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2020 Fraser River Sockeye Pre-season Run Size Forecast
with Supplemental Information
Les Jantz on behalf of Yi Xu & Mike Hawkshaw
FORUM Meeting March 10, 2020
Acknowledgements
• Data Contributors – Fisheries Data: Brian Leaf, Scott Decker, Tracy Cone,
Steve Latham, Lucas Pon, Dan Selbie, Jennifer Sandher, Paul Welch, Ryan Galbraith, Doug Lofthouse
– Env Data: David Patterson, Peter Chandler, Roy Hourston, Lu Guan, Michael Malick
• Model Contributors – Catherine Michielsens, Gottfried
Pestal, Bronwyn MacDonald,
Sue Grant, Les Jantz
Outline
• 2020 Forecast Supplement
• Data Updates
• Method Updates
• Results
• Discussion
• Next Steps
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
4
2020 Forecast Supplement
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
Photo: S. Kalyn, 4 Element Photos
5
Marine
2 Winters Freshwater
2 Winters May-June 2018
April-May 2018
Brood Year
July-Oct 2016
July-Oct 2020
April-May 2017
First Winter 2019
Second Winter 2020
June-October 2018
Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds
Return: 4 yrs
Grant & MacDonald: Fraser Sockeye Science Integration 2018, Fraser Panel Feb 2018
2020 Life-History
6
2020 Results
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
7
Migration & Spawning 2016
Neutral
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
Adult Migration Conditions: Lower Fraser River Discharge
8
Low discharge during mainstem migration
Run-timing bars depict 2016 Mission passage with grey lines indicating run-timing group 50% dates
Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada; Pacific Salmon Commission Macdonald 2000; Patterson 2004; Braun et al. 2013
Discharge unlikely to be an issue in 2016
Adult Migration Conditions: 2016 Fraser River Discharge for Early Stuart
9
Early Stuart delay or obstruction due to high flows at Hell’s Gate not a concern in 2016
* Red indicates migration problems, yellow bars indicate potential concern, and green bars indicate no concern
Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada, Pacific Salmon Commission
Adult Migration Conditions: 2016 Fraser River Temperature for Chilko
10
High proportion of Chilko fish experienced warm temps in the
lower Fraser
Daily abundance based on Mission passage estimates
Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada, Pacific Salmon Commission, DFO Environmental Watch
11
Migration & Spawning 2016
Neutral
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
• Neutral discharge
• Warmer temps but no indicators in
juvenile stages
• average water temps on spawning
grounds; good fish condition reported
12
Juvenile Freshwater 2017-2018
Neutral
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Incubation
13 Varied: May warm varied cool
Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
Egg Hatch Fry Emergence Alevin
Fall 2016 Winter 2017 Spring 2017
Egg
Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Fry Rearing
14 varied warm
Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
Fry D/S Littoral Zone Summer to Fall Fry – Limnetic Zone
Spring 2017 Summer 2017 Fall 2017
Varied: May warm
Incubation Conditions: Nadina
15
Data Source: Water Survey of Canada (1975-2016)
16
Juvenile Freshwater 2017-2018
Neutral
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
• Normal freshet
• Generally cooler
• Longer growing season in 2017
• Uncertain impacts of forest fires
• Fry production average in systems
assessed (except Cultus)
17
Smolt Outmigration 2018
Neutral
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Dis
cha
rge (
m3/s
)
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch
May 2018 Max Air Temp
Anomalies
19
Smolt Size at Mission
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
20
Smolt Outmigration 2018
Neutral
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 13 2019
• Normal freshet
• Average smolt body sizes at Mission
• Outmigration timing average
21
Juveniles Marine 2018-2020
Negative
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
Lighthouse Temperatures (Chandler)
2018 = continuation of warm period long-term increasing temperature trend
2014-2016: Marine heat wave; surface and/or subsurface temperatures above normal (relative to 1981-2010 average)
2017: SST ~average, subsurface temperatures (>100 m) anomalously warm 2018: surface/subsurface temperatures near normal until fall, when marine heat
waves observed offshore and on shelf with varying spatial and temporal scales
Temperature Anomalies, Line P (Ross and Robert)
2018 (Sep-Dec)
24
“The Blob”
Indicator of El Niño
Deviations from seasonal average
Reference Period: 1981-2010
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Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder
Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
2019 (Aug-Sep)
25
“The Blob”
Indicator of El Niño
Deviations from seasonal average
Reference Period: 1981-2010
war
me
r co
ole
r
Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder
Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
Image p
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A/E
SR
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B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
2019 (December)
26
“The Blob”
Indicator of El Niño
Deviations from seasonal average
Reference Period: 1981-2010
war
me
r co
ole
r
Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder
Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
Image p
rovid
ed b
y the N
OA
A/E
SR
L P
hysic
al S
cie
nces D
ivis
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Colo
rado fro
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B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
2020 (January)
27
“The Blob”
Indicator of El Niño
Deviations from seasonal average
Reference Period: 1981-2010
war
me
r co
ole
r
Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder
Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
Image p
rovid
ed b
y the N
OA
A/E
SR
L P
hysic
al S
cie
nces D
ivis
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Colo
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B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
CPUE of sockeye salmon in Strait of Georgia 1998-2019
- CPUE for juveniles in 2018 (2020) return was greater than the previous 4 returns for this cycle.
