agri commodities monthly may final · 2013/14 on reduced cane and beet area corn coffee despite...
Post on 18-Jul-2020
3 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
May 2013 1
x+
Agri Commodity Markets Research (ACMR) AgriMarketsResearch@rabobank.com
+44 20 7664 9676
The transition from record tight old crop inventories to potentially the largest positive change in grain and oilseed stocks since 2009 is anticipated to result in short‐term elevated volatility and multi‐year low prices at harvest time.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS SOFTS
WHEAT SUGAR
Wheat forecasts lowered on increased global supply recovery and weak corn price outlook Increased Black Sea production and Indian export
potential bearish for prices Reduced supply in the US not enough to offset
large increase in global output in 2013/14
Nearby sugar prices are under pressure following a strong start to the Brazilian crush, with longer term support for prices
Ethanol production expected to absorb a greater proportion of the Brazilian cane crop in 2013/14
Growth in global ending stocks to slow in 2013/14 on reduced cane and beet area
CORN COFFEE Despite planting delays and lower yield expectations the corn market is set for a correction lower due to a large increase in supply Planting delays in the US may negatively impact
yield and total area, but a bearish 2013/14 harvest is still expected
Global corn ending stocks to recover 23% in 2013/14
Price outlook for both coffee varieties is positive Arabica is forecast higher on fewer Milds
available due to disease and reduced Brazilian selling
Robusta prices are expected higher to encourage Vietnamese farmers holding beans to sell
SOYBEANS COCOA Our Q2 price forecast is raised while lower prices expected by Q4 due to record US plantings Higher US plantings likely to allow prices to ease
by the end of 2013 Support provided by Chinese purchases
We maintain a bullish outlook for cocoa terminal prices Increased nearby price forecast based on lower
arrivals in West Africa and increased buying support from speculators
Consecutive deficit for 2013/14 season as production stays flat and grindings grow steadily
PALM OIL COTTON Nearby price forecast for palm oil is unchanged and above spot prices, deferred contract outlook reduced on reduced stocks Malaysian stock drawdowns are supportive of
prices Improvement in demand and slow increase in
production to support prices
The cotton market has weathered recent bearish announcements with considerable caution
Market’s reaction to increasing old crop stocks and subdued US export sales was largely muted
Speculative net length is still well above average, selloff expected in June
Agri Commodities Monthly
Bearish Weather
May 2013 2
The transition from record tight old crop inventories to potentially the largest positive change in grain and oilseed stocks since 2009 is anticipated to result in short‐term elevated volatility and multi‐year low prices in the medium term. The expectations for the move from scarcity to surplus is typified by the May USDA WASDE report, with very tight ending stocks expected for 2012/13 and record large global soybean, corn and wheat crops forecast in 2013/14. However, this is merely a paper surplus at the moment, and weather conditions remain a variable that could stymie potential. The bearish outlook on supply is impacting non‐commercial trading activity in US agri markets, with managed money increasing short exposure by 70% in the past 12 months, while index funds have pared back net long exposure by 19%. The managed money short position has been reduced in the past month due to planting delays, further selling can be anticipated once US crops are sown. Managed money selling ahead of harvest will likely be the catalyst to send prices below 2012 levels. Index fund positioning is difficult to foresee, but the net long position is only 3% above the 2012 low when bearish forecasts presaged a major drop in prices and before the US drought. However, the index fund position has the scope for further reductions given the performance of other markets; YOY the S&P 500 is up 28% while the S&P agri index is flat. Commodity markets are also being impacted by bearish macro impacts with a strong US dollar putting pressure on agri prices. Growth in US equity markets and improved expectations for the US economy have supported the dollar in the past month, which in turn results in falling dollar denominated agri markets. Concerns about easing commodity demand has impacted commodity based currencies, with the Australian dollar and Brazilian real falling against the US dollar by 6% and 2% respectively, in the past month. This dynamic may negatively impact US agri exports, shifting more demand to other origins but also encourages stronger farmer returns in locally denominated currencies.
OUTLOOK
Rabobank quarterly average price forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
The YOY change in global G&O ending stocks in 2013/14 is forecast by the USDA to be the largest since 2009/10
Open interest in the US agri markets has increased YOY for managed money on increased shorts and fallen for index funds
Source: USDA, Rabobank Source: Rabobank, CFTC, Bloomberg
Commodity unit Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
Wheat (CBOT) US¢/bu 641 871 846 739 700 630 610 610Wheat (Matif) EUR/t 212 259 264 245 220 195 190 190Corn US¢/bu 618 783 737 715 650 580 500 490Soybeans US¢/bu 1426 1677 1484 1450 1425 1275 1175 1225Palm oil MYR/t 3225 2884 2270 2400 2400 2450 2400 2500Sugar US¢/lb 21.2 21.0 19.7 18.4 17.2 17.5 18.0 19.0Coffee (ICE) US¢/lb 170 172 152 144 140 155 155 150Coffee (Liffe) US$/t 2065 2095 1961 2051 2025 2075 2075 2100Cocoa (ICE) US$/t 2222 2438 2421 2177 2350 2475 2475 2500Cocoa (Liffe) GBP/t 1492 1622 1550 1432 1525 1650 1650 1675Cotton US¢/lb 81 73 73 82 83 80 85 85
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Millio
n To
nnes
Grains Grains, Soybeans, Rapeseed
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan 07 Nov 07 Sep 08 Jul 09 May 10Mar 11 Jan 12 Nov 12
Ope
n In
tere
st T
hous
and
Con
trac
ts
Index Funds Managed Money S&P Agri Index (RHS)
May 2013 3
The outlook for new crop wheat prices has weakened amid a strengthening Northern Hemisphere supply recovery. Feed demand support in the wheat market due to high corn prices will likely erode in 2013/14, while increases in global wheat supply, notably in the Black Sea region, are likely to weaken prices in 2H 2013. Speculators have pared back shorts in US wheat markets since March, but as corn planting in the US nears completion, we anticipate short selling pressure to build again. Winter crop conditions in the US are at historic lows, but an increase in spring wheat will offset some reduction in output. In the short term, wheat prices will likely move based on crop conditions in the Black Sea region and indications about the US corn crop. In the medium term, we expect a better supply of corn and increased availability of exportable wheat in the EU and Black Sea region to push values to early 2012 levels. The USDA’s May WASDE report was within market expectations and painted a bearish outlook for 2013/14, with a 7% increase in global production more than offsetting an increase in expected demand. The forecast YOY increase in output was in part a function of a 47% jump in combined Russian, Ukrainian and Kazakh harvests on expanded area and better yields. In our view, this optimistic projection is too high; we expect the three nations will achieve a 42% recovery in output from last season’s drought. We forecasts a 38%, or 9 million tonne YOY, increase in exports and a bearish impact on global wheat prices. Despite some localised dry conditions in the Black Sea region, we do not think a material reduction in yield is justified at this stage. As Russia will likely be the low cost origin in the new season, our price forecast takes into consideration the Russian intervention price near USD 6/bu and the level Russian wheat would no longer be exported.
A rebound in Black Sea region wheat output will lead to an increase in exports and will pressure global wheat prices
Wheat market prices have fallen in 2013 and further weakness in the coming months is expected given average weather
Source: Rabobank, USDA Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Million Tonnes
Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine % Global Exports (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Aug 06 Nov 07 Feb 09 May 10 Aug 11 Nov 12
EUR/
Tonn
e
USc/
bu
CBOT KCBT Matif (RHS)
WHEAT
New crop CBOT Wheat price forecasts lowered
Wheat forecasts lowered on increased global supply recovery and weak corn price outlook Increased Black Sea production and
Indian export potential bearish for prices
Reduced supply in the US not enough to offset large increase in global output in 2013/14
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13(f) Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
CBOT US¢/bu 871 846 739 700 630 610 610
Matif EUR/t 259 264 245 220 195 190 190
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
USd
/ bu
shel
CBOT Wheat Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast
May 2013 4
The US wheat crop is forecast by the USDA to fall 9% YOY due to a lower HRW crop and the likelihood the USDA is overestimating domestic demand. The USDA reduced the domestic wheat feed use forecast for 2013/14, but the expectation is still 67% above the ten‐year average, and in our view not likely to be realised if corn supplies are increased near projections. We also view the expectations for lower than expected US wheat exports as high given the likelihood exports from the Black Sea region, Europe, Australia and even India will win more global market share due to lower prices. With less domestic wheat shipped or used as feed, we expect the USDA’s forecast for US wheat ending stocks to fall 8% to a four‐year low will be revised in the coming months. We have reduced our Matif Wheat price forecast on the expected increase in EU production and the plentiful Black Sea region supplies. The outlook for European wheat supplies is favourable, and we continue to anticipate that production will increase 7% YOY, while ending stocks will increase 53% in 2013/14. A build up of stocks is expected to be a function of exports falling due to lost market share in North Africa as a result of cheaper Black Sea region supplies. Front month Matif prices are 25% below the 2012 high, and we believe there is further scope for downside correction; we are targeting a support level of EUR 190/tonne average reached in 2H 2011. Matif Wheat’s nearby premium to CBOT is expected to fall in the coming year due to these dynamics. In the US wheat market, speculators have covered shorts in the past two months as planting delays and conditions increased concerns for new season supplies. However, given our supply outlook we expect increased selling as supply risks diminish. The managed money gross short position in the CBOT Wheat market fell 27% since mid‐March as US winter wheat conditions suggested reduced yield and falling YOY output. Corn planting delays have also spurred short covering in the wheat market. The CBOT Wheat managed money net position remains short 17,225 contracts off the March high of 50,000 contracts net short. We anticipate the net position will swing back near the 50,000 contract short level seen in March as the abundant supply of global wheat, reduced domestic demand and increased supply of corn all suggest the current curve is high. As the risk premium erodes approaching the main winter wheat harvests in June, and as the corn planting season ends, speculators will be looking to increase short exposure. Volatility in the US wheat markets has increased in the past six weeks, and as weather remains the key price mover it is likely to remain elevated for the next four weeks. The 50‐day historic volatility for the September CBOT Wheat contract increased 60% since the start of April to a level not seen since mid‐2012. Historic volatilities in the agri markets were at artificially low levels at the start of the year. In our view, multi‐year low volatility was more a function of increased financial liquidity into markets than a reflection of market fundamentals. The wheat deficit in 2012/13 was 24 million tonnes, the largest since 2003/04 and did not suggest falling volatility. As winter wheat harvests wrap up at the end of June and corn plantings begin by early June, volatility may plateau, and as global stocks are rebuilt further upside volatility risk seems reduced.
