acceptable change: a case study from the moray firth dr jared wilson marine ornithologist

Acceptable Change: A case study from the Moray Firth

Dr Jared Wilson

Marine Ornithologist

Introduction

1. The Moray Firth wind farms

2. Estimation of effects

3. Acceptable change

1. Moray Firth Wind Farms

BOWL1 wind farm, 140 WTG

MORL3 wind farm, 186 WTG

1. Moray Firth Wind Farms

East Caithness Cliffs SPA• Great black-backed

gull• Herring gull• Puffin• Razorbill• Guillemot• Kittiwake• Fulmar

North Caithness Cliffs SPA• Puffin• Razorbill• Guillemot• Kittiwake• Fulmar

BOWL1 wind farm, 140 WTG

MORL3 wind farms, 186 WTG

2. Estimation of EffectTwo principle mechanisms

Collision mortality • Herring gull • Greater black-backed gull

Displacement reduced productivity • Puffin• Razorbill• Guillemot

2. Estimation of EffectCollision mortality

• Great black-backed & herring gulls

• Abundance based on at-sea survey data

• Estimated using Band Collision Risk Model

• Agreement in use of Option 3 (Extended model, generic flight height data) & 98% Avoidance rate.

Collision mortality ‘common currency’CRMBird ParametersBird LengthWing spanFlight speedNoct ActivityFlap/GlideOption 1, 2, 3Breeding seasonAvoidance RateWindfarm scenarioAnnual CollisionsBreeding Season CollisionsNon breeding season Collisions

Collision Apportioning (summer) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (breeding season) 22.6 22.56 25.43 25.43Boat-based bias 2 11.28 2.00 12.72Prop from SPA 0.50 5.64 0.63 8.05Prop immature birds 0.51 2.88 0.63 5.03Prop adults 0.49 2.76 0.38 3.02exclude sabatical adults 0.35 1.80 0.35 1.96Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 5.6 8.0

Collision Apportioning (winter) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (non-breeding season) 82.63 83.87 83.87Boat-based bias 2 41.32 2 41.94Prop from SPA 0.0136 0.56 0.0136 0.57Prop immature birds 0.51 0.29 0.625 0.36Prop adults 0.49 0.28 0.375 0.14exclude sabatical adults 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.05remove winter influx adults 1 0.18 1remove winter influx immatures 0.5 0.14 0Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 0.56 0.57Total (SPA birds, all age classes) 6.2 8.6

For use with BOWL PVA outputs 6.2 8.6For use with MORL PVA outputs 4.0 5.6

GBBGU, ECC GBBGU, ECCMORL BOWL

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%S3.6, M&T 5MW

105.222.682.6

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%MLS109.325.4383.87

Collision mortality ‘common currency’CRMBird ParametersBird LengthWing spanFlight speedNoct ActivityFlap/GlideOption 1, 2, 3Breeding seasonAvoidance RateWindfarm scenarioAnnual CollisionsBreeding Season CollisionsNon breeding season Collisions

Collision Apportioning (summer) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (breeding season) 22.6 22.56 25.43 25.43Boat-based bias 2 11.28 2.00 12.72Prop from SPA 0.50 5.64 0.63 8.05Prop immature birds 0.51 2.88 0.63 5.03Prop adults 0.49 2.76 0.38 3.02exclude sabatical adults 0.35 1.80 0.35 1.96Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 5.6 8.0

Collision Apportioning (winter) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (non-breeding season) 82.63 83.87 83.87Boat-based bias 2 41.32 2 41.94Prop from SPA 0.0136 0.56 0.0136 0.57Prop immature birds 0.51 0.29 0.625 0.36Prop adults 0.49 0.28 0.375 0.14exclude sabatical adults 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.05remove winter influx adults 1 0.18 1remove winter influx immatures 0.5 0.14 0Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 0.56 0.57Total (SPA birds, all age classes) 6.2 8.6

For use with BOWL PVA outputs 6.2 8.6For use with MORL PVA outputs 4.0 5.6

GBBGU, ECC GBBGU, ECCMORL BOWL

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%S3.6, M&T 5MW

105.222.682.6

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%MLS109.325.4383.87

Collision mortality ‘common currency’CRMBird ParametersBird LengthWing spanFlight speedNoct ActivityFlap/GlideOption 1, 2, 3Breeding seasonAvoidance RateWindfarm scenarioAnnual CollisionsBreeding Season CollisionsNon breeding season Collisions

