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Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada
Sam Gameda and Andy BootsmaAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Ottawa
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
CGCM1 Mean Temperature ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s
Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s
Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables (e.g. Temperature, Precipitation)
• How will these changes affect Agro-climatic indices?
• What are the potential impacts on crop production?
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Average Crop Heat UnitsCrop Heat Units (CHU)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDD)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Potential ACI changes:
Agro-climatic index
Increase under
Climate Change
CHU 500-700 units
EGDD ~ 400 units
Water Deficit 25-50 mm
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Implications for Atlantic Canada
Significant potential for Large-scale:
• expansion in corn and soybean areas
• Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals (e.g. barley)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Production scenario
Yield(t/ha)
Area(ha)
Production(‘000 tonnes)
Corn Present 5.6 2,300 13
2040-69 7.0 30,000 210
Soybeans Present 2.3 3,500 8
2040-69 3.0 20,000 60
Barley Present 3.0 55,000 165
2040-69 3.15 25,000 79
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Potential ACI changes:
Agro-climatic
Index
Current Under
Climate Change
CHU 3400-3700 >5200
GDD 1750-2250 2750-3500
GSS Early/Mid April Early/Late March
GSE Late Oct/Mid Nov Mid/Late Nov
GSL 180-225 days 210-270 days
Water Deficit Little change expected
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Implications for Quebec & Ontario
• Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for grain corn and soybean production will become suitable for these crops.
• Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and soybean production will be suited for longer-season hybrids, with potentially higher yields
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Some Considerations
• These findings are based on comparisons of current 30-year climate normals (averages) with those from an equivalent future 30-year period
• Significant changes in variability and extreme events are anticipated under climate change
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
(Source: CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000)
Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over Canada
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Summary
Likely consequences of climate change on agriculture in Eastern Canada:
• Significant increases in areas under corn and soybean in Atlantic Canada.
• Significant increase in yields of corn and soybean in Quebec and Ontario
• Expected increases in variability and extreme events could have significant impact on seasonal variability and risks to production
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