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1U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
2018 Wind Technologies Market Report: Summary Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
August 2019
2U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
2018 Wind Technologies Market Report
Purpose, Scope, and Data:– Publicly available annual report summarizing key trends in the
U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2018– Scope focuses on land-based wind turbines over 100 kW – Separate DOE-funded reports on distributed and offshore wind– Data sources include EIA, FERC, SEC, AWEA, etc. (see full report)
Report Authors:– Primary authors: Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Berkeley Lab– Contributions from others at Berkeley Lab, Exeter Associates,
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Funded by: U.S. DOE Wind Energy Technologies OfficeAvailable at: http://energy.gov/windreport
3U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Report Contents
• Installation trends
• Industry trends
• Technology trends
• Performance trends
• Cost trends
• Wind power price trends
• Policy and market drivers
• Future outlook
4U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Key Findings
• Wind capacity additions continued at a robust pace in 2018, with significant additional new builds anticipated in near-term in part due to PTC
• Wind has been a significant source of new electric generation capacity additions in the U.S. in recent years
• Supply chain is diverse and multifaceted, with strong domestic content for nacelle assembly, towers, and blades
• Turbine scaling is significantly boosting wind project performance, while the installed cost of wind projects has declined
• Wind power sales prices and levelized cost of energy are at all-time lows, enabling economic competitiveness (with the PTC) despite low gas prices
• Growth beyond current PTC cycle remains uncertain: could be blunted by declining federal tax support, expectations for low natural gas prices and solar costs, and modest electricity demand growth
5U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Installation Trends
6U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Power Additions Continued at a Robust Pace in 2018, with 7,588 MW of New Capacity, Bringing the Total to 96,433 MW
• $11 billion invested in wind power project additions in 2018• Over 80% of new 2018 capacity located in Interior region• Partial repowering trend: 1,312 MW of existing wind plants
retrofitted in 2018
0714212835424956637077849198
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2018
Southeast (annual, left scale)
Northeast (annual, left scale)
Great Lakes (annual, left scale)
West (annual, left scale)
Interior (annual, left scale)
Total U.S. (cumulative, right scale)
Cum
ulat
ive
Capa
city
(GW
)
Ann
ual C
apac
ity
(GW
)
7U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Power Represented 21% of Electric-Generating Capacity Additions in 2018, Behind Solar and Natural Gas
Over the last decade, wind has comprised 28% of total capacity additions nationwide, and a much
higher proportion in some regions of the country
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Tota
l Ann
ual C
apac
ity A
dditi
ons
(GW
)
Wind Solar Other Renewable Gas Coal Other Non-Renewable
Win
d Ca
paci
ty A
dditi
ons
as S
hare
of T
otal
Wind % of Total (right axis)
56%40%
18% 13%
1%
28%
0%
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40%
60%
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100%
Interior Great Lakes West Northeast Southeast U.S. Total
Perc
enta
ge o
f Gen
erat
ion
Capa
city
Addi
tions
(200
9-20
18)
Wind Solar Other Renewable Gas Coal Other Non-Renewable
8U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Globally, the U.S. Ranked 2nd in Annual Wind Power Capacity Additions in 2018, and in Cumulative Wind Power Capacity
• U.S. remains a distant second to China in annual and cumulative capacity• Global wind additions in 2018 were below the 53,500 MW added in 2017 and
the record level of 63,800 MW added in 2015
Annual Capacity (2018, MW)
Cumulative Capacity (end of 2018, MW)
China 23,000 China 211,392 United States 7,588 United States 96,433 Germany 3,371 Germany 59,312 India 2,191 India 35,129 Brazil 1,939 Spain 23,531 United Kingdom 1,901 United Kingdom 20,964 France 1,565 France 15,309 Mexico 929 Brazil 14,707 Sweden 720 Canada 12,816 Canada 566 Italy 9,959 Rest of World 7,545 Rest of World 91,518 TOTAL 51,315 TOTAL 591,069
9U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
0%
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nmar
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Germ
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Spai
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U.K. EU
Swed
en
Rom
ania
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nds
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il
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ey
Belg
ium
Pola
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Unite
d St
ates
Aust
ralia
Fran
ce
Cana
da
Italy
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ico
Indi
a
Chin
a
Win
d Ge
nera
tion
as a
Pro
porti
on o
f To
tal E
lect
ricity
Gen
erat
ion
in 2
018
The United States is Lagging Other Countries in Wind Energy as a Percentage of Electricity Consumption
Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind power capacity at the end of 2018
10U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Geographic Spread of Wind Power Projects Across the United States Is Broad, with the Exception of the Southeast
Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2018
11U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Texas Installed the Most Wind Power Capacity in 2018; 14 States Exceed 10% Wind Energy as Percentage of In-State Generation
2018 Wind Penetration by ISO: SPP: 23.9%; ERCOT: 18.6%; MISO: 7.3%; CAISO: 7.3%; ISO-NE: 2.8%; PJM: 2.7%; NYISO: 2.5%
Installed Capacity (MW) 2018 Wind Generation as a Percentage of:
Annual (2018) Cumulative (end of 2018) In-State Generation In-State Sales Texas 2,359 Texas 24,895 Kansas 36.4% North Dakota 53.5% Iowa 1,120 Iowa 8,421 Iowa 33.7% Kansas 47.1% Colorado 600 Oklahoma 8,072 Oklahoma 31.7% Oklahoma 43.4% Oklahoma 576 California 5,840 North Dakota 25.8% Iowa 43.2% Nebraska 558 Kansas 5,653 South Dakota 24.4% New Mexico 25.6% Kansas 543 Illinois 4,861 Maine 21.0% Wyoming 24.9% Illinois 529 Minnesota 3,778 New Mexico 18.7% South Dakota 21.7% California 330 Colorado 3,703 Minnesota 17.9% Maine 21.0% Indiana 200 Oregon 3,213 Colorado 17.3% Texas 18.6% New York 158 North Dakota 3,155 Texas 15.9% Colorado 17.5% North Dakota 148 Washington 3,076 Vermont 15.8% Minnesota 17.0% Ohio 113 Indiana 2,317 Idaho 14.7% Nebraska 16.9% Montana 105 New York 1,987 Nebraska 14.1% Oregon 15.0% Minnesota 90 Nebraska 1,972 Oregon 11.0% Montana 14.9% New Mexico 51 Michigan 1,904 Wyoming 9.0% Idaho 10.8% Michigan 44 New Mexico 1,732 Montana 7.9% Illinois 9.1% South Dakota 41 Wyoming 1,488 Illinois 6.8% Washington 8.2% Rhode Island 21 Pennsylvania 1,369 California 6.5% Vermont 7.1% Massachusetts 2 South Dakota 1,019 Washington 6.3% Hawaii 5.8% Alaska 1 Idaho 973 Indiana 5.0% Indiana 5.6% Rest of U.S. 0 Rest of U.S. 7,005 Rest of U.S. 1.1% Rest of U.S. 1.5%
TOTAL 7,588 TOTAL 96,433 TOTAL 6.5% TOTAL 7.3%
12U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
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Solar Wind Gas Storage Nuclear Coal Other
Capa
city
in Q
ueue
s at
Yea
r-En
d (G
W)
Entered queues in the year shown
Entered queues in an earlier year
Hatched portion indicates the amount paired with storage (2018 only)
A Record Level of Wind Power Capacity Entered Transmission Interconnection Queues in 2018; Solar and Storage Also Growing
Note: Not all of this capacity will be built
• Hybrid plants with storage represent 20% of solar in queue in 2018, but just 2% of wind in queue is proposed to include storage
• AWEA reports 39 GW of capacity under construction or in advanced development at end of 1Q2019
13U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Larger Amounts of Wind Power Capacity Planned for Southwest Power Pool, Mountain & Midwest Regions; Major Growth in PJM
Note: Not all of this capacity will be built
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SPP Mountain Midwest ERCOT PJM Northwest ISO-NE NYISO California Southeast
Nam
epla
te W
ind
Pow
er C
apac
ity (G
W) Entered queues in 2018
Entered queues in an earlier year
Hatched portion indicates the amount paired with storage
14U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Industry Trends
15U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
GE and Vestas Captured 78% of the U.S. Market in 2018
• Globally, Vestas, Goldwind, Siemens Gamesa, and GE were the top suppliers of wind turbines in 2018
• Chinese suppliers occupied 8 of the top 15 spots in the global ranking, based primarily on sales within their domestic market
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Turb
ine
OEM
U.S
. Mar
ket S
hare
by
MW
Other
REpower
Clipper
Suzlon
Mitsubishi
Goldwind
Acciona
Nordex (Acciona)
Gamesa
Siemens (Gamesa)
GE Wind
Vestas
# of
OEM
s Se
rvin
g >1
% o
f Yea
rly M
arke
t
# of OEMs (right scale)
16U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Domestic Supply Chain for Wind Equipment is Diverse
Note: map not intended to be exhaustive
• Some manufacturers increased the size of their U.S. workforce in 2018 and/or expanded existing facilities, but expectations for significant additional supply-chain expansion have become less optimistic
• Continued near-term expected growth, but strong competitive pressures and expected reduced demand as PTC is phased out
• Two new manufacturing facilities announced with expected online dates in 2019; four facilities stopped serving industry
• Many manufacturers remain; three of the largest OEMs serving U.S. market all have at least one facility
• Wind-related jobs reached a new all-time high, at 114,000
17U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Domestic Manufacturing Capability for Nacelle Assembly, Towers, & Blades Reasonably Well Balanced Against Historical Demand
0
3
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9
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15
18
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Capa
city
(GW
)
Past Projected
Annual installed wind power capacity
Nacelle assembly manufacturing capacity
Tower capacityBlades capacity
18U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Turbine OEM Profitability Has Generally Declined in Most Recent Years, Following Several Years of Recovery Since Low in 2012