Winter wheat good/excellent conditions are at five‐year lows, and the US crop is expected to fall 7% YOY for 2013/14 as a result
Managed money net short position in the CBOT Wheat market has fallen in the past two months but is forecast to expand
Source: USDA ,Rabobank Source: CFTC, Rabobank
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
Perc
enta
ge o
f to
tal a
creage
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average2012 % Good/Excellent 2013 % Good/Excellent Condition
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun 10
Sep 10
Dec 10
Mar 11
Jun 11
Sep 11
Dec 11
Mar 12
Jun 12
Sep 12
Dec 12
Mar 13
Thou
sand
Con
trac
ts
Thou
snad
Con
trac
ts
Net Long Long Short
May 2013 5
The outlook for corn prices remains bearish, with prices expected to fall to their lowest levels since 2H 2010. The basis for our outlook for new crop price declines is based on a large production recovery and resultant surplus of supply. The tight US old crop corn situation is likely to play out in interior basis levels and cash markets, but flat price rallies remain a risk given the low inventories and large speculator short position. A risk premium and the need to constrain old crop consumption will limit downside price risk for the July CBOT Corn contract, and the old crop/new crop inverse is likely to remain at historic highs. The current planting delays will extend the old crop season, straining already low supplies and moderating the bearish impact for the September CBOT contract. Further destocking and reduced exports are likely for the US for 2012/13, assuming average weather for the new crop. For 2013/14, our forecasts suggest that while demand will rebound domestic ending stocks will more than double, and global supplies will be sufficient to push prices to our forecast for December; 4% below the current curve and 8% below year earlier levels. Prices for old crop futures contracts (July and to a lesser extent September) will need to ration demand as planting delays will pressure already tight supplies. The USDA forecasts 2012/13 domestic ending stocks at 759,000 bushels, or 24 days of annualised demand. With the most active harvesting period for the Corn Belt likely shifting later from the usual October period due to the delay in plantings, the market will have to incentive users to sell back old crop supplies and shift usage forward. We expect the July/December inverse will remain at record highs and that the September/December inverse will likely expand assuming normal agronomic development.
CORN
CBOT Corn price forecast lower for new crop
Despite planting delays and lower yield expectations; the corn market is set for a downward correction due to a large increase in supply Planting delays in the US may
negatively impact yield and total area, but a bearish 2013/14 harvest is still expected
Global corn ending stocks to recover 23% in 2013/14
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
The CBOT July/December inverse is expected to remain high due to tight old crop supplies and a large new crop forecast
US corn planting pace is below average, threatening yield potential and likley leading to a later harvest date
Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg Source: Rabobank, USDA, Bloomberg
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13(f) Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
Corn US¢/bu 783 737 715 650 580 500 490
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
USd
/ bu
shel
CBOT corn Previous forecast Rabobank forecast
-50
0
50
100
150
200
JUL-
DEC
Spre
ad
10 Yr. Range 2013 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Perc
enta
ge o
f tot
al a
crea
ge
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average 2012 Planted YTD 2013 Planted YTD
May 2013 6
In our view, the key bearish impact for the new season will be the increased global supply of corn and less need for US exports. The USDA forecasts 2013/14 US exports to increase 71% YOY from the lowest level since 1970/70. However the rebound is likely to be moderated by the increased supply of foreign corn, as well as other grains in the new season. The 2013/14 US corn export forecast is 29% below the ten‐year average. The US export share of global corn shipments will increase 12 percentage points YOY in 2013/14 to 35 %, but the ten‐year average is 53%. As US exports remain modest due to a 23 million tonne increase in foreign production, the domestic ending stocks are forecast by the USDA to increase 164% YOY. While the 2013/14 US corn production forecast will likely be revised lower in the coming months, we anticipate the expectations of a significant build up of domestic stocks to remain and this to further weigh on CBOT Corn prices. US corn ethanol production has strengthened in the past two months on improved margins, but further growth will be a challenge given tight old crop supplies. The recent increase in ethanol output prompted the USDA to increase the 2012/13 corn used for ethanol forecast by 50,000 bushels in the May WASDE, the second revision higher in as many months. However, ethanol output remains below the 2011/12 pace, and the USDA expects a YOY drop of 8%. Demand was reduced due to negative margins at the start of the 2012/13 season, a function of high corn prices. Our analysis suggests US ethanol net margins have turned positive, but are still thin and a strengthening corn price would likely turn them negative quickly. Given the profitability, we anticipated the increase in the 2012/13 forecast, but further growth in the current season is not possible without reducing feed consumption or exports. To reduce the feed use or exports, old season corn prices would have to rise further, which in turn would crimp ethanol margins and use. The USDA forecasts 2013/14 corn for ethanol use at 4.85 billion bushels, 5% above the current season but 5% below the preceding two seasons. With the blend wall of 10%, falling gasoline consumption is constricting the amount of corn ethanol that can be used in the domestic gasoline supply. Policy actions could alter the scenario and are an elevated risk in this situation. If margins remain positive in the new season, which is likely given lower corn prices, demand could expand through exports. Final US corn planted area and yield will likely not meet initial USDA forecasts, but a large crop is still expected. The USDA’s harvested area forecast of 89.5 million acres is at high risk of being revised lower in the next WASDE report due to planting delays moving area into other row crops or the prevent plant programme. Rabobank currently forecasts harvested area at 88 million acres and a yield of 157 bushels an acre. The USDA reduced its yield outlook 3% from the February outlook projection to 158 bushels an acre. Assuming average weather conditions for the summer and that a majority of the Corn Belt can be planted before the end of May, they are likely to make only modest revisions to this estimate. If the USDA reduces its area forecast by 3%,harvest area would fall to 87 million acres and the final crop, assuming the 158 bushels an acre yield, would slip to 13.7 billion bushels. Assuming current USDA 2013/14 consumption estimates, the reduced crop would result in domestic ending stocks of 1.58 billion bushels, up 108% from 2012/13 and the highest since 2009/10.
Ethanol production has risen in the past two months, but given tight old crop corn stocks, a drop in output is likely by season end
Rabobank forecasts an 88 million acre harvested area for the 2013 US corn crop, and a 13.9 billion final crop
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank, DOE Source: USDA, Rabobank
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Gal
lons
/wee
k
Production Last Year - Production
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
145 147 149 151 153 155 157 159 161 163 165
Prod
uctio
n in
Billi
on B
ushe
ls
Bu/Acre
82 Million Acres 88 Rabo 89.5 USDA
May 2013 7
Price outlook for soybeans is bearish but supported by strong biofuel and Chinese demand. Despite recent increases in near‐term contracts, fundamentals for soybeans continue to be bearish. The record large South American harvest has now been realised and exports have started flowing into world markets, while projections for US area and yield estimate a 12% increase in production for the new season. Risk remains on US production weather‐wise, particularly with the delays in corn planting. If US farmers are unable to realise their corn planting intentions, acreage will turn to soybeans, which can be planted well into June. This poses additional bearish risk for soybeans. Support for prices in 2H will come from US biodiesel demand and expectations for strong purchases from China. Biodiesel use in the US is expected to increase as a result of both the Renewable Fuel Standard—which allows a gallon of biodiesel to replace 1.5 gallons of the corn ethanol mandate—and the biodiesel tax credit. July futures may still see some upside before expiration, as a result of the tight old crop situation in the US. With delays in South American exports, the US soybean market has tightened further, widening the spread between old crop soybeans and new crop soybeans to over USD 2. After stronger than usual exports in the first quarter of the year, US exports fell by 53% in April and show little activity in May. The scarcity of soybeans has affected processors and crush margins, with April crushing below 3.5 million tonnes, an 8% decrease from last year. We expect prices for the July contract to continue to hover above USD 14.25/bu before falling in the third quarter as planting intentions materialise. Meanwhile, it seems likely that the US will need to import soybeans before its September harvest to relieve the domestic market.
