alternative global scenarios doom or boom?

ALTERNATIVE GLOBAL

SCENARIOSDOOM

OR BOOM?

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Increasing Instability

2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Increasing Instability

2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework

GlobalCollapse

CrisisBusiness as Usual

1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Increasing Instability

2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework

GlobalCollapse

CrisisBusiness as Usual

Voluntary orSpontaneousTransformation Post-

Physical GrowthEconomy

?

1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Increasing Instability

2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework

?GlobalCollapse

CrisisBusiness as Usual

Voluntary orSpontaneousTransformation Post-

Physical GrowthEconomy

?

1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Increasing Instability

2000 2005 2010 2015 202020202015201020052000Possible Timeframe

Hardin Tibbs

Global Scenario Framework

?GlobalCollapse

CrisisBusiness as Usual

Voluntary orSpontaneousTransformation Post-

Physical GrowthEconomy

?

1997

Tuesday, August 20, 13

8,000 B.C. 2100Tuesday, August 20, 13

Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100

Demand

1750Tuesday, August 20, 13

Supply

Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100

Demand

1750Tuesday, August 20, 13

2012

Supply

Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100

Demand

1750Tuesday, August 20, 13

2012

Supply

Improve Life8,000 B.C. 2100TRANSFORM ?

Demand

1750Tuesday, August 20, 13

Tuesday, August 20, 13

by 2050, if all 9 billion people on earth live at the same level of resource consumption as

you and I...

Tuesday, August 20, 13

by 2050, if all 9 billion people on earth live at the same level of resource consumption as

you and I...

it will require 3 to 4 planet earths to support them

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.

Also known as The Sixth Wave theory

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.

Also known as The Sixth Wave theory http://www.wired.com/business/2011/06/sixth-wave-of-innovation/

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.

Also known as The Sixth Wave theory http://www.wired.com/business/2011/06/sixth-wave-of-innovation/ http://sixthwave.org

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Looking out to 2050 there is much to learn from those who see the big patterns of technology and development since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution i.e.: Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Freeman and most recently the work of Carlota Perez.

Also known as The Sixth Wave theory http://www.wired.com/business/2011/06/sixth-wave-of-innovation/ http://sixthwave.org

An Alternative Scenario

Tuesday, August 20, 13

ProfessorCarlota Perez

Tuesday, August 20, 13

ProfessorCarlota Perez

REQUIRED READING

Tuesday, August 20, 13

ProfessorCarlota Perez

REQUIRED READING

we don’t need to transform

Tuesday, August 20, 13

ProfessorCarlota Perez

REQUIRED READING

we don’t need to transform

but we do need to transition

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

The Key ideas:

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society.

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.We are at the beginning of a period of deployment of new technologies and lifestyles which will radically change the world we live in.

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.We are at the beginning of a period of deployment of new technologies and lifestyles which will radically change the world we live in.

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

The Key ideas:Every 40-60 years there are regular historical patterns of diffusion and assimilation of technological revolutions in the economy and society. Each new era has been facilitated by enabling regulation, policies for widening the market and insuring social stability.We are at the beginning of a period of deployment of new technologies and lifestyles which will radically change the world we live in.

This is never a smooth process.

Global Long Wave Surge Theory

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Source: Perez, 2009

Five Great Surges of Development in 240 Years

Asia?

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Source: Perez, 2009

Five Great Surges of Development in 240 Years

Asia?

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Each Great Surge Consists of Two Periods

Source: Perez, 2009Tuesday, August 20, 13

Each Great Surge Consists of Two Periods

Source: Perez, 2009Tuesday, August 20, 13

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Redesign of financial architecture

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Redesign of financial architecture

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Redesign of financial architecture

Private, state and civil organizations as drivers and innovators... enable structural shift

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Redesign of financial architecture

Private, state and civil organizations as drivers and innovators... enable structural shift

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

An enormous technological potential for highly profitable innovation and expansion

Redesign of financial architecture

Private, state and civil organizations as drivers and innovators... enable structural shift

New plateau of sustainable global/local lifestyles

Lessons From Long Wave Trends

Source: Perez, 2009

Tuesday, August 20, 13

“My next big project is brakes”Tuesday, August 20, 13

“My next big project is brakes”

we innovatedour way into this

Tuesday, August 20, 13

“My next big project is brakes”

we innovatedour way into this

we can innovate our way out of it

Tuesday, August 20, 13

Surge Change

Tuesday, August 20, 13

A Golden Age of Innovation

Surge Change

Tuesday, August 20, 13