-10%
-5%
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10%
15%
20%
Gamesa/SGRE2008-2018
Vestas2008-2018
Nordex2008-2018
Goldwind2008-2018
OEM
Pro
ft M
argi
ns
Solid line with circle markers = EBITDADashed line with square markers = EBIT
19U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
U.S. Is a Net Importer: Imports of Wind Equipment into the United States Are Sizable; Exports Remained Low in 2018
Notes: Figure only includes tracked trade categories; misses other wind-related imports; see full report for the assumptions used to generate this figure
• Exports of wind-powered generating sets = $13 million in 2018• No ability to track other wind-specific exports, but total ‘tower and lattice mast’
exports equaled $29 million
0
1
2
3
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6
7
20062.5 GW
20075.3 GW
20088.4 GW
200910.0 GW
20105.2 GW
20116.8 GW
201213.1 GW
20131.1 GW
20144.9 GW
20158.6 GW
20168.2 GW
20177.0 GW
20187.6 GW
Impo
rts
and
Expo
rts
(Bill
ion
2018
$US) Other wind-related equipment (estimated, 2006−2011)
Wind generators (2012−2018)Wind blades and hubs (2012−2018)Towers (estimated, 2006−2010)Wind-powered generating sets & nacelles (estimated, 2014−2018)
U.S. Imports:
Exports: Wind-powered generating sets
20U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Tracked Wind Equipment Imports in 2018: 44% from Asia, 35% from Europe, 20% from the Americas
Note: Tracked wind-specific equipment includes: wind-powered generating sets, towers, hubs and blades, wind generators and parts
21U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source Markets for Imports Have Varied Over Time, and By Type of Wind Equipment
• Majority of imports of wind-powered generating sets historically from home countries of OEMs, dominated by Europe
• Decline in imports of towers from Asia over time, in part due to tariffs, but rebound in 2018
• Majority of imports of blades & hubs from Asia (especially) China
• Mexico becoming a dominant supplier of generators and parts
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100%
20050.6
20061.5
20072.9
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20101.4
20111.4
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20170.2
20180.2
Expo
rtin
g Co
untr
y (%
of a
nnua
l im
port
s)
Wind-Powered Generating Sets
Germany
Spain
'121.0
'130.3
'140.5
'150.9
'160.9
'170.9
'180.9
Blades & Hubs
Canada
Brazil
Spain
India
China
0%
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100%
'110.5
'120.9
'130.1
'140.3
'150.3
'160.3
'170.2
'180.2
Spain
Canada
Vietnam
Indonesia
S. Korea
Towers
'120.5
'130.2
'140.4
'150.4
'160.4
'170.3
'180.3
Mexico
SerbiaSpain
China
Vietnam
Generators & Parts
Annual Imports(billion 2018$)
22U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Domestic Manufacturing Content is Strong for Nacelle Assembly, Towers, and Blades, but not Equipment Internal to the Nacelle
Domestic Content for 2018 Turbine Installations in the United States:
• Imports occur in untracked trade categories, including many nacelle internals; nacelle internals generally have domestic content of < 20%
Towers Blades & Hubs Nacelle Assembly
75–90% 50–70% > 85%
23U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Project Finance Environment Remained Strong in 2018
• Sponsors raised $6-7 billion of tax equity in 2018• Tax reform legislation contained a number of provisions with implications for
wind finance, but in general those implications have been modest
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Tax Equity Yield (after-tax)
15-Year Debt Interest Rate (after-tax)
15-Year Debt Interest Rate (pre-tax)
24U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Independent Power Producers Own the Majority of Wind Assets Built in 2018
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100%19
9819
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1120
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Other
Publicly Owned Utility (POU)
Investor-Owned Utility (IOU)
Independent Power Producer (IPP)% o
f Cum
ulat
ive
Inst
alle
d Ca
paci
ty
Other: 4 MW (0.1%)POU: 2 MW (0.0%)
IPP:6,073 MW (80.0%)
IOU:1,509 MW
(19.9%)
2018 Capacity byOwner Category
25U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Long-Term Sales to Utilities Remained Most Common Off-Take, but Direct Retail Sales and Merchant Were Significant
• 24% of added wind capacity in 2018 are from direct retail sales; 49% of total wind capacity contracted through PPAs in 2018 involve non-utility buyers
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% o
f Cum
ulat
ive
Inst
alle
d Ca
paci
ty
Merchant/Quasi-Merchant On-Site Direct Retail Power Marketer Undisclosed POU IOU
IOU:2,616 MW
(34%)
Retail:1,794 MW
(24%)
Merchant:1,776 MW
(23%)
Power Marketer212 MW (3%)
POU:923 MW
(12%)
Undisclosed252 MW (3%)
Onsite: 17 MW (0%)
2018 Capacity byOff-Take Category
26U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Technology Trends
27U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Turbine Capacity, Rotor Diameter, and Hub Height Have All Increased Significantly Over the Long Term, and in 2018
0102030405060708090100110120130
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6
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Commercial Operation Year
