a process-based model for valuing coastal protection services · 1a. coastal exposure index. 1b....

fabiencousteau.org

A Process-Based Model for Valuing Coastal Protection Services

Greg Guannel, K. Arkema, M. Papenfus, G. Verutes, J. DavisJ. Bernhardt, A. Guerry, C.-K. Kim,M. Ruckelshaus, and J. Toft

SaveGuanaCayReef

NOAA

Miami Herald

Coastal Protection Model in Marine InVEST

Outline

2

1 Coastal protection in Marine InVEST

Theory behind the model

Illustrative example3

Two Types of Hazards

Flooding

Erosion

Coastal Protection Model

Two Types of Habitats

Non-living

Living

Living Habitats

Non-Living Habitats

Spelio

Habitats Characteristics

Inputs

1aCoastal Exposure Index

1bErosion/Inundation Model

• Know the Environment• Generate Scenarios

Coastal Protection Model

Inputs

ozcoast.org

SiteCharacteristics

Storm Characteristics

Management Action

Biotic Features

Coral Cay Conservation

Social Data

Outputs

Inputs

ozcoast.org

SiteCharacteristics

Storm Characteristics

Management Action

Coral Cay Conservation

Social Data

Relative ExposureUSGS

Avoided Eroded & Inundated Area

Short & Long Term Effects of Seawalls

Avoided Property Damage

Avoided Number of People Affected

Outputsa

bBiotic

Features

Erosion/Inundation Model

Steve@Flickr

Define Environment

Public Land Private Land

$$

Define Driving Conditions

Public Land Private Land

$$

Example

Management Action

Off

shor

e Beach15 hrs Storm

Storm SimulationTropical

+ Waves

Extra-Tropical

Big Storm = Increased Water Level

(Non-)Living Habitat Decrease Water Level

Estimate surge from 2D model

Run Storm Surge Model

15 hrs Storm

Hmax=3m

T=8s

BotVegbg

xEC

g DDD −−−=∂

∂ρ

81

Mendez&Losada, 2004

Run Wave Model

Dean&Bender, 2006

Increased Water Level = Erosion/Inundation

Area erodedKriebel and Dean, 1993

(Non-)Living Habitat Provide Protection

ΔErosion=2m or 9m3

Public Land Private Land

Avoided property damages Avoided number of people affected

Avoided beach erosion Avoided re-nourishment cost

Valuation

Property value: $5,000/m2

Nourishment Cost: $5/m3

Property line

Shoreline

Valuation

Valuation

Avoided re-nourishment cost Avoided property damages

NOT TO SCALE

Conclusion

Qualitative and quantitative tools to value services from habitats

Wide variety of marine and coastal habitats can be incorporated

Process-based model estimates erosion and inundation during storms

Plenty of guidance provided to interpret inputs and outputs

Future Steps

Tier1a available February 2011

mymauisunset

Future Steps

Tier1a available February 2011

Tier1b available mid-2011

mymauisunset

Future Steps

Tier1a available February 2011

Tier1b available mid-2011

Guidance and databases

mymauisunset

Questions?

ekidnaworld

Social Variables

What is the land used for?

Where do people live?

Can they evacuate easily?

Incorporation of Man-Made Structures

Amount of overtopping

Stability of wall

Bonus! Long-Terms Impacts

Thom and Shreffler, 1994

+ Erosion of adjacent sites

15 hrs Storm

Hmax=3m

T=8s

BotVegbg

xEC

g DDD −−−=∂

∂ρ

81

Mendez&Losada, 2004

Run Wave Model

Dean&Bender, 2006

SaveGuanaCayReef

NOAA

Miami Herald

S G C R f

1) Relative exposure of this area?1) Relative exposure of this area?

2) Protection value of existing habitats?