The spread between July and November contracts increased to over USc 200/bu as a result of tightness in old crop stocks
South American exports picked up in April and May, compensating for the decline in US exports
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank Source: Bloomberg, USDA, Rabobank
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13
Usc
per
bush
el
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Mill
ion tonnes
USA Brazil & Arg
SOYBEANS
Nearby CBOT Soybean price forecast adjusted modestly
Our Q2 price forecast is raised while lower prices expected by Q4 due to record US plantings Higher US plantings likely to allow
prices to ease by the end of 2013 Support provided by Chinese purchases
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
Soybeans US¢/bu 1677 1484 1450 1425 1275 1175 1225
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
USd
/ bu
shel
CBOT Soybeans Previous forecast Rabobank forecast
May 2013 8
South American exports picked up their pace in April and May. After a slow start to the South American season due to delays in Brazil’s transportation facilities and Argentina’s slow pace of farmer selling, exports have increased markedly in April and May. Due to a change in regulation, some of the major ports in Brazil have started working 24 hours as of mid‐April. Although waiting times at port are still high, exports in April were 7.15 million tonnes, up 61% from last year. May is also expected to show record exports, at approximately 7.6 million tonnes. In Argentina, about 90% of the soybean crop has been harvested, cementing estimates of a 49 million tonne final production. Farmer selling continues to be slow due to the prevailing exchange rate restrictions and the fast devaluation of the peso. In May, the spread between the official and the parallel ‘blue’ exchange rate reached a record level of over 100%. Only 35% of the harvest has been sold so far, in comparison to 60% at this time last year. Despite the slow selling, both exports and the crushing industry gained momentum in the past month. Exports from both countries in April‐May will reach 3.15 million tonnes, 64% above year ago levels, offsetting the decline in US soybean exports. Market attention is turning to US planting progress and new crop expectations. The USDA released its global balance sheets for 2013/14 on May 20th, forecasting a global increase in soybean production of 16 million tonnes, or a 6% increase with respect to last year. Most of this increase comes from an expected 10.2 million tonne growth in US production as a result of improved yields. Our estimate for soybean acreage is at 78.2 million acres. Assuming trend yields, our final estimate for US production is 91.3 million tonnes, barely 1 % lower than the USDA’s estimate. However, it is still early in the season, and risks to the upside and downside exist. Drier weather in the past week has allowed substantial progress in US corn planting, currently at 71%, and the remaining ten days remain critical. If corn planting intentions are not fully realised by the end of May, some acreage may turn to soybeans. Given the tightness of the current US soybean situation, there is little cushion for crop losses, and any weather disturbance during the season can send prices for soybeans higher than we are presently expecting. The strongest price support will come from Chinese demand, which is likely to pick up with higher global availability and reduced prices. Domestic production in China is expected to be 5% lower than the previous year, and domestic stocks are low after a lull in purchases during the first four months of the year. Also, demand for soymeal seems to be unabated by the recent outbreaks of avian flu. The China National Grains and Oils Centre has recently announced projected imports for 2013/14 at 66 million tonnes. Although this number is lower than the USDA’s 69 million tonne estimate, it is still up 11.9% from last year. This increase would be almost enough to offset the increase in production in the main exporting countries, meaning that global stocks, while replenished, are not expected to be ample by any extent, and any unexpected shock to production can alter our forecasts.
Chinese imports have been at record low levels, and a strong re‐stocking is expected in the coming months
US soybean area harvested is expected to be record high in 2013/14, with yields up 4.9 bu/acre YOY to 44.5 bu/acre
Source: USDA, GTIS, Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Millio
n t
onnes
12/13f 11/12 5yr average
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
MIllio
n h
ect
are
s
Millio
n T
onnes
Production Area harvested (RHS)
May 2013 9
Reduced stock levels in Malaysia are likely to support MDEX Palm Oil prices above MYR 2,300/tonne for the
remainder of Q2. Malaysian stocks fell below 2 million tonnes for the first time in the past nine months,
dropping 11% to 1.92 million tonnes in April. While this is the fourth consecutive monthly decline, stocks are
still 4% above year ago levels, and further drawdown will be needed to provide stronger upward support to
prices. Slower export pace in the early part of Q2 weighed on prices. However, we expect a recovery in exports
over the coming months, which will likely place further downward pressure on stock levels and support prices.
Slower increases in production coupled with a stronger export outlook is expected to support prices in Q2
and early Q3. Indian palm oil imports declined in April by 28% MOM. However, exports to India are expected to
pick up slowly in the coming months despite imports being 26% higher MYTD. We expect Indian imports in the
coming months to stay within the five‐year historical range. China’s palm oil import are also up by 12.8% in the
first half of the marketing year 2012/13. A surge in Chinese palm imports in the first half of the year are
expected to moderate demand and keep imports range bound for rest of the marketing year. The onset of the
key festival season from July is expected to maintain buying interest from consuming nations. However, the
higher stock levels in key consuming countries, such as India and China, would limit the upside in prices.
Indian palm oil imports expected to pick up in coming months after the decline in April
Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell 11% MOM in April but remained 4% above year‐ago levels
Source: Bloomberg, MPOB, Rabobank Source: USDA, Rabobank
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thousand t
onnes
5yr range 5yr avg 12/13 Rabobank Forecast
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Milli
on t
onne
s
5yr range 5yr avg 11/12 12/13
PALM OIL
MDEX Palm oil price forecast unchanged for nearby contracts
Nearby price forecast for palm oil is unchanged and above spot prices, deferred contract outlook reduced Malaysian stock drawdowns are
supportive of prices Improvement in demand and slow
increase in production to support prices
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
Palm Oil MYR/t 2884 2270 2400 2400 2450 2400 2500
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
MYR
/ t
onne
MDEX Palm Oil Previous forecast Rabobank forecast
May 2013 10
Weather is in the driving seat of the sugar market, and while we consider that the market is approaching a turning point, trade is likely to maintain a narrow range. Favourable conditions during the Brazilian Centre/South harvest to‐date have supported cane volumes and ATR levels, which are at the highest rate since 2010/11. This has boosted both sugar and ethanol production rates early in the season and is pressuring nearby prices. The typical seasonality of ethanol prices suggests that they will be at their lowest in May/June/July and should rise in 2H of the year, raising the sugar/ethanol equivalence point. We expect that 54% of the Centre/South harvest of 585 million tonnes of sugarcane in 2013/14 will be converted to ethanol, largely absorbing the 9% growth in the crop YOY. Raw sugar futures are expected to continue trading within a narrow range, and the hydrous ethanol arbitrage and weather risks should limit downside price movements throughout the remainder of Q2. Index traders have built their net long position to over 56,000 contracts, the longest level since February 2013, and price levels are supportive of more buying. Meanwhile, managed money is eroding its net short position in the ICE #11, and we view these factors as supportive for the market from current levels, particularly for the remainder of Q2 2013.
The growth of global sugar ending stocks is expected to slow in 2013/14 for the first time in four years, increasing 1% YOY or 650,000 tonnes. Our preliminary view of global S&Ds is for record 2013/14 sugar consumption of 173.5 million tonnes, up 2% YOY, while production is expected to contract 7 million tonnes on a 23% reduction in the ICE #11 YOY. This scenario is supportive of sugar prices in 2H 2013, and 2014 is driving our current price forecasts which are above the curve. China’s sugar consumption is expected to grow 5% YOY to 16.3 million tonnes, while Russian beet area will contract, curbing production by 12.5% YOY. Indian consumption is expected to exceed production by 1.6 million tonnes, driving a draw down in stocks. However, another drier‐than‐normal monsoon may well encourage imports, and this could drive prices above our current forecast.
Cane volume used in ethanol production has been weaker than anticipated—upside expected from current levels
Favourable harvest conditions throughout Brazil have accelerated sugar and ethanol production
Source: UNICA, Rabobank Source: NOAA, Rabobank
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% c
ane
used
for
eth
anol
pro
duct
ion
11/12 12/13 13/14
SUGAR
Sugar forecast has been adjusted lower
Nearby sugar prices are under pressure following a strong start to the Brazilian crush Ethanol production expected to absorb
a greater proportion of the Brazilian cane crop in 2013/14
Growth in global ending stocks to slow in 2013/14 on reduced cane and beet area
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
Sugar US¢/lb 21.0 19.7 18.4 17.2 17.5 18.0 19.0
7
12
17
22
27
32
USd
/ po
und
ICE No. 11 sugar Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast
May 2013 11
COFFEE
Robusta price forecasts lowered
Price outlook for both coffee varieties is positive Arabica is forecast higher on fewer
Milds available due to disease and reduced Brazilian selling
Higher Robusta prices are expected to encourage Vietnamese farmer selling
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
We anticipate Arabica prices will break out of recent trading range in the coming quarter on reduced Central American supply and falling certified stocks. A key factor in the coming quarter is the Brazilian harvest, which we forecast at 53 million bags, the largest off season crop. While the increased supply from a fundamental view is bearish, the policy impacts offered by the Brazilian government are expected to reduce price impacts. Brazilian farmers are likely to hold supply off the market if prices remain depressed. This expected reduced farmer selling in Brazil, coupled with a 15% reduction in Central American supply YOY due to rust disease will support the NY market. With less selling of Arabica, certified stocks are likely to be drawn down in the coming quarter, tempering a bearish supply outlook. Robusta prices are expected to increase in order to encourage farmers to sell stocks. Vietnamese farmers are likely holding significant supplies on farm, and as London prices have fallen exports have dropped. April exports from Vietnam fell 26% YOY. Lower inventories in bonded warehouses in Vietnam, and stable but relatively low amounts in Liffe certified stocks in the past month, suggest exports will have to increase in the next quarter. This will likely require higher prices in London. Selling pressure from speculators in the coffee markets will likely be moderate in 2H 2013 due to production risks in Brazil and disease in Central America. The managed money gross short position in the NY market has fallen 47% in the past eight weeks as speculators took bearish bets off ahead of the Brazilian frost season and concerns about Roya increased. As weather risk is eroded for the Brazilian harvest, the net short is likely to expand, but concerns about the Central American supply may temper selling enthusiasm.
