adopt: adoption and diffusion outcome prediction tool. geoff kuehne
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Geoff Kuehne (CSIRO) Rick Llewellyn (CSIRO)Perry Dolling (DAFWA) David Pannell (UWA)Roger Wilkinson (VicDPI) Mike Ewing (CRC FFI)
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
• Producing a tool and process to predict likely rate and level of adoption for specific practices
• A tool to help inform R,D & E strategies
• Making adoption and diffusion considerations more available, understandable and applicable
Aims
Inform
Engage
Predict
• Producing a tool and process to predict likely rate and level of adoption for specific practices
• A tool to help inform R,D & E strategies
• Making adoption and diffusion considerations more available, understandable and applicable
Aims
Inform
Engage
Predict
• Producing a tool and process to predict likely rate and level of adoption for specific practices
• A tool to help inform R,D & E strategies
• Making adoption and diffusion considerations more available, understandable and applicable
Aims
Inform
Engage
Predict
What’s wanted
Ongoing demand
Past attempts –
nothing or guesswork
What’s wanted
The Literature
The Literature
Rogers (2003)
Feder & Umali (1993)
Lindner (1987)
Pannell et al. (2006)
Grilliches (1957)
POPULATION
Relative Advantage for the Population
Population-specific influences on the ability to learn about the Innovation
Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
INNOVATION
Relative Advantage for the population
Population-specific influences on the ability to Learn about the innovation
Learnability characteristics of the innovation
Relative Advantage of the innovation LE
ARN
ING
RELATIVE ADVAN
TAGE
Importance of RA
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
22. Ease & convenience
• Ease & Convenience
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
22. Ease & convenience
• Risk
• Risk Orientation
21. Risk
3. Risk orientation
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised
19. Environment
22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk
• Environment
• Time for environmental benefits to be realised
• Environmental orientation
2. Environmental orientation
3. Risk orientation
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual FrameworkRelative Advantage for the Population
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
9. Observability
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
3. Risk orientation
4. Enterprise scale
5. Family succession & management horizon
1. Profit orientation
6. Short-term constraints
2. Environmental orientation
17. Time for profit benefits to be realised
20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised
19. Environment
22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk
16. Profit in years used
18. Profit in Future
• Profit in year used
• Profit in future
• Profit Orientation
• Enterprise scale
• Management Horizon
• Time for Profit benefits to be realised
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual FrameworkRelative Advantage for the Population
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Networks
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
14. Relative upfront cost of innovation
15. Reversibility of innovation
3. Risk orientation
4. Enterprise scale
5. Family succession & management horizon
1. Profit orientation
6. Short-term constraints
2. Environmental orientation
17. Time for profit benefits to be realised
20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised
19. Environment
22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk
16. Profit in years usedInvestment cost
18. Profit in Future
• Relative upfront cost of innovation
• Reversibility of innovation
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual FrameworkRelative Advantage for the Population
Population-specific influences on the ability to learn about the Innovation
Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation Relative
Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Networks
Farmers networks & skills
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
9. Observability
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
14. Relative upfront cost of innovation
15. Reversibility of innovation
3. Risk orientation
4. Enterprise scale
5. Family succession & management horizon
1. Profit orientation
6. Short-term constraints
2. Environmental orientation
17. Time for profit benefits to be realised
20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised
19. Environment
22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk
16. Profit in years usedInvestment cost
18. Profit in Future
Need:
• Consistency
• Direction of relationship
• Data requirements
• Strong influence
• Age – inconsistent
• Education – too hard
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual FrameworkRelative Advantage for the Population
Population-specific influences on the ability to learn about the Innovation
Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation Relative
Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Networks
Farmers networks & skills
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
9. Observability
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
14. Relative upfront cost of innovation
15. Reversibility of innovation
3. Risk orientation
4. Enterprise scale
5. Family succession & management horizon
1. Profit orientation
6. Short-term constraints
2. Environmental orientation
17. Time for profit benefits to be realised