34

Coastal Exposure Index

35USGS

A Screening and Evaluation Tool

36USGS

A Screening and Evaluation Tool

37

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Coastal Exposure Index

38

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Coastal Exposure Index

39

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Coastal Exposure Index

40

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Coastal Exposure Index

41

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Coastal Exposure Index

`

42

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Coastal Exposure Index

Estimate Value of Vegetation

Public Land Private LandArea eroded in absence of vegetation: 4 m2/m

Area eroded in presence of vegetation: 2 m2/m

Estimate Avoided Erosion

Area erodedKriebel and Dean, 1993

Public Land Private Land

Increased Water Level = Erosion/Inundation

• Property damages• Number of people affected

• Amount beach lost• Re-nourishment cost

Public Land Private Land

(Non-)Living Habitat Provide Protection

Avoided property damages Avoided number of people affected

Avoided beach erosion Avoided re-nourishment cost

Public Land Private Land

Inputs

ozcoast.org

Physical Characteristics

Storm Characteristics

Management Action

Jakarta Post

HabitatCoral Cay Conservation

Social Data

Outputs

Relative ExposureUSGS

Avoided Eroded and Inundated Area

Coral Cay Conservation

Short & Long Term Effects of Seawalls

Amount of Property Damage

Number of People Affected

Data, Data, Data

Data, Data, Data

Global Bathymetry

Data, Data, Data

Global Bathymetry

Habitats drag and friction coefficients

Data, Data, Data

Global Bathymetry

Habitats drag and friction coefficients

Default beach profiles parameters

53

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

High and consolidated >low and unconsolidated

Index Variables

54

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Index Variables

Stiff & Permanent > Flexible & Dynamic > Nothing

55

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Index Variables

Water goes up: land disappears

56

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Index Variables

Strong winds = higher storm surge & waves, and flying debris

57

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Index Variables

Larger waves cause more erosion

58

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value

Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Index Variables

59

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5

GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,

fiard

Medium cliff, indented

coast

Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain

Cobble beach, estuary,

lagoon, bluff

Barrier beach, sand beach,

mud flat, delta

Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,

coastal forest

High dune,marsh

Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,

gravel, cobble..

Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueShelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value

Index Variables

Data, Data, Data

Global:

Population

Data, Data, Data

Global:

Population

Shoreline

Data, Data, Data

Global:

Population

Shoreline

Shelf position

Data, Data, Data

Global:

Population

Shoreline

Shelf position

Wind statistics

Data, Data, Data

Global:

Population

Shoreline

Shelf position

Wind statistics

Wave statistics

Data, Data, Data

66

Detecting the Presence of Habitats

67

Detecting the Presence of Habitats

VegBotBrkg

xEC

g DDD −−−=∂

∂ρ

81

||21 uNubCF vDρ=

Dissipation of Wave Energy via Drag Force

Bradley & Houser, 2009Kobayashi et al., 1993

68

• 47 studies with 167 data pointsmarsh (21), seagrass (17), kelp (5), and mangrove (4)

46 studies report wave attenuation

• 25 studies with 138 data points to fit Cdmarsh (9), seagrass (12), kelp (2), and mangrove (2)

Meta-analysis of Wave Attenuation

69

Type

Living Habitats

HeightDepth

DiameterRMI2

Extent

Density

Type

Length Height

Type of Vegetation

Non-Living Habitats

Spelio

J. Kitchin

Winds

PD Photos

Waves

Management Action ErosionInundation

FEMA USGS

Winds Waves

ΔInundation ΔErosionManagement

Action

FEMA USGS

PD Photos

Winds Waves

FEMA

ΔInundation

USGS

ΔErosionManagement

Action

Δ=Service

PD Photos

Top 5% wind speeds

Un, Pn

Wind Exposure

Fn

Wind Exposure

Top 5% wind speeds

Un, Pn

Fn

Wind Exposure

Top 5% wind speeds

Un, Pn

∑=

=16

1nnnnSite PFUWiEx

AllSites

SiteSite WiEx

WiExREI =

Fn

Wind Exposure

Top 5% wind speeds

Un, Pn

∑=

=16

1nnnnSite PFUWiEx

Top 5% deep-water wave heights

Wave Exposure

Top 5% deep-water wave heights ∑=

AllSites

SiteSiteWaveExp

PP

∑=%5

25.0Top

Site THP

Wave Exposure

81

Additional Outputs

Type

ExtentHeight:

Depth

Density Diameter

Flexibility

Living Habitats

Under the Hood

Gedney

Conclusion

Value services of habitats that protect against erosion and inundation

Tier1a: Qualitative and quickevaluation tool

Tier 1b: Quantitative process-based model