- Size of juveniles above average. Condition was average.
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
29
Juveniles Marine 2018-2020
Negative
• Marine heatwaves continued
• Poorer quality northern zooplankton
dominates
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
30
2020 Results
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
Fraser Sockeye Analytical Program: M. Hawkshaw & Yi Xu
Environmental Watch Program: D. Patterson/K. Robinson/S. Healey
Lakes Research Program: D. Selbie/L. Pon
Mission Smolt Program: J. Tadey
Strait of Georgia Salmon Program: C. Neville
Coastal Salmon: J. King
Ocean Conditions: J. Boldt
31
State of the Salmon Program (SOS): S. Grant/B. MacDonald
Fraser Sockeye Operational Program: S. Decker & B. Leaf (incorporates
information from various First Nation and DFO groups)
Stock ID: S. Latham
Chief Biologist: C. Michielsens
Fraser Sockeye Science Integration Across Salmon Life-History Stages In prep for DFO Technical Report 2019
B. MacDonald & S. Grant, State of the Salmon Program, PST Feb 18 2020
2020 Forecast Data Updates 2019 Forecast 2020 Forecast
Fisheries Data (Brood Year)
Effective Female Spawners 1948-2015 1948-2016
Juveniles 1948-2015 1948-2016
Recruitment 1948-2011 1948-2015
Environmental Data (Brood Year)
Fraser River Discharge 1948-2015 1948-2016
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) 1948-2015 1948-2016
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 1948-2015 1948-2016
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Environmental Co-varies
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Environmental Co-varies
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Method Updates
• New criteria for model selection
– All sibling models applied for all stocks
– Model fit (R2) are calculated and compared with major biological models
𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 = (𝑀𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟𝑅2 − 𝑆𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑅2)/𝑆𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑅2.
– If percentage<0.05 (sibling model R2 is greater than major model R2 or comparable to major model R2) sibling model is applied.
– If percentage>=0.05 (major model has a much greater R2), sibling model is not applied.
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Selected Models
Stock Env-covary model Sibling Model
Early Stuart √ √
Bowron √
Upper Barriere (Fennell)
√
Gates √
Nadina √ √
Pitt √
Scotch
Seymour
Chilko √
Late Stuart √ √
Quesnel √ √
Stellako √
Harrison √ √
Raft √ √
Cultus √ √
Late Shuswap √
Portage
Weaver √ √
Birkenhead √ √
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Chilko • A Larkin model has
outperformed the smolt-adults models in the last several years.
• Has the same rank performance in the most recent full retrospective analysis (Grant et al. 2010)
2020 Sockeye Run Size Forecast
Table
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
2020 Run Size Summary by Run Time Group
Run Time Group
10% 25% 50% 75% 90%
Early Stuart
5,000 8,000 13,000 23,000 33,000
Early Summer
72,000 116,000 218,000 469,000 1,098,000
Summer 169,000 311,000 611,000 1,231,000 2,376,000
Late 28,000 53,000 99,000 190,000 374,000
Total 274,000 488,000 941,000 1,913,000 3,881,000
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Total Sockeye Return 1950-2020
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Productivity
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Chilko
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Chilko
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Chilko
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
Next Steps:
• Retrospective analyses (CSAS)
• Incorporate more environmental variables
• Explore alternative methods (BRT, EDM, etc.)
Outline Data Method Results Discussion Next Steps
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