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
ICE US¢/lb 172 152 144 140 155 155 150
Liffe US$/t 2095 1961 2051 2025 2075 2075 2100
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
USd
/ po
und
ICE NY coffee Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast
Vietnamese exports in April were at a five‐year low as falling London prices prompted farmers to hold back beans
Arabica prices have continued to find support in the low USc 130/lb level first reached in December 2012
Source: Rabobank, Anacafe Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg, Liffe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mill
ion 6
0 k
g B
ags
12/13 11/12 Five Year Average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sep 11
Nov 11
Jan 12
Mar 12
May 12
Jul 12 Sep 12
Nov 12
Jan 13
Mar 13
May13
USc/
lb
London NY Arbitrage
May 2013 12
Our cocoa price outlook remains bullish and our price forecast for the nearby has been slightly increased for Q2 2013, reflecting tightening fundamentals for old and new crop and further speculator buying. Based on recent data, we have reduced our forecasts for production in West Africa, which in turn has increased our forecast global deficit for 2012/13. Speculators have shown increasing interest in the cocoa market and have been covering their short positions and building up their long position in both New York and London. This has resulted in a net long position on ICE of 45,276 contracts, which is the highest net long position since 2007/08 and is 52% higher than the YTD average. In London the net long managed money position increased to 42,068, which is 23% higher than the YTD average. In addition, speculators may buy as cocoa remains undervalued relative to other agricultural commodities, which is demonstrated by a comparison of the normalised ICE bean price with the S&P agri index as of 2009. We expect global production to stay flat given average weather conditions and grindings to grow modestly for the next crop year, leading to a global deficit in 2013/14 of 75,000 tonnes compared to an earlier deficit in 2012/13 of 58,000 tonnes. The production outlook in West Africa remains neutral, while in Asia, output is affected by deterioration of Indonesian crops caused by poor yields, diseases and competition from substitution crops. Lower farmgate prices during the last season have not been supportive of farmer input use and may negatively impact yields in the next season. Overall, the global deficit will translate into a stocks‐to‐use ratio of 41%, compared to 44% in 2012/13. We expect grindings to grow modestly in 2013/14 following the ten‐year moving average of 2.4%, resulting in a total global demand of 4.05 million tonnes. A key factor in this case is improving processing margins on the back of increasing butter ratios and stabilised powder ratios.
The stocks/grindings ratio is predicted to fall for the second consecutive season in 2013/14
Cocoa prices remain undervalued with bean prices being relatively low compared to other agricultural commodities
Source: Rabobank, ECA Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Surplus/Deficit Stocks/Grindings (RHS)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
ICE Cocoa Liffe Cocoa SPGSAG Index
COCOA
Our cocoa price forecast has been lifted modestly
We maintain a bullish outlook for cocoa terminal prices Increased nearby price forecast
based on lower arrivals in West Africa and increased buying support from speculators
Consecutive deficit for 2013/14 season as production stays flat and grindings grow steadily
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
ICE US$/t 2438 2421 2177 2350 2475 2475 2500
Liffe UK£/t 1622 1550 1432 1525 1650 1650 1675
1500
1900
2300
2700
3100
3500
USD
/ tonne
ICE NY cocoa Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast
May 2013 13
Nearby cotton futures remain have eased in line with our view, and the market has weathered recent bearish announcements with considerable caution. Supply and demand fundamentals are looking increasingly bearish across the short and medium term, despite an expected reduction in 2013/14 exportable supplies. Old crop global ending stocks increased 3% in the USDA’s May WASDE, and US export sales declined to 73,984 million bales in mid‐May—the lowest level since October 2012. However, the market’s reaction was largely muted, until China’s April imports dropped 19% MOM, as the Chinese Government’s reserve purchase program typically draws to an end in March. Speculative net length is still around 37,000 lots above average levels, and we expect a speculative led selloff to pressure prices in June, prior to the roll of the July contract. The futures curve shifted only modestly lower following a particularly bearish May WASDE, with global production estimates at 5 million bales above trade expectations. However, US plantings continue to trail the five‐year average despite a recent pick up, and are supporting December 2013 prices to a degree.
Our central view is for global cotton acreage to ease 9% YOY in 2013/14 to 30.9 million hectares. However, Southern Hemisphere cotton acreage could come in larger than anticipated if Northern Hemisphere corn and soybean production reach our expectations in 2013/14 and pressure prices. The March 2014 price ratios of cotton (USC 84.8/lb) to soy (USc 1,237/bu) and cotton to corn (USc 533/bu) are currently supportive of annual growth in Southern Hemisphere cotton acreage at current price levels. However, delayed US corn plantings may limit corn yields, potentially increasing the new crop corn premium, and encouraging Brazilians to plant additional acres to corn over cotton. The Southern Hemisphere cotton crop plays an increasingly important role in the global cotton market as it is available at the beginning of the Chinese National Cotton Reserve’s procurement window—from September to March. China currently accounts for near 40% of global cotton imports and controls around half of the global cotton supply. We expect cotton prices to average USc 85/lb in Q4 2013. However, further upside is not out of the question yet.
Speculative net length is well above average levels, despite record global ending stocks
New crop Southern Hemisphere acres dependant on a record global corn crop to strengthen cotton price margins
Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg Source: Rabobank, Bloomberg
0
50
100
150
200
250
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
USc/
lb
Thou
sand
con
trac
ts
Speculators Average spec length ICE Cotton (RHS)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Pric
e ra
tio M
arch
201
4 co
ntra
cts
ICE cotton to CBOT Soy ICE cotton to CBOT Corn
COTTON
Cotton price forecast is maintained
The cotton market has weathered recent bearish announcements with considerable caution Market’s reaction to increasing old crop
stocks and subdued US export sales was largely muted
Speculative net length is still well above average, selloff expected in June
Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank
unit Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13(f) Q3'13(f) Q4'13(f) Q1'14(f)
Cotton US¢/lb 72.8 72.8 82.4 83.0 80.0 85.0 85.0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
USc
/ po
und
ICE NY No. 2 cotton Previous Forecast Rabobank Forecast
5-yr-average
5-yr-average
May 2013 14
Monthly Chart Pack
May 2013 15
Global Corn Supply & Demand
(1000 Ha/1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 110,618 131,649 147,679 145,969 128,114 136,714 126,796 136,714 129,919
Area Harvested 160,570 158,833 158,664 163,781 169,676 173,076 177,748 174,409 176,940
Yield 4.95 5.04 5.19 5.08 5.22 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.5
Production 794,578 800,640 824,168 831,679 885,403 840,615 953,514 857,119 965,939
Imports 98,276 82,559 89,795 92,387 100,806 99,565 103,580 96,565 98,680
Total Supply 1,003,472 1,014,848 1,061,642 1,070,035 1,114,323 1,076,894 1,183,890 1,090,398 1,194,538
Exports 98,632 84,458 96,850 91,473 114,528 87,836 102,581 89,031 104,622
Feed Consumption 498,304 481,505 490,228 501,114 506,093 512,951 547,358 518,350 561,671
FSI Consumption 274,887 301,206 328,595 349,334 356,988 349,311 372,288 353,098 369,123
Total Consumption 773,191 782,711 818,823 850,448 863,081 862,262 919,646 871,448 930,794
Total Usage 871,823 867,169 915,673 941,921 977,609 950,098 1,022,228 960,479 1,035,416
Surplus Deficit 21,387 17,929 5,345 ‐18,769 22,322 ‐21,647 33,868 ‐14,329 35,145
Ending Stocks 131,649 147,679 145,969 128,114 136,714 126,796 161,662 129,919 159,122
Stocks/Usage 17.0% 18.9% 17.8% 15.1% 15.8% 15% 18% 14.9% 17.1%
Global Wheat Supply & Demand
(1000 Ha/1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 134,271 128,820 168,673 201,688 199,208 199,468 166,515 199,468 180,168