Average Nameplate Capacity (left scale)Average Rotor Diameter (right scale)Average Hub Height (right scale)
Aver
age
Nam
epla
te C
apac
ity (M
W)
Aver
age
Hub
Heig
ht &
Rot
or D
iam
eter
(m)
28U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Growth in Rotor Diameter and Nameplate Capacity Have Outpaced Growth in Hub Height over the Last Two Decades
Nameplate Capacity
Hub Height
Rotor Diameter
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.6
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apac
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)
Turb
ine
Nam
epla
te C
apac
ity
(% o
f tot
al t
urbi
nes f
or y
ear)
Commercial Operation Year
≥ 3.0 MW2.5−3.0 MW2.0−2.5 MW1.5−2.0 MW1.0−1.5 MW<1.0 MWAverage
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ers)
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ine
Hub
Hei
ght
(% o
f tot
al t
urbi
nes f
or y
ear)
Commercial Operation Year
≥100 m90−100 m80−90 m70−80 m<70 mAverage
0102030405060708090100110120
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Aver
age
Roto
r Dia
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er (m
eter
s)
Turb
ine
Roto
r Dia
met
er
(% o
f tot
al tu
rbin
es fo
r yea
r)
Commercial Operation Year
≥120 m110−120 m100−110 m90−100 m80−90 m70−80 m<70 mAverage
29U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Turbines Originally Designed for Lower Wind Speed Sites Dominate the Market
Specific Power
IEC Class
Specific Power by Selected IEC Class
• Specific power: turbine nameplate capacity divided by swept rotor area; lower specific power leads to higher capacity factors, as shown later
• IEC Class 1/2/3 represent turbines designed originally for high, medium, and low wind speed, respectively
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2018
Aver
age
Spec
ific P
ower
(W/m
2)
Turb
ine
Spec
ific P
ower
(%
of t
otal
turb
ines
for y
ear)
Commercial Operation Year
≥180−200 W/m2≥200−250 W/m2≥250−300 W/m2≥300−350 W/m2≥350−400 W/m2≥400−700 W/m2Average
0%
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2016
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2018
Turb
ine
IEC
Clas
s(%
of t
otal
turb
ines
for y
ear)
Commercial Operation Year
Class 3Class 2/3Class 2Class 1/2Class 1
100
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450
1998
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Ave
rage
Spe
cifi
c Pow
er fo
r IE
C Cl
ass
2, 2
/3, a
nd 3
Win
d Tu
rbin
es (W
/m2)
Commercial Operation Year
IEC Class 2IEC Class 2/3IEC Class 3Avg. Specific Power (all turbines)
30U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Turbines Continued to be Deployed in Somewhat Lower Wind-Speed Sites in 2018
6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8
70
75
80
85
90
95
10019
98−9
9
2000
−01
2002
−03
2004
−05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Pend
ing
Prop
osed
Aver
age
Win
d Sp
eed
at 8
0m (m
/s)
Inde
x of W
ind
Reso
urce
Qua
lity
at 8
0m
(199
8−19
99=1
00)
Commercial Operation Year
Average 80m Wind Resource Quality (left scale)Average 80m Wind Resource Quality for Future ProjectsAverage Wind Speed at 80m (past and future projects, right scale)
31U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Low Specific Power Turbines Are Deployed in Low & High Wind Speeds; Taller Towers More Common in Great Lakes & Northeast
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Lowe
r
Med
ium
High
er
High
est
Lowe
r
Med
ium
High
er
High
est
Lowe
r
Med
ium
High
er
High
est
Estimated Wind Resource Quality at 80 Meters
Specific Power≥250 W/m2
200−<250 W/m2
≥180-<200 W/m2
IEC ClassClass 2, 1/2 and 1Class 2/3Class 3
Perc
ent o
f Tur
bine
s Ins
talle
d With
inEa
ch R
esou
rce C
lass
from
2016
−201
8
Hub Height<90 m90−<100m≥100 m
32U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Power Projects Planned for the Near Future Are Poised to Continue the Trend of Ever-Taller Turbines
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70020
02−0
3
2004
−05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(par
tial)
% o
f FAA
App
licat
ions
> 50
0 Fe
et
Turb
ine
Tip
Heig
ht (f
eet)
Application Year
Median Tip Height (with 25th and 75th percentiles) % of Applications >500 ft (right axis)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
500 510 520 530 540 550 560 570 580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700
Num
ber o
f FAA
App
licat
ions
>500
Fee
t Cu
mul
ativ
e Thr
ough
May
2019
FAA Application Total Height (feet)
WestInteriorSoutheastGreat LakesNortheast
Total turbine heights proposed in FAA applications, over time
Histogram of cumulative FAA applications through May
2019 greater than 500 feet
33U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
A Large Number of Projects Continued to Employ Multiple Turbine Configurations from a Single Turbine Supplier
Note: Turbine configuration = unique combination of hub height, rotor diameter, and/or capacities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010 (n=56)
2011 (n=72)
2012 (n=123)
2013 (n=11)
2014 (n=38)
2015 (n=56)
2016 (n=56)
2017 (n=44)
2018 (n=49)
% o
f All
Proj
ects
(≥6
turb
ines
) Usin
g M
ultip
le
Turb
ine
Conf
igur
atio
ns F
rom
a S
ingl
e O
EM
Commerical Operation Year (n = all projects with ≥6 turbines)
GE WindVestasSiemens GamesaOther OEMs
