009)

• Bills loaded with $3 billion to $9 billion in pork.

• SAP gives green light to GE F-35 engine & more.

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Action Counts

• After a nasty, brutish and long fight, F-22 was ended.

• More big ticket fights needed.

• Hundreds of earmarks to be costed, studied, competed.