Area Harvested 217,014 224,136 225,183 217,058 221,287 218,305 222,863 215,902 223,611
Yield 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1
Production 612,430 683,659 686,743 652,285 697,173 639,372 694,244 655,637 701,099
Imports 113,594 138,010 133,867 132,113 148,684 144,339 143,735 141,967 140,433
Total Supply 860,295 950,489 989,283 986,086 1,045,065 983,179 1,004,495 997,072 1,021,700
Exports 117,047 144,696 137,123 133,219 157,791 133,112 142,877 137,381 143,324
Feed Consumption 102,655 121,301 120,713 115,821 145,962 136,130 128,790 130,203 136,488
FSI Consumption 511,773 515,819 529,759 537,838 541,844 547,421 551,714 549,320 555,506
Total Consumption 614,428 637,120 650,472 653,659 687,806 683,551 680,504 679,523 691,994
Total Usage 731,475 781,816 787,595 786,878 845,597 816,664 823,382 816,904 835,318
Surplus Deficit ‐1,998 46,539 36,271 ‐1,374 9,367 ‐44,180 13,740 ‐23,886 9,105
Ending Stocks 128,820 168,673 201,688 199,208 199,468 166,515 181,113 180,168 186,382
Stocks/Usage 17.6% 21.6% 25.6% 25.3% 23.6% 20.4% 22.0% 22.1% 22.3%
Source: USDA, Rabobank
USDA
Global Agri Commodity Balance Sheets
USDARabobank
Rabobank
May 2013 16
Global Soybean Supply & Demand
(1000 Ha/1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 62,636 52,279 43,350 60,808 70,124 54,711 55,234 54,711 62,457
Area Harvested 90,641 96,319 102,250 103,176 102,773 108,617 110,557 108,506 110,286
Yield 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6
Production 219,552 211,602 260,403 263,924 239,459 263,550 277,219 269,106 285,504
Imports 78,349 77,395 86,853 88,729 93,221 94,652 101,905 93,587 104,292
Total Supply 360,537 341,276 390,606 413,461 402,804 412,913 434,358 417,404 452,253
Exports 78,665 76,877 92,033 91,657 91,936 97,394 103,285 96,210 107,122
Crush 202,178 193,112 209,116 221,260 226,783 230,285 238,061 229,288 239,209
Seed/Feed/Residual 27,415 27,937 28,649 30,420 29,374 30,001 30,675 29,449 30,967
Total Consumption 229,593 221,049 237,765 251,680 256,157 260,286 268,737 258,737 270,176
Total Usage 308,258 297,926 329,798 343,337 348,093 357,679 372,022 354,947 377,298
Surplus/Deficit ‐10,357 ‐8,929 17,458 9,316 ‐15,413 523 7,103 7,746 12,498
Ending Stocks 52,279 43,350 60,808 70,124 54,711 55,234 62,337 62,457 74,955
Stocks/Usage 22.8% 19.6% 25.6% 27.9% 21.4% 21.2% 23.2% 24.1% 27.7%
Global Palm Oil Supply & Demand
(1000 Mt) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 4,681 4,059 4,817 5,436 5,652 6,714 8,258 6,714 7,921
Production 41,093 44,054 45,881 48,678 51,855 55,791 58,264 55,291 58,073
Imports 30,725 34,115 35,213 36,293 38,736 40,544 42,481 40,950 42,165
Total Supply 76,499 82,228 85,911 90,407 96,243 103,049 109,003 102,955 108,159
Exports 32,201 34,706 35,512 36,881 39,034 41,214 43,620 41,603 42,785
Food Consumption 30,113 31,701 33,275 34,783 36,303 38,589 39,834 38,549 40,216
Industrial 9,380 10,240 10,874 12,192 13,471 14,088 14,696 14,083 14,758
Feed 746 764 814 899 721 900 1,598 799 811
Total Consumption 40,239 42,705 44,963 47,874 50,495 53,577 56,127 53,431 55,785
Total Usage 72,440 77,411 80,475 84,755 89,529 94,791 99,747 95,034 98,570
Surplus Deficit ‐622 758 619 216 1,062 1,544 998 1,207 1,668
Ending Stocks 4,059 4,817 5,436 5,652 6,714 8,258 9,256 7,921 9,589
Stocks/Usage 10.1% 11.3% 12.1% 11.8% 13.3% 15.4% 16.5% 14.8% 17.2%
Source: USDA, Rabobank
USDA
Rabobank
Rabobank
Global Agri Commodity Balance Sheets
USDA
May 2013 17
Global Cotton Supply & Demand
(1000 Ha/1000 480lb Bales ) 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 61,843 61,542 46,655 49,444 71,223 80,807 71,223 80,807
Area Harvested 30,568 30,133 33,463 35,721 34,075 30,968 34,305 30,968
Yield 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6
Production 107,244 102,158 116,331 125,141 121,025 112,443 120,947 112,443
Imports 30,477 36,652 35,912 45,071 41,021 32,000 45,210 32,000
Total Supply 199,564 200,352 198,898 219,656 233,269 225,250 237,380 225,250
Exports 30,303 35,562 35,489 45,868 42,433 32,000 45,008 32,000
Loss ‐2,171 ‐807 ‐389 ‐745 1,412 0 ‐556 0
Use 110,032 118,942 114,354 103,310 108,617 110,916 108,150 110,916
Total Domestic Use 107,861 118,135 113,965 102,565 110,029 110,916 107,594 110,916
Total Usage 138,164 153,697 149,454 148,433 152,462 142,916 152,602 142,916
Surplus/Deficit ‐2,788 ‐16,784 1,977 21,831 12,408 1,527 12,797 1,527
Ending Stocks 61,400 46,655 49,444 71,223 80,807 82,334 84,778 82,334
Stocks/Usage 56% 39% 43% 69% 74% 74% 78% 74%
Global Coffee Supply & Demand
(1000 60 kg bags) 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 43,095 45,948 34,222 37,989 32,075 36,319 35,245 39,262
Arabica Production 82,197 73,124 82,840 74,512 86,158 78,749 85,766 80,414
Robusta Production 50,067 47,763 53,462 53,817 55,651 60,789 61,651 64,251
Total Output 132,264 120,887 136,302 128,329 141,809 139,538 147,417 144,665
Imports 97,018 97,198 96,931 93,800 105,000 110,000 108,000 112,000
Total Supply 272,377 264,033 267,455 260,118 278,884 285,858 290,662 295,927
Exports 98,000 97,844 97,303 93,000 105,000 110,000 108,000 112,000
Soluble Use 15,400 16,500 15,185 16,500 17,400 18,100 20,100 20,100
Use 113,029 115,467 116,978 118,543 120,165 122,513 123,300 126,926
Total Consumption 128,429 131,967 132,163 135,043 137,565 140,613 143,400 147,026
Total Usage 226,429 229,811 229,466 228,043 242,565 250,613 251,400 259,026
Surplus/Deficit 3,835 ‐11,080 4,139 ‐6,714 4,244 ‐1,075 4,017 ‐2,361
Ending Stocks 45,948 34,222 37,989 32,075 36,319 35,245 39,262 36,901
Stocks/Usage 36% 26% 29% 24% 26% 25% 27% 25%
Global Sugar Supply & Demand (1000 Mt) 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14 (f)
Beginning Stocks 59,023 67,344 68,271 55,575 52,973 55,889 63,707 72,454
Production 166,444 166,563 151,292 160,548 166,821 176,868 182,905 175,874
Imports 46,668 45,380 47,750 54,596 52,705 51,444 52,794 55,248
Total Supply 272,135 279,287 267,313 270,719 272,500 284,201 299,406 303,577
Exports 51,303 50,770 50,811 56,543 55,138 54,206 57,506 56,930
Consumption 153,488 160,246 160,927 161,203 161,473 166,288 169,445 173,542
Total Usage 204,791 211,016 211,738 217,745 216,611 220,494 226,951 230,472
Surplus/Deficit 8,321 927 ‐12,696 ‐2,602 2,915 7,819 8,747 651
Ending Stocks 67,344 68,271 55,575 52,973 55,889 63,707 72,454 73,105
Stocks/Usage 44% 43% 35% 33% 35% 38% 43% 42%
Global Cocoa Supply & Demand
(1000 Tonnes) 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Production 3,400 3,694 3,542 3,550 4,230 4,001 3,992 4,074
Ivory Coast 1,229 1,382 1,222 1,245 1,500 1,475 1,590 1,600
Ghana 614 711 680 620 1,025 879 780 820
Grindings 3,700 3,771 3,519 3,715 3,920 3,916 4,050 4,149
Surplus/Deficit ‐300 ‐77 23 ‐165 310 85 ‐58 ‐75
Ending Stocks 1,645 1,584 1,607 1,442 1,752 1,837 1,780 1,705
Stocks to Use 44% 42% 46% 39% 45% 47% 44% 41%
Source: Rabobank, ICCO, USDA
Rabobank
Rabobank
Rabobank
Global Agri Commodity Balance Sheets
Rabobank USDA
May 2013 18
US Corn Supply & Demand
(Mln acres/Mln bu.) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 736 989 759
Area Harvested 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84 87.4 88.8 87.4 89.5
Yield 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147 123.4 157.0 123.4 158.0
Production 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,782 13,941 10,780 14,140
Imports 20 14 8 28 29 125 20 125 25
Total Supply 14,361 13,729 14,773 14,182 13,516 11,896 14,698 11,894 14,924
Exports 2,437 1,849 1,980 1,834 1,543 825 1,500 750 1,300
Feed Consumption 5,858 5,182 5,125 4,795 4,547 4,350 4,850 4,400 5,325
FSI Consumption 4,442 5,025 5,961 6,425 6,439 5,985 6,635 5,985 6,295
Ethanol Usage 3,049 3,709 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,550 5,200 4,550 4,850
Total Consumption 10,300 10,207 11,086 11,220 10,986 10,335 11,485 10,385 11,620
Total Usage 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,529 11,160 12,985 11,135 12,920
Ending Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 987 736 1,713 759 2,004
Stocks/Usage 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 0 6.6% 13.2% 6.8% 15.5%
US Soybean Supply & Demand
(Mln acres/Mln bu.) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 574 205 138 151 215 169 124 169 125
Area Harvested 64.7 75.7 77.5 78.5 75.0 77.2 78.0 76.1 76.2
Yield 41.73 39.73 43.98 43.5 41.9 39.62 42.50 39.62 44.49
Production 2,677 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,269 3,015 3,390
Imports 10 13 15 14 16 20 15 20 15
Total Supply 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,408 3,204 3,530
Exports 1,159 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,345 1,435 1,350 1,450
Crush 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,620 1,680 1,635 1,695