20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised
19. Environment
22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk
16. Profit in years usedInvestment cost
18. Profit in Future
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual FrameworkRelative Advantage for the Population
Population-specific influences on the ability to learn about the Innovation
Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation Relative
Advantage of the Innovation
11.Group involvement
10. Advisory support
12. Relevant existing skills and knowledge
Networks
Farmers networks & skills
Learning of Relative Advantage
Time to Peak Adoption
Trialability of Innovation
8. Innovation complexity
7. Trialing ease
9. Observability
13. Innovation awareness
Relative Advantage
Peak Adoption Level
14. Relative upfront cost of innovation
15. Reversibility of innovation
3. Risk orientation
4. Enterprise scale
5. Family succession & management horizon
1. Profit orientation
6. Short-term constraints
2. Environmental orientation
17. Time for profit benefits to be realised
20. Time for environmental benefits to be realised
19. Environment
22. Ease & convenience 21. Risk
16. Profit in years usedInvestment cost
18. Profit in Future
Example questions
Example entry page
Example entry page
Example entry page
Response choices
Question explanation page
Example equation
Identify relationships
= (varTrialable * weiTrialable +
varInnovationComplexity *
weiInnovationComplexity)/2
Formula for Trialability of Innovation
Profit Advantage =(((varProfitBenefitNow*weiProfitBenefitNow)*(varEnterpriseScale*weiEnterpriseScale)/5)+(1/8*(varProfitBenefitLater*weiProfitBenefitLater)*(varEnterpriseScale*weiEnterpriseScale)*(1/(POWER((1+(varManagementHorizonDiscountFactor)),(varTimetoProfitBenefitYears))))/4.761904762*8))/2
Relative Advantage=(((((varProfitOrientation * weiProfitOrientation)* (varProfitAdvantage * weiProfitAdvantage)))+ ((varRiskOrientation * weiRiskOrientation)/5* (varRiskEffect * weiRiskEffect))+ (varEaseConvenience * weiEaseConvenience)+ (varEnvironmentalAdvantage * weiEnvironmentalAdvantage))- ((varInvestmentCosts*weiInvestmentCosts)*-1+5))/10
Investment Costs =(varUpfrontCosts * weiUpfrontCosts + varReversibility * weiReversibility)/2
FNSK=(=varA+varBOne*(varRESK*weiRESK)+varBTwo*(varNetworks*weiNetworks)+varBThree*(varRESK*weiRESK)*(varNetworks*weiNetworks)
IAwareness=varA+varBOne*(varAwareness*weiAwareness)+varBTwo*(varObservability*weiObservability)+varBThree*(varAwareness*weiAwareness)*(varObservability*weiObservability)
Trialability=(varTrialable * weiTrialable + varInnovationComplexity * weiInnovationComplexity)/2
Learning of RA=((weiTrialabilityInnovation*varTrialabilityInnovation)+(weiFarmersNetworksSkills*varFarmersNetworksSkills)+(weiRelativeAdvantage*varRelativeAdvantage))/3
Envirronmental advantage =(varEnvironmentalBenefits * weiEnvironmentalBenefits ) *(varEnvironmentalOrientation *weiEnvironmentalOrientation)*(1/(POWER((1+(varEnvironmentalCostsBenefitsDiscount)),(varTimetoEnvironmentalBenefitsYears))))/4.761904762
Networks =MIN((varGroupInvolvement*weiGroupInvolvement)+( varAdvisorySupport*weiAdvisorySupport),5)
Peak Adoption=varBaseRate+(varMaxRate-varBaseRate)/(1+EXP(-((varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage)*2-5)))
Time to Peak=(=MAX((-(varSlope*(IF((varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage)<1,1,(varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage))))+varIntercept)+(IF(varUpfrontCosts=5,0,(IF(varUpfrontCosts=4,IF(varShortTermConstraints>=4,0,(varShortTermConstraints*-1+4)/2),((IF(varShortTermConstraints>=4,0,varShortTermConstraints*-1+4)))))*weiShortTermConstraints)-(IF(varAwarenessScore<=2,0,varAwarenessScore-2)*weiAwarenessScore)), 1)
1. Introduction of narrow-leafed lupins
1981
2. Crop/livestock farmers in the central wheat-belt of Western Australia
Output
Output
Output rate & extent
Output extra data
Output relevant info
Output validation
Wongan Hills
Wyalkatchem
Chapman Valley
Corrigin
Lake Grace
Marsh et al. 2004
The rate of adoption calculated was often really slow—depressing! ... It shows good reasoning why it would be slow ...
User feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projectsP
RE
DIC
T
The rate of adoption calculated was often really slow—depressing! ... It shows good reasoning why it would be slow ...
The real value is that it makes you think why we do something – the constraints and leverages.
PR
ED
ICT
INF
OR
MUser feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects
The rate of adoption calculated was often really slow—depressing! ... It shows good reasoning why it would be slow ...
The real value is that it makes you think why we do something – the constraints and leverages.
… responding to the questions made you think, especially about the audience, the social factors and the risk aspects.
PR
ED
ICT
INF
OR
ME
NG
AG
EUser feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects
Future developments
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Relative Advantage for the Population
Population-specific influences on the ability to learn about the Innovation
Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation
Relative Advantage of the Innovation
Difficult to
change
Can be changed by
innovation design
Can be changed by extension effort
Can be changed by
innovation design
Thank You
Geoff Kuehne (CSIRO), Rick Llewellyn (CSIRO)Perry Dolling (DAFWA), David Pannell (UWA)Roger Wilkinson (VicDPI), Mike Ewing (CRC FFI)
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