34U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Through 2018, 23 Projects Have Been Partially Repowered, most of which Feature Larger Rotors and Lower Specific Power
35U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Performance Trends
36U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Capacity Factors Have Increased Significantly Over Time, by Online Date (i.e., Commercial Online Date, COD)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
'98-990.9
'00-010.9
'02-031.7
'04-052.3
20061.6
20075.2
20087.7
20099.7
20104.7
20115.9
201213.6
20131.0
20145.1
20158.3
20168.2
20177.0
Generation-Weighted Average Individual Project
Capa
city
Fac
tor i
n 20
18 (b
y pr
ojec
t CO
D)
37U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Fleet-Wide Average Capacity Factors Have Gradually Increased, Reaching 35% for the First Time in 2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
20000.6
20010.9
20022.7
20033.1
20044.5
20055.1
20068.0
20079.9
200814.9
200923.6
201033.3
201138.5
201244.7
201358.2
201459.4
201564.3
201672.7
201778.6
201886.2
Year:# of GW:
Aver
age
Capa
city
Fac
tor i
n Ca
lend
ar Y
ear
38U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Interior Region Features the Highest Capacity Factors, in Part Reflecting the Strength of the Wind Resource
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%
Northeast723 MW
Southeast381 MW
Great Lakes2,353 MW
West762 MW
Interior24,406 MW
Weighted Average (by region) Weighted Average (total U.S.) Individual Project (by region)
Capa
city
Fac
tor i
n 20
18
Sample includes projects built from 2014-2017
Only projects built from 2014-2017
Projects built from 1998-2017
39U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Time Trends Explained by Competing Influences of Lower Specific Power, Higher Hub Heights, Varying Quality Wind Resource Sites
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%19
98-9
9
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Aver
age
Capa
city
Fac
tor i
n 20
18
Commercial Operation Date
Weighted-Average Capacity Factor in 2018 (left scale) Index of the Inverse of Built Specific Power (right scale) Index of Built Turbine Hub Height (right scale) Index of Built Wind Resource Quality at 80m (right scale)
Inde
xof
Cap
acity
Fac
tor I
nflu
ence
s (19
98-9
9=10
0)
40U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Controlling for Wind Resource Quality and Specific Power Demonstrates Impact of Turbine Evolution
• Turbine design changes are driving capacity factors higher for projects located in given wind resource regimes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Lower16.8 GW
Medium18.9 GW
Higher25.6 GW
Highest24.7 GW
Estimated Wind Resource Quality at Site
Specific Power ≥ 400 (2.9 GW)Specific Power range of 350–400 (6.1 GW)Specific Power range of 300–350 (35.6 GW)Specific Power range of 250–300 (21.7 GW) Specific Power < 250 (19.6 GW)
Aver
age
Capa
city
Fac
tor i
n 20
18
41U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Controlling for Wind Resource Quality and Commercial Operation Date Also Illustrates Impact of Turbine Evolution
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Commercial Operation Date
Highest Wind Resource Quality
Higher Wind Resource Quality
Medium Wind Resource Quality
Lower Wind Resource Quality
Aver
age
Capa
city
Fac
tor i
n 20
18
42U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
First Wave of Partial Repowering Demonstrates Higher Capacity Factors from Lower Specific Power
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Reduction in Specific Power (W/m2)
Perc
enta
ge Po
int I
ncre
ase i
n Ca
pacit
y Fac
tor
• Graphic includes 9 projects totaling 2.2 GW that partially repowered their turbines in 2017, and shows the increase in capacity factor in 2018 (relative to the 4-year average from 2013-2016) as a function of the reduction in average specific power
43U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Curtailment Varies by Region; Was Highest in MISO in 2017, but Highest-Ever in ERCOT in 2009
• In areas where curtailment has been particularly problematic in the past—principally in Texas—steps taken to address the issue have born fruit
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2014-18SPP
2007-18ERCOT
2009-18MISO
2015-18CAISO
2012-18NYISO
2014-18ISO-NE
2012-18PJM
2007-18Total
Win
d Pe
netr
atio
n (a
s a
% o
f loa
d)
Wind Curtailment (left axis)
Wind Penetration (right axis)
Win
d Cu
rtai
lmen
t
44U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Yearly Variations in Average Wind Speed Also Impact Project Performance, but 2018 Was a Reasonably Normal Wind Year
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.319
99
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
WestInteriorGreat LakesNortheastSoutheastNational
Aver
age
Annu
alW
ind
Reso
urce
Indi
ces
(Lon
g-Te
rm A
vera
ge =
1.0
)
45U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Change in Performance as Projects Age Also Impacts Overall Trends; Performance Degradation Shown After Year 10
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
79.5 79.8 71.5 63.3 58.1 57.1 43.5 37.7 32.4 23.2 14.6 8.8 8.0 5.1 4.2 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.8
Median (with 10th/90th percentile error bars) Capacity-Weighted Average
Inde
xed
Capa
city
Fac
tor (
Year
2=1
00%
)
Sample includes projects with COD from 1998 to 2017
Years post-COD:Sample GW:
