adaptation to climate change - management of environmental heat stress
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Adaptation to climate change:
Management of environmental
heat stress
Christine Killip Atmospheric Scientist and
Managing Director of Katestone
Adaptation strategy
• Step 1. Hazard identification
• Step 2. Risk assessment
• Step 3. Risk control options
• Step 4. Recommendations and
implementation strategies
“Adaptation means anticipating the adverse
effects of climate change and taking appropriate
action to prevent or minimise the damage they can
cause” European Commission
Step 1. Hazard identification
What is heat stress ?
• All animals have a need to maintain core body temperature within a small range. – 36.5 to 37.5°C for humans
– 39°C +/- 0.5 to 1.2 °C for cattle
• When the heat load exceeds a certain threshold
• The body’s thermoregulation response is overwhelmed
• Core temperatures increase
External
Temperature
Direct and reflected
radiation
Internal
Metabolic
Muscle work
Conduction
Convection
(passive or forced)
Radiation
Evaporation
Step 2. Risk Assessment
Risk Climate Likelihood Consequence
Influences Responses
Weather events Animal
Health
Financial loss
Compliance
Reputation
The HLI
• The heat load is measured through the HLI (Heat Load
Index)
if BGT < 25°C:
HLI = 1.3 * BGT + 0.28 * RH – WS + 10.66
if BGT > 25°C :
HLI = 1.55 * BGT + 0.38 * RH – 0.5 * WS + e(2.4 - WS) + 8.62
Where:
BGT = Black globe temperature
RH = relative humidity (decimal form)
WS = wind speed (m/s)
Accumulated Heat Load
• The accumulation and dissipation of heat load is defined
by Accumulated Heat Load Units (AHLU)
• Varies with cattle type and feedlot conditions
– Coat colour, health, days on feed, type of feed, acclimatisation
status
– Pen management (manure and water)
• Important process to determine carried over heat
load to the next day
Consequences
• Health and well being of cattle has
significant economic and moral implication
• Heat stress can result in loss of production
and in extreme cases cattle death
• Significant issue for the industry to
manage
• Pen management
– Add shade
– Reduce manure load in pens prior to an event
– Add extra water troughs
• Schedule cattle moves when AHLU is low (not just HLI), move sick cattle to shaded pens
• Change to heat load ration (3 days in advance)
Step 3. Risk control options
Step 4. Recommendations and
implementation
• Education and training
• Standardisation
• Easy access to the right information
• Online RAP
• Site specific forecasts accurate 3-4 days
out (hourly time steps)
Nice images of CHLT
The Katestone forecasting system
World Met Office
(WMO) data store
Worldwide
Millions of sites
Decades of data
Central collection
AWS
Ships
Aircraft
Balloons
Buoys
Satellites
Observations
WRF-ARF
12 Km resolution
Australia wide
4 days in 1 hour intervals
Katestone
(K-WRF)
GFS
Worldwide
0.5 Deg Resolution
7 Days @ 3 hour
intervals
International
Global Model
Dr John Gaughan
Research
Calculate 15 parameters for every hour
for each of the 91 general sites and 119
registered feedlots.
Check for 256 alert thresholds.
Katestone HPC
Forecast pages
CHLT Website
Email and SMS
Alerts
BOM AWS Observations
On site AWS
1. Calc
AHLU
3. Check
forecast
4. Assess
risk
2. Set your
alerts
Has the
adaptation
strategy helped?
Evidence
• Feedlots that followed well documented heat load management plans were able to manage the event
• Feedlots that weren’t as well managed had a higher impacts
• This indicates successfully implementation of an adaptation strategy through: – hazard identification
– risk assessment
– development of control options
• Will provide a good foundation for the industry to manage the potential changes to frequency of extreme events likely as a result of climate change
Thank you
Thanks to MLA for continued
support and the rest of the
Katestone team.
Please e-mail any questions to
christine@katestone.com.au
Katestone
PO Box 2217
Milton, QLD, 4064
References
• Gaughan et al., 2008. A new heat load index for feedlot cattle. Journal of
Animal Science, vol. 86 no. 1 226-234
• Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2010) State of the climate
• Hanna, E.G., Kjellstrom, T., Bennett, C. and Dear, K. (2011) Climate Change
and rising heat: population implications for working people in Australia. Asia
Pacific Journal of Public Health, 23 (2 Suppl.), 14S-26S
• Parson, K (2003) Human Thermal Environments – The effects of hot,
moderate and cold environments on Human Health, Comfort and
Performance. Taylor & Frances, London
• Maloney, S. and Forbes, C. (2011) What effect will a few degrees of climate
change have on human heat balance? Implications for human activity.
International Journal of Biometeorology, 55, 147.
• MLA (2006) Tips and Tools – Heat load in feedlot cattle
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