Seed/Feed/Residual 94 106 110 131 90 115 93 95 119
Domestic Consumption 1,897 1,768 1,862 1,779 1,793 1,735 1,773 1,730 1,814
Total Usage 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,279 3,155 3,080 3,208 3,080 3,264
Surplus/Deficit ‐369 ‐67 13 64 ‐46 ‐45 76 ‐45 141
Ending Stocks 205 138 151 215 169 124 200 125 265
Stocks/Usage 6.7% 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.0% 6.3% 4.0% 8.1%
US Wheat Supply & Demand (Mln acres/Mln bu.) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 456 306 656 976 863 743 694 743 731
Area Harvested 51.0 55.7 49.9 47.6 45.7 49.0 46.7 49 47
Yield 40.2 44.9 44.5 46.4 43.8 46.3 43.9 46 44
Production 2,051 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,269 2,050 2,269 2,057
Imports 113 127 119 97 112 130 130 125 130
Total Supply 2,620 2,932 2,993 3,280 2,974 3,142 2,873 3,137 2,918
Exports 1,262 1,015 879 1,289 1,050 1,075 1,075 1,025 925
Feed Consumption 16 255 150 132 163 350 120 360 290
FSI Consumption 1,035 1,005 988 996 1,018 1,023 1,030 1,021 1,032
Total Consumption 1,051 1,260 1,138 1,128 1,181 1,373 1,150 1,381 1,322
Total Usage 2,314 2,275 2,017 2,417 2,231 2,448 2,225 2,406 2,247
Surplus Deficit ‐150 351 318 ‐113 ‐120 ‐49 ‐45 ‐12 ‐60
Ending Stocks 306 656 976 863 743 694 648 731 671
Stocks/Usage 13.2% 28.9% 48.4% 35.7% 33.3% 28.3% 29.1% 30.4% 29.9%
US Cotton Supply & Demand (Mln acres/1000 Bales) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(f) 13/14(f) 12/13(f) 13/14(f)
Beginning Stocks 9,479 10,051 6,337 2,947 2,600 3,350 3,903 3,350 4,000
Area Harvested 10,490 7,569 7,529 10,700 9,462 4,250 3,428 3,793 3,399
Yield 878.9 812.7 777.0 812.2 789.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.1
Production 19,207 12,815 12,188 18,104 15,570 17,000 14,000 17,315 14,000
Imports 12 0 0 9 19 0 1 5 5
Total Supply 28,698 22,866 18,525 21,060 18,189 20,350 17,904 20,670 18,005
Exports 13,634 13,261 12,037 14,376 11,714 12,947 12,000 13,250 11,500
Loss 429 ‐273 ‐9 184 ‐172 0 0 20 5
Use 4,584 3,541 3,550 3,900 3,300 3,500 3,500 3,400 3,500
Total Usage 18,647 16,529 15,578 18,460 14,842 16,447 15,500 16,670 15,005
Net Trade 13,622 13,261 12,037 14,367 11,695 12,947 11,999 13,245 11,495
Surplus/Deficit 572 ‐3,714 ‐3,390 ‐347 747 553 ‐1,499 650 ‐1,000
Ending Stocks 10,051 6,337 2,947 2,600 3,347 3,903 2,404 4,000 3,000
Stocks/Usage 53.9% 38.3% 18.9% 14.1% 22.6% 23.7% 15.5% 24.0% 20.0%
Source: USDA, Rabobank
Rabobank USDA
Rabobank
US Agri Commodity Balance Sheets
USDA
USDA
USDARabobank
Rabobank
May 2013 19
Source: Bloomberg, China General Administration of Customs *Preliminary
Soy oil Coffee Cotton
Sugar Pork Chicken
China's Agri Commodity Imports
Corn Wheat Rice
Soybeans* Edible Vegetable Oils Palm oil
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thou
sand
ton
nes
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Thou
sand
ton
nes
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Thou
sand
ton
nes
10/11 11/12 12/13
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Mill
ion
tonn
es
10/11 11/12 12/13
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thou
sand
ton
nes
10/11 11/12 12/13
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thou
sand
ton
nes
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thou
sand
tonn
es
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thou
sand
tonn
es
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Thou
sand
tonn
es
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Thou
sand
ton
nes
10/11 11/12 12/13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
ton
nes
2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
ton
nes
2011 2012 2013
May 2013 20
* Includes futures and options
Speculator Net Length vs. ICE No.11 Sugar Speculator Net Length vs. ICE Coffee
Speculator Net Length vs. ICE Cocoa Speculator Net Length vs. ICE No.2 Cotton
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Rabobank
Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Oil Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean Meal
Speculator Net Positions*
14-May-13
Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Corn Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Wheat
Speculator Net Length vs. KCBT Wheat Speculator Net Length vs. CBOT Soybean
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
¢ /
bush
el
Tho
usan
d Co
ntra
cts
Speculator (Managed Money & Other Reportables) CBOT Wheat (RHS)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
¢ /
bush
el
Tho
usa
nd C
ontr
acts
Speculator (Managed Money & Other Reportable) CBOT Corn (RHS)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
¢ /
bush
el
Tho
usa
nd C
ontr
acts
Speculator (Managed Money & Other Reportables) KCBT Wheat (RHS)
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
¢ /
bus
hel
Thou
sand
Con
trac
tsSpeculator (Managed Money & Other Reportables) CBOT Soybeans (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US¢
/ l
b
Thou
san
d C
ontr
act
s
Speculator (Managed Money & Other Reportables) CBOT Soybean Oil (RHS)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
¢ /
lb
Tho
usa
nd C
ont
ract
s
Speculator (Managed Money & Other Reportables) CBOT Soybean Meall (RHS)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US¢
/ l
b
Tho
usa
nd C
ontr
act
s
Speculators (Managed Money & Other Reportable) ICE NY No. 11 Sugar (RHS)
60
110
160
210
260
310
360
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US¢
/ lb
Thou
sand
Con
trac
ts
Speculators (Managed Money & Other Reportables) ICE Coffee (RHS)
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
4200
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
$ /
To
nne
Tho
usa
nd C
ont
ract
s
Speculators (Managed Money & Other Reportables) ICE Cocoa (RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
US
¢ /
lb
Tho
usa
nd
Cont
ract
s
Speculators (Managed Money & Other Reportables) ICE Cotton (RHS)
May 2013 21
US Export Sales
Weekly US Corn Export Sales Weekly US Wheat Export Sales (All Wheat)
Source: USDA, Rabobank
Weekly US Hard Red Winter Wheat Export Sales Weekly US Hard Red Spring Wheat Export Sales
Weekly US Soft Red Winter Wheat Export Sales Weekly US Durum Wheat Export Sales
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Millio
n to
nnes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Millio
n to
nnes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Millio
n to
nnes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Thou
sand
ton
nes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Thou
sand
ton
nes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-50
0
50
100
150
Thou
sand
ton
nes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
May 2013 22
US & EU Export Sales
Weekly US Soybean Export Sales Weekly US Soybean Meal Export Sales
Weekly US Soybean Oil Export Sales Weekly US Cotton Export Sales
Weekly EU Wheat Export Licenses Weekly EU Barley Export Licenses
Source: USDA, EU Commission, Rabobank
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Millio
n to
nnes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Thou
sand
ton
nes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Thou
sand
ton
nes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Thou
sand
bal
es
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 Sales 12/13 Sales
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Millio
n to
nnes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average Sales 11/12 12/13 Export Licences
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Thou
sand
ton
nes
5 Yr. Range 5 Yr. Average 11/12 12/13 Sales
May 2013 23
Source: Bloomberg, USDA, Rabobank
Livestock Datapoints
US Broilers Placed for Meat US Eggs Set in Incubators US Cattle on Feed
US Marketings of Fed Cattle US Placements in Feedlots US Hogs and Pigs Inventory
US Pigs Kept for Breeding Brazil Poultry Exports Brazil Beef Exports
US Chicken-to-Corn Price Ratio Historic Cattle Crush Forward Hog Crush
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
chi
cks
2011 2012 2013
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
eggs
2011 2012 2013
10
11
11
12
12
13
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
head
2011 2012 2013
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
head
2011 2012 2013
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
head
2011 2012 2013
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mill
ion
head
2011 2012 2013
5,740
5,760
5,780
5,800
5,820
5,840
5,860
5,880
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Thou
sand
hea
d
2011 2012 2013
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
ton
nes
2011 2012 2013
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Thou
sand
ton
nes
2011 2012 2013
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USd
/lb.