Collision Apportioning (summer) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (breeding season) 22.6 22.56 25.43 25.43Boat-based bias 2 11.28 2.00 12.72Prop from SPA 0.50 5.64 0.63 8.05Prop immature birds 0.51 2.88 0.63 5.03Prop adults 0.49 2.76 0.38 3.02exclude sabatical adults 0.35 1.80 0.35 1.96Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 5.6 8.0

Collision Apportioning (winter) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (non-breeding season) 82.63 83.87 83.87Boat-based bias 2 41.32 2 41.94Prop from SPA 0.0136 0.56 0.0136 0.57Prop immature birds 0.51 0.29 0.625 0.36Prop adults 0.49 0.28 0.375 0.14exclude sabatical adults 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.05remove winter influx adults 1 0.18 1remove winter influx immatures 0.5 0.14 0Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 0.56 0.57Total (SPA birds, all age classes) 6.2 8.6

For use with BOWL PVA outputs 6.2 8.6For use with MORL PVA outputs 4.0 5.6

GBBGU, ECC GBBGU, ECCMORL BOWL

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%S3.6, M&T 5MW

105.222.682.6

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%MLS109.325.4383.87

Collision mortality ‘common currency’CRMBird ParametersBird LengthWing spanFlight speedNoct ActivityFlap/GlideOption 1, 2, 3Breeding seasonAvoidance RateWindfarm scenarioAnnual CollisionsBreeding Season CollisionsNon breeding season Collisions

Collision Apportioning (summer) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (breeding season) 22.6 22.56 25.43 25.43Boat-based bias 2 11.28 2.00 12.72Prop from SPA 0.50 5.64 0.63 8.05Prop immature birds 0.51 2.88 0.63 5.03Prop adults 0.49 2.76 0.38 3.02exclude sabatical adults 0.35 1.80 0.35 1.96Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 5.6 8.0

Collision Apportioning (winter) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (non-breeding season) 82.63 83.87 83.87Boat-based bias 2 41.32 2 41.94Prop from SPA 0.0136 0.56 0.0136 0.57Prop immature birds 0.51 0.29 0.625 0.36Prop adults 0.49 0.28 0.375 0.14exclude sabatical adults 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.05remove winter influx adults 1 0.18 1remove winter influx immatures 0.5 0.14 0Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 0.56 0.57Total (SPA birds, all age classes) 6.2 8.6

For use with BOWL PVA outputs 6.2 8.6For use with MORL PVA outputs 4.0 5.6

GBBGU, ECC GBBGU, ECCMORL BOWL

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%S3.6, M&T 5MW

105.222.682.6

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%MLS109.325.4383.87

Collision mortality ‘common currency’CRMBird ParametersBird LengthWing spanFlight speedNoct ActivityFlap/GlideOption 1, 2, 3Breeding seasonAvoidance RateWindfarm scenarioAnnual CollisionsBreeding Season CollisionsNon breeding season Collisions

Collision Apportioning (summer) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (breeding season) 22.6 22.56 25.43 25.43Boat-based bias 2 11.28 2.00 12.72Prop from SPA 0.50 5.64 0.63 8.05Prop immature birds 0.51 2.88 0.63 5.03Prop adults 0.49 2.76 0.38 3.02exclude sabatical adults 0.35 1.80 0.35 1.96Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 5.6 8.0

Collision Apportioning (winter) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (non-breeding season) 82.63 83.87 83.87Boat-based bias 2 41.32 2 41.94Prop from SPA 0.0136 0.56 0.0136 0.57Prop immature birds 0.51 0.29 0.625 0.36Prop adults 0.49 0.28 0.375 0.14exclude sabatical adults 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.05remove winter influx adults 1 0.18 1remove winter influx immatures 0.5 0.14 0Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 0.56 0.57Total (SPA birds, all age classes) 6.2 8.6

For use with BOWL PVA outputs 6.2 8.6For use with MORL PVA outputs 4.0 5.6

GBBGU, ECC GBBGU, ECCMORL BOWL

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%S3.6, M&T 5MW

105.222.682.6

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%MLS109.325.4383.87

Collision mortality ‘common currency’CRMBird ParametersBird LengthWing spanFlight speedNoct ActivityFlap/GlideOption 1, 2, 3Breeding seasonAvoidance RateWindfarm scenarioAnnual CollisionsBreeding Season CollisionsNon breeding season Collisions

Collision Apportioning (summer) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (breeding season) 22.6 22.56 25.43 25.43Boat-based bias 2 11.28 2.00 12.72Prop from SPA 0.50 5.64 0.63 8.05Prop immature birds 0.51 2.88 0.63 5.03Prop adults 0.49 2.76 0.38 3.02exclude sabatical adults 0.35 1.80 0.35 1.96Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 5.6 8.0