46U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Cost Trends
47U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Turbine Prices Remained Well Below the Levels Seen a Decade Ago
• Recent turbine orders in the range of $700-900/kW
48U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Lower Turbine Prices Have Driven Reductions in Total Installed Project Costs
• 2018 projects had average cost of $1,470/kW, down ~$1000/kW since 2009-2010• Limited sample of under-construction projects suggest somewhat lower costs in 2019
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,00019
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
18
Inst
alle
d Pr
ojec
t Cos
t (20
18 $
/kW
)
Commercial Operation Date
Interior (54.8 GW) West (12.5 GW) Great Lakes (9.3 GW) Northeast (4.7 GW) Southeast (1.1 GW) Capacity-Weighted Average
49U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Economies of Scale Are Apparent, Especially when Moving from Small- to Medium-Sized Projects
Project Size
Turbine Size
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
≤5 MW33 MW
5-20 MW0 MW
20-50 MW161 MW
50-100 MW220 MW
100-200 MW2,235 MW
>200 MW3,026 MW
Inst
alle
d Pr
ojec
t Cos
t (20
18 $
/kW
)
Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Individual Project Cost
Project size:# of MW:
Sample includes projects built in 2018
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
≥1.5 & <2 MW33 MW
≥2 & <2.5 MW2,813 MW
≥2.5 & <3 MW1,843 MW
≥3 & <3.5 MW987 MW
Inst
alle
d Pr
ojec
t Cos
t (20
18 $
/kW
) Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
Individual Project Cost
Turbine size:# of MW:
Sample includes projects built in 2018
50U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Regional Differences in Average Wind Power Project Costs Are Apparent, but Sample Size Is Limited
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Interior4,559 MW
Great Lakes881 MW
West135 MW
Northeast101 MW
Inst
alle
d Pr
ojec
t Cos
t (20
18 $
/kW
)
Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Individual Project Cost Capacity-Weighted Average Cost, Total U.S.
Sample includes projects built in 2018
51U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Most Projects—and All of the Low-Cost Projects—Are Located in the Interior; Other Regions Have Higher Costs
Note: Only includes 2018 projects
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
Num
ber o
f Pro
ject
s
Installed Cost ≥ (2018 $/kW)
Northeast
Great Lakes
West
Interior
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
Num
ber o
f MW
Installed Cost ≥ (2018 $/kW)
Northeast
Great Lakes
West
Interior
52U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
O&M Costs Vary By Project Age and Commercial Operations Date
Note: Sample is limited; few projects in sample have complete records of O&M costs from 2000-18; O&M costs reported here DO NOT include all operating costs
• Capacity-weighted average 2000-2018 O&M costs for projects built in the 1980s equal $72/kW-year, dropping to $60/kW-year for projects built in the 1990s, to $29/kW-year for projects built in the 2000s and since 2010
53U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
O&M Costs Are Lower for More-Recent Projects, and Increase with Age for the Older Projects
Note: Sample size is limited
• O&M reported in figure does not include all operating costs: recent work by Berkeley Lab suggests all-in operating costs for the most recent wind projects in the United States of ~$40/kW-yr
54U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind Power Price Trends
55U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Sample of Wind Power Sales Prices
• Berkeley Lab collects data on historical wind power sales prices, and long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) prices
• PPA sample includes 448 contracts totaling 42,018 MW from projects built from 1998 to the present, or planned for installation in 2019 or beyond
• Prices reflect the bundled price of electricity and RECs as sold by the project owner under a PPA– Dataset excludes merchant plants, projects that sell renewable energy
certificates (RECs) separately, and direct retail sales
– Prices reflect receipt of state and federal incentives (e.g., the PTC or Treasury grant), as well as various local policy and market influences; as a result, prices do not reflect wind energy generation costs
56U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Wind PPA Prices Are at Historical Lows
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$12019
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
19
PPA Execution Date
Interior (27.7 GW) West (7.4 GW) Great Lakes (4.8 GW) Northeast (1.6 GW) Southeast (0.5 GW)
Leve
lized
PPA
Pric
e (2
018
$/M
Wh)
50 MW
300 MW
57U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
A Smoother Look at the Time Trend Shows a Steep Decline in Pricing Since 2009; Prices Below $20/MWh in Interior Region
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
96-990.6
00-011.2
02-031.4
04-052.2
20062.4
20071.8
20083.5
20094.0
20104.9
20114.6
20121.1
20135.4
20142.2
20153.3
20161.8
20171.5
20180.1
Nationwide All Other Regions Interior
PPA Year:GW:
Aver
age
Leve
lized
PPA
Pric
e (2
018
$/M
Wh)
58U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Recent Wind PPAs Are Priced in the Mid-Teens in Some Cases