Georgia Dock Whole Bird Chicken-to-corn price ratio (RHS)
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49
USD
/hd
2010/11 2011/12 2012/130
10
20
30
40
50
60
SellingPlacement
Jul-13Feb-13
Oct-13May-13
Jan-14Aug-13
Apr-14Nov-13
Jul-14Feb-14
USD
/hd
May 2013 24
Derivative Markets As of: 23-May-2013
Volatility
Current Close Prev. Mth. Net Chg. Percent Chg. Net Chg. Percent Chg. 90D Historical 1 Mth. Chg. 3 Mth. Implied 1 Mth. Chg. 12 Mth Avg. Impl
12 Mth High Impl.
12 Mth Low Impl.
Grains & Oilseeds
CBOT Wheat US¢/bu 692.75 697.50 -4.8 -0.7% -85.25 -11.0% CBOT Wheat 25.4 1.0 27.5 -0.0 29.2 47.6 21.8
KCBT Wheat US¢/bu 747.00 737.25 9.8 1.3% -84.00 -10.1% KCBT Wheat 24.5 1.9 24.8 0.1 27.4 38.6 21.5
MGE Wheat US¢/bu 808.00 815.25 -7.3 -0.9% -57.50 -6.6% MGE Wheat 20.8 3.1 23.3 0.6 25.3 43.8 18.5
Matif Wheat EUR/t 206.25 241.00 -34.8 -14.4% -44.00 -17.6% Matif Wheat 32.1 13.9 22.7 2.6 23.3 38.3 17.3
CBOT Corn US¢/bu 655.75 638.50 17.3 2.7% -42.50 -6.1% CBOT Corn 31.6 7.5 30.8 2.8 27.9 41.9 19.9
CBOT Soybeans US¢/bu 1,495.00 1,419.75 75.3 5.3% 76.25 5.4% CBOT Soybeans 22.7 3.6 20.7 -0.6 22.8 37.2 17.9
CBOT Soybean Meal USD/st 439.40 411.70 27.7 6.7% 18.80 4.5% CBOT Soybean Meal 31.2 7.9 23.8 0.3 25.1 39.9 20.4
CBOT Soybean Oil USD/lb 49.40 48.57 0.8 1.7% 0.24 0.5% CBOT Soybean Oil 14.6 -2.6 17.4 -0.9 19.5 24.7 16.2
MDEX Palm Oil MYR/t 2,340.00 2,265.00 75.0 3.3% 20.00 0.9% MDEX Palm Oil 18.0 -4.1 - - - - - - - - - -
Matif Rapeseed EUR/t 433.50 482.00 -48.5 -10.1% -22.75 -5.0% Matif Rapeseed 23.3 7.1 16.0 1.8 16.1 21.8 21.8
ICE Canada Canola CAD/t 645.20 639.60 5.6 0.9% 43.40 7.2% ICE Canada Canola 16.1 -1.2 15.7 2.1 15.7 20.5 12.9
Softs
ICE NY No. 11 SugarUS¢/lb 16.66 17.74 -1.1 -6.1% -2.85 -14.6% ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 18.5 -1.5 17.5 -1.1 23.3 31.5 17.6
Liffe No. 5 Sugar USD/t 471.60 504.20 -32.6 -6.5% -52.10 -9.9% Liffe No. 5 Sugar 15.7 -1.6 17.9 -1.3 19.1 22.9 15.2
ICE NY Coffee US¢/lb 128.20 137.55 -9.4 -6.8% -15.60 -10.8% ICE NY Coffee 24.2 -4.1 27.5 -0.4 28.7 36.7 22.3
BM&F Arabica USD/60kg ba 153.05 166.50 -13.5 -8.1% -30.15 -16.5% BM&F Arabica 24.8 -0.0 35.6 2.7 33.3 51.7 22.7
Liffe Robusta Coffee USD/t 1,960.00 1,979.00 -19.0 -1.0% -3.00 -0.2% Liffe Robusta Coffee 16.2 -0.2 19.4 -1.5 24.3 32.9 18.1
ICE NY Cocoa USD/t 2,315.00 2,316.00 -1.0 0.0% 79.00 3.5% ICE NY Cocoa 19.4 -0.7 23.4 -0.7 27.4 37.1 21.0
Liffe Cocoa GBP/t 1,563.00 1,551.00 12.0 0.8% 128.00 8.9% Liffe Cocoa 18.3 1.0 21.6 -0.4 26.4 34.9 20.0
ICE NY No. 2 Cotton US¢/lb 83.40 82.68 0.7 0.9% 8.26 11.0% ICE NY No. 2 Cotton 21.6 3.2 22.7 0.4 25.2 34.1 19.4
Livestock
CME Live Cattle US¢/lb 120.05 126.20 -6.2 -4.9% -9.85 -7.6% CME Live Cattle 13.7 2.0 10.7 11.7 15.1 9.2
CME Feeder Cattle US¢/lb 131.60 133.75 -2.2 -1.6% -19.80 -13.1% CME Feeder Cattle 19.1 2.7 11.5 -1.9 12.3 20.7 9.9
CME Lean Hogs US¢/lb 94.35 87.83 6.5 7.4% 8.62 10.1% CME Lean Hogs 16.7 -1.1 14.9 -2.5 18.0 24.2 14.2
Cash MarketsLast Update Price 1 Wk Chg. 1 Mth Chg. 12 Mth Chg. YTD Chg. Last Update Price 1 Wk Chg. 1 Mth Chg. 12 Mth Chg. YTD Chg.
Milling Wheat Soybeans
22/05/2013 7.59 0.2 -0.05 0.32 -0.92 US (FOB Gulf USD/t) 17/05/2013 593 18.2 26 41 -6
22/05/2013 8.64 0.0 0.27 0.92 -0.47 Argentina (FOB USD/t) 17/05/2013 518 16.8 -6 116 -86
05/09/2012 9.65 -0.3 -0.25 -0.68 -0.23 Brazil (FOB USD/t) 17/05/2013 527 19.2 14 -29 -13
10/05/2013 267 0.0 -1 3 -83 Soybean Meal
22/05/2013 308 -8.0 -16 16 -33 US Hi Pro (FOB USD/ton) 22/05/2013 483 24.1 54 78 46
17/05/2013 238 -8.0 -19 10 -26 Argentina Hi Pro (FOB USD/t) 21/05/2013 522 36.0 48 51 -14
Feed Wheat/Barley Dutch 44-47% (FOB Rot. USD/t) 22/05/2013 535 13.0 38 39 -29
22/05/2013 203.10 -3.0 -23.07 -12.00 -45.42 Vegetable Oils
11/01/2011 260.00 0.0 10.00 89.00 0.00 US Soybean Oil (FOB US¢/lb) 22/05/2013 0.0 -49.6 -48.9 -49.5 -46.2
Corn Brz. Soybean Oil (FOB USD/t) 22/05/2013 992 -3.3 -9 -138 -118
22/05/2013 7.63 0.2 0.55 0.89 0.10 Arg. Soybean Oil (FOB USD/t) 22/05/2013 0 -995.4 -1,001 -1,130 -1,106
17/05/2013 258 3.9 14 4 -24 Soybean Oil (CIF Rot. EUR/t) 22/05/2013 834 -3.0 10 -116 -28
Sugar Rapeseed Oil (CIF Rot. EUR/t) 15/05/2013 855 10.0 -5 -97 -45
18/01/2013 403.8 -3.3 3.5 -144.0 -15.0 CPO (CIF Rot. USD/t) 13/05/2013 855 37.5 18 -258 45
18/01/2013 487.3 -6.5 -4.3 -168.8 -12.5 Mal. CPO (FOB USD/t) 22/05/2013 803 7.5 30 -223 23
18/01/2013 433.8 -2.3 4.5 -150.0 -14.0 Coffee
23/05/2013 3,238 -5.0 -42 107 -208 ICO Coffee Indicator (US¢/lb) 22/05/2013 123.3 -6.5 -9.5 -35.6 -6.1
23/05/2013 3,003 13.0 20 153 -202 Colombian Milds (US¢/lb) 22/05/2013 152.4 -9.3 -13.7 -55.2 -8.7
Cocoa Brazilian Naturals (US¢/lb) 22/05/2013 124.8 -8.5 -11.7 -49.2 -13.0
22/05/2013 2,333 -33.3 1 67 41 Vietnam Robusta (USD/t) 23/05/2013 2,204 -60.6 -67 -225 43
17/05/2013 2,450 -31.0 44 -124 -9 Cotton
17/05/2013 2,563 -30.0 52 -91 24 Cotlook A Index (US¢/lb) 17/05/2013 102.96 -1.9 1.93 8.71 11.52
17/05/2013 2,633 -30.0 42 -76 24 US Middling Avg. (US¢/lb 22/05/2013 91.57 -3.1 -2.55 11.18 8.14
Source: Bloomberg N.B.Cash market prices are indicative only and should not be considered as a reliable source of actual traded prices
Benchmark Agricultural Commodity Prices
World Whites (USD/t)
US SRW (CIF Gulf USD/bu)
US HRW (CIF Gulf USD/bu)
US DNS (CIF PNW USD/bu)
Russia #4 (FOB Novo. USD/t)
French 11% (FOB Rouen USD/t)
German B (CIF Hbg EUR/t)
Ghana (Del. NY USD/t)
Prices Month on Month Year-to-Date
CNF Black Sea (USD/t)
MCXSUGM Comdty
MCXSUGS Comdty
ICCO Cocoa Indicator (USD/t)
Indonesia (Del. NY USD/t)
Ivory Coast (Del. NY USD/t)
Rouen Feed Barley (FOB USD/t)
Ukraine Feed Wheat (USD/t)
US No. 2 (CIF Gulf USD/bu)
Argentine (FOB Up River USD/t)
World Raws (USD/t)
May 2013 25
Source: Bloomberg
CBOT Corn CBOT Wheat KCBT Wheat
Grains & Oilseed Futures Forward Curves
Liffe Wheat ICE Winnipeg Canola Matif Rapeseed
CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybean Oil CBOT Soybean Meal
MGE Wheat Matif Wheat MDEX Palm Oil
500
550
600
650
700
750
US
¢ /
bu
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
670
690
710
730
750
770
790
US
¢ /
bu
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
720
730
740
750
760
770
780
790
800
810
820
US
¢ /
bu
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
US
¢ /
bu
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
47.5
48.0
48.5
49.0
49.5
50.0U
S¢
/ lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
US
D /
ton
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
780
790
800
810
820
830
840
850
860
870
US
¢ /
bu
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
EUR
/ t
onn
e
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
2,250
2,270
2,290
2,310
2,330
2,350
2,370
2,390
2,410
MY
R /
ton
ne
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
GB
P /
ton
ne
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
490
510
530
550
570
590
610
630
650
670
CA
D /
ton
ne
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
EUR
/ t
onn
e
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
May 2013 26
Source: Bloomberg
Liffe Cocoa Liffe Coffee CME Live Cattle
CME Feeder Cattle CME Lean Hogs ICE NY Frozen Concnetrated Orange Juice
Softs & Livestock Futures Forward Curves
ICE NY Sugar ICE NY Coffee ICE NY Cocoa
Liffe Sugar BM&F Arabica Coffee ICE NY Cotton
16
