addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive...
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Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive
capacities
International workshop on “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice
to Policy”11-12 May 2006, New Delhi
Review of studies on coping measures to extreme events
Droughts Floods
Rajasthan Assam
Karnataka UP
AP Bihar
Gujarat Orissa
Chattisgarh
Single stress – climate change
Climate variability and change
Multiple stresses
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•CIDA agr
• APN agr/climate info•OFDA floods/droughts
• WB agr/water
• APN agr/rice-wheat
•Natcom agr/wat/for/health
•Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal
•Natcom coastal/disasters
•Ford SLR•APN glaciers
•WB agr
HadCM2
Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s
Macro-scale modeling approaches highlight vulnerable regions
Climate change and economic changes in India: the impacts on
agriculture• Basic theme:
– climate change does not occur in isolation– globalization can alter vulnerability patterns –
DOUBLE EXPOSURE – agriculture most important sector for India
• Timeframe: February 2001 – March 2004• Funders: Canadian International Development
Agency (CIDA) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Norway
• Partners: TERI, CICERO, IISD, Rutgers University
Elements of vulnerability profilesAdaptive capacity
Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability
Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and fertility
Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure
Globalizationvulnerability
Climate change
vulnerability
Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)
Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)
Village-level case studies – hh surveys + PRAs• coping capacity of communities to current adverse conditions • factors that enhance/constrain adaptive capacity of farmers
Jhalawar, Rajasthan • drought prone• low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure
Chitradurga, Karnataka• water scarcity• proximity to city• contract farming and exports
Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh• semi-arid • response of groundnut farmers to import competition
Jagatsingpur, Orissa• cyclones, river floods• high population density• acute poverty• proximity to port
Raipur, Chattisgarh• rice belt of central India• crop diversification• low literacy, infrastructure
Rainfed farming: Lakhakheri UmatSemi/medium farmers – sale of stocksLandless labourers – seasonal migrationSmall/marginal farmers – temporary coping measuresNo long-term adaptive solutions
Opportunities to diversify Mixed farming:AnghoraAccess to irrigation enhances coping optionsMuch better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)
Broad objectives• Reviewing coping strategies being employed by
communities in India and assessing issues and opportunities for adaptation
» study focus on drought and flood affected regions
» distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities
» links with developmental aspects will be explored
• Assessing the effectiveness with which coping measures are being employed and the factors influencing their implementation
• Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhance adaptive capacities
» Incremental in nature than those currently being employed to cope during with such circumstances
Preliminary discussions and consultations Pennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa, Godavari in Maharashtra
Study regions
AP Vulnerability Index
Focus: Chittoor and Anantapur1991: Anantapur – very high vul & Chittoor – high vul
2001: Shift to high vul in AnantapurKURNOOL
ADILABAD
KHAMMAM
ANANTAPUR
PRAKASAM
CHITTOOR
NELLORECUDDAPAH
MEDAK
GUNTUR
NALGONDA
MAHBUBNAGAR
WARANGAL
KRISHNA
KARIMNAGAR
VISAKHAPATNAM
NIZAMABAD
EAST GODAVARI
RANGAREDDI
SRIKAKULAM
WEST GODAVARI
VIZIANAGARAM
HYDERABAD
Micro-scale, case study based approaches highlight who is more vulnerable and extent of vulnerability
Example of matrix: level 1
Jhalawar Chitradurga Raipur Jagatsingpur
Irrigation
Insurance
Cropping pattern change
Marketing network
Migration
Which coping options are used?
Example of matrix: level 2
Irrigation Insurance Cropping pattern change
Marketing network
Awareness of govt schemes
Education
Land holding size
Community organisation (SHGs/PRIs/NGOs)
Which factors influence the effectiveness of those coping options?
Adaptive capacity influenced by…
• Physical factors– cropping pattern, crop diversification / shift to
resistant varieties or tolerant crops• Socioeconomic factors
– asset ownership – land, house, cattle, pumpsets, tractors, tillers, threshers
– access to public goods & facilities – banking, education and health services
– infrastructural support – irrigation, markets, proper communication network
– alternative employment options
Coping Strategies
• Reactive Coping• Change in cropping intensity• Credits/ loans• Shifting cattle and household
• Proactive Coping • Diversification to non-vulnerable income sources
(aquaculture, tolerant crop varieties….)• House adaptation - platforms• Insurance• Access to Government programs
Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of priority as suggested by villagers
Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of priority as suggested by villagers
Case study in Maharashtra• Developments in the last 15 years
– soil conservation initiatives introduced uphill by the village head
» Includes digging trenches to control soil erosion and develop its fertility
– most villagers not supportive of the fact initially
– interest only in a very small group » Related to threat of water being
utilised uphill further affecting its availability downhill
– actual situation» High rates of run-off from the hillock
surpassing the village, low recharge rates within the domain of that watershed
Picture: World Bank StudyS Bhadwal, 2005
A journey in the past– activities relating to
construction & restoration of tanks taken up
– process for building simultaneous large and small tanks for storage and recharge started
– tanks located downhill one after the other in series
Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005
Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005
Results to be seen..… – benefits in the form of reduced run-off,
increased recharge rates, increase in water tables and recharge of open wells “visible”
– community investments and other bilateral investments for soil conservation efforts and development of tanks started
– situation today………of water tables lying at a depth of 40-50 feet, its availability for irrigation purposes
– checking outward migration– generation of other income generating
opportunities – And more to list…….
Further developments• Proper planning and execution of other plans/
programmes in the village• Setting up of an NGO within the village with
villagers as members» Various village development activities promoted including
education and health centres besides the other development work
» In some cases technical expertise sought from the government bodies, especially the rural development department
• Village regulates its own water usage in line with the crop plans
» Villagers convinced not to grow sugarcane» Cropping patterns changed to onions, maize debarring
sugarcane growth» Crops taken each year based on an annual revisit of the
rainfall situation
Concluding• Strong and purposive leadership in the village
has brought about a transformation……..enhancing the resilience of communities in being able to cope even during drought years
• Examples can be quoted elsewhere in the country where such local level initiatives under strong leadership have been successful
» Tarun Bhagat Sangh and
» Initiatives by Shri Ana Hazare in Raley Gaon Sidhi
• Strong need to understand the processes behind and pose as testimonials
From practices to policy • Varying degrees of vulnerability at the national,
state, district, village and household level• Policy formulation to recognise the differentials• Also, learning's from community initiatives (eg.,
Maharashtra) and need for further successful government initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) to be adopted
• Conditions for replication at different levels needs to be critically analysed
• Synergise with different government policies for different purpose for better fortification of capacities (SGSY, Bharat Nirmaan, IWDP, DPAP etc….)
Thank you.http://www.teriin.org
http://www.teriin.org/coping
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