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PPA Execution Date
Interior (11.6 GW) West (0.5 GW) Great Lakes (1.7 GW) Northeast (0.6 GW) Southeast (0.2 GW)
Leve
lized
PPA
Pric
e (2
018
$/M
Wh) 80 MW
300 MW
Black line shows nationwide average
59U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Despite Recent Low PPA Prices, Wind Faces Competition from Solar and Natural Gas
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Gas Projection Year and PPA Execution Date
Utility-Scale Solar (252 PPAs totaling 15.7 GW)
Utility-Scale Wind (310 PPAs totaling 32.4 GW)
Leve
lized
PPA
and
Gas
Pri
ce (2
018
$/M
Wh) Levelized 20-year EIA gas price projections
(converted at 7.5 MMBtu/MWh)
60U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Recent Wind Prices Are Competitive with the Expected Future Cost of Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants
• Price comparisons shown are far from perfect—see full report for caveats
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7020
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
3520
3620
3720
3820
3920
4020
4120
4220
4320
4420
4520
4620
4720
4820
4920
50
2018
$/M
Wh
Generation-weighted average wind PPA price among 34 PPAs signed in 2016–2018Median wind PPA price (and 10th/90th percentiles) among 34 PPAs signed in 2016–2018
Range of AEO19 natural gas fuel cost projectionsAEO19 reference case natural gas fuel cost projection
61U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Economic Competitiveness of Wind Power Is Affected by Its Grid-System Value (Energy & Capacity) in Wholesale Markets
• Wholesale market value considers hourly local wholesale energy price and hourly wind output, along with capacity value where available
• Wholesale market value has declined over last decade, but increased in last couple years• Recent wind PPAs are comparable to grid-system market value, with a number of recent
PPAs coming in at a discount relative to wholesale market value estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ISO-NE
CAISO
PJM
NYISO
MISO
SPP
ERCOT
Win
d W
hole
sale
Mar
ket V
alue
and
PPA
Price
s (2
018
$/M
Wh)
Average Levelized Wind PPA Price with 10th/90th Percentiles (by year of PPA execution)
62U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Wholesale Market Value of Wind Energy in 2018 Varied by Region: Lowest in ERCOT, Highest in ISO-NE
energy value
capacity value
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ISO-NE CAISO PJM NYISO MISO SPP ERCOT
Win
d W
hole
sale
Mar
ket
Val
ue in
201
8 (2
018
$/M
Wh)
63U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Wholesale Market Value of Wind Energy in 2018 Varied by Region: Lowest in ERCOT, Highest in ISO-NE
• Market value estimates in 2018 at project level span a wide range, from a low of $7/MWh to a high of $72/MWh, with a median value of $22/MWh
64U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Prices in RPS Compliance Markets Remained Low in 2018
• REC prices vary by: market type (compliance vs. voluntary); geographic region; specific design of state RPS policies
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
PJM
DC DEIL MDNJ OHPA
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
New England
CT MAME NHRI
2018
$/M
Wh
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Texas & Voluntary Market
TXVol. (nat'l)Vol. (west)
65U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Levelized Cost of Wind Energy Is at an All-Time Low: Nationwide Average of $38/MWh for Projects Built in 2018
• Estimates reflect variations in installed cost, capacity factors, operational costs, cost of financing, and project life; include accelerated depreciation but exclude PTC
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
98-990.9
00-011.7
02-031.9
04-052.0
20061.8
20073.6
20086.3
20099.6
20105.1
20116.3
20129.5
20130.9
20145.1
20158.2
20168.2
20175.3
20185.7
Nationwide (82.1 GW) Interior (55.1 GW) Great Lakes (9.4 GW) West (12.0 GW) Northeast (4.6 GW) Southeast (1.1 GW)
COD Year:GW:
Aver
age
LCO
E (2
018
$/M
Wh)
66U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Policy and Market Drivers
67U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) Remains One of the Core Motivators for Wind Power Deployment
• 5-year extension of PTC in 2015, plus guidance allowing 4 years for project completion after the start of construction
• PTC phase-out, with progressive reduction in the value of the credit for projects starting construction after 2016
• PTC phases out in 20%-per-year increments for projects starting construction in 2017 (80% PTC value), 2018 (60%), 2019 (40%)
Legislation Date Enacted
Start of PTC Window
End of PTC Window
Effective PTC Planning Window
(considering lapses and early extensions)
Energy Policy Act of 1992 10/24/1992 1/1/1994 6/30/1999 80 months >5-month lapse before expired PTC was extended
Ticket to Work and Work Incentives Improvement Act of 1999
12/19/1999 7/1/1999 12/31/2001 24 months
>2-month lapse before expired PTC was extended Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act 3/9/2002 1/1/2002 12/31/2003 22 months
>9-month lapse before expired PTC was extended The Working Families Tax Relief Act 10/4/2004 1/1/2004 12/31/2005 15 months
Energy Policy Act of 2005 8/8/2005 1/1/2006 12/31/2007 29 months Tax Relief and Healthcare Act of 2006 12/20/2006 1/1/2008 12/31/2008 24 months
Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 10/3/2008 1/1/2009 12/31/2009 15 months
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 2/17/2009 1/1/2010 12/31/2012 46 months
2-day lapse before expired PTC was extended American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 1/2/2013 1/1/2013 Start construction
by 12/31/2013 12 months (in which to start
construction) >11-month lapse before expired PTC was extended
Tax Increase Prevention Act of 2014 12/19/2014 1/1/2014 Start construction
by 12/31/2014 2 weeks (in which to start
construction) >11-month lapse before expired PTC was extended
Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016 12/18/2015 1/1/2015
Start construction by 12/31/2016
12 months to start construction and receive 100% PTC value
Start construction by 12/31/2017
24 months to start construction and receive 80% PTC value
Start construction by 12/31/2018
36 months to start construction and receive 60% PTC value
Start construction by 12/31/2019
48 months to start construction and receive 40% PTC value
68U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
State Policies Help Direct the Location and Amount of Wind Development, but Wind Growth is Outpacing State Targets
• 29 states and D.C. have mandatory RPS programs, which can support ~5 GW/yr of renewable energy additions on average through 2030 (less for wind specifically)
WI: 10% by 2015
NV: 50% by 2030
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
PA: 18% by 2021NJ: 54.1% by 2031
CT: 44% by 2030
MA: 41.1% by 2030 +1%/yr
ME: 40% by 2017
NM: 80% by 2040 (IOUs)80% by 2050 (co-ops)
CA: 60% by 2030
MN: 26.5% by 2025Xcel: 31.5% by 2020
IA: 105 MW by 1999
MD: 25% by 2020
RI: 38.5% by 2035
HI: 100% by 2045
AZ: 15% by 2025
NY: 50% by 2030
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)20% by 2020 (co-ops)10% by 2020 (munis)
MT: 15% by 2015
DE: 25% by 2026
DC: 100% by 2032
WA: 15% by 2020NH: 25.2% by 2025
OR: 50% by 2040 (large IOUs)5-25% by 2025 (other utilities)
NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)10% by 2018 (co-ops and munis)
IL: 25% by 2026
VT: 75% by 2032
MO: 15% by 2021
OH: 12.5% by 2026
MI: 15% by 2021
69U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
System Operators Are Implementing Methods to Accommodate Increased Penetrations of Wind
Notes: Because methods vary and a consistent set of operational impacts has not been included in each study, results from the different analyses of integration costs are not fully comparable.
Integrating wind energy into power systems is manageable, but not free of additional costs
Transmission Barriers Remain
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Com
plet
ed T
rans
miss
ion
(mile
s/ye
ar)
≥500 kV345 kV≤ 230 kV
70U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Future Outlook
71U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Sizable Wind Additions Anticipated for 2019–2020 Given Federal Tax Incentives; Downturn and Greater Uncertainty Beyond 2020
0
3
6
9
12
1519
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
28
Ann
ual C
apac
ity (G
W)
Historical Wind Power Capacity Additions Forecasts (bar = average)
Analyst projections
72U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Future Outlook, Beyond Current PTC Cycle, is Uncertain
Current Low Prices for Wind, Future Technological Advancement, and Direct Retail Sales May Support Higher Growth in Future, but Headwinds Include:• Phase-out of federal tax incentives
• Continued low natural gas and wholesale electricity prices
• Potential decline in market value as wind penetration increases
• Modest electricity demand growth
• Limited near-term demand from state RPS policies
• Limited transmission infrastructure in some areas
• Growing competition from solar in some regions
73U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
Conclusions
• Wind capacity additions continued at a robust pace in 2018, with significant additional new builds anticipated in near-term in part due to PTC
• Wind has been a significant source of new electric generation capacity additions in the U.S. in recent years
• Supply chain is diverse and multifaceted, with strong domestic content for nacelle assembly, towers, and blades
• Turbine scaling is significantly boosting wind project performance, while the installed cost of wind projects has declined
• Wind power sales prices and levelized cost of energy are at all-time lows, enabling economic competitiveness (with the PTC) despite low gas prices
• Growth beyond current PTC cycle remains uncertain: could be blunted by declining federal tax support, expectations for low natural gas prices and solar costs, and modest electricity demand growth
74U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OFFICE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
For More Information
See full report for additional findings, a discussion of the sources of data used, etc.:
– windreport.lbl.gov
To contact the primary authors:– Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
510-486-5474, RHWiser@lbl.gov– Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
603-795-4937, MABolinger@lbl.gov
Berkeley Lab’s contributions to this report were funded by the Wind Energy Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein.
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