adapting to climate change: local and global perspectives

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Adapting to Climate Change: Local and Global PerspectivesDr Simon GerrardChief Technical OfficerLow Carbon Innovation Centre

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2ºC

5ºC?

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What effects are predicted?

UKCIP02The UK will continue to get warmerHotter, drier summers with more very hot summer days and droughtsMilder, wetter winters with more bouts of heavy precipitation and floodsSea levels will continue to rise; storm surges becoming more frequent

UK CIP08 scenarios coming soon!

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Impacts in Norfolk

Agriculture; food preparation and storageTourismBuilt environment – working/home/transportOutdoor vs. indoorLogistics and supply chainsFinance - insurance

Living with Climate Change in the East of England. East of England Sustainability Round Table. 2002

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Response of wider systems

SEMBE ScenariosCo-evolution of social, political, economic, technological and environmental driversClimate change, energy security, and fuel poverty are key driversRange of decarbonisation mechanisms

Foresight Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Project (2008). Final Project Report.The Government Office for Science, London.

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Scenarios

Will the world be open, interdependent and multi-lateralin outlook or will fragmentation occur, with strongly independent states or regionsengaging in bi-lateral approaches?

Will the focus of future investments and innovationin the UK favour disruptive new technologies which stimulate new systems, ortechnologies targeted on exploitation of existing systems?

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Norfolk - a resourceful region?

‘Fortress Norfolk’ mentality will help create local focus on energy securityOpportunity for trade in 2nd generation biofuel from agriculture though food supplies take precedenceRetrofitting existing buildings is a major challengeRural characteristics and low population density are beneficial

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Norfolk – a sunshine state?

Local focus is strongSignificant opportunities for innovation (Norwich Research Park; Hethel Engineering Centre etc.)Increased carbon literacy through smart meteringCarbon trading system proposed for Rackheath Eco-town is extended county-wideOpportunity for trade in 2nd generation biofuel from agriculture though food supplies take precedenceNew community structures empower local focus on decision-making

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Norfolk – greener growth?

Norfolk contributes to large scale renewable energy generation (UEA, Rackheath & Power House biomass; offshore wind)Rackheath Eco-town is a demonstrator for the nation, Europe and rest of the worldEco-innovation hub(s) on the Norwich Research Park Stimulated by widespread community engagement, Norwich, market towns and coastal areas are demonstration test-beds for new approaches to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to climate changeNorfolk pride in eco-innovation taken worldwide

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Norfolk – creative carbon?

Carbon capture and storage industry takes off in Norfolk – offshore (gas fields) and onshore (biochar)Carbon management expertise at UEA, Research Park, Hethel provides a focal point.London is the centre of world carbon trading but some carbon specialists in finance industry relocate to Norfolk. Limited opportunity for urban renewal projects (Anglia Square?) for new mixed use developments. New low carbon community at Rackheath inspires others throughout Norfolk.

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Climate Change – Threat or Opportunity?

Need to act nowNorfolk playing catch-up on climate change strategy but is well placed to capitalise on opportunitiesInnovation in energy and agri-sectorsNew opportunities in carbon finance

Significant local threats from sea level rise and floodingAgeing building stock, population and agriculture are vulnerable to hotter summer temperaturesDisruption to global systems (energy, food, supply chains) will impact NorfolkNeed widespread public engagement programme to generate and maintain momentum