17
18
19
20
21
US
¢ /
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
US
¢ /
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
2,250
2,270
2,290
2,310
2,330
2,350
2,370
2,390
US
D /
ton
ne
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
1,520
1,530
1,540
1,550
1,560
1,570
1,580
1,590
GB
P/t
onn
e
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
1,950
1,970
1,990
2,010
2,030
2,050
2,070
2,090
2,110
2,130
2,150
US
D /
ton
ne
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
US
¢ /
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
130
135
140
145
150
155
US
¢ /
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
US
¢/
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
155
160
165
170
175
180
185U
SD
/ 6
0kg
bag
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
US
¢ /
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
US
D /
ton
ne
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
US
¢ /
lb
Spot 1 Week Ago 1 Mth Ago
May 2013 27
Source: Bloomberg
MGE Wheat Matif Wheat MDEX Palm Oil
Euronext Liffe Wheat ICE Winnipeg Canola Matif Rapeseed
Grains & Oilseed Spot Continuous Prices
CBOT Corn CBOT Wheat KCBT Wheat
CBOT Soybeans CBOT Soybean Oil CBOT Soybean Meal
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
US
¢ /
bu
CBOT Corn 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day mov Avg.
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
US
¢ /
bu
CBOT Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
700
750
800
850
900
950
US
¢ /
bu
KCBT Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
45
47
49
51
53
55
57U
S¢
/ lb
CBOT Soybean Oil 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
US
¢ /
bu
CBOT Soybeans 20 Day Mov Avg.50 Day Mov Avg.
375
395
415
435
455
475
495
515
535
US
D/t
on
CBOT Soybean Meal 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
US
¢ /
bu
MGE Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
EUR
/ to
nn
e
Matif Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
MY
R/
ton
ne
MDEX Palm Oil 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
GB
P/t
onn
e
Liffe Wheat 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
640
650
660
670
CA
D /
ton
ne
ICE Canola 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
EUR
/ t
onn
e
Matif Rapeseed 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
May 2013 28
Source: Bloomberg
Liffe Cocoa Liffe Coffee CME Live Cattle
CME Feeder Cattle CME Lean Hogs ICE NY Frozen Concnetrated Orange Juice
Softs & Livestock Spot Continuous Prices
ICE NY Sugar ICE NY Coffee ICE NY Cocoa
Liffe Sugar BM&F Arabica Coffee ICE NY Cotton
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
US
¢ /
lb
ICE NY No. 11 Sugar 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day mov Avg.
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
US
¢ /
lb
ICE NY Coffee 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
US
D/
ton
ne
ICE NY Cocoa 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
GB
P/
ton
ne
Liffe Cocoa 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
US
D/
ton
ne
Liffe Robusta Coffee 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
US
¢/l
b
CME Live Cattle 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
US
¢/l
b
CME Feeder Cattle 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
70
75
80
85
90
95
US
¢/l
b
CME Lean Hogs 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
US
¢ /
lb
ICE FCOJ 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
470
490
510
530
550
570
590
610
US
D/t
onn
e
Liffe No. 5 Sugar 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
68
73
78
83
88
93
98
US
¢ /
lb
ICE NY No. 2 Cotton 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230U
SD
/60
kg b
ag
BM&F Arabica 20 Day Mov Avg. 50 Day Mov Avg.
May 2013 29
Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Agri Commodity Markets Research (ACMR): Luke Chandler―Global Head +44 20 7664 9676 luke.chandler@rabobank.com AgriMarketsResearch@rabobank.com
Contributing Analysts: Tracey Allen―Sydney, Australia tracey.allen@rabobank.com
Paula Savanti―Buenos Aires, Argentina paula.savanti@rabobank.com
Andy Duff―São Paulo, Brazil andy.duff@rabobank.com
Guilherme Melo―São Paulo, Brazil guilherme.melo@rabobank.com
Renato Rasmussen ―São Paulo, Brazil renato.rasmussen@rabobank.com
Pawan Kumar―Singapore pawan.kumar@rabobank.com
Sterling Liddell―Saint Louis, USA sterling.liddell@raboag.com
www.rabotransact.com
Global Financial Markets Corporate Risk & Treasury Management Contacts: GLOBAL HEAD―Martijn Sorber +31 30 21 69447 martijn.sorber@rabobank.com ASIA―Brandon Ma +852 2103 2688 brandon.ma@rabobank.com AUSTRALIA―Terry Allom +61 2 8115 3103 terry.allom@rabobank.com NETHERLANDS―Arjan Veerhoek +31 30 216 9040 arjan.veerhoek@rabobank.com EUROPE―Eliana de Rossi +44 20 7664 9649 eliana.de.rossi@rabobank.com NORTH AMERICA―David Teakle +1 212 808 6877 david.teakle@rabobank.com SOUTH AMERICA―Mark Yale +1 212 808 6991 mark.yale@rabobank.com
This document is issued by Coöperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen‐Boerenleenbank B.A. incorporated in the Netherlands, trading as Rabobank International (“RI”). RI is authorised by De Nederlandsche Bank and by the Financial Services Authority and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of UK business. This document is directed exclusively to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients. It is not directed at Retail Clients. This document does NOT purport to be an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter and it must not be relied upon by any recipient as an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. No reliance may be placed by a recipient on any representations or statements outside this document (oral or written) by any person which state or imply (or may be reasonably viewed as stating or implying) any such impartiality. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or a commitment by RI or any of its affiliates to enter into a transaction. The information contained in this document is not to be relied upon by the recipient as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient. All opinions expressed in this document are subject to change without notice. Neither RI, nor other legal entities in the group to which it belongs accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Insofar as permitted by the Rules of the Financial Services Authority, RI or other legal entities in the group to which it belongs, their directors, officers and/or employees may have had or have a long or short position and may have traded or acted as principal in the securities described within this document, (or related investments). Further it may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or have provided corporate finance or other services to companies whose securities (or related investments) are described in this document. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and recipients of this document should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, except with the prior written consent of RI. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions. © Rabobank International London Branch, Thames Court, One Queenhithe, London EC4V 3RL +44 (0) 20 7809 3000
top related