Collision Apportioning (winter) MORL Running Total BOWL Running TotalCRM collisions (non-breeding season) 82.63 83.87 83.87Boat-based bias 2 41.32 2 41.94Prop from SPA 0.0136 0.56 0.0136 0.57Prop immature birds 0.51 0.29 0.625 0.36Prop adults 0.49 0.28 0.375 0.14exclude sabatical adults 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.05remove winter influx adults 1 0.18 1remove winter influx immatures 0.5 0.14 0Sub-Total SPA birds (breeding season) 0.56 0.57Total (SPA birds, all age classes) 6.2 8.6

For use with BOWL PVA outputs 6.2 8.6For use with MORL PVA outputs 4.0 5.6

GBBGU, ECC GBBGU, ECCMORL BOWL

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%S3.6, M&T 5MW

105.222.682.6

0.711.57513.7

2Flapping

3May-Aug

98%MLS109.325.4383.87

2. Estimation of EffectDisplacement

• Puffin, razorbill & guillemot

• Estimated using at-sea estimates of abundance

• Assumption that impact was reduced productivity.

• To ensure transparency in how displacement effects derived and apporptioned to populations, ‘common currency’ produced.

Displacement ‘common currency’

MORLrunning

total BOWLrunning

total MORLrunning

total BOWLrunning

totalBreeding season months Apr-Jul Apr-Jul Apr-Jul Apr-JulAbundance 2033 389.6 2033 390Mean peak vs mean adjustment 1.0 2033 1 390 1.0 2033 1.0 390All birds/ birds on water adjustment 1.0 2033 1 390 1.0 2033 1.0 390Turnover adjustment 1.0 2033 1 390 1.0 2033 1.0 390Prop displaced 0.6 1220 0.6 234 0.6 1220 0.6 234Prop SPA 0.05 61 0.50 116 0.75 915 0.25 59Prop immature 61 0.35 75 915 0.35 39Prop birds non breeding 0.50 30 0.35 49 0.50 457 0.35 25Total 30 49 457 25

PUFFINECC NCC

Displacement

Displacement ‘common currency’

MORLrunning

total BOWLrunning

total MORLrunning

total BOWLrunning

totalBreeding season months Apr-Jul Apr-Jul Apr-Jul Apr-JulAbundance 2033 389.6 2033 390Mean peak vs mean adjustment 1.0 2033 1 390 1.0 2033 1.0 390All birds/ birds on water adjustment 1.0 2033 1 390 1.0 2033 1.0 390Turnover adjustment 1.0 2033 1 390 1.0 2033 1.0 390Prop displaced 0.6 1220 0.6 234 0.6 1220 0.6 234Prop SPA 0.05 61 0.50 116 0.75 915 0.25 59Prop immature 61 0.35 75 915 0.35 39Prop birds non breeding 0.50 30 0.35 49 0.50 457 0.35 25Total 30 49 457 25

PUFFINECC NCC

Displacement

3. Acceptable Change-Relevant test

No adverse affect on the integrity of the site

Key Conservation ObjectiveFor each species, maintain in the long term the population as a viable component of the site

3. Acceptable ChangeReference population

Historic Forecast

3. Acceptable ChangeReference population

Historic Forecast

3. Acceptable ChangeReference population

Historic Forecast

SPA Designation

Application

Start of Operation

End of Operation

After recovery period

Range of Options available

3. Acceptable ChangeThresholds

Probability of population decline.

Collision mortality

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f d

ecli

ne

Probability of population decline.

Probability of population decline.

Probability of population decline due to collision mortalities.

• For great black-backed gull, in absence of wind farm, population decline of any magnitude a precautionary "likely"

• P of any decline limited to 0.21 (from 0.14)

• Used (2) PVA to identify mortality with a P of decline <0.21 [10 birds all ages]

• Compared with PBR

Probability of population decline due to displacement.

• For puffin, in absence of wind farm, population decline of any magnitude a precautionary “about as likely as not"

• P of any decline limited to 0.28 (from 0.12)

• Used (2) PVA to identify reduction in productivity with P of decline < 0.28 [800 birds displaced]

• Compared with PBR

Uncertainty and Precaution

Range of (un-quantified) uncertainties in estimates of wind farm effects.

Currently limited ability to incorporate uncertainty. Therefore:

• Effects estimated in a precautionary manner.

• Thresholds set in a precautionary manner.

• As uncertainties reduce, appropriate reduction in precaution should also occur.

On-going work e.g. ORJIP will reduce (or quantify) uncertainty.

Summary

1. The Moray Firth

2. Estimation of effects

3. Acceptable change

Dr Jared Wilson

Marine Ornithologist