aapicu annual conference 2014 frank newport gallup editor in chief scottsdale, arizona february 21,...

AAPICUANNUAL CONFERENCE 2014

Frank Newport

Gallup Editor in Chief

Scottsdale, Arizona

February 21, 2014

Copyright © 2014 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

Five Trends That Are Shaping Our Future

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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Rise of Independents

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Rise of Independents Increased polarization among those left

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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Rise of Independents Increased polarization among those left Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as

a distrust of government

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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Rise of Independents Increased polarization among those left Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as

a distrust of government Although military still very positively positioned,

American public’s patience wears thin with longest war in nation’s history

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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Rise of Independents Increased polarization among those left Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as

a distrust of government America involved in the longest war in nation’s history,

and American public's patience wears thin Attempts to address major healthcare issue run into

headwinds – Partly as a distrust of government

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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Rise of Independents Increased polarization among those left Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as

a distrust of government America involved in the longest war in nation’s history,

and American public's patience wears thin Attempts to address major healthcare issue run into

headwinds – Partly as a distrust of government Americans eager for dramatic reforms in way

government works

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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

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II. THE BIG DIALECTIC: PUSH BACK FROM THOSE CONVINCED GOVERNMENT MUST FIX PROBLEMS AND HELP THE DISADVANTAGED

“I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more. That’s why my education reform offers more competition, and more control for schools and states. That’s why we’re getting rid of regulations that don’t work. That’s why our health care law relies on a reformed private market, not a government program.’

“On the other hand, even my Republican friends who complain the most about government spending have supported federally financed roads, and clean energy projects, and federal offices for the folks back home.”

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"With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that help the economy grow.“

"We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well while a growing number of Americans barely get by, or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules.“

“Join me in a national commitment to train 2 million Americans with skills that will lead directly to a job. My administration has already lined up more companies that want to help."

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MAJOR DIVIDING POINTS IN AMERICAN POLITICS

 No gov’t involvement in

fixing problems, economy

Much gov’t involvement in fixing problems,

economy

People free to do what they want morally without social structure and cultural constraints Libertarians Democrats. liberals

Need social and cultural constraints on social structures and moral issues

Republicans, conservatives ?? Populists?

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PROPER ROLE OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

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Republicans Independents Democrats

% % %

5 Gov’t should take active steps in every area to improve life for citizens

8 19 33

4 8 11 25

3 24 28 26

2 29 19 9

1 Gov’t should do only most basic functions 29 22 8

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Age

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III. AS NEVER BEFORE, DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY

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DEMOCRATIC OVER REPUBLICAN GAP: 2013

18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

Leaned Party Identification

1. Social Security and Medicare. 2. Healthcare.3. Funeral industry.4. Religion. 5. Travel and vacation market.6. Legal industry.7. Charity and volunteer work.8. Causes and special interests. 9. Housing industry. 10. Financial advice industry. 11. Dining out industry. 12. Politics.

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BABY BOOM IMPACT: LET ME COUNT THE WAYS

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Age Ethnicity

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III. AS NEVER BEFORE, DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY

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IV. THE CONTINUING IMPACT AND POWER OF RELIGION

1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 9020%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

National Adults

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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS BY AGE

2012

1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

2122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243440%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes, have children No, do not have children

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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS, BY CHILDREN IN HOME

2012

2122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243440%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Married Not married

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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS, BY MARITAL STATUS

2012

1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

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1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits

of religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

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1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

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1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 9015%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%Male Female

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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS, BY GENDER

2012

1. Silver Tsunami2. Marital and fertility patterns3. Increasing market-sensitive innovations of

unbranded religion4. Recognition of well-being and health benefits of

religion5. Migration to more religious states6. Change in relationship between women and

religion7. Democratic embrace of religion

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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE

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I believe in God’s command to “love thy neighbor as thyself.”  I know the version of that Golden Rule is found in every major religion and every set of beliefs -– from Hinduism to Islam to Judaism to the writings of Plato….For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus’s teaching that “for unto whom much is given, much shall be required.”  It mirrors the Islamic belief that those who’ve been blessed have an obligation to use those blessings to help others, or the Jewish doctrine of moderation and consideration for others…..And when I decide to stand up for foreign aid, or prevent atrocities in places like Uganda, or take on issues like human trafficking, it’s not just about strengthening alliances, or promoting democratic values, or projecting American leadership around the world, although it does all those things and it will make us safer and more secure.  It’s also about the biblical call to care for the least of these –- for the poor; for those at the margins of our society. …..

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PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHITE HOUSE PRAYER BREAKFAST, FEBRUARY, 2012

In my moments of prayer, I’m reminded that faith and values play an enormous role in motivating us to solve some of our most urgent problems, in keeping us going when we suffer setbacks, and opening our minds and our hearts to the needs of others….We can’t leave our values at the door…I wake up each morning and I say a brief prayer, and I spend a little time in scripture and devotion. 

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PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHITE HOUSE PRAYER BREAKFAST, FEBRUARY, 2012

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V. 237 YEARS AFTER THE COLONIES UNITED TO FORM A UNION, STATES REMAIN IMMENSELY DIFFERENTIATED ON MANY DIMENSIONS

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Lower expectations?

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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE, COLLEGE, EDUCATION

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Lower expectations? Living at home with deleterious consequences?

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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE, COLLEGE, EDUCATION

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Lower expectations? Living at home with deleterious consequences? College still seen as highly valued, but....

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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE, COLLEGE, EDUCATION

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Lower expectations? Living at home with deleterious consequences? College still seen as highly valued Online education: Threat or menace?

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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE, COLLEGE, EDUCATION

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Lower expectations? Living at home with deleterious consequences? College still seen as highly valued The online threat Choosing and paying for college

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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE, COLLEGE, EDUCATION

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THANK YOU